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PONAŠANJE BRODA NA TALASIMA____________________________Uradimo to za sve pravce plovidbe uodnosu na talase...i saberemo verovatnoćen∑μnn∑μ = 180° μ =− 180°( aη) ( aη)V = V ⎡h ⎤+V ⎡h⎤a 1/ 3( μn) 1/3( μn)η ⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦= 0 μ = 0nOdređene su( ϕ) ( ψ)( aζ)V ⎡h13 /( μ) ⎤, V ⎡h13 /( μ) ⎤, V ⎡h13/( μ) ⎤⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦,⎣ ⎦( aη) ( slem)V ⎡h13 /( μ) ⎤, V ⎡h13/( μ)⎤⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦Dobijamo verovatnoću da u zimskimmesecima poprečno ubrzanje neće bitiveće od norme...Postupak treba ponoviti za niz različitihkarakteristika ljuljanja broda, iodgovarajućih normi...U konkretnom primeru, zbogjednostavnosti, analizirano je samo 5karakteristika povorstvenosti:RMS vrednost amplitude valjanja,posrtanja, vertikalnog i poprečnogubrzanja na komandnom mostu, iverovatnoću sleminga...ϕψ , , a , a , V( slem)ζηPREDAVANJA 2009. 251
PONAŠANJE BRODA NA TALASIMA____________________________Verovatnoća da pojedinačna karakteristika ljuljanje broda neće prevazići normu(odnosno da će karakteristike ljuljanja biti manje od maksimalno dozvoljenih),za sve moguće uglove plovidbe broda u odnosu na talase, je tadaμ = 180° μ =− 180°n∑n∑() i() iVi = V ⎡h1/ 3( μn) ⎤+V ⎡h1/3( μn)⎤⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦μ = 0 μ = 0nnVerovatnoća da će sve norme biti zadovoljene jednaka je proizvodu svih verovatnoća, i iznosi∏Ω = V ⋅V ⋅V ⋅⋅⋅= ∏V=1 2 3 ii 1To je tražena operativnost (operaciona efikasnost) brodanU konkretnom primeru, dobija se Ω ≈ 0,72 =72%Toliki procenat vremena brod bi bio u stanju da obavlja predviđenu službu u zimskimmesecima na Severnom Atlantiku...U preostaih 28% slučajeva, kontejneri ne bi mogli biti isporučeni u predviđenom roku...PREDAVANJA 2009. 252
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