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D. MARINKOVIĆ et al.: MOTOR FUEL CONSUMPTION IN SERBIA Hem. ind. 66 (3) 413–423 (2012) CONCLUSION The development of model for the prediction of consumption of motor fuels was based on the conclusion of many authors that between the energy consumption and economic growth exists a linear correlation, which primarily refers to low and middle income countries, such as Serbia. However, although the linear correlation showed good agreement between GDP PPPPC and fuel consumption (in the control period from 2001 to 2009), the correction is carried out in order to get more reliable information about future consumption. The literature states that middle income countries follow a linear correlation, and as the amount of income increases, it results in slight saturation of energy. It is believed that, in the future, Serbia’s GDP will record considerable growth. Such growth would make Serbia introduced, just before the end of the observation period (2010–2025), in the group of countries with high income, according to the current classification of the World Bank. This means that the model based on a modified linear interdependence would still be applicable. Taking into account all the above, a model was developed, which predicts results for overall consumption of motor fuels in Serbia, as well as gasoline, diesel and LPG fuel individually, in the time interval from 2010 to 2025. The model results indicate that the total consumption of motor fuels in the period until 2025 in Serbia will grow, but with a saturation tendency. The total consumption in Serbia in 2025 will be 47% higher than in 2001, and 26.5% higher than in 2010; and it will go from 2.36 Mt in 2010 to 2.99 Mt in 2025. Consumption of diesel fuel will have a similar development trend like the total consumption, but with fewer saturation tendencies. This fuel has greater increases in consumption in relation to all derivates overall, from 2001 to 2025 consumption will increase for about 82%. Looking at the period from 2010 to 2025 this increase will be 40%; from 1.43 to 2 Mt, respectively. Consumption of motor gasoline will record a declining trend or stagnation until the period 2015–2016, when it should start to grow again moderately. This stagnation will result in a drop of consumption in the period 2001–2016 as much as 42%. The period after 2015–2016 follows recovery and increase consumption of about 7.5%. Looking at the whole period 2001–2025 there will be a decline in consumption of about 46%. In the year of minimum consumption (2016) it will amount to 516.5 Kt, while by 2025 it will rise to 555 Kt. Finally, consumption of LPG in Serbia will keep the trend of dynamic growth until 2012, during the period from 2012 to 2015–2016 should come to a slowdown in demand, so by 2017 consumption will fully enter into the saturation phase. During a very intense consumption period (2001–2010), the increase was greater than 550% and would be 422 followed by saturation until 2025. Total increase in LPG consumption in the whole period will be at about 670%. From 2010 to 2025 consumption will move from 376 to 435 Kt, respectively. Acknowledgment These results are part of the project No. 45001, supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia. Useful suggestions and comments from a referee of this journal are greatly appreciated. REFERENCES [1] M. Belhaj, Vehicle and fuel demand in Marocco, Energ. Policy 30 (2002) 1163–1171. [2] R. Hannesson, Energy and GDP growth, Int. J. Energ. Sect. Manage. 3 (2009) 157–170. [3] S. Ghosh, Future demand of petroleum product in India, Energ. Policy 34 (2006) 2032–2037. [4] B.N. Huang, M.J. Hwang, C.W. Yang,Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach, Ecol. Econ. 67 (2008) 41–54. [5] S. Pokharel, An econometric analysis of energy consumption in Nepal, Energ. Policy 35 (2007) 350–361. [6] P. Goodwin, J. Dargey, M. Hanly,Elasticities of Road Traffic and Fuel Consumption with Respect to Price and Income: A Review, Transport Rev. 23 (2003) 275–292. [7] J. Bentzen, Elasticities in oil demand in developing countries, Pac. Asian J. Energ. 9 (1999)21–30. [8] F. Lescaroux, O. Reich, The impact of automobile diffusion on the income elasticity of motor fuel demand, Energy J. 29 (2008) 41–60. [9] The Word Bank, How we Classify Countries, 2011, http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications. [10] World Energy Outlook 2009, IEA, Paris, 2009. [11] Uredba o izmenama i dopunama Uredbe o utvrđivanju Programa ostvarivanja Strategije razvoja energetike Republike Srbije do 2015. godine za period od 2007. do 2012. godine, Vlada R. Srbije, Sl.glasnik RS 27/10, Beograd, 2010, str. 64–96. [12] The Word Bank, GNI per capita, PPP (current international $), 2011, http://data.worldbank.org/Indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.CD. [13] [International Monetary Fund, IMF Data Mapper, 2011, http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php. [14] Postkrizni model ekonomskog rasta i razvoja Srbije 2011 to 2020, FREN & MAT, Ekonomski institut, Ekonomski fakultet, Beograd, Avgust 2010. [15] P. Fehrentz, Trend towards buying fuel – saving cars reduces fuel consumption, Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland, 2011, http://www.destatis.de. [16] European Commission, 2011, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu. [17] European Energy and Transport.Trends to 2030 – Update 2007,EC, DGTREN, Luxembourg, 2008. [18] Regulation (EC) No 443/2009, EC, Brussels, 2009.
