Automotive Exports October 2023
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- Page 10: Monthly automotive aftermarket maga
- Page 14: Türkiye seeking to lure more forei
- Page 20: Auto production rises 13 percent in
- Page 28: Automotive exports expected to be $
- Page 32: BMW to invest $750M in UK Mini plan
- Page 40: Fitch cites Türkiye’s policy shi
- Page 46: Toyota announces initiative for sol
- Page 50: Europe’s electric car market shar
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Monthly automotive aftermarket magazine<br />
GROUP CHAIRMAN<br />
H. FERRUH ISIK<br />
PUBLISHER:<br />
İstmag Magazin Gazetecilik<br />
İç ve Dış Ticaret Ltd. Şti.<br />
Managing Editor (Responsible)<br />
Mehmet Söztutan<br />
mehmet.soztutan@img.com.tr<br />
Advertising Sales Consultant<br />
Adem Saçın<br />
+90 505 577 36 42<br />
adem.sacin@img.com.tr<br />
EDİToR<br />
Mehmet Soztutan, Editor-in-Chief<br />
mehmet.soztutan@img.com.tr<br />
Enes Karadayı<br />
enes.karadayi@img.com.tr<br />
International Marketing Coordinator<br />
Ayca Sarioglu<br />
ayca.sarioglu@img.com.tr<br />
Advisory Editor<br />
Yusuf Okçu<br />
yusuf.okcu@img.com.tr<br />
Finance Manager<br />
Cuma Karaman<br />
cuma.karaman@img.com.tr<br />
Digital Assets Manager<br />
Emre Yener<br />
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Sami aktaş<br />
sami.aktas@img.com.tr<br />
Accountant<br />
Yusuf Demirkazık<br />
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Subsciption<br />
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ismail.ozcelik@img.com.tr<br />
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Heading to Automechanika Dubai <strong>2023</strong><br />
Turkish automotive industry, with its vehicles and auto parts manufacturing sub-sectors,<br />
is one of dynamically exporting industries of the Turkish economy. As noted earlier in this<br />
column, the auto parts industry of Türkiye has developed rapidly as a consequence of<br />
developments in the automotive industry. The autoparts industry with its large capacity,<br />
wide variety of production and high standards, supports automotive industry production<br />
and the vehicles in Türkiye and also has always ample potential for exports. Business people<br />
operating in the industry have become outward oriented more than ever before.<br />
These companies not only dominate the primary supply markets but also capture an<br />
increasing share of the replacement market. Their continued success in exports markets<br />
depend on close technical links with part makers in industrialised countries and the<br />
willingness of their foreign partners to integrate their Turkish counterparts into their<br />
production-distribution networks as regular suppliers of high quality, low-cost components.<br />
Türkiye’s auto parts industry exports are increasing steadily year by year. Türkiye is the only<br />
country within the surrounding geographical area to have established a well-advanced<br />
automotive industry. Therefore, the automotive industry is strategically important both for<br />
Türkiye and for firms that will invest in Türkiye. We think that technology will always be the<br />
key for the survival of the automotive industry. History says so.<br />
This month, we participate in Automechanika Dubai <strong>2023</strong> to convey the message of the<br />
Turkish automotive and auto spare parts exporters. The stars of the automotive world will<br />
be meeting at Automechanika Dubai as usual.<br />
Automechanika Dubai, showcasing the latest global trends, has turned out to be a<br />
remarkable automotive aftermarket platform for the Middle East and Africa.<br />
The Fair which covers the full range of automobile, truck and bus parts, equipment,<br />
components, accessories, tools, and services continues to bring world renowned<br />
manufacturers, suppliers and service providers in touch with one of the most important<br />
growing markets in the world. The markets targeted by the Fair are widely recognised as the<br />
most attractive in the world in terms of future potential.<br />
Our publications remain at the service of those business people seeking to increase their<br />
share in the increasingly competitive automotive markets.<br />
We wish lucrative business for all participants.<br />
automotiveexport<br />
automotiveexports
Automechanika Dubai- The international trade show for the<br />
automotive aftermarket industry in the Middle East<br />
Automechanika Dubai-is the ideal onestop<br />
trade platform in the MEA region for<br />
businesses in the automotive aftermarket<br />
and service industry seeking to expand<br />
their network, explore opportunities,<br />
get updated with the latest trends and<br />
solutions while evaluating market trends<br />
and sharing expertise.<br />
20th anniversary edition which is held<br />
from 2-4 <strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> promises to be<br />
bigger, better and grander with new<br />
features, and 14 halls featuring 1,800+<br />
exhibitors from 60+ countries and 20<br />
official country pavilions.<br />
With thousands of products from hundreds<br />
of exhibitors from around the world on<br />
the show floor, along with numerous show<br />
features including the Academy, Awards,<br />
AfriConnections, Modern Workshop,<br />
Tools & Skills Competition and Innovation<br />
Zone, Automechanika Dubai is a mustattend<br />
for all automotive aftermarket<br />
professionals to meet, network, learn,<br />
engage and grow your business. What<br />
makes a modern workshop? Latest tools,<br />
innovative equipment, modern machinery,<br />
advanced diagnostic devices and above<br />
all skilled people who are updated with<br />
the latest industry know-how. During<br />
Automechanika Dubai’s Modern Workshop,<br />
garage and workshop professionals can<br />
enhance their knowledge by taking part in<br />
training programmes, workshops and live<br />
presentations that will showcase the most<br />
modern, latest and innovative solutions for<br />
the garage and workshop sector.<br />
Are you interested in exhibiting at<br />
Automechanika Dubai? Whether you’re<br />
a manufacturer looking to enter the<br />
market or a well-established distributor/<br />
supplier, Automechanika Dubai is the<br />
perfect gateway for you to be part of the<br />
opportunity that the Middle East and<br />
African automotive aftermarket industry<br />
presents.<br />
To sum up:<br />
•1000+ Exhibitors<br />
•58+ Exhibiting Countries<br />
•20+ Country Pavilions<br />
•20,000+ Visitors<br />
•130+ Visiting Countries<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 10
Türkiye seeking to lure more foreign carmakers<br />
Talks are ongoing with carmakers from<br />
Europe and Asia, including China, to lure<br />
more investments into Türkiye’s automotive<br />
sector, Industry and Technology Minister<br />
Fatih Kacır has said.<br />
“We are hoping that at least one of them will<br />
announce an investment decision by the end<br />
of the year,” he said.<br />
Those companies may produce electric and<br />
hybrid vehicles in Türkiye, and the western<br />
province of Manisa appears to be the likely<br />
candidate for possible plant investment,<br />
Kacır said.<br />
“Volkswagen made a mistake. It missed<br />
an opportunity in Manisa. I hope they<br />
reconsider their decision. The site for a plant<br />
is ready in Manisa for those that want to<br />
make an investment,” he added.<br />
The German carmaker had abandoned its<br />
plan to build a factory in Manisa with a more<br />
than $1 billion investment.<br />
“We are holding talks with almost all<br />
carmakers from Europe and the Far East,<br />
including China. We, particularly, focus on<br />
luring investments for new generation,<br />
electric and hybrid vehicle production.Talks<br />
are ongoing with companies, which currently<br />
do not have investments in Türkiye,” he told<br />
a group of reporters.<br />
Kacır also said one of the global carmakers,<br />
which already operates in Türkiye, may<br />
announce new investments. He, however,<br />
did not name the company or provide<br />
other details. The minister recalled that the<br />
government provided a substantial incentive<br />
for Ford’s electric vehicle production<br />
initiative.<br />
“Also, Toyota will begin manufacturing a new<br />
hybrid model vehicle in Türkiye. There is<br />
strong demand from companies for electric<br />
vehicle investments in the country,” he said,<br />
noting that the government will continue to<br />
provide support for EV production. Türkiye is<br />
one of the largest automotive manufacturers<br />
in Europe. Last year, 1.35 million vehicles<br />
were produced in the country, pointing to a<br />
6 percent increase compared with 2021.<br />
Passenger car production grew 3.6 percent<br />
in 2022 from the previous year to nearly<br />
811,000, according to data from the<br />
<strong>Automotive</strong> Manufacturers’ Association<br />
(OSD).<br />
In the first five months of <strong>2023</strong>, automotive<br />
production leaped 20 percent to 616,000,<br />
with passenger car output rising more than<br />
30 percent year-on-year to 386,000.<br />
The <strong>Automotive</strong> Distributors and Mobility<br />
Association (ODMD) reported earlier that<br />
556,000 passenger cars and light commercial<br />
vehicles were sold in January-June, up 56<br />
percent from the same period last year.<br />
Passenger car sales grew 55 percent to<br />
430,400.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 12
<strong>Automotive</strong> industry plugged into innovation<br />
Türkiye’s automotive industry dates<br />
back to the early 1960s. During a period<br />
of rapid industrialization and progress,<br />
this key sector transformed itself from<br />
assembly-based partnerships to a fullfledged<br />
industry with design capability and<br />
massive production capacity. Since 2003,<br />
original equipment manufacturers (OEM)<br />
have invested over USD 17 billion in their<br />
operations in Türkiye. These investments<br />
significantly expanded their manufacturing<br />
capabilities, which in turn led Türkiye to<br />
become an important part of the global<br />
value chain of international OEMs. Meeting<br />
and exceeding international quality<br />
and safety standards, today’s Turkish<br />
automotive industry is highly efficient<br />
and competitive thanks to value-added<br />
production.<br />
As part of its commitment to transforming<br />
its automotive industry, which has<br />
historically been a key economic driver<br />
in integrating the Turkish economy with<br />
the global value chain, and to its vision of<br />
making Türkiye an economic powerhouse,<br />
Türkiye has introduced its own locallydeveloped<br />
born-electric car built upon<br />
strength stemming from the country’s longstanding<br />
know-how in the area.<br />
Accordingly, Türkiye’s Automobile Joint<br />
Venture Group, known as Togg, will<br />
produce five different models on a joint<br />
platform with fully-owned intellectual and<br />
industrial property rights by 2030.<br />
Leveraging a competitive and highly-skilled<br />
workforce combined with a dynamic<br />
local market and favorable geographical<br />
location, the vehicle production of 8 global<br />
OEMs in Türkiye has increased by almost<br />
five times from 300,000s in 2002 to over<br />
1.3 million units in 2022. This represents a<br />
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of<br />
around 6 percent during that period.<br />
• Significant growth posted by Türkiye’s<br />
automotive sector led to the country’s<br />
becoming the 13th largest automotive<br />
manufacturer in the world and 4th largest<br />
in Europe by the end of 2022.<br />
• Türkiye has already become a center of<br />
excellence, particularly with respect to the<br />
production of commercial vehicles. By the<br />
end of 2022, Türkiye was the number one<br />
producer of commercial vehicles (CVs) in<br />
Europe.<br />
•Proven as a production hub of excellence,<br />
the Turkish automotive industry is now<br />
aiming at improving its R&D, design, and<br />
branding capabilities. As of 2022, 156<br />
R&D and design centers belonging to<br />
automotive manufacturers and suppliers<br />
are operational in Türkiye.<br />
•Notable examples of global brands<br />
with product development, design,<br />
and engineering activities in Türkiye<br />
include Ford, Fiat, Daimler, AVL, and<br />
FEV. Ford Otosan’s R&D center is one of<br />
Ford’s three largest global R&D centers,<br />
while Fiat’s R&D center in Bursa is the<br />
Italian company’s only center serving<br />
the European market outside its home<br />
country. Meanwhile, Daimler’s R&D center<br />
in Istanbul complements the German<br />
company’s truck and bus manufacturing<br />
operations in Türkiye. AVL Türkiye, which<br />
opened up its 2nd R&D center in Türkiye,<br />
develops autonomous and hybrid vehicle<br />
technologies.<br />
•Türkiye offers a supportive environment<br />
on the supply chain side. There are around<br />
1,100 component suppliers supporting the<br />
production of OEMs. With the parts going<br />
directly to the production lines of vehicle<br />
manufacturers, the localization rate of<br />
OEMs varies between 50 and 70 percent.<br />
