Hazar Raporu - Issue 02 - Winter 2012

emain among the chief concerns among
Georgian voters”. 9 However, these were
not only reasons for the UNM defeat. Poor
human rights conditions and a desire for
justice were decisive factors; over 250,000
people were left jobless as a result of
Saakashvili’s reforms, including the old
non-English-speaking university professors
and thousands of corrupt policeman and
politicians. Moreover, as a result of the
”zero tolerance” policy on crime, which
brought the conviction rate in Georgian
courts to 98%, there are now close to
25,000 prisoners in Georgia, more per
capita than in any other country in Europe
and four times more than when Saakashvili
became President in 2004. 10
While the election was a remarkable upset
for Saakashvili’s team, as a genuinely
competitive election it represents an
important milestone on Georgia’s
democratic development path. The next
few months will reveal what type of
cooperation will be drawn up between
President Saakashvili, who under the
constitution must remain in his position
until the presidential elections in October
2013, and the newly-elected Prime
Minister Ivanishvili, who is widely believed
to be seeking rapprochement with Russia.
Any tensions in the working relationship
between the two could increase policy
uncertainty. Further complicating
9 Niklas Nilsson and Svante E. Cornell. Prospects and Pitfalls
after Georgia’s elections. CACI Analyst. October 4, 2012. Available
at: http://cacianalyst.org/q=node%2F5849
10 See: Prison Population Rates per 100,000 of the national
population where Georgia stands on 6 th position Available at:
http://www.prisonstudies.org/info/worldbrief/wpb_stats.
phparea=all&category=wb_poprate
matters, over the following 12 months,
Georgia’s political system will move from
presidential to parliamentary, thereby
stripping the presidential office of most
of its powers, and transferring them to the
prime minister 11 . Parliament is thus slated
to play a more vigorous role than it has in
the past. So far, it seems that the prospects
for stabilization of political life in Georgia
are limited, as both sides show reluctance
to cooperate with each other. Given that
the results of this election may significantly
shape the trajectory of Georgia’s future
development, Georgian political elites may
need to overcome their zero-sum approach
to politics and learn to govern through
consensus. This delicate coalition-style
governance is in its infancy; it also remains
to be seen whether the recent political
shuffle will propel Georgia toward the
Western-style liberal democracy or into
violent political turmoil.
Georgia’s Foreign policy: possible
modifications after the elections
Among the many questions as to what
comes next, the country’s geopolitical
direction under Bidzina Ivanishvili’s
Georgian Dream coalition is the subject
of extensive enquiry and speculation. As
in many other cases, new governments
in power follow new policies as well as
making incremental changes. However,
they seldom alter the fundamentals
11 For more detailed account see: George Welton. The Power
of the Prime Minister. Who Gets to Choose the Next Government
When How Available at: http://www.geowel.org/
index.phparticle_id=80&clang=0
CASPIAN REPORT
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