D. MARINKOVIĆ et al.: MOTOR FUEL CONSUMPTION IN SERBIA Hem. ind. 66 (3) 413–423 (2012) [19] International Energy Outlook 2009, U.S. EIA, Washington DC, 2009. [20] Annual Energy Outlook 2010 – With Projection to 2035, U.S. EIA, Washington DC, 2010. [21] Presedency Conclusion 7775/1/06 REV 10, Council of the EU, Brussels, 2006. [22] Directive 2009/28/EC, EC, Brussels, 2009. [23] Directive 2003/30/EC, EC, Brussels, 2003. [24] Directive 2001/80/EC EC, Brussels, 2001. [25] S. Roujol, R. Joumard, Influence of passenger car auxiliaries on pollutant emission factors within the Artemis model, Atmos. Environ. 43 (2009) 1008–1014. [26] G. Radnays, Paving the Way to Green Solutions, Toyota Motor Europe, 2008. IZVOD [27] Republika Srbija, Republicki zavod za statistiku, 2010, http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs. [28] S. Prvulović, D. Velimirović, D. Manasić, I. Minić, Istraživanje tržižta automobile Srbije2008, Synovate Serbia, Beograd, 2008. [29] M. Pock, Gasoline and diesel demand in Europe: new insights, Economics Series 202, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, 2007. [30] An economic and security of supply analysis of the widening EU diesel deficit, Factsheet, EBB, Brussels, 2008. [31] EU Energy and Transport in Figures – Statistical Pocketbook 2009, EC, DG TREN, Luxembourg, 2009. [32] R.M. Mackay, S.D. Probert, Modified Logit-Function Demand Model for Predicting National Crude-Oil and Natural-Gas Consumptions, Appl. Energ. 49 (1994) 75–90. MODELOVANJE POTROŠNJE MOTORNIH GORIVA U SRBIJI SA PROJEKCIJAMA DO 2025. GODINE Dalibor Marinković 1 , Zoran Popović 1 , Aleksandar Orlović 2 , Mirjana Ristić 2 1 Univerzitet u Beogradu, Institut za hemiju, tehnologiju i metalurgiju, Beograd, Srbija 2 Univerzitet u Beogradu, Tehnološko–metalurški fakultet, Beograd, Srbija (Naučni rad) Ovaj rad se bazira na primeni metoda matematičke statističke analize koji mogu da posluže za predviđanje razvoja potrošnje motornih goriva u Republici Srbiji. Model je baziran na linearnoj zavisnosti rasta obima potrošnje motornih goriva od razvoja bruto domaćeg proizvoda po glavi stanovnika koja je potom korigovana uvođenjem pet dodatnih uticajnih parametara. Svakom od ovih parametara dodeljen je odgovarajući koeficijent koji odmerava specifični uticaj istog na potrošnju motornih goriva. Rezultati modela ukazuju da će ukupna potrošnja motornih goriva u Srbiji od 2010. do 2025. biti uvećana za 26,5%, sa 2,36 Mt/god na 2,99 Mt/god. Potrošnju dizel goriva očekuje nastavak intenzivnog rasta, doduše nešto usporen u odnosu na ostvarenja u prethodnoj dekadi i do 2025. potrošnja će dostići nivo od blizu 2 Mt. Postojeći trend opadanja tražnje motornih benzina biće zaustavljen 2015–2016, nakon toga sledi spori rast tražnje i do 2025. potrošnja će biti oko 550 Kt. Potrošnja tečnog naftnog gasa (TNG) nakon intenzivnog rasta od 2015. ući će u fazu saturacije, tako da će u periodu 2010–2025. godine zabeležiti mali porast potrošnje – sa 377 na 435 Kt/god. Ključne reči: Potrošnja naftnih derivata • BDP • matematički model • Srbija 423
Page 1 and 2: B I O G R A F I J A Име и пр
Page 3 and 4: Библиографија радо
Page 5 and 6: Modeling of motor fuel consumption
Page 7 and 8: D. MARINKOVIĆ et al.: MOTOR FUEL C
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Page 17 and 18: Abstrakt UKLANJANJE ARSENA IZ PODZE
Page 19 and 20: Socio-ekonomski uslovi u Republici
Page 21 and 22: Metod rada Specifičnost i težina
Page 23 and 24: Slika 3. Dijagram zavisnosti koncen
Page 25 and 26: Reference (1) 20060905 Product broc
Page 27 and 28: U predhodnom periodu, tokom ispitiv
Page 29 and 30: ODREĐIVANJE ADSORPCIONOG KAPACITET
Page 31 and 32: može objasniti u relacijama poveć
Page 33 and 34: 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 1,6 1,4
Page 35 and 36: 10. Macko , The removal of organic
Page 37 and 38: ORGANIZATORI • Tehnološko‐meta
Page 39 and 40: Izdavač: FORUM KVALITETA Asocijaci
Page 41 and 42: životne sredine i moguća rešenja
Page 43 and 44: CHYMICUS IV Četvrti međunarodni k
Page 45 and 46: SADRŽAJ UVODNA IZLAGANJA Đorđe
Page 47 and 48: CHYMICUS IV Tea Spasojević‐Šan
Page 49 and 50: EKO SISTEMI I NJIHOVA ZAŠTITA; OST
Page 51 and 52: 1. UVOD Strana 2 Forum kvaliteta CH
Page 53 and 54: Strana 4 Forum kvaliteta CHYMICUS I
Page 55 and 56: Udeo obnovljivih alternativnih gori
Page 57 and 58: Strana 8 Forum kvaliteta CHYMICUS I
Page 59 and 60: CIP ‐ Каталогизациј
Page 61 and 62: XIII • YuCorr Savez inženjera Sr
Page 63 and 64: REVITALIZACIJA I RAZVOJ PROIZVODNJE
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Posebno velike ekonomske i nemerlji
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Treba pomenuti da je globalno aktue
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Zapadnoevropski petrohemijski proiz
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sekundarnih petrohemijskih derivata
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Na skromnom nivou su i investicije
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UDC:502 ISSN 0354 - 3285 No - 63
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SADRŽAJ - CONTENT Scientific paper
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Milan Radosavljević, Maja Anđelko
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NOVI MATERIJALI SADRŽAJ - TEHNIKA
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Pregledni rad Prateći ekološko-ek
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prostor je blizu, odnosno pored, pr
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Deponija matalurških materijala im
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Literatura 1. Lokalni ekološki akc
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UNIVERZITET U BEOGRADU TEHNOLOŠKO-
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UNIVERZITET U BEOGRADU TEHNOLOŠKO-
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Modeling of motor fuel consumption
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Sadržaj II DEO MODELOVANJE EMISIJE