•Türkiye is home to many global suppliers.<br />
There are more than 250 global suppliers<br />
that use Türkiye as a production base, with<br />
30 of them ranking among the 50 largest<br />
global suppliers.<br />
•Auto manufacturers increasingly choose<br />
Türkiye as a production base for their export<br />
sales. This is evidenced by the fact that 73<br />
percent of vehicle production in Türkiye<br />
was destined for international markets in<br />
2022. Türkiye exported more than 950,000<br />
vehicles to international markets in the<br />
same year. In addition, Türkiye has been the<br />
number one vehicle exporter to European<br />
markets for around a decade.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 16
Auto production rises 13 percent in eight months<br />
Turkish carmakers produced more than<br />
943,000 vehicles in the first eight months<br />
of <strong>2023</strong>, a 13 percent increase from a year<br />
ago, according to the data from <strong>Automotive</strong><br />
Manufacturers’ Association (OSD).<br />
Passenger car output grew 21 percent yearon-year<br />
to nearly 600,000, but the annual<br />
increase in commercial vehicle production<br />
was lower at 2 percent to 344,000.<br />
Local carmakers boosted their exports by<br />
11 percent, shipping some 660,000 vehicles<br />
to foreign markets in the January-August<br />
period, with passenger car exports rising 26<br />
percent to 426,000.<br />
The industry’s export revenues amounted<br />
to $23.3 billion during this period, pointing<br />
to a robust 17 percent annual increase.<br />
In August alone, its export revenues rose<br />
by 21 percent to $2.7 billion.<br />
In the first eight months of the year,<br />
787,197 vehicles were sold on the local<br />
market, marking a 63 percent increase<br />
compared with the same period of 2022.<br />
Passenger car sales grew 64 percent yearon-year<br />
to nearly 583,000. Vehicle sales<br />
grew 73 percent year-on-year in August<br />
alone to 90,400, while the passenger car<br />
market expanded 88 percent to 66,000.<br />
Türkiye increased passenger car imports<br />
by 118 percent from a year ago to nearly<br />
52,000, which meant that imported cars<br />
accounted for 78 percent of all cars sold on<br />
the local market.<br />
In August, both total vehicle and passenger<br />
car production declined by 21.2 percent<br />
year-on-year. Some large carmakers<br />
suspended production due to maintenance<br />
work which could explain the drop in the<br />
industry’s output. The Turkish automotive<br />
industry has a total production capacity of<br />
2 million vehicles. In terms of production,<br />
it ranks fourth in Europe and 14th in the<br />
world, employing more than 500,000<br />
people.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 18
Industrial output rises 7.4 percent<br />
Industrial production increased by 7.4<br />
percent in July from a year ago, after rising<br />
at a paltry 0.2 percent in the previous<br />
two months, the official data showed<br />
on Sept. 11. Manufacturing output also<br />
expanded 7.4 percent year-on-year, while<br />
the annual increase in the capital goods<br />
sector’s production was 25.6 percent,<br />
said the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).<br />
Intermediate goods production grew 3.2<br />
percent from July 2022. The 16 percent rise<br />
in the durable goods sector was noticeable.<br />
In the energy sector, production increased<br />
by 0.9 percent in July from the same month<br />
of last year. TÜİK said industrial production<br />
fell 0.4 percent month-on-month in July,<br />
after rising 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent on<br />
a monthly basis in June and May.<br />
The growth of the Turkish manufacturing<br />
sector moderated in August as firms faced<br />
challenges in securing new business, a<br />
survey conducted jointly by the Istanbul<br />
Chamber of Industry (ISO) and S&P Global<br />
showed.<br />
The headline PMI in August stood at 49,<br />
from 49.9 in July, below the 50 no-change<br />
mark for the second month running.<br />
Meanwhile, interest rates on commercial<br />
loans climbed above the interest rates local<br />
banks charge on housing and car loans as<br />
of Sept. 1, reaching 38 percent.<br />
The interest rates on personal loans,<br />
car loans and housing loans were 53<br />
percent, 36.7 percent, and 35.7 percent,<br />
respectively. The interest rates on loans<br />
have been rising after the Central Bank<br />
started to hike its policy rate. Since June,<br />
the bank delivered a total of 1,650 bps<br />
hike in the one-week repo auction rate to<br />
25 percent. The Central Bank’s Monetary<br />
Policy Committee will meet again on Sept.<br />
21 to decide about its policy rate.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 24
<strong>Automotive</strong> exports expected to be $34 billion this year<br />
The Turkish automotive sector’s export<br />
revenues may climb to $34 billion this year,<br />
according to a report by KPMG.<br />
Last year, the local industry produced<br />
1.3 million vehicles and sales on the<br />
local market amounted to 827,000 while<br />
970,000 vehicles were shipped to foreign<br />
markets.<br />
Data from the <strong>Automotive</strong> Manufacturers’<br />
Association (OSD) showed that export<br />
revenues of Turkish carmakers increased by<br />
5.5 percent last year compared with 2021<br />
to stand at $31.5 billion.<br />
The industry’s exports have exceeded $20<br />
billion in the first seven months of <strong>2023</strong>,<br />
rising 16 percent from the same period<br />
of last year, according to the Turkish<br />
Exporters’ Assembly (TİM).<br />
The automotive sector accounted for 16<br />
percent of Türkiye’s total exports in the<br />
January-July period.<br />
The KPMG report noted the availability<br />
problems in the auto market due to the<br />
semiconductor shortages, coupled with<br />
the special consumption rates depressed<br />
domestic demand in 2022.<br />
However, the local auto industry appeared<br />
to have overcome this availability problem.<br />
In July, the combined sales of passenger<br />
cars and light commercial vehicles (LCV)<br />
leaped 115.4 percent from a year ago.<br />
Passenger car sales grew more than 109<br />
percent to around 86,000, while LCV sales<br />
soared almost 138 percent to 27,000.<br />
Experts said that carmakers were able<br />
to deliver the orders to their customers,<br />
which partially explained the surge in sales.<br />
Consumers also decided to buy now,<br />
anticipating that the car prices will<br />
increase in the coming months due to the<br />
depreciation of the Turkish Lira, which led<br />
to a sharp rise in vehicle demand in July,<br />
according to experts.<br />
Demand has been strong over the past<br />
months also because people purchased<br />
cars as an investment to protect their<br />
savings against inflation. Those, who<br />
cannot buy a house, which is a favorite<br />
investment among Turks, due to exorbitant<br />
property prices, turned to cars, said<br />
experts.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 26
Chinese EV<br />
Skywell maker<br />
agrees deal to<br />
build Türkiye<br />
battery plant<br />
China’s technology company Skyworth has reached an investment<br />
agreement with a Turkish group to build a battery factory in<br />
Türkiye, a statement said.<br />
The manufacturer of the Skywell electric vehicle (EV) brand,<br />
Skyworth said the deal was reached with Ulubaşlar Group to<br />
develop and produce batteries, without disclosing the location of<br />
the factory.<br />
The companies will invest $25 million each in the plant that is<br />
planned to be opened by the first quarter of 2024, the statement<br />
said.<br />
The factory will manufacture batteries featuring 800V+4C superfast<br />
charging technology architecture. This will enable a charging<br />
power to increase from 120 kW to 480 kW, allowing the vehicles to<br />
charge 80% in eight minutes, according to the statement.<br />
“The battery is a key element in the transformation of the<br />
automotive market, and producing this technology here will<br />
provide Türkiye with important capabilities and will make<br />
significant contributions to the economy of our country,” said<br />
Mahmut Ulubaş, CEO of Skywell Türkiye.<br />
Ulubaş also stressed on the impact the investment would have on<br />
employment and exports.<br />
Among others, the Chinese company could also launch production<br />
of Skywell’s new models that are planned to be launched on the<br />
market within three years in Türkiye, said Ulubaş.<br />
Ulubaşlar Group’s subsidiary Ulu Motor is a distributor of Skywell<br />
operating in Türkiye and 15 other countries.<br />
Ulubaş’s remarks were echoed by Wu Longba, co-founder and CEO<br />
of Skywell, who stressed the company’s close cooperation with Ulu<br />
Motor and also noted the plans to establish an assembly line in the<br />
country.<br />
“We will initiate feasibility studies for this collaboration (battery<br />
factory) as soon as possible, which will be a significant turning<br />
point in Türkiye-China relations. We are very enthusiastic about this<br />
partnership,” he noted.<br />
“Moreover, we plan to establish a vehicle production line, bring<br />
spare parts supply system to Türkiye, and manufacture certain<br />
components here,” he said.<br />
“We anticipate various future business partnerships with Ulu Motor<br />
throughout these processes. Our objective is to contribute to the<br />
development of Türkiye’s new energy vehicle industry technology<br />
and capacity.”<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 28
BMW to invest $750M in UK Mini<br />
plants to fuel electric car output<br />
German auto giant BMW announced it will<br />
invest 600 million pounds ($750 million)<br />
at its U.K. plants to take its iconic Mini<br />
brand all-electric by 2030, a fresh boost<br />
for Britain’s car industry following years of<br />
Brexit-related uncertainty.<br />
From 2026, BMW will make two electric<br />
models at its Mini plant in Oxford – the<br />
Mini Cooper 3-door and the compact<br />
crossover Mini Aceman. The plant will<br />
make only electric models as of 2030. The<br />
same two models will also be made in<br />
China and exports of those cars will begin<br />
in 2024. British business minister Kemi<br />
Badenoch will visit the plant in Oxford for<br />
the announcement of the investment,<br />
which the government said boosted total<br />
investment in the automotive sector in<br />
recent years to over 6 billion pounds.<br />
“BMW’s investment is another shining<br />
example of how the United Kingdom is<br />
the best place to build cars of the future,”<br />
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said in a<br />
statement.<br />
The carmaker said the U.K. government<br />
had provided support for the investment<br />
but did not provide details.<br />
BMW will also invest in its U.K. plant<br />
in Swindon which makes parts for Mini<br />
models. The company did not say what<br />
would happen to its engine plant in Hams<br />
Hall.<br />
The small, fast and affordable original Mini<br />
went on sale in 1959 and has remained<br />
popular under BMW since it revived the<br />
brand in 2001, but its future in Britain has<br />
been uncertain for years.<br />
Still, the industry remains on edge with<br />
both Britain and Europe’s carmakers calling<br />
for a delay in the implementation of post-<br />
Brexit “rules of origin”, under which 45%<br />
of the value of an EV being sold in the<br />
European Union must come from Britain or<br />
the EU from 2024 to avoid tariffs.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 30
EU ignites anti-subsidy probe into China’s EV ‘market distortion’<br />
European Commission President Ursula<br />
von der Leyen announced an anti-subsidy<br />
investigation into electric vehicles coming<br />
from China.Global markets are flooded<br />
with cheap Chinese electric cars, von der<br />
Leyen said, addressing European Union<br />
lawmakers in Strasbourg, France.<br />
Their price is kept artificially low by “huge<br />
state subsidies,” she said, leading to market<br />
distortion in the EU. The EU however does<br />
not tolerate market distortions either from<br />
within the bloc or from outside of it, von<br />
der Leyen said.<br />
“Europe is open to competition, not for a<br />
race to the bottom,” she said.<br />
An anti-subsidy investigation can<br />
potentially lead to punitive duties being<br />
imposed on imports to the EU.<br />
Different efforts are currently underway<br />
in several EU economic sectors to reduce<br />
the bloc’s dependence on imports from<br />
countries like China or Russia and to<br />
protect domestic companies.<br />
In the global race for profitable clean tech<br />
industries, von der Leyen previously called<br />
for greater independence from Chinese<br />
imports and the production of more<br />
emissions-reducing technology in the bloc.<br />
In March, the European Commission<br />
presented a proposal for a law on the<br />
supply of critical raw materials needed for<br />
clean-tech technologies, including powerful<br />
batteries. The draft bill, which still needs<br />
