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1( = @ 1( > 2( > 3( 4( > 2( 45 % @ @ > > > @ > > = > 1( 180 2( 162 3 ...

1( = @ 1( > 2( > 3( 4( > 2( 45 % @ @ > > > @ > > = > 1( 180 2( 162 3 ...

1( = @ 1( > 2( > 3( 4( > 2( 45 % @ @ > > > @ > > = > 1( 180 2( 162 3 ...

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65 4 1 33P(W 1 ) =7 3 2 4P(B1 ) =47 : W 1 ( (1 : W 2: B 1P(W2) = P(W 1)⋅ P(W2/ W 1)+ P(B1)⋅ P(W2/ B1)3 5 4 4 15 + 16 31P(W2) = × + × = =7 8 7 8 56 563 5×P(W 1)⋅ P(W1/ W2) 7 8 15P(W2 / W 1)== =P(W2) 31 3156: (: (2P(S i ) ⋅ P(A /S i ) 0/3 × 0/3 0/09P (S i / A) === = 0/36k0/3 × 0/3 + 0/7×0/2 0/09 + 0/14∑ P(S i ) ⋅ P(A / S i )i=1

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