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A. Juriˇ<strong>si</strong>ć in V. Batagelj: Verjetnostni račun in statistika 321 ✬ ✫ Vzorčno povprečje in normalna porazdelitev Naj bo X : N(µ, σ). Tedaj je n i=1 Xi : N(nµ, σ √ n) in dalje X : N(µ, σ/ √ n). Tedaj je vzorčna statistika Z = X − µ √ n : N(0, 1) σ Kaj pa če porazdelitev X ni normalna? Izračun porazdelitve se lahko zelo zaplete. Toda pri večjih vzorcih (n > 30), lahko uporabimo centralni limitni izrek, ki zagotavlja, da je spremenljivka Z porazdeljena skoraj standardizirano normalno. Vzorčno povprečje X = σ √ n Z + µ ima tedaj porazdelitev pribliˇzno N(µ, σ/ √ n). Univerza v Ljubljani ▲ ❙ ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ❙ ▲ ▲ ☛ ✖ ✩ ✪
A. Juriˇ<strong>si</strong>ć in V. Batagelj: Verjetnostni račun in statistika 322 ✬ ✫ Zgled Odgovorimo na vpraˇsanje: Kolikˇsna je verjetnost, da bo pri 36 metih igralne kocke povprečno ˇstevilo pik večje ali enako 4 ? X je slučajna spremenljivka z vrednostmi 1,2,3,4,5,6 in verjetnostmi 1/6. Zanjo je µ = 3, 5 in standardni odklon σ = 1, 7. Vseh 36 ponovitev meta lahko obravnavamo kot slučajni vzorec velikost 36. Tedaj je P (X ≥ 4) = P (Z ≥ (4 − µ) √ n/σ) = P (Z ≥ 1, 75) ≈ 0, 04. > x m s z p cbind(m,s,z,p) m s z p [1,] 3.5 1.707825 1.75662 0.03949129 Univerza v Ljubljani ▲ ❙ ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ❙ ▲ ▲ ☛ ✖ ✩ ✪
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✬ ✫ Ljubljana, 6. oktober 2008
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A. Juriˇsić in V. Batagelj: Verje
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