to be approved by EU capitals and the<br />
European Parliament, aims to ensure that<br />
the bloc does not remain overly dependent<br />
on raw material imports from individual<br />
countries, including China but diversifies its<br />
suppliers.<br />
At the same time it was “vital to keep open<br />
lines of communication and dialogue with<br />
China,” she said in Strasbourg.<br />
At a planned EU-China summit later this<br />
year, von der Leyen is to advocate for<br />
reducing trade and economic risks in the<br />
EU’s relations with China while maintaining<br />
dialogue with the country, she said.<br />
Development Road project to enter implementation phase<br />
“We, at a point where three continents converge, are open to any<br />
plan that promotes cooperation.”<br />
“However, it should be known that in our region, the effective<br />
and sustainable operation of energy and transportation corridors<br />
without Türkiye’s involvement is not possible.”<br />
The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which<br />
connects the Turkic world to Europe via the Caspian Sea, and<br />
the Development Road that will pass through Iraq to Türkiye,<br />
underscore Türkiye’s central role, he added. Some international<br />
developments such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the COVID-19<br />
outbreak, which have deeply affected the global and geopolitical<br />
environment, have proven that the Trans-Caspian International<br />
Transport Route is a reliable alternative route, he said.<br />
The major infrastructure and transportation project planned to<br />
stretch from the Iraqi province of Basra to the Turkish border is<br />
expected to enter the implementation phase within a few months,<br />
Türkiye’s top diplomat said.<br />
“We hope to move into the implementation phase of the<br />
Development Road project, which is of great importance for<br />
prosperity and stability in the Middle East, within the next few<br />
months,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told the the 10th World<br />
Turkish Business Council (DTIK) Congress in Istanbul.<br />
Türkiye and Iraq are working to build a land and railroad<br />
transportation corridor from the Iraqi province of Basra to the<br />
Turkish border. Referring to the agreement on the India-Middle<br />
East-Europe Economic Corridor signed at the G-20 summit in New<br />
Delhi, Fidan said:<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 34
Fitch cites<br />
Türkiye’s policy<br />
shift as driver<br />
behind outlook<br />
upgrade<br />
Fitch Ratings cited a return to more<br />
conventional economic policymaking since<br />
the May election as the primary driver<br />
behind its decision to upgrade Türkiye’s<br />
credit rating outlook.<br />
The credit rating agency revised the<br />
outlook on the nation’s long-term foreigncurrency<br />
issuer default rating to “stable”<br />
from “negative.” It affirmed its debt grade<br />
at “B,” five notches below investment<br />
grade.<br />
In its assessment released, the agency said<br />
the revision reflected the return to a more<br />
conventional and consistent policy mix that<br />
reduces near-term macro-financial stability<br />
risks and eases balance of payments<br />
pressures, according to Erich Arispe<br />
Morales, a senior director in Fitch Ratings’<br />
sovereigns group.<br />
In an interview with Anadolu Agency (AA),<br />
Morales shared insights into Türkiye’s<br />
economic outlook, highlighting several key<br />
factors that have led to a more positive<br />
assessment.<br />
He also discussed the country’s growth<br />
prospects and weighed in on the possibility<br />
of an upgrade to “investment grade.”<br />
Morales explained that the country has<br />
moved away from targeted financial<br />
regulations that were perceived as<br />
“interventionist and unpredictable.”<br />
“This refers to reducing the monetary<br />
policy rate as the main mechanism to<br />
signal the central bank’s policy direction.<br />
We have also seen that policy is more<br />
consistent than before and we have a<br />
very mixed policy focused on growth and<br />
employment,” he said.<br />
This shift toward more consistent and<br />
growth-focused policies despite previous<br />
macroeconomic imbalances has helped<br />
stabilize the country’s economic outlook,<br />
he added.<br />
“We can point out also that we have<br />
seen some reduction in uncertainty after<br />
the elections, given now that the policy<br />
direction is clear,” he said.<br />
The change of policy direction since the<br />
May election, though, has seen President<br />
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan bring in two former<br />
Wall Street bankers to run the economy.<br />
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet<br />
Şimşek and Central Bank of the Republic<br />
of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Hafize Gaye<br />
Erkan have shifted away from ultra-loose<br />
monetary policy and have dramatically<br />
raised interest rates in a bid to tackle the<br />
country’s long-term inflation problem.<br />
Under Erkan, the central bank has roughly<br />
tripled its benchmark policy rate to 25%<br />
and pledged that monetary tightening will<br />
gradually be strengthened as needed.<br />
Regarding Türkiye’s economic growth,<br />
Morales acknowledged that the second<br />
quarter of the year saw greater policy<br />
stimulus due to the general elections.<br />
Looking ahead, Fitch Ratings predicts a<br />
growth rate of around 4.3% for this year.<br />
He said, however, that if policy consistency<br />
and tighter fiscal measures continue,<br />
growth could slow to 3% next year before<br />
recovering to approximately 3.4% in 2025.<br />
While acknowledging that credit pressures<br />
have eased due to recent policy shifts,<br />
Morales emphasized that macroeconomic<br />
and external financial challenges persist.<br />
Türkiye currently faces inflation of 59% as<br />
well as challenges related to an exploitative<br />
foreign exchange-protected Turkish lira<br />
deposit scheme, he said.<br />
Morales pointed out that achieving<br />
“investment grade” status for a country is<br />
a long-term effort and requires sustained<br />
policy improvements over time.<br />
This effort not only boosts economic<br />
resilience but also enhances predictability<br />
for investors and benefits economic actors<br />
in Türkiye, he added.<br />
Morales also commented on recent<br />
announcements, including funding from<br />
Gulf countries and the World Bank’s<br />
decision to double investments in Türkiye.<br />
He highlighted the importance of access<br />
to financing, especially concerning the<br />
country’s current account deficit.<br />
The three-year commitment of bilateral<br />
and official financing represents a positive<br />
development for Türkiye, providing a stable<br />
source of funding for external accounts, he<br />
underlined.<br />
In terms of opportunities, Morales noted<br />
that Türkiye currently enjoys a degree of<br />
credibility among investors due to recent<br />
policy adjustments.<br />
Despite past reversals, the government’s<br />
efforts to address macroeconomic<br />
imbalances and provide stability have<br />
garnered investor confidence, he<br />
underscored.<br />
However, geopolitical risks, exposure to<br />
trade shocks, and global economic patterns<br />
remain concerns for the nation.<br />
The key near-term risk, according to<br />
Morales, is policy predictability, especially<br />
with local elections on the horizon in<br />
March 2024, where additional stimulus<br />
measures could be deployed.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 38
Togg dominates<br />
as electric<br />
vehicle sales<br />
boom in Türkiye<br />
Sales of electric cars in Türkiye have been<br />
booming this year, capturing a market share<br />
unseen to date, dominated by the first<br />
homegrown battery-powered vehicle brand<br />
that has been adding momentum to its<br />
deliveries.<br />
Nearly 22,900 electric vehicles (EVs) have<br />
been sold from January through August<br />
of this year, according to the <strong>Automotive</strong><br />
Distributors and Mobility Association<br />
(ODMD) data.<br />
This translates into over 597% increase<br />
compared to 3,283 electric cars that were<br />
sold in the same period a year ago.<br />
Their gasoline-electric hybrid rival also<br />
maintained a robust pace and saw sales<br />
jump 65.7% in the first eight months to<br />
60,489 units.<br />
Despite having launched its deliveries<br />
just four months ago, Togg, Türkiye’s first<br />
domestically produced electric vehicle, has<br />
managed to swiftly become the bestselling<br />
brand with a top model in the electric car<br />
segment. The brand said it delivered 3,400<br />
of its T10X as of the end of August. Of this,<br />
1,965 were delivered.<br />
Mass production of the fully electric<br />
C-segment SUV was launched last <strong>October</strong>,<br />
and deliveries started in late April. The<br />
carmaker had said it planned to deliver<br />
about 20,000 units by the end of <strong>2023</strong>.<br />
Overall, passenger cars and light<br />
commercial vehicle sales in Türkiye from<br />
January through August reached 755,282<br />
units, an increase of 64.7% versus the same<br />
period a year ago.<br />
Passenger cars surged by 64.3%, totaling<br />
582,419 units, while light commercial<br />
vehicle sales witnessed a 66.4% growth,<br />
reaching 172,863 units. Demand has been<br />
notably high as depreciation in the Turkish<br />
lira and soaring prices prompted consumers<br />
to continue to opt for cars they see as a tool<br />
to safeguard themselves from high inflation.<br />
Annual inflation surged to 58.94% over the<br />
12 months ending in August. It had reached<br />
a 24-year high of 85.5% last <strong>October</strong> and<br />
stood at 47.83% this July after regressing to<br />
as low as 38.21% in June.<br />
Battery-powered and hybrid vehicles saw<br />
their market shares reach 3.9% and 10.4%,<br />
up from just 0.9% and 10.3% in the first<br />
eight months of last year, respectively.<br />
Cars powered by gasoline held a 61.6%<br />
share in the overall sales in the January-<br />
August period, down from 70% a year<br />
ago, while that of diesel vehicles fell to<br />
15.7%, from 17%. Togg’s T10X now holds<br />
an 18.2% share in the overall EV market,<br />
a 33% in electric SUV and a 55.3% in<br />
C-SUV segments. It accounted for 3%<br />
of all passenger car sales in August. The<br />
company has become the leading brand<br />
and model in the Turkish electric vehicle<br />
market, overshadowing international<br />
competitors like Tesla, which opts not to<br />
disclose country-based sales figures. In<br />
addition to Tesla, many other brands have<br />
launched sales of models they had earlier<br />
announced. Many Chinese companies have<br />
also ramped up deliveries to the country.<br />
The T10X is initially being sold with one<br />
engine type and two battery options. It will<br />
feature battery packs with 52.4 and 88.5<br />
kilowatt-hour capacities, boasting ranges<br />
of 314 and 523 kilometers (195 and 325<br />
miles). The batteries of the T10X can be<br />
recharged to up to 80% from 20% in less<br />
than 28 minutes at fast-charging stations.<br />
A consortium of five Turkish companies<br />
called the Automobile Initiative Group<br />
of Türkiye, or Togg, is manufacturing the<br />
vehicle in cooperation with the Union of<br />
Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of<br />
Türkiye (TOBB). Besides the SUV, Togg will<br />
manufacture four other models – a sedan,<br />
C-hatchback, B-SUV and B-MPV – by 2030.<br />
The sedan will follow the mass production<br />
of the SUV. The current production capacity<br />
of around 100,000 vehicles per year will<br />
reach 175,000 once Togg’s factory reaches<br />
total capacity. President Recep Tayyip<br />
Erdoğan has said some 28,000 units would<br />
be produced this year. The brand aims<br />
to manufacture 1 million vehicles across<br />
the five segments by 2030. Togg plans to<br />
begin exports as of 2025, while the initial<br />
production will be tailored for the domestic<br />
market.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 42
Toyota announces initiative for solid state batteries<br />
said in a statement. It plans to deliver 1.5 million EVs in 2026 by<br />
expanding its battery EV lineup and developing technology.<br />
EV owners usually have charging stations in their homes and keep<br />
their cars plugged in overnight to recharge. That’s one of the main<br />
reasons Toyota has long insisted that hybrids are a better solution.<br />
A hybrid recharges as the car runs, but it also has a gasoline engine<br />
in addition to an electric motor.<br />
Toyota President Koji Sato has said the company must play catchup<br />
after falling behind in the EV sector.<br />
In its latest announcement, Toyota said it was also working on<br />
innovating lithium-ion batteries, the battery type now in most EVs,<br />
and wants to offer new affordable options.<br />
Toyota plans to make an all solid-state battery as part of its<br />
ambitious plans for battery electric vehicles, the company said,<br />
