HAZAR WORLD - SAYI: 36 - KASIM 2015

VOLKSWAGEN CO 2
EMİSYON SKANDALI / VOLKSWAGEN CO 2
EMISSION SCANDAL
TDI Penetrasyonu TDI Penetration
KRİZDEN SONRA DİZEL ARAÇ
SATIŞINA İLİŞKİN TAHMİNLER
DIESEL CARS SALE
SCENARIOS
AFTER THE CRISIS
VOLKSWAGEN GRUBU ABD SATIŞLARINDA DİZELİN PAYI
VOLKSWAGEN GROUP US SALES - DIESEL SHARE
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
İyimser
Optimistic
Baz
Baseline
AVRUPA: DİZEL - EN KÖTÜ SENARYO
EUROPE: DIESEL - WORST CASE SCENARIO
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
En Kötü Dizel Senaryosu - Batı Avrupa’daki Araçlar
Worst Case Diesel Forecast – W. Europe Cars
Kötümser
Pessimistic
Yeni En Kötü Senaryo
New Worst Scenario
6 milyon dizel
araç daha ‘kayıp’
a further 6mn ‘lost’
diesel cars
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
• Kriz Öncesi En Kötü Senaryo
• Dizel araç imajı zedelendi
• Bazı alıcılar dizel araç almaktan vazgeçti
Pre Crisis Worst Scenario
• Diesel image slightly damaged
• Some buyers avoid diesel
Kriz Öncesi En Kötü Senaryo
Pre Crisis Worst Scenario
Yeni En Kötü Senaryo
• Şirkete yönelik yaptırım kararları alındı
• Dizel imajı ciddi oranda zedelendi
• Birçok alıcı dizel araç almaktan vazgeçti
New Worst Scenario
• Regulators impose sanctions
• Diesel image very damaged
• Many buyers avoid diesel
Kaynak: LMC Automotive European LV Diesel Forecast Diesel Share Includes Diesel Hybrid
Source: LMC Automotive European LV Diesel Forecast Diesel Share Includes Diesel Hybrid
How do you think the effect of this
scandal would be for the future of the
diesel engines?
Definitely there will be a short-term
negative impact in the US, and probably
a long-term one as well. We particularly
expect to see a long-term negative impact
on the diesel share of passenger cars although
the diesel light truck sector will be
more robust. So the diesel LV mix in the
US will shift more to the light truck (SUV,
Van and pickup) sector. However, planned
investment in the diesel light truck sector
could also be at risk. Chrysler has had
good success with diesel in the light duty
pickup sector and GM/Ford was planning
to enter this market in a bigger way. Those
plans could change, but probably will not.
Passenger car diesel sales in China are
very small so we don’t see a big risk there.
Korea could be affected if Volkswagen
cheated on tests there. The only other
large diesel passenger car market outside
of Europe is India but emissions standards
there are behind Europe and the
US and we don’t expect the image of diesel
to suffer there. Diesel share in India is
influenced by product offerings and by
fuel price more than by environmental
concerns, despite intentions to improve
air quality.
What is the actual proportion for the
diesel engines and what are your predictions
for the future?
See our latest diesel share data for Western
Europe markets (we don’t have full
September data yet) and scenarios for
the outlook. Data for the countries that
we have so far indicate that there may
have been a fall in diesel share in the UK
in September but other Western Europe
markets for which we have data seem
relatively unaffected. Of course, the diesel
scandal story came near month-end so it
is hard to draw conclusions from September
numbers.
Regarding the outlook, I don’t believe the
worst case scenario is likely. There will
be some backlash against diesel, but as
I mention below, it is a vital tool for the
industry to meet fuel efficiency targets
and the investment in diesel engine production
is €multi-billion including much
recent investment in clean diesel engine
capacity. More than 10mn diesel engines
are produced in Europe annually - this
will not change quickly.
22 KASIM 2015 SAYI 36 - NOVEMBER 2015 ISSUE 36