evsjv‡`k Dbœq b mgx¶v - BIDS
evsjv‡`k Dbœq b mgx¶v - BIDS evsjv‡`k Dbœq b mgx¶v - BIDS
36evsjv‡`k Dbœqb mgxvwPÎ 3: Ki ivR†¯^i MwZaviv (Ki/wRwWwc-i AbycvZ), 2005-06 †_‡K 2009-10miKv‡ii ivR¯^ msMÖ‡ni aviv †_‡K GUv ¯úó †h, ivR¯^ msMÖ‡n †hLv‡b g~j¨ ms‡hvRb KiI AvqK‡ii Ae`vb µgvš^‡q e„w× cv‡”Q †mLv‡b Avg`vwb ï‡éi Ae`vb µgvš^‡q n«vm cv‡”Q(wPÎ 3)|ga¨ I `xN©‡gqvw` D”P cÖe„w×i nvi AR©‡bi Rb¨ ivR¯^ Avq wRwWwc-i cÖvq 14 kZvsknIqv cÖ‡qvRb| eZ©gv‡b GB nvi cÖvq 10 kZvsk, hv Avgv‡`i cÖwZ‡ekx †`k¸‡jvi ZzjbvqIKg (wPÎ 4)|wPÎ 4: `wY Gwkqvi †`k¸‡jv‡Z Ki/wRwWwc AbycvZwbgœ Ki wRwWwc AbycvZ wb‡`©k K‡i evsjv‡`k GKwU KiwegyL RvwZ| evsjv‡`‡ki cÖe„w×inv‡ii mv‡_ Ki wRwWwcÕi AbycvZ m½wZc~Y© bq| †hLv‡b 2001 A_©eQ‡i Ki wRwWwc-i AbycvZwQj cÖvq 7.8 kZvsk, †mLv‡b GK `kK c‡iI Zv `yB-As‡Ki †KvUv cvi n‡Z cv‡iwb| hw`I†gvU ivR¯^ wRwWwci AbycvZ wKQzUv †ewk (Ki wRwWwcÕi Abycv‡Zi Zzjbvq) A_©vr cÖvq 11.5kZvsk, hvi g‡a¨ Ki ivR¯^ cÖvq 80 kZvsk| `wY Gwkqvi †`k¸‡jvi g‡a¨ evsjv‡`‡k KiivR¯^AbycvZ me‡P‡q Kg| `wY Gwkqvi g‡a¨ gvjØx‡ci Ki-wRwWwc AbycvZ me‡P‡q †ewk,21.7 kZvsk, fvi‡Z G nvi 12.4 kZvsk| evsjv‡`‡k cÖZ¨ Ki †gvU K‡ii cÖvq 25 kZvsk,fvi‡Z G nvi 81 kZvsk| ZvB Ki-wRwWwc AbycvZ e„w× Ki‡Z n‡j cÖZ¨ K‡ii cwigvY e„w×Ki‡Z n‡e|
†nv‡mb I †nv‡mb: ga¨-Av‡qi †`‡k DËi‡Yi cÖZ¨vkvq evsjv‡`k 37evsjv‡`k e¨vs‡Ki GK M‡elYvq (Begum 2006) †`Lv †M‡Q, evsjv‡`‡k Ki gZvim~PK n‡”Q 0.493, hv wb‡`©k K‡i evsjv‡`‡k Ki ivR‡¯^i cy‡iv gZv e¨eüZ nq bv| A_©vrKi ivR¯^ e„w×i gva¨‡g NvUwZ ev‡RU A_©vq‡bi Kvh©Ki gZv i‡q‡Q| GKB M‡elYvq †`Lv†M‡Q, tax bouyancey AbycvZ 1.23, hv wb‡`©k K‡i hw` wRwWwc cÖe„w× 5 kZvsk e„w× cvqZvn‡j Ki e¨e¯’vq †Kv‡bv cwieZ©b QvovB Ki ivR¯^ 6.17 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e|4.1| ivR¯^ Av‡qi cÖ‡cYivR¯^ Av‡qi cÖ‡c‡Yi †‡Î wewfbœ cwimsL¨vwbK †KŠkj i‡q‡Q, hvi g‡a¨ Trendanalysis Ggb GKwU †KŠkj hv AZxZ Z‡_¨i MwZ-cÖK…wZi Dci wbf©i K‡i cÖ‡cY Kiv nq|GB g‡W‡ji mvnv‡h¨ b~¨bZg ch©‡e‡Yi gva¨‡g mn‡R ¯^í‡gqv‡` fv‡jv cÖ‡cY Kiv hvq|GB c×wZi GKwU myweav n‡”Q Gi Rb¨ AwZwi³ †Kv‡bv e¨vL¨vg~jK Pj‡Ki cÖ‡qvRb nq bv|Z‡e GB c×wZi GKwU `ye©jZv n‡jv ‡h ivR¯^ Av‡qi cwieZ©†bi KviY m¤ú‡K© GwU †Zgb Z_¨w`‡Z cv‡i bv|Av‡jvP¨ cÖe‡Ü ivR¯^ Av‡qi cÖ‡c‡Yi †‡Î Linear Autoregressive Model (AR)-GimnvqZv †bIqv n‡q‡Q, KviY Ab¨vb¨ Trend model-Gi †P‡q e¨eüZ g‡WjwUi djvdj AZxZZ‡_¨i mv‡_ AwaK mvgÄm¨c~Y©| e¨eüZ g‡WjwU n‡”Q:ivR¯^ Avq t = β 0 + β 1 ivR¯^ Avq t-1 + ε t ,g‡WjwU OLS Gi gva¨‡g cwigvc Kiv n‡q‡Q|wb‡`©kKmg~n†gvU ivR¯^Ki ivR¯^Ki ewnf~©ZGbweAviKimviwY 5wewfbœ A_©eQ‡ii cÖ‡cYK…Z Ki ivR¯^, 2010-11 †_‡K 2014-15 (wgwjqb UvKv)2007-08 2008-09 2009-10cÖ‡cYcÖK…Z cÖK…Z cÖvK‹jb 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-156053.9 6918.0 7948.4 9123.8 10475.5 12029.9 13817.5 15873.3(11.1) (11.3) (11.5) (11.7) (11.9) (12.0) (12.1) (12.3)4801.2 5552.6 6395.6 7349.4 8447.8 9712.7 11169.4 12846.8(8.8) (9.0) (9.3) (9.4) (9.6) (9.7) (9.8) (9.9)1252.7 1365.4 1552.8 1763.2 2001.8 2272.1 2578.5 2925.8(2.3) (2.2) (2.2) (2.3) (2.3) (2.3) (2.3) (2.3)4597.0 5300.0 6100.0 7010.1 8057.9 9264.4 10653.6 12253.1(8.4) (8.6) (8.8) (9.0) (9.1) (9.2) (9.3) (9.5)Drm: †jLK؇qi wbR¯^ wn‡m‡e wbwY©Z| †bvU: eÜbxi msL¨v¸‡jv n‡jv cÖ‡cYK…Z wRwWwc-i AbycvZ|we`¨gvb Ki e¨e¯’vcbvq hw` eo ai‡bi †Kv‡bv bxwZMZ cwieZ©b bv Av‡m, Z‡e Avgv‡`icÖ‡cY Abyhvqx 2011 A_©eQi †k‡l wRwWwci 9.4 kZvsk Ki ivR¯^ (hvi g‡a¨ GbweAvi KicÖ‡cbK…Z wRwWwc-i 9 kZvsk) Ges †gvU ivR¯^ wRwWwc-i 11.7 kZvsk n‡e e‡j (mviwY5)| 2015 A_©eQ‡i †gvU ivR‡¯^i cwigvY `uvov‡e 15,873 wgwjqb UvKv (hv cÖ‡cYK…ZwRwWwci 12.3 kZvsk) Ges Ki ivR‡¯^i cwigvY n‡e 12,846 wgwjqb UvKv (hv cÖ‡cYK…ZwRwWwci cÖvq 10 kZvsk)| Z‡e ga¨-Av‡qi †`‡k cwiYZ nIqv Ges Ki wRwWwci AbycvZ
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†nv‡mb I †nv‡mb: ga¨-Av‡qi †`‡k DËi‡Yi cÖZ¨vkvq <strong>evsjv‡`k</strong> 37<strong>evsjv‡`k</strong> e¨vs‡Ki GK M‡elYvq (Begum 2006) †`Lv †M‡Q, evsjv‡`‡k Ki gZvim~PK n‡”Q 0.493, hv wb‡`©k K‡i evsjv‡`‡k Ki ivR‡¯^i cy‡iv gZv e¨eüZ nq bv| A_©vrKi ivR¯^ e„w×i gva¨‡g NvUwZ ev‡RU A_©vq‡bi Kvh©Ki gZv i‡q‡Q| GKB M‡elYvq †`Lv†M‡Q, tax bouyancey AbycvZ 1.23, hv wb‡`©k K‡i hw` wRwWwc cÖe„w× 5 kZvsk e„w× cvqZvn‡j Ki e¨e¯’vq †Kv‡bv cwieZ©b