amid mounting criticism Japan’s top automaker needs to do more<br />
to fight climate change.<br />
Toyota Motor Corp. aims for a commercial solid-state battery as<br />
soon as 2027. Charging time, one of the main drawbacks of electric<br />
vehicles, will get shortened to 10 minutes or less, the company<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 44
Fisker announces the Fisker Ocean has the lowest<br />
published carbon footprint of any electric SUV<br />
Fisker Inc. driven by a mission to develop<br />
the world’s most emotional and sustainable<br />
electric vehicles, released its Life Cycle<br />
Assessment (LCA) report – a cradle-to-grave<br />
analysis that details the carbon footprint<br />
of the Fisker Ocean all-electric SUV. With<br />
the lowest published carbon footprint of<br />
any electric SUV in its market segment, the<br />
“world’s most sustainable vehicle” lives up<br />
to its ambitious promise, from raw material<br />
extraction to beyond “end of use.”<br />
“Since we founded Fisker Inc., building<br />
the most sustainable electric vehicles is<br />
not just a marketing slogan; its core to<br />
our culture,” Chairman and CEO Henrik<br />
Fisker said. “It means shifting antiquated<br />
thought processes from across a 100-yearold<br />
industry, challenging the supply chain<br />
down to the most minute details, working<br />
with partners to improve the way cars are<br />
assembled, the energy they are charged<br />
with, and working on the way our vehicles<br />
are recycled after they come off the road.<br />
Our LCA confirms that climate neutrality<br />
has been a priority, since well before we<br />
started building vehicles.”<br />
Unique in the industry, Fisker built<br />
sustainability into its strategy well before<br />
becoming a publicly traded company.<br />
Fisker prioritizes using the lowest possible<br />
amount of virgin materials, delivering the<br />
most energy-efficient vehicles possible,<br />
evaluating how to ensure the least amount<br />
of material goes to landfill at end of use,<br />
and developing methods for full vehicle<br />
and battery reuse and recycling. The<br />
company’s emphasis on supporting a<br />
“circular economy” includes prioritizing<br />
how battery materials may be pushed back<br />
into upstream sourcing.<br />
“The results are clear: The carbon saved<br />
by choosing a Fisker Ocean over an<br />
average gasoline vehicle equals the carbon<br />
sequestered from 39 acres of US forests,”<br />
added Fisker. “We challenge every partner<br />
and find like-minded suppliers that strive to<br />
do better. It’s no accident the Fisker Ocean<br />
is made in a factory powered by renewable<br />
energy. This is only the beginning. We will<br />
strive to improve every step of the way<br />
as we move toward the upcoming Fisker<br />
Alaska, PEAR, and Ronin vehicles.”<br />
Fisker’s LCA is unique in the industry<br />
in that it utilizes mostly primary data<br />
rather than estimates. Tier 1 suppliers<br />
are pushed to provide accurate carbon<br />
accounting, while the company’s processes,<br />
measurement, and the impact of the<br />
earth and the atmosphere are transparent<br />
at unprecedented levels. Fisker has<br />
commenced vehicle deliveries in both<br />
the United States and Europe, following a<br />
unique dual-market certification strategy<br />
as it launched simultaneously. The Fisker<br />
Ocean One is a launch edition model of<br />
the $68,999[1] Fisker Ocean Extreme,<br />
with a 113 kWh battery pack (106 kWh<br />
usable) and an EPA range of 360 miles[2]<br />
on standard 20” wheels and tires, which is<br />
the longest range of any new electric SUV<br />
in its class[3]. In Europe, the Fisker Ocean<br />
Extreme has a WLTP range of 707km/440<br />
UK miles[4] on standard 20” wheels and<br />
tires, which is the longest range of any<br />
electric SUV sold in Europe today. The<br />
all-electric SUV starts at $37,4992 for the<br />
Fisker Ocean Sport trim level in the US.<br />
[1] Estimated pricing shown applies to<br />
the continental US and excludes delivery,<br />
finance, tax, title, registration, and other<br />
government fees. Maintenance is not<br />
included. Pricing is subject to change<br />
and will be based on your final vehicle<br />
configuration. Pricing does not include<br />
government incentives you may be entitled<br />
to. [2] EPA estimated range. Actual results<br />
may vary for many reasons, including<br />
driving conditions, wheel size, state of<br />
battery charge, and how the vehicle is<br />
driven and maintained.<br />
[3] Mid-size SUVs with an MSRP under<br />
$200,000 [4] This WLTP range number<br />
applies to Fisker’s European markets. WLTP<br />
measurements conducted on Fisker Ocean<br />
Extreme with standard 20” and optional<br />
22” wheels. Actual range will vary with<br />
conditions such as external environment,<br />
vehicle configuration, wheel size and<br />
vehicle use.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 46
Europe’s electric car market share overtakes diesel<br />
The sales of new electric battery vehicles<br />
overtook diesel car purchases in Europe<br />
the first time , but activity is far from prepandemic<br />
levels, a lobby group said.<br />
In June, the market share for cars running<br />
on electric batteries rose to 15.1%,<br />
according to the European Automobile<br />
Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), with<br />
over 158,000 units sold in the EU.<br />
Most EU markets recorded double or<br />
even triple-digit percentage gains, with<br />
heavyweights Germany, France and the<br />
Netherlands all posting increases of<br />
over 50%. Petrol remained the new car<br />
fuel type with the largest market share<br />
at 36.3%, while hybrid electric vehicles<br />
were second at 24.3%. Automakers and<br />
consumers are looking to steer away from<br />
vehicles running on polluting fossil fuels to<br />
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and fight<br />
climate change. The ACEA said new EU<br />
car registrations in the first six months of<br />
<strong>2023</strong> increased by 17.9%, with 5.4 million<br />
new units. But it noted that cumulative<br />
volumes for the period were 21% lower<br />
than in 2019, the final full year before the<br />
coronavirus pandemic, which upended the<br />
industry and the global economy.<br />
Lockdowns and restrictions on daily life<br />
decimated economic activity, while the<br />
reopening of economies saw the industry<br />
challenged by disrupted supply chains and<br />
inflation.<br />
A 17.8% growth of the car market in the<br />
EU in June was due to a low comparison<br />
base last year, “primarily driven by vehicle<br />
component shortages,” said the ACEA.<br />
However, “the recent month’s<br />
improvements indicate that the European<br />
automotive industry is recovering<br />
from supply disruptions caused by the<br />
pandemic,” it added.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 48
Lear wins 4 First-Place J.D. Power <strong>2023</strong> Awards,<br />
leads in the number of top 3 finishes<br />
Lear Corporation (NYSE: LEA), a global<br />
automotive technology leader in Seating<br />
and E-Systems, received four first-place<br />
J.D. Power <strong>2023</strong> U.S. Seat Quality and<br />
Satisfaction Study℠ awards.<br />
The company outpaced the competition in<br />
both the number of first-place awards and<br />
the number of its seats finishing in the top<br />
three of the study’s vehicle segments.<br />
The overall results showcase Lear’s<br />
dedication to quality and operational<br />
excellence for its global customers. The<br />
categories and Lear’s results include:<br />
First Place<br />
•Mass Market Small / Compact SUV –<br />
Chevrolet Equinox<br />
•Mass Market Midsize / Large SUV –<br />
Chevrolet Blazer (tie)<br />
•Premium Car – Porsche 718<br />
•Premium SUV – Land Rover Range Rover<br />
Sport<br />
Second Place<br />
•Mass Market Truck / Van – Hyundai Santa<br />
Cruz<br />
Third Place<br />
•Mass Market Small / Compact SUV – Ford<br />
Bronco<br />
•Mass Market Truck / Van – GMC Sierra HD<br />
•Premium Car – Audi A4 and Porsche 911<br />
“This recognition speaks to the steps<br />
we have taken over the past decade<br />
to consistently invest in our talent,<br />
operational excellence, and innovation,”<br />
said Frank Orsini, Executive Vice President<br />
and President, Seating. “At Lear, we will<br />
continue to work to ensure we have the<br />
best capabilities and technology to design<br />
and manufacture world-class quality seats.”<br />
Conducted from February through May<br />
<strong>2023</strong>, the Seat Quality and Satisfaction<br />
Study is based on responses from 93,380<br />
purchasers and lessees of new <strong>2023</strong> modelyear<br />
vehicles who were surveyed after 90<br />
days of ownership. Seat quality is measured<br />
by the number of problems experienced<br />
per 100 vehicles (PP 100) during the first<br />
90 days of ownership, with a lower score<br />
reflecting higher quality.<br />
Turkish economy resilient to global challenges, says VP Yılmaz<br />
The Turkish economy has remained resilient despite the shocks in<br />
the global economy, says Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, reiterating<br />
that the government’s priority will bring down inflation to single<br />
digits. The government spent some 762 billion Turkish Liras for the<br />
earthquake-related expenditure, while at the same time increased<br />
wages and social spending, Yılmaz told lawmakers in parliament<br />
during discussions on the additional budget. “Our economy<br />
performed better in many indicators, chiefly in growth and job<br />
production compared with other countries’ economies despite the<br />
ongoing Ukraine-Russia war. All this showed that our economy’s<br />
sustainable structure remained intact despite the February<br />
earthquakes,” he added.<br />
According to leading indicators, exports climbed to $123.4 billion<br />
in the first six months, while travel revenues stood at a record<br />
high of $43.9 billion, Yılmaz said. “We are expecting record growth<br />
numbers in the upcoming period.”<br />
Bringing down inflation back to single digits will be the<br />
government’s priority in the period ahead, he reiterated.<br />
Yılmaz, however, cautioned against the risks to the current account<br />
deficit, but voiced optimism that the outlook will improve in the<br />
second half of the year. The current account deficit this year will<br />
probably be higher than the gap forecast in the government’s<br />
medium-term program, said Yılmaz, citing gold imports and<br />
imported energy bill as the largest items contributing to the deficit.<br />
The program initially forecast that the current account deficit would<br />
be 2.5 percent of GDP this year.<br />
“The rolling 12-month gold imports amounted to $29.4 billion and<br />
energy imports stood at $72.1 billion. Excluding energy and gold,<br />
Türkiye posted a current account surplus of $41.5 billion.”<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 50
Munich car<br />
show highlights<br />
China’s lead in<br />
electric car race<br />
European carmakers must demonstrate<br />
their capability to compete with China’s<br />
lead in developing cheaper, more<br />
consumer-friendly electric vehicles (EVs),<br />
industry analysts and executives noted at<br />
Munich’s International Motor Show – IAA<br />
mobility show.<br />
“It must be a battle, they (Chinese EV<br />
makers) are very competitive in the electric<br />
car value chain,” Renault CEO Luca de Meo<br />
told RTL Radio, speaking from the car show.<br />
“I think they’re a generation ahead of us.”<br />
“We need to catch up very quickly,” he<br />
added.<br />
Chinese EV makers, including BYD, Nio, and<br />
Xpeng, are all targeting Europe’s EV market,<br />
where sales soared nearly 55% to about<br />
820,000 vehicles in the first seven months<br />
of <strong>2023</strong>, making up about 13% of all car<br />
sales.<br />
According to auto consultancy Inovev, 8%<br />
of new EVs sold in Europe this year were<br />
made by Chinese brands, up from 6% last<br />
year and 4% in 2021.<br />
The Chinese presence is also being felt<br />
at the Munich auto show. About 41%<br />
of exhibitors at this year’s event are<br />
headquartered in Asia, with double the<br />
number of Chinese companies attending,<br />
including EV makers BYD and Xpeng and<br />
battery maker CATL.<br />
“What used to be a performance for the<br />
German car industry to demonstrate<br />
its powerful position is now a meeting<br />
of equals between progressive players<br />
from around the world, especially China,”<br />
said Fabian Brandt of consultancy Oliver<br />
Wyman.<br />
The arrival of Chinese EV makers has raised<br />
concerns they will undercut local carmakers<br />
and come to dominate EV sales.<br />
The average price of an EV in China was<br />
less than 32,000 euros ($35,000) in the first<br />
half of 2022 compared with around 56,000<br />
euros in Europe, according to researchers<br />
at Jato Dynamics.<br />
“Europe needs to stop being naive from a<br />
macroeconomic point of view in the face of<br />
China,” Renault’s engineering head, Gilles<br />
