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R. Pašičko, D. Kajba, J. Domac: KONKURENTNOST ŠUMSKE BIOMASE U HRVATSKOJ U UVJETIMA ... Šumarski list br. 7–8, CXXXIII (2009), 425-438<br />
The article presents a mathematical economic model which explores the impact<br />
of CO 2<br />
prices on investment decisions related to the construction of new<br />
electrical power plants or a change of fuels in the existing plants. The model<br />
determines emissions allowance prices at which biomass becomes more competitive<br />
than other technologies. Changes in CO 2<br />
prices affect short run marginal<br />
costs (SRMC) and long run marginal costs (LRMC) of electrical energy<br />
production, where a decision on the replacement of fuel in the existing plant<br />
depends on trends in short run marginal costs, whereas an investment decision<br />
to construct new electrical plants depends on long run marginal costs.<br />
According to the results of the applied model, biomass fuel in the existing<br />
plants (comparison of SRMC) is more competitive than gas even with minimal<br />
biomass prices and no additional CO 2<br />
allowance price or feed-in tariffs. With<br />
CO 2<br />
prices larger than 26 €/t CO 2<br />
, biomass becomes more competitive than<br />
gas and coal for its minimal price, while for its maximal price it is more competitive<br />
at CO 2<br />
prices larger than 21 €/t CO 2<br />
.<br />
Key words: forest biomass, EU ETS scheme, short run (SRMC) and<br />
long run marginal costs (LRMC), Croatia<br />
438
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