QvovB Ki ivR¯^ 6.17 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e|4.1| ivR¯^ Av‡qi cÖ‡cYivR¯^ Av‡qi cÖ‡c‡Yi †‡Î wewfbœ cwimsL¨vwbK †KŠkj i‡q‡Q, hvi g‡a¨ Trendanalysis Ggb GKwU †KŠkj hv AZxZ Z‡_¨i MwZ-cÖK…wZi Dci wbf©i K‡i cÖ‡cY Kiv nq|GB g‡W‡ji mvnv‡h¨ b~¨bZg ch©‡e‡Yi gva¨‡g mn‡R ¯^í‡gqv‡` fv‡jv cÖ‡cY Kiv hvq|GB c×wZi GKwU myweav n‡”Q Gi Rb¨ AwZwi³ †Kv‡bv e¨vL¨vg~jK Pj‡Ki cÖ‡qvRb nq bv|Z‡e GB c×wZi GKwU `ye©jZv n‡jv ‡h ivR¯^ Av‡qi cwieZ©†bi KviY m¤ú‡K© GwU †Zgb Z_¨w`‡Z cv‡i bv|Av‡jvP¨ cÖe‡Ü ivR¯^ Av‡qi cÖ‡c‡Yi †‡Î Linear Autoregressive Model (AR)-GimnvqZv †bIqv n‡q‡Q, KviY Ab¨vb¨ Trend model-Gi †P‡q e¨eüZ g‡WjwUi djvdj AZxZZ‡_¨i mv‡_ AwaK mvgÄm¨c~Y©| e¨eüZ g‡WjwU n‡”Q:ivR¯^ Avq t = β 0 + β 1 ivR¯^ Avq t-1 + ε t ,g‡WjwU OLS Gi gva¨‡g cwigvc Kiv n‡q‡Q|wb‡`©kKmg~n†gvU ivR¯^Ki ivR¯^Ki ewnf~©ZGbweAviKimviwY 5wewfbœ A_©eQ‡ii cÖ‡cYK…Z Ki ivR¯^, 2010-11 †_‡K 2014-15 (wgwjqb UvKv)2007-08 2008-09 2009-10cÖ‡cYcÖK…Z cÖK…Z cÖvK‹jb 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-156053.9 6918.0 7948.4 9123.8 10475.5 12029.9 13817.5 15873.3(11.1) (11.3) (11.5) (11.7) (11.9) (12.0) (12.1) (12.3)4801.2 5552.6 6395.6 7349.4 8447.8 9712.7 11169.4 12846.8(8.8) (9.0) (9.3) (9.4) (9.6) (9.7) (9.8) (9.9)1252.7 1365.4 1552.8 1763.2 2001.8 2272.1 2578.5 2925.8(2.3) (2.2) (2.2) (2.3) (2.3) (2.3) (2.3) (2.3)4597.0 5300.0 6100.0 7010.1 8057.9 9264.4 10653.6 12253.1(8.4) (8.6) (8.8) (9.0) (9.1) (9.2) (9.3) (9.5)Drm: †jLK؇qi wbR¯^ wn‡m‡e wbwY©Z| †bvU: eÜbxi msL¨v¸‡jv n‡jv cÖ‡cYK…Z wRwWwc-i AbycvZ|we`¨gvb Ki e¨e¯’vcbvq hw` eo ai‡bi †Kv‡bv bxwZMZ cwieZ©b bv Av‡m, Z‡e Avgv‡`icÖ‡cY Abyhvqx 2011 A_©eQi †k‡l wRwWwci 9.4 kZvsk Ki ivR¯^ (hvi g‡a¨ GbweAvi KicÖ‡cbK…Z wRwWwc-i 9 kZvsk) Ges †gvU ivR¯^ wRwWwc-i 11.7 kZvsk n‡e e‡j (mviwY5)| 2015 A_©eQ‡i †gvU ivR‡¯^i cwigvY `uvov‡e 15,873 wgwjqb UvKv (hv cÖ‡cYK…ZwRwWwci 12.3 kZvsk) Ges Ki ivR‡¯^i cwigvY n‡e 12,846 wgwjqb UvKv (hv cÖ‡cYK…ZwRwWwci cÖvq 10 kZvsk)| Z‡e ga¨-Av‡qi †`‡k cwiYZ nIqv Ges Ki wRwWwci AbycvZ
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