Le Borgne, told journalists, pointing to the<br />
country’s control of the full battery supply<br />
chain. Chinese and German carmakers and<br />
suppliers will also speak at a Chinese EV<br />
conference to be held outside China for the<br />
first time as part of the IAA.<br />
Competition over price will be a key theme<br />
at the conference, with Tesla showcasing its<br />
upgraded Model 3 to go on sale in Europe<br />
in <strong>October</strong> at 42,990 euros ($46,400).<br />
Mercedes-Benz will present its CLA<br />
compact class and BMW its Neue Klasse,<br />
both of which target higher range and<br />
efficiency while halving production costs.<br />
Volkswagen unveiled a show car for its<br />
CUPRA brand and outlined a new designoriented<br />
approach for the company, with<br />
chief designers working more closely<br />
with its 10 brand CEOs for stronger<br />
differentiation.<br />
Mercedes CEO Ola Kaellenius told<br />
journalists it was not “unusual for new<br />
players to come in” at a time when the<br />
industry was undergoing such a huge<br />
transformation.<br />
“There’s nothing else you can do but focus<br />
on your customer,” Kaellenius said.<br />
About 41% of exhibitors at this year’s<br />
event are headquartered in Asia, with the<br />
number of Chinese companies having more<br />
than doubled, including players across<br />
batteries and EV production such as BYD,<br />
CATL and XPeng.<br />
“Europe needs to stop being naive from<br />
a macroeconomic point of view in the<br />
face of China,” Gilles Le Borgne, Renault’s<br />
engineering head, told journalists, pointing<br />
to the country’s control of the entire<br />
battery supply chain.<br />
Chinese and German players, including<br />
top German carmakers and suppliers and<br />
China’s LeapMotors and Horizon Robotics,<br />
will also speak at a Chinese EV conference<br />
set for the first time outside China as part<br />
of the IAA. Competition over price will be<br />
a key theme at the conference, with Tesla<br />
showcasing its upgraded Model 3 to go on<br />
sale in Europe in <strong>October</strong> at 42,990 euros<br />
($46,400). Mercedes-Benz will present<br />
its CLA compact class and BMW its Neue<br />
Klasse, both of which target higher range<br />
and efficiency on a halving of production<br />
costs. Volkswagen unveiled a show car<br />
for its CUPRA brand and outlined a new<br />
design-oriented approach for the company,<br />
with chief designers working more closely<br />
with its 10 brand CEOs for stronger<br />
differentiation.<br />
“What used to be a performance for the<br />
German car industry to demonstrate its<br />
extremely strong position is now a meeting<br />
of equals between progressive players<br />
from around the world, especially China,”<br />
said Fabian Brandt of consultancy Oliver<br />
Wyman.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 52
Türkiye pledges<br />
greater support<br />
for exporters<br />
in 2024<br />
Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said that Türkiye<br />
would continue to support exporters,<br />
stressing that the government’s efforts to<br />
increase financing in the 2024 budget “are<br />
endless.”<br />
Highlighting the significant initiative of<br />
opening loans for exporters through<br />
Türk Eximbank during their tenure, Bolat<br />
emphasized that this move had farreaching<br />
effects. Notably, private banks<br />
responded by swiftly lowering the loan<br />
interest rates from 48% to 25% overnight,<br />
immediately benefiting exporters.<br />
Bolat elaborated on the concept of<br />
the multiplier effect, showcasing this<br />
development as a prime illustration of how<br />
a single strategic action can yield positive<br />
cascading results.<br />
“Furthermore, the central bank took<br />
pivotal steps to empower exporters<br />
by increasing their rediscount credits<br />
fivefold. This strategy, while maintaining<br />
a deliberate reduction in loan volumes to<br />
alleviate demand pressures and combat<br />
inflation concerning domestic demand, has<br />
proven effective,” said the minister.<br />
“The daily limit has been expanded<br />
substantially, surging from TL 300 million<br />
($11 million) to TL 1.5 billion. Out of this<br />
sum, TL 1 billion is allocated through<br />
Eximbank, with an additional TL 500 million<br />
accessible via various banks.”<br />
Bolat said they were “steadfastly<br />
committed to extending our unwavering<br />
support to the export sector, an endeavor<br />
that remains boundless.”<br />
“Looking forward to the 2024 budget, we<br />
are firmly dedicated to augmenting export<br />
support in an unceasing pursuit,” he noted.<br />
Bolat’s remarks came at the Istanbul<br />
Fashion Connection (IFCO) apparel and<br />
fashion fair in Istanbul, during which he<br />
said Türkiye’s monthly exports have risen<br />
from around $1 billion a year to now about<br />
$1 billion every single day.<br />
Türkiye’s exports last year totaled $254<br />
billion, he said, adding that textile and<br />
apparel sector exports amounted to $32<br />
billion.<br />
The mention of Turkish goods is like<br />
mentioning a world brand, he stressed.<br />
Touching on the fair, he said the event<br />
hosts 30,000 visitors and 94 foreign buying<br />
delegates from 26 countries.<br />
He underlined that Türkiye is the thirdlargest<br />
country in Europe in the textile and<br />
apparel sector and seventh in the world.<br />
In Europe, Türkiye is the fourth-largest<br />
glass exporter, third in the white goods<br />
(home appliances) sector, and first in the<br />
agriculture sector, he said.<br />
Türkiye is also the largest carpet exporter in<br />
the world, he added.<br />
The country aims to reach a $400 billion<br />
level in goods exports and $200 billion in<br />
services exports by 2028, Bolat said.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 54
Turkish navy ranks 10th among world’s<br />
strongest navies listing<br />
The World Directory of Modern Military<br />
Warships (WDMMW) ranked Türkiye’s navy<br />
10th in the most recent global assessment<br />
to determine the strongest navies across 36<br />
nations.<br />
The evaluation criteria included the<br />
number of warships and submarines, as<br />
well as aspects such as fleet age, logistical<br />
support, and offensive and defensive<br />
capabilities.<br />
Furthermore, the ranking considered the<br />
overall balance of each navy, analyzing<br />
the variety of asset types they possessed<br />
and whether they focused their resources<br />
in specific areas. The assessment<br />
encompassed most ships while excluding<br />
smaller craft, survey ships, and historical<br />
ceremonial vessels.<br />
The ranking also made distinctions<br />
between various classes of combat ships,<br />
encompassing both relatively compact<br />
corvettes and frigates and larger destroyers<br />
and cruisers.<br />
Each navy was given a final “True Value<br />
Rating” to measure them against one<br />
another.<br />
According to the WDMMW report,<br />
Türkiye – which ranked 10th has most<br />
recently conducted a global assessment<br />
to determine the strongest navies across<br />
36 nations which had a fleet comprising<br />
90 active units as of April, which included<br />
one helicopter carrier, 12 submarines,<br />
16 frigates, 10 corvettes, 11 mine/<br />
countermine warships, 35 offshore-patrol<br />
vessels, and five amphibious-assault<br />
vessels.<br />
Türkiye’s navy did not possess any<br />
destroyers or cruisers.<br />
The country’s strategic significance lies<br />
in its control of the maritime chokepoint<br />
connecting the Mediterranean and the<br />
Black Sea.<br />
The WDMMW assessment indicated that<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 56
the average age of the Turkish navy was<br />
18.8 years, and its overall force balance<br />
was considered to be “average.”<br />
Based on the True Value Rating, Türkiye<br />
scored 80.5 in the evaluation.<br />
Among the country’s neighbors, Greece<br />
ranked 22nd on the listing.<br />
The country has 11 submarines, three<br />
frigates, three mine/countermine warfare<br />
ships, and 36 offshore-patrol vessels,<br />
making up its 63 active units as of<br />
November, according to the WDMMW.<br />
It said that Greece was focused on offshore<br />
vessels and that the fleet represented<br />
“over half of all fighting strength.” The<br />
WDMMW described the rest of Greece’s<br />
fleet as “an aging fleet of submarines and<br />
frigates for the most part.”<br />
Greece has no destroyers, corvettes,<br />
cruisers, or amphibious-assault vessels and<br />
the navy’s force balance was “fair” while its<br />
median hull age was 27.5 years.<br />
The report gave Greece’s navy a True Value<br />
Rating of 47.2.<br />
Egypt, a coastal neighbor of Türkiye on the<br />
Eastern Mediterranean ranked closer to the<br />
country as it became the 13th country with<br />
the strongest navy.<br />
The WDMMW said Egypt’s navy is the<br />
largest such force in Africa or the Middle<br />
East with 107 active units as of November.<br />
Its navy includes eight submarines,<br />
12 frigates, seven corvettes, 18 mine/<br />
countermine warfare ships, 48 offshorepatrol<br />
vessels, and 12 amphibious-assault<br />
vessels.<br />
It also has two helicopter carriers, which<br />
the WDMMW said made it “the only<br />
African/Middle East power to have aircraft<br />
carriers in the force.”<br />
It has no destroyers or cruisers and only<br />
has one vessel in production.<br />
Yet, the country has an aging fleet. The<br />
WDMMW said that Egypt’s force balance<br />
was “average” and that its median hull age<br />
is 27.5 years, with the navy acquiring a True<br />
Value Rating of 72.4.<br />
According to the WDMMW report, the<br />
top ten countries with the most powerful<br />
navies worldwide are the United States,<br />
China, Russia, Indonesia, South Korea,<br />
Japan, India, France, the U.K., and Türkiye,<br />
respectively.<br />
The report pointed out that, Russia,<br />
among the top three, had a lot of aging<br />
units, including its only aircraft carrier, the<br />
Admiral Kuznetsov.<br />
Many of its 58 submarines, 12 destroyers,<br />
and four cruisers are also showing their<br />
age. The report said Russia’s median hull<br />
age was 30 years.<br />
The report highlighted Russia’s efforts<br />
to enhance its naval capabilities through<br />
a modernization initiative, involving the<br />
procurement of 82 new units. Notably,<br />
the country demonstrated significant<br />
dedication to acquiring advanced<br />
corvette warships, submarines, and mine/<br />
countermine warfare vessels. According to<br />
the WDMMW evaluation, Russia received a<br />
high True Value Rating of 242.3, indicating<br />
its substantial naval strength. Furthermore,<br />
the assessment categorized Russia’s force<br />
balance as “good,” reflecting a wellbalanced<br />
and formidable navy.<br />
During Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its<br />
military suffered notable equipment losses,<br />
but its navy remained relatively unscathed<br />
as it did not play a significant role in the<br />
conflict. One significant setback for Russia<br />
was the destruction of its flagship in the<br />
Black Sea, the Moskva, which was targeted<br />
and taken out by a Ukrainian missile strike.<br />
For the U.S. Navy, the WDMMW gave it<br />
a True Value Rating of 323.9, its highest<br />
score. It said the U.S. scored highly because<br />
it “features a broad mix of warship and<br />
submarine types as well as balance<br />
strengthened by overall numbers (quantity)<br />
– pulling ahead by its vaunted carrier fleet.”<br />
The listing said the U.S. Navy had 243<br />
active units in November, comprising 11<br />
aircraft carriers, 68 submarines, 22 cruisers,<br />
70 destroyers, 21 corvettes, eight mine/<br />
countermine warfare ships, 10 offshorepatrol<br />
vessels, and 33 amphibious-assault<br />
vessels. It has no frigates, and its median<br />
hull age is 23.3 years. It said the U.S. had a<br />
“good” balance in its asset types.<br />
<strong>October</strong><br />
<strong>2023</strong><br />
58
BRD extends fresh $109M loan<br />
tailored for Türkiye quake region<br />
Europe’s development bank said it was providing a $109 million<br />
loan to the largest private lender in Türkiye for on-lending to<br />
businesses and individuals affected by the devastating earthquakes<br />
that struck the country’s southeastern region.<br />
The loan to Işbank is part of the European Bank for Reconstruction<br />
and Development’s (EBRD) Türkiye Disaster Response Framework,<br />
launched in the aftermath of the earthquakes in early February that<br />
killed over 50,000 people.<br />
The disaster toppled hundreds of thousands of buildings, left<br />
millions homeless and severely damaged the southeastern region’s<br />
infrastructure. Business groups, economists and the government<br />
have said rebuilding could cost more than $100 billion.<br />
The EBRD said proceeds of the loan will be used to remedy some<br />
of the damage to the region’s economy and seek to preserve the<br />
livelihoods and human capital of the affected cities.<br />
“By providing financial support to businesses and individuals, the<br />