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I DEO MODELOVANJE POTROŠNJE NAFTNI
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Uvod I deo goriva u sektoru saobra
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Potrosnja svih derivata, t 2,6x10 6
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Metodologija I deo Matematička fun
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Identifikacija parametara I deo eko
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Identifikacija parametara I deo Na
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Identifikacija parametara I deo kil
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Identifikacija parametara I deo god
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Parametar promene cene sirove nafte
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Potrosnja alternativnih goriva, m 3
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Alternativna goriva, % 13 12 11 10
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Identifikacija parametara I deo Me
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gde su: = ∙ ∙ , parametar vredn
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Identifikacija parametara I deo izb
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Vozila starosti izmedju 2-5 godina,
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) Grupa starosti vozila od 2 do 5 g
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Identifikacija parametara I deo Def
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Ukupna potrosnja motornih goriva, t
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Rezultati i diskusija I deo 1.1.2.1
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Rezultati i diskusija I deo nešto
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Potrosnja TNG-a, t Potrosnja TNG-a,
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Potrosnja TNG-a, t 500.000 400.000
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Potrosnja dizel goriva, t 2.200.000
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Potrosnja dizel goriva, t 2.200.000
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Zaključak I deo periodu od 2001. g
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2.1. Uvod Zagađen vazduh i dalje o
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2.2. Zagađenje vazduha u urbanim s
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Zagađenje vazduha u urbanim sredin
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Zagađenje vazduha u urbanim sredin
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Emisioni trendovi u svetu II deo Se
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Emisioni trendovi u svetu II deo me
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1.2. Metodologija Zagađen vazduh i
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Metodologija II deo ( ) = ∑ ∙ (
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Metodologija II deo univerzitetu (S
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Metodologija II deo Sa slike 2.6. s
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Metodologija II deo Tabela 2.7. Upo
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E f (NO x ), g/l 35 30 25 20 15 10
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Metodologija II deo razliku od rani
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Metodologija II deo U slučaju Srbi
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Metodologija II deo Rezultati radov
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Metodologija II deo neophodno uvest
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2.5. Rezultati i diskusija Rezultat
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Rezultati i diskusija II deo Karakt
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Rezultati i diskusija II deo Rezult
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2.5.3. Emisija ugljovodonika Rezult
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HC, t 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.0
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CO 2 , t 10.000.000 9.000.000 8.000
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Rezultati i diskusija II deo Upored
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Rezultati i diskusija II deo Tabela
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Zaključak II deo krenuti postepeni
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Dodatak Tabela 3.2. Vrednosti param
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Dodatak Tabela 3.4. Prikaz kretanja
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Dodatak Tabela 3.6. Vrednosti param
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Dodatak Tabela 3.8. Razvoj motoriza
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Dodatak Tabela 3.10. Kretanje broja
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Dodatak Tabela 3.12. Prikaz kretanj
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Dodatak Tabela 3.13. Kretanje broja
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Dodatak Tabela 3.15. Iznosi potroš
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Dodatak Tabela 3.17. Prikaz rezulta
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Dodatak Tabela 3.19. Uporedni prika
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Dodatak Tabela 3.25. Iznosi godišn
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Dodatak jest ukupnu disperziju eksp
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Reference [1] M. Belhaj, Vehicle an
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Reference [38] Regulation of Fuels
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Reference [73] S. S. Pokharel, G. A
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Reference [107] A. P. Grieshop, E.
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Радно искуство - IHTM - Универзитет у Београду

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