loan aims to address the most immediate funding needs of the<br />
local population in those cities, bringing financial relief to the<br />
region’s private sector,” the lender said in a statement.<br />
The EBRD previously announced a 1.5 billion-euro ($1.65-billion),<br />
two-year investment plan for the region, to lessen the economic<br />
impact of the disaster.<br />
Arthur Poghosyan, EBRD deputy head of Türkiye Financial<br />
Institutions, said their rapid progress in transactions under the<br />
Türkiye Disaster Response Framework is vital for the recovery and<br />
reconstruction of the region.<br />
“We are confident that as our long-standing partner, Işbank, will<br />
disburse these funds efficiently and successfully to those in need<br />
of financial relief while they are recovering their economic wellbeing,”<br />
Poghosyan noted.<br />
The 600-million-euro Türkiye Disaster Response Framework, the<br />
first such framework deployed in the EBRD regions, aims to provide<br />
support for companies and individuals affected by the disaster.<br />
It also seeks to offer new lending for companies participating in<br />
recovery and reconstruction efforts in the area, strengthening the<br />
private sector’s role in disaster response.<br />
Close to $350 million has been allocated to the EBRD’s partner<br />
banks under this framework to date, including the loan to Işbank.<br />
Işbank Deputy Chief Executive Gamze Yalçın said the loan<br />
agreement carries great importance in terms of supporting the<br />
quake-hit region.<br />
“The EBRD’s invaluable support for the Turkish economy and the<br />
affected region under the DRF is highly appreciated. Işbank Group,<br />
with its own inclusive TL 10 billion disaster package, will also<br />
continue to support the region with this new initiative,” said Yalçın.<br />
To date, the EBRD has invested more than 18 billion euros in<br />
various sectors of the Turkish economy, largely in the private sector.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 62
Turkish finance<br />
minister meets<br />
dozens of int’l<br />
investors in<br />
Istanbul<br />
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet<br />
Şimşek met with dozens of international<br />
investors and pledged to continue hiking<br />
interest rates, even as economic growth<br />
slows.<br />
The eight-hour meeting in Istanbul included<br />
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek and<br />
Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan<br />
and 40 investors discussing monetary and<br />
fiscal policy and the economic outlook.<br />
The meeting marks a more transparent<br />
market turn by the authorities. It comes<br />
two months after President Tayyip Erdoğan<br />
named Şimşek, who is highly regarded<br />
by financial markets, as well as Erkan, a<br />
former senior U.S.-based bank executive,<br />
in moves seen as heralding a switch to<br />
tighter interest rate policy. According to<br />
the sources, Şimşek stressed that reducing<br />
inflation was the priority and struck a<br />
confident tone that policy was returning to<br />
more normal settings.<br />
He told investors that Erdoğan fully<br />
supported the monetary tightening and<br />
that “gradual” rate hikes would continue,<br />
pinching credit and leading to somewhat<br />
slower economic growth but not a sudden<br />
stop, one of the sources said.<br />
The central bank under Erkan has raised its<br />
key rate by 900 basis points to 17.5% since<br />
June, though the pace of tightening missed<br />
market expectations. It more than doubled<br />
its year-end inflation forecast to 58%,<br />
meeting expectations.<br />
Under the previous governor, the bank had<br />
slashed rates to 8.5% from 19% in 2021, in<br />
line with Erdoğan’s unorthodox belief that<br />
high rates fuel inflation. That sparked a<br />
currency crisis and the lira weakened 44%<br />
in 2021, 30% in 2022, and another 30% so<br />
far this year. Inflation touched a 24-year<br />
peak of 85.5% last <strong>October</strong>. It eased but<br />
rose sharply again in July to nearly 48%.<br />
The meeting was hosted by Wall Street<br />
bank JPMorgan, with the participation of<br />
Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, Ziraat Bank<br />
CEO and Turkish Banking Association head<br />
Alpaslan Cakar and the heads of Türkiye’s<br />
wealth fund and treasury debt office were<br />
also scheduled to speak; the program<br />
showed.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 64
Turkish defense firms listed among world’s top 100<br />
Four Turkish defense magnates made it to<br />
the top 100 defense firms list published by<br />
the U.S.-based Defense News Magazine.<br />
Türkiye’s Aselsan was at 47th place in the<br />
annual ranking, up from 49th last year,<br />
said the outlet that describes itself as “the<br />
authoritative, independent, professional<br />
news source for the world’s defense<br />
decision-makers.”<br />
Turkish Aerospace Industry (TAI) was at<br />
58, up from 67, while missile producer<br />
Roketsan climbed to 80th place from 86th.<br />
The Military Factory and Shipyard<br />
Management Inc. (Asfat) also entered the<br />
list for the first time and took the 100th<br />
spot.<br />
Aselsan’s defense revenues totaled $2<br />
billion in 2022, while TAI’s revenues<br />
amounted to $1.48 billion, Roketsan’s<br />
$873.3 million, and Asfat’s $443.5 million.<br />
Lockheed Martin was in first place again<br />
with defense revenues of $63.3 billion on<br />
the list, followed by RTX with $39.6 billion,<br />
and Northrop Grumman with $32.4 billion.<br />
While the top three firms were from the<br />
U.S., six out of the top 10 were U.S.-based,<br />
three from China, and one from the U.K.<br />
New period of dialogue on trade begins with EU<br />
A new period of dialogue has begun between Türkiye and the<br />
European Union on trade, the Trade Ministry has said, following<br />
a virtual meeting with Trade Minister Ömer Bolat and Valdis<br />
Dombrovskis, the vice president of the European Commission.<br />
“During the meeting, we agreed on a common roadmap for the<br />
development of commercial and economic relations between<br />
Türkiye and the EU in the new period,” Bolat wrote on social media.<br />
The EU is Türkiye’s largest trading partner.<br />
The bilateral trade volume reached a record $200 billion last year.<br />
The bloc absorbed more than 40 percent of Türkiye’s exports in the<br />
first seven months of <strong>2023</strong>, with shipments to the EU amounting to<br />
$60.54 billion, according to the latest data from the Trade Ministry.<br />
“Within the scope of the Trade Working Group between Türkiye<br />
and the EU, we will discuss our current technical issues and<br />
cooperation opportunities before the start of negotiations for the<br />
modernization of the Customs Union, and then we will be in close<br />
contact for a strong dialogue in all areas of our trade,” Bolat said.<br />
Bolat and Dombrovskis also agreed to further meetings in Brussels<br />
in September, according to the statement from the Trade Ministry.<br />
“A constructive first discussion with the Trade Minister Bolat<br />
on how to re-invigorate our cooperation and EU-Türkiye trade<br />
relations,” wrote Dombrovskis on a social media post. The two also<br />
discussed the global challenges of food security and the need to<br />
continue the Black Sea Grain Initiative, said the EU official.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 66
Türkiye aims to reach $400B level in goods<br />
exports and $200B in services exports<br />
The mention of Turkish goods is like<br />
mentioning a world brand, the Turkish<br />
trade minister said.<br />
Speaking at the Istanbul Fashion<br />
Connection (IFCO) apparel and fashion<br />
fair in Istanbul, Omer Bolat said Türkiye’s<br />
monthly exports have risen from around $1<br />
billion a year to now about $1 billion every<br />
single day.<br />
Türkiye’s exports last year totaled $254<br />
billion, he said, adding that textile and<br />
apparel sector exports amounted to $32<br />
billion.<br />
Touching on the fair, he said the event<br />
is hosting 30,000 visitors and 94 foreign<br />
buying delegates from 26 countries.<br />
He underlined that Türkiye is the thirdlargest<br />
country in Europe in the textile and<br />
apparel sector, and seventh in the world.<br />
In Europe, Türkiye is the fourth-largest<br />
glass exporter, third in the white goods<br />
(home appliances) sector, and first in the<br />
agriculture sector, he said.<br />
Türkiye is also the largest carpet exporter in<br />
the world, he added.<br />
The country aims to reach $400 billion<br />
level in goods exports and $200 billion in<br />
services exports by 2028, Bolat said.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 68
China reports<br />
biggest drop in<br />
exports since<br />
2020<br />
China suffered its biggest drop in exports<br />
for more than two years, according to<br />
official figures, as the world’s secondlargest<br />
economy struggles with sluggish<br />
global demand and a domestic slowdown.<br />
The data will likely ramp up calls for leaders<br />
to do more to revive growth, having laid<br />
out a series of stimulus measures.<br />
Sales of Chinese products to foreign<br />
markets plunged 14.5 percent on-year, a<br />
third consecutive drop, according to the<br />
customs authority.<br />
The decline was bigger than expected and<br />
the heaviest since a 17.2 percent drop in<br />
January-February 2020, when the economy<br />
came to a standstill in the early weeks of<br />
the COVIC-19 pandemic.<br />
Apart from a brief rebound in March and<br />
April, exports have been in constant decline<br />
since <strong>October</strong>. The threat of recession in<br />
the United States and Europe, combined<br />
with high inflation, has contributed to<br />
weakening international demand for<br />
Chinese products in recent months.<br />
<strong>Exports</strong> dived 12.4 percent on-year in June.<br />
Shipments to the European Union in the<br />
first seven months of the year came to<br />
2.08 trillion yuan ($288.9 billion), down<br />
2.6 percent, Meanwhile, imports fell for<br />
the ninth month in a row in July, shrinking<br />
12.4 percent in a sign of sluggish domestic<br />
demand.<br />
The trade figures are the latest indicators<br />
that China’s post-COVID recovery has run<br />
out of steam. The economy grew just 0.8<br />
percent on-quarter in April-June, while<br />
youth unemployment has reached record<br />
highs of more than 20 percent.<br />
July’s official manufacturing purchasing<br />
managers’ index -- a key measure of factory<br />
output -- came in at 49.3, below the<br />
50-point mark that separates expansion<br />
and contraction. And the property sector<br />
remains in turmoil, with major developers<br />
failing to complete housing projects,<br />
triggering protests and mortgage boycotts<br />
from homebuyers. The country’s top<br />
leaders, known as the Politburo, have<br />
warned that the economy faces “new<br />
difficulties and challenges” as well as<br />
“hidden dangers in key areas”.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 70
China tags Türkiye safe for post-pandemic tourism<br />
Beijing lifted a COVID-19 era ban on<br />
outbound group tours to dozens of<br />
countries including Türkiye, the United<br />
States and Japan, a move that could<br />
see crowds of Chinese tourists return to<br />
destinations around the world.<br />
China cut itself off from the world in 2020<br />
as part of a strict zero COVID-19 strategy,<br />
using visa suspensions and lengthy<br />
quarantines to curb the import of virus<br />
cases into the country.<br />
The announcement is the latest move<br />
towards reopening, after the Chinese<br />
government dropped its containment<br />
measures abruptly in December.<br />
“From now on, travel agencies across the<br />
country and online travel companies will<br />
resume operating outbound group tours”<br />
to more than 70 countries, including<br />
Türkiye, the United States, United Kingdom,<br />
Japan and South Korea, the Chinese<br />
Ministry of Culture and Tourism said in a<br />
statement.<br />
Among numerous others, the list also gave<br />
the green light for trips to most European<br />
Union member states, India, Pakistan,<br />
and Australia. The inclusion of Australia<br />
coincides with a thawing in the frostiness<br />
between Canberra and Beijing that has<br />
dominated relations over the last few<br />
years. China announced it was removing<br />
extra tariffs on Australian barley imposed in<br />
2020 at the height of a bitter dispute with<br />
the then-conservative government over<br />
issues including China’s overseas influence<br />
operations. Chinese tour groups had<br />
already received permission to visit a small<br />
number of countries earlier this year under<br />
a trial program, including tourist magnets<br />
Thailand, Italy and France.<br />
The tourism ministry said outbound<br />
tourism had been developing in a stable<br />
manner since the start of the trial period,<br />
“playing a positive role in promoting<br />
tourism exchanges and cooperation”.<br />
China had the largest outbound tourism<br />
market in the world in 2019, with mainland<br />
Chinese residents taking 155 million trips<br />
abroad that year, according to consulting<br />
firm McKinsey.<br />
That outflow narrowed to a trickle in the<br />
past three years as Chinese authorities<br />
restricted passport renewals and cut<br />
international flights in a bid to deter travel.<br />
“Currently, international passenger flights<br />
continue to resume, and the desire<br />
of Chinese people to travel abroad is<br />
increasing,” the foreign ministry said in<br />
a statement. In early December, Chinese<br />
authorities effectively ended the country’s<br />
regime of mass testing, lockdowns and long<br />
quarantines – but the abrupt reversal led to<br />
a spike in COVID-19 cases.<br />
Beijing announced in late December that<br />
inbound travelers to the country would no<br />
longer need to quarantine from January<br />
8, but kept in place visa restrictions on<br />
foreigners. China resumed issuing a range<br />
of visas to foreigners in March, but inbound<br />
tourism remains at a fraction of prepandemic<br />
levels.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 72
Türkiye’s tourist<br />
arrivals, revenue<br />
surge reaffirm<br />
buoyant season<br />
Foreign arrivals in Türkiye jumped by<br />
nearly 20% in the first half of the year,<br />
according to official data that also showed<br />
tourism revenues surged by almost a third,<br />
maintaining a strong trend in the industry<br />
that is a vital economic source.<br />
Nearly 19.62 million foreigners arrived<br />
from January through June, Culture and<br />
Tourism Minister Mehmet Nuri Ersoy said,<br />
marking a 19.88% increase from some<br />
16.37 million a year ago. Arrivals in June<br />
alone jumped 11.35% year-over-year to<br />
more than 5.58 million.<br />
This year’s momentum has been driven by<br />
an influx of holidaymakers from Europe,<br />
particularly Germany and the United<br />
Kingdom, besides arrivals from Russia,<br />
mainly due to flight restrictions imposed by<br />
Western nations over Moscow’s invasion of<br />
Ukraine. The first-half figure reaches nearly<br />
22.95 million when visitors from abroad<br />
of Turkish origin are taken into account,<br />
marking a 17.5% increase from some<br />
19.53 million in 2022, Ersoy told a news<br />
conference to announce the data.<br />
Arrivals from Russia reached 2.61 million<br />
in January-June, the Culture and Tourism<br />
Ministry data showed, compared to nearly<br />
1.46 million in the same period a year<br />
ago. They were followed by 2.27 million<br />
tourists from Germany and 1.49 million<br />
from the U.K. About 1.3 million Bulgarians<br />
and over 1 million Iranians visited Türkiye<br />
in the first half. Tourism revenues surged<br />
27% year-over-year to $21.7 billion in the<br />
first six months, Ersoy said, noting a more<br />
than 11% jump to almost $100 per capita<br />
overnight income.<br />
“The per capita overnight income, which<br />
was $89.2 in the first six months of 2022,<br />
was realized as $99.9 in the first six months<br />
of <strong>2023</strong>. In other words, there is an<br />
increase of 11.9%,” the minister noted.<br />
“Our income per person per night had<br />
dropped to $62. Currently, Türkiye has<br />
started to see $100s.”<br />
Revenues in the second quarter jumped<br />
23.1% year-over-year to $12.98 billion,<br />
Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) data<br />
showed. Ersoy said the average length of<br />
stay had decreased, driven mainly by the<br />
intensive housing purchases by Russian<br />
citizens and seasonal rental of these<br />
residences to other tourists. He also cited<br />
the recession challenges plaguing the world<br />
and the contraction in purchasing power,<br />
leading to hotel stays falling.<br />
“The duration of stay decreased from<br />
10.5 overnight stays to an average of 9.9<br />
overnight stays. There is a contraction of<br />
5.7%,” said the minister.<br />
Ersoy also acknowledged occupancy rates in<br />
hotels catering to high-income groups came<br />
in below expectations in the first half of<br />
the year. The devastating earthquakes that<br />
struck southeastern Türkiye in early February<br />
and the presidential and parliamentary<br />
elections coincided with the early booking<br />
period, said Ersoy.<br />
“The fact that the cool weather extended<br />
until mid-July causes last-minute bookings<br />
to slip,” he added. Tourism revenue is critical<br />
as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his<br />
government focus on reducing the current<br />
account deficit to tackle stubborn inflation.<br />
Last year’s complete rebound from the<br />
pandemic fallout saw the number of tourists<br />
near a record, generating all-time high<br />
revenues and prompting the government to<br />
raise its annual estimates.<br />
The government sees foreign arrivals<br />
reaching 60 million this year, which it<br />
estimates will hit 90 million in 2028. For the<br />
income, it sees it rising to $56 billion this<br />
year and $100 billion five years from now.<br />
Foreign visitors surged 80.33% to 44.6<br />
million in 2022, just shy of the peak of 45.1<br />
million in 2019. The figure is compared to<br />
the 24.71 million arrivals in 2021 and 12.73<br />
million in 2020. Income in 2022 climbed<br />
53.4% to a record high of nearly $46.3 billion<br />
as the lingering effects of the coronavirus<br />
pandemic dissipated and Russian arrivals<br />
rocketed after Moscow invaded Ukraine<br />
on Feb. 24. Last year’s income blew past<br />
the previous high of $38.4 billion in 2019<br />
before the pandemic hit. The figure stood<br />
at $30.2 billion in 2021 after the outbreak<br />
more than halved it to just $14.8 billion in<br />
2020. Tourism contributes about 10% to<br />
Türkiye’s gross domestic product (GDP). In<br />
addition, around 1.7 million people worked<br />
in accommodation and food services in 2022<br />
– about 5% of total employment.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 74
Türkiye ramps up financing by 10-fold to help boost exports<br />
Türkiye’s central bank doubled the banks’<br />
daily limit to extend rediscount credits to<br />
support exporters’ access to financing,<br />
in a move that officials say reflects the<br />
government’s determination to prioritize<br />
outbound shipments.<br />
The government has been seeking ways<br />
to curb the stubborn trade imbalance by<br />
lowering dependence on imports and<br />
boosting exports.<br />
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye<br />
(CBRT) said it lifted banks’ daily limit to<br />
extend rediscount credits to TL 3 billion<br />
($111 million) from TL 1.5 billion.<br />
In July, the authority decided to increase<br />
the limit for extending these loans to TL 1.5<br />
billion from TL 300 million.<br />
“We have increased the daily credit limit to<br />
our exporters by tenfold in a three-month<br />
period,” said Treasury and Finance Minister<br />
Mehmet Şimşek.<br />
“This shows how serious we are about<br />
prioritizing exports,” Şimşek wrote on<br />
social media platform X, formerly known as<br />
Twitter.<br />
Türkiye needs to make more exportoriented<br />
investments for a permanent<br />
increase in prosperity, the minister<br />
stressed. “By ensuring price stability in<br />
the medium term, we will ensure that our<br />
companies can access subordinated credit<br />
in global markets.”<br />
CBRT Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan echoed<br />
Şimşek’s view.<br />
“We prioritize access to financing for<br />
our exporters who contribute to the<br />
current account balance,” Erkan said in a<br />
statement. We will continue to support<br />
practices to increase the share of SMEs<br />
(small- and medium-sized enterprises) in<br />
rediscount loans.”<br />
She emphasized the central bank’s<br />
commitment to its roadmap, which<br />
includes selective credit tightening<br />
measures to expedite the establishment of<br />
price stability.<br />
Erkan cited a priority focus on ensuring<br />
financial access for exporters contributing<br />
to the country’s current account balance<br />
during the transition to a lower inflation<br />
rate.<br />
“We are diligently implementing our<br />
roadmap in conjunction with selective<br />
credit tightening measures to achieve price<br />
stability as quickly as possible. During the<br />
transition to lower inflation, we prioritize<br />
facilitating access to finance for exporters<br />
who contribute to the current account<br />
balance,” she said.<br />
Official data showed Türkiye’s current<br />
account swung back to a deficit in July after<br />
a rare surplus a month earlier, propelled<br />
mainly by the trade imbalance.<br />
The current account registered a nearly<br />
$5.5 billion shortfall versus a revised<br />
surplus of $651 million in June. The figure<br />
came in higher than market expectations.<br />
The gap for the January-July period<br />
reached $42.3 billion, nearly matching<br />
the government’s year-end forecast of<br />
$42.5 billion that was outlined in the new<br />
medium-term program, unveiled.<br />
The forecasts in the new economic<br />
roadmap see the current account deficit<br />
falling to around $34.7 billion, or 3.1% of<br />
gross domestic product (GDP), in 2024,<br />
down from about 4% projected for this<br />
year.<br />
Şimşek earlier said the shortfall is<br />
expected to shrink to around $40 billion in<br />
December due to a slowdown in consumer<br />
loan growth and a sharp rise in tourism<br />
revenues.Data revealed that the 12-month<br />
rolling gap surged to $58.5 billion,<br />
equivalent to approximately 6% of GDP,<br />
according to economists’ calculations.<br />
Türkiye’s foreign trade deficit shrank by<br />
21.2% year-over-year to $8.9 billion in<br />
August, according to official data. <strong>Exports</strong><br />
rose 1.6% to $21.6 billion, the best August<br />
level ever, while imports dropped 6.3% to<br />
$30.5 billion.<br />
The January-August trade shortfall is still<br />
12.1% higher than a year ago and reached<br />
$82.4 billion. Outbound shipments in the<br />
eight-month period slipped 0.4% to $164.9<br />
billion. Imports rose 3.5% to $247.3 billion.<br />
The increase in rediscount loan limits<br />
should encourage new endeavors by<br />
exporters, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said.<br />
Bolat said ensuring growth in exports is<br />
the government’s biggest goal on its path<br />
to a lower foreign trade gap and current<br />
account deficit.<br />
“Financing support provided to exporters<br />
has been increased by tenfold in 1.5<br />
months. We now also expect them<br />
(exporters) to make new moves in exports<br />
now,” the minister told an event in the<br />
Aegean province of Izmir.<br />
The decision will promote increased<br />
production and exports without the burden<br />
of financing constraints, said Turkish<br />
Exporters Assembly Chair Mustafa Gültepe.<br />
Gültepe highlighted that exporters have<br />
faced difficulties accessing affordable<br />
financing for an extended period. But he<br />
said the new economic management has<br />
taken significant steps to prioritize access<br />
to financing for exporters.<br />
“This starts a process where SMEs receive a<br />
larger share of loans, and high-performing<br />
exporters are prioritized,” Gültepe said in a<br />
statement.<br />
“Increasing rediscount loan limits allows us<br />
to overcome a significant hurdle, enabling<br />
our exporters to focus more on production<br />
and exports without wasting time seeking<br />
financing.”<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 76
Electric car makers race for supplies of lithium for batteries<br />
Threatened by possible shortages of lithium<br />
for electric car batteries, automakers are<br />
racing to lock in supplies of the onceobscure<br />
“white gold” in a politically and<br />
environmentally fraught competition from<br />
China to Nevada to Chile.<br />
General Motors and the parent company<br />
of China’s BYD Auto went straight to the<br />
source and bought stakes in lithium miners,<br />
a rare step in an industry that relies on<br />
outside vendors for copper and other raw<br />
materials.<br />
Others are investing in lithium refining or<br />
ventures to recycle the silvery-white metal<br />
from used batteries.<br />
A shortfall in lithium supplies would be<br />
an obstacle for government and industry<br />
plans to ramp up sales to tens of millions of<br />
electric vehicles a year.<br />
It is fueling political conflict over resources<br />
and complaints about the environmental<br />
cost of extracting them.<br />
Ford Motor has signed contracts stretching<br />
up to 11 years into the future with lithium<br />
suppliers on two continents. Volkswagen<br />
and Honda are trying to reduce their need<br />
for freshly mined ore by forming recycling<br />
ventures.<br />
Global lithium output is on track to triple<br />
this decade, but sales of electric SUVs,<br />
sports cars and sedans that rose 55 percent<br />
last year threaten to outrun that.<br />
Each battery requires about eight kilograms<br />
of lithium, plus cobalt, nickel and other<br />
metals.<br />
Adding to uncertainty, lithium has emerged<br />
as another conflict in strained U.S.-Chinese<br />
relations.<br />
Beijing, Washington and other<br />
governments see metal supplies for<br />
electric vehicles as a strategic issue and are<br />
tightening controls on access.<br />
Other governments including Indonesia,<br />
Chile and Zimbabwe are trying to maximize<br />
their return on deposits of lithium, cobalt<br />
and nickel by requiring miners to invest in<br />
refining and processing before they can<br />
export.<br />
GM is buying direct access to lithium by<br />
investing $650 million in the Canadian<br />
developer of a Nevada mine. In return, GM<br />
says it will get enough for 1 million vehicles<br />
a year.<br />
BYD Auto’s parent company, battery maker<br />
BYD Co., has announced more than $5<br />
billion in investments in lithium mining and<br />
refining over the past 18 months.<br />
Despite rising output, the industry may face<br />
shortages of lithium and cobalt as early as<br />
2025 if enough isn’t invested in production,<br />
according to Leonardo Paoli and Timur Gul<br />
of the International Energy Agency.<br />
“Supply side bottlenecks are becoming<br />
a real challenge,” said Paoli and Gul in a<br />
report last year.<br />
Alastair Bedwell of GlobalData said miners<br />
are reluctant to “go all out” on lithium until<br />
they are sure the industry won’t switch to<br />
batteries made with other metals.<br />
Developing lithium sources is a yearslong<br />
process.<br />
Mines that came online in 2010-19 took on<br />
average more than 16 years from discovery<br />
to the start of production, according to<br />
Paoli and Gul of the IEA.<br />
“These long lead times raise questions<br />
about the ability of supply to ramp up,”<br />
they wrote.<br />
Worldwide lithium resources are estimated<br />
at 80 million tons by the U.S. Geological<br />
Survey.<br />
Bolivia’s are the biggest at 21 millions tons,<br />
followed by Australia with 17 million and<br />
Chile with 9 million. China has 4.5 million<br />
tons of known reserves and the United<br />
States has 1 million.<br />
Forecasts of annual global production<br />
range as high as 1.5 million tons by 2030.<br />
But demand, if EV sales keep rising at<br />
double-digit annual rates, is forecast to<br />
increase to up to 3 million tons.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 78
Türkiye eager to<br />
avoid recession<br />
while fighting<br />
inflation<br />
Amid the ongoing battle against<br />
stubborn inflation, Türkiye’s top economy<br />
officials emphasized the necessity of<br />
simultaneously maintaining production and<br />
exports, which they say will be crucial in<br />
preventing a potential slip into recession.<br />
“While fighting inflation we are making an<br />
effort to sustain production and exports<br />
so as not to fall into recession. We must<br />
do both at the same time,” Vice President<br />
Cevdet Yılmaz told reporters after meeting<br />
bankers in Istanbul.<br />
Further underscoring the government’s<br />
determination, Treasury and Finance<br />
Minister Mehmet Şimşek stressed<br />
consolidation of macro-financial stability<br />
as the administration’s top priority in the<br />
coming period.<br />
Şimşek added that they are moving toward<br />
a rationalization in monetary policy for this<br />
purpose.<br />
“For sustainable high growth, investment,<br />
employment, production and export cycles<br />
must be prioritized. We are extremely<br />
committed to this issue,” he told an event<br />
in the southeastern Batman province.<br />
“Our tax, credit, and incentive policies will<br />
be shaped accordingly,” Şimşek affirmed.<br />
Since the May elections, President<br />
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government<br />
orchestrated a U-turn away from policies<br />
based on interest rate cuts that had been<br />
accompanied by a steep fall in the Turkish<br />
lira and soaring inflation.<br />
Since June, the country’s central bank has<br />
reversed and hiked its policy rate by 900<br />
basis points to address inflation, which<br />
leaped to a 25-year high above 85% last<br />
year but subsequently eased to as low as<br />
38.21% in June.<br />
It rose again to nearly 48% due to the lira’s<br />
decline and various tax hikes and officials<br />
have acknowledged it would rise further<br />
toward the year-end.<br />
Erdoğan said after a Cabinet meeting that<br />
the government would lower inflation to<br />
single digits but will not sacrifice economic<br />
growth and employment, comments which<br />
were echoed by Yılmaz.<br />
The vice president stressed Türkiye must<br />
sustain its push on production and exports<br />
to prevent the economy from falling into<br />
recession even as it fights inflation.<br />
“We need to follow the right policies with<br />
patience,” Yılmaz said.<br />
The central bank doubled its year-end<br />
inflation forecast to 58% and vowed to<br />
continue gradual monetary tightening. The<br />
end-2024 inflation prediction has been<br />
raised to 33% from 8.8%. The forecast for<br />
the end of 2025 stands at 15%.<br />
Şimşek said Türkiye aims to lower soaring<br />
inflation permanently after a transitional<br />
period where prices remain high.<br />
“As you can see from the central bank’s<br />
projections, inflation will continue to rise<br />
temporarily due to certain factors in the<br />
coming months,” the minister said.<br />
In the meeting with the finance sector,<br />
the issue of new financial instruments<br />
came onto the agenda with sector<br />
representatives having spoken of<br />
difficulties in financing long-term projects<br />
given the short-term deposits in the sector,<br />
Yılmaz said.<br />
He also underscored that the meeting also<br />
addressed the issue of encouraging firsttime<br />
house buyers, adding that the central<br />
bank and regulator were working on the<br />
issue and that the housing supply needed<br />
to be increased.<br />
Yılmaz said the government’s new<br />
medium-term program (MTP), setting<br />
out its economic plans in detail, would be<br />
announced in the first half of September.<br />
Şimşek said the MTP will feature key<br />
structural reforms and will serve as a<br />
“crucial” guide and road map for both the<br />
private and public sectors.<br />
He further stated that Türkiye’s budgetary<br />
balances were being shaped according<br />
to specified criteria. Simultaneously, he<br />
said fiscal discipline was reinstated and<br />
stressed efforts to drive inflation down<br />
to single digits through monetary policy<br />
adjustments.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 80
China’s army<br />
media hails<br />
progress of<br />
Turkish defense<br />
industry<br />
The official news outlet of China’s Peoples’<br />
Liberation Army (PLA) has praised the<br />
rapid advancement of the Turkish defense<br />
industry, in particular Turkish drone<br />
magnate Baykar, highlighting how it surged<br />
ahead using indigenous resources.<br />
In a full-page story, the PLA Daily covered<br />
the Istanbul-based Baykar’s milestones,<br />
which inked the largest export deal in<br />
Türkiye’s history with Saudi Arabia, which<br />
has reverberated globally.<br />
It noted that Türkiye boasted powerful<br />
defensive capabilities in the past but that<br />
its dependence on foreign arms and other<br />
hardware had increased after World War II.<br />
The new model of unmanned warfare<br />
that emerged in the 1990s opened new<br />
opportunities in the defense field, it added.<br />
As one of the defense companies<br />
established in Türkiye during this period,<br />
Baykar made significant strides in the<br />
development of unmanned flight systems<br />
despite its short history of 20 years.<br />
Türkiye announced a plan to develop<br />
domestic UAV systems in the 2000s and<br />
encouraged private enterprises to work in<br />
the field, the PLA Daily said.<br />
This call was heeded by Baykar’s founder<br />
and aviation enthusiast Özdemir Bayraktar,<br />
who, seeking to contribute to the Turkish<br />
industry, raised his son, Selçuk, to lead<br />
Baykar’s technology research.<br />
Selçuk Bayraktar graduated from Istanbul<br />
Technical University and was educated in<br />
the field of UAV technologies in the United<br />
States, the story said, adding that he<br />
completed his Ph.D. at the Massachusetts<br />
Institute of Technology in 2007.<br />
Highlighting his accomplishment of<br />
assembling a youthful team of thousands<br />
of engineers and experts spanning<br />
13 distinct fields at Baykar, the story<br />
emphasized that the armed UAVs<br />
developed by Baykar have significantly<br />
bolstered Türkiye’s counterterrorism<br />
endeavors.<br />
Pointing to the performance of the<br />
Bayraktar TB-2 during recent conflicts<br />
as a UAV used for both reconnaissance<br />
and attack, the report highlighted that<br />
the drone proved to be not only effective<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 82
against tanks but also posed a significant<br />
challenge to conventional air systems.<br />
Baykar later upgraded the TB-2 and<br />
developed the Akinci unmanned combat<br />
aerial vehicle (UCAV), rooted in the<br />
principles of simplicity, user-friendliness<br />
and robustness, spanning from design<br />
and production to flight control. This<br />
endeavor has led to the emergence of<br />
one of the premier heavy UAVs on the<br />
market, boasting a wingspan of up to 20<br />
meters (over 65 feet) and a takeoff weight<br />
exceeding 5 tons, the article highlighted.<br />
Referencing Türkiye’s recently launched<br />
warship, the TCG Anadolu, the article noted<br />
that Baykar is also conducting tests of its<br />
new unmanned fighter jet, Kızılelma, which<br />
holds the distinction of being the only such<br />
aircraft capable of carrier-based landings<br />
on a warship.<br />
The article also underscored the significant<br />
role played by Baykar’s UAVs in the<br />
aftermath of the earthquakes that struck<br />
Türkiye in February <strong>2023</strong>.<br />
Operating for over 1,500 hours over the<br />
disaster zone, the UAVs diligently relayed<br />
up-to-date data to rescue teams, aiding<br />
in damage assessment and facilitating<br />
the coordination of search and rescue<br />
operations, the report further stated.<br />
Pointing out that Baykar’s UAVs, which<br />
have shown superior performance on and<br />
off the battlefield, have experienced a<br />
sales boom in recent years, the article said<br />
the drones have been sold to nearly 20<br />
countries.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 84
World Bank grants $1 bln for<br />
Türkiye’s post-quake recovery<br />
The World Bank has allocated a substantial<br />
sum of $1 billion to aid the recovery<br />
efforts in earthquake-affected provinces in<br />
Türkiye’s south, Environment, Urbanization<br />
and Climate Change Minister Mehmet<br />
Özhaseki has announced.<br />
Özhaseki noted that this loan would play<br />
a pivotal role in advancing reconstruction<br />
initiatives in the earthquake-stricken<br />
region. A substantial portion of the loan<br />
package amounting to $684.8 million has<br />
been allocated to the ministry. Özhaseki<br />
outlined the distribution of these funds,<br />
stating that “$296.5 million [of this]<br />
will be directed towards the ministry’s<br />
housing projects in rural areas within the<br />
earthquake zone, while $388.3 million<br />
will be channeled into [ministry-owned]<br />
İlbank’s infrastructure projects in the<br />
earthquake-affected area.”<br />
Furthermore, the minister detailed<br />
how the loan earmarked for rural areas<br />
will be utilized to restore essential<br />
infrastructure and social facilities in the<br />
villages. This includes the renewal of<br />
water and rainwater networks, solid waste<br />
management facilities, municipal fire<br />
stations, as well as damaged emergency<br />
response and municipal equipment.<br />
Additionally, fire and rescue vehicles<br />
and solid waste collection vehicles in the<br />
earthquake region will also be upgraded<br />
and renewed.<br />
The announcement followed a prior<br />
World Bank project aimed at preventing<br />
the closure of viable micro, small and<br />
medium enterprises (MSMEs) impacted<br />
by the economic shocks resulting from the<br />
earthquakes.<br />
This project, with a budget of $450<br />
million, seeks to ensure the continuity and<br />
sustainable growth of these enterprises in<br />
the 11 provinces affected by the quakes.<br />
Under the guarantee of the Treasury and<br />
Finance Ministry, the Small and Medium<br />
Enterprises Development Organization of<br />
Türkiye (KOSGEB) implements this project<br />
to alleviate liquidity pressures on MSMEs,<br />
enabling them to resume their operations<br />
and gradually restore employment levels to<br />
those seen before the earthquakes.<br />
The project offers reimbursable financing<br />
to eligible MSMEs to cover their operating<br />
expenses, with 10 percent of the total<br />
funds earmarked to support womenowned<br />
or led MSMEs, emphasizing<br />
inclusivity in the recovery process.<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2023</strong> 86