Hazar Raporu - Issue 02 - Winter 2012
Strategic Assessment of Euro-Asian Trade and Transportation Azerbaijan as a Regional Hub in Central Eurasia * Executive Summary December 2012 Taleh Ziyadov * The special report is prepared in association with the Caspian Forum 2012 (Istanbul, 5-6 December 2012) organized in partnership by the Caspian Strategy Institute (CSI), the Brookings Institute, the University of California, Berkeley and the University of Cambridge (UK). It is a succinct version of the recently published book by Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy (ADA) in Baku titled: “Azerbaijan as a Regional Hub in Central Eurasia” (Baku: ADA, 2012). The Need for a Common Vision for the Future In 1965, the late Sheikh Rashid bin Said Al-Maktum, the visionary ruler of Dubai, asked his British advisers to draw up a plan for the construction of a port. It took a British engineering firm two years to complete a comprehensive master planning study for the proposed port site, adjacent to the centuries-old Al Shindagah neighborhood in downtown Dubai. Based on the market assessment and future traffic forecasts, the advisers concluded that the new port would need only four berths. Having carefully considered the proposal, Sheikh Rashid demanded that the plan be altered to include sixteen berths instead of four. The British advisers reluctantly complied. The port was finally opened in 1971, and all sixteen berths were oversubscribed by the end of the first year of operation. Further expansions followed, and more berths were built in subsequent years. 1 Sheikh Rashid was convinced that Dubai was bound to become the most important transport hub in the Middle East, and even beyond. Today, the Rashid Port, the Jabal Ali Port and Free Zone, Dubai International Airport, and many other state-of-the-art projects in the Dubai emirate stand as testaments to Sheikh Rashid’s foresight and vision. 1 Christopher M. Davidson, Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success (New York: Columbia University Press, 2008), pp. 92–93. 102 104
In a similar fashion, it was the vision of Lee Kuan Yew, one of the longestserving prime ministers of the twentieth century, that transformed the tiny city-state of Singapore from a relatively underdeveloped former colonial settlement to a modern and competitive economy and the major distribution hub in Southeast Asia. As early as 1973, just eight years after independence, Singapore was being hailed as “the world’s fourth busiest port,” serving more than 200 shipping carriers and some fifty maritime states. 2 By becoming the region’s oil refining and distribution center, Singapore managed to turn itself into an ‘oil-rich’ state even though it was virtually devoid of any oil of its own. Capitalizing on its strategic location at the crossroads of the major maritime routes between Europe and Asia, Lee Kuan Yew seized every opportunity that came his way. He established an attractive business environment for foreign direct investment (FDI) and pursued an aggressive diversification policy. Today, the country enjoys a strong economy with a high level of FDI, and booming trade, manufacturing, and finance sectors. In 2009, Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exceeded $36,000, up from a mere $395 in 1960. 3 Even though both Dubai and Singapore have undoubtedly benefited from their coastal locations and the entrepôt trade generated by maritime traffic, the vision 2 T. J. S. George, Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore (London: Andre Deutsch, 1973), p. 95. 3 World Bank, World Development Indicators. Retrieved from http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators. of their respective leaders was essential to these cities’ resounding economic success, for without it they would be utterly different places today. The paths taken by Sheikh Rashid in Dubai and Prime Minister Lee in Singapore offer a lesson for every national leader and every country aspiring to make an enduring mark in the world: it is necessary to possess a vision for the future. Unlike the world’s great seaports, the prominent commercial cities of the Caspian Basin region have historically been land-based hubs. It took months and even years for the ancient Silk Road traders to travel between Europe and Asia, and the Caspian region’s hub cities served as critical regional logistics and distribution centers. Each of them had a number of caravanserais, where goods and ideas exchanged hands, and people and cultures met and mixed. These trading centers were connected with other regional hubs and megacities through a vast network of corridors across Eurasia and the Middle East. The Silk Road corridors were for centuries the source of prosperity for many nations in Central Eurasia. 4 Central Eurasia is once again poised to regain its former prominence as a landbased hub between Europe and Asia. By 2030, a tourist will be able to jump on a high-speed train in Istanbul and arrive in Baku the same day; he will even have time 4 Although the term “Central Eurasia” has a number of different definitions, in this report it refers to eight Caspian region countries, namely the three South Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia and the five Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. CASPIAN REPORT 105 103
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In a similar fashion, it was the vision<br />
of Lee Kuan Yew, one of the longestserving<br />
prime ministers of the twentieth<br />
century, that transformed the tiny<br />
city-state of Singapore from a relatively<br />
underdeveloped former colonial<br />
settlement to a modern and competitive<br />
economy and the major distribution hub<br />
in Southeast Asia. As early as 1973, just<br />
eight years after independence, Singapore<br />
was being hailed as “the world’s fourth<br />
busiest port,” serving more than 200<br />
shipping carriers and some fifty maritime<br />
states. 2 By becoming the region’s oil<br />
refining and distribution center, Singapore<br />
managed to turn itself into an ‘oil-rich’ state<br />
even though it was virtually devoid of any<br />
oil of its own. Capitalizing on its strategic<br />
location at the crossroads of the major<br />
maritime routes between Europe and Asia,<br />
Lee Kuan Yew seized every opportunity<br />
that came his way. He established an<br />
attractive business environment for foreign<br />
direct investment (FDI) and pursued an<br />
aggressive diversification policy. Today,<br />
the country enjoys a strong economy with<br />
a high level of FDI, and booming trade,<br />
manufacturing, and finance sectors. In<br />
2009, Singapore’s gross domestic product<br />
(GDP) per capita exceeded $36,000, up<br />
from a mere $395 in 1960. 3<br />
Even though both Dubai and Singapore<br />
have undoubtedly benefited from their<br />
coastal locations and the entrepôt trade<br />
generated by maritime traffic, the vision<br />
2 T. J. S. George, Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore (London: Andre<br />
Deutsch, 1973), p. 95.<br />
3 World Bank, World Development Indicators. Retrieved<br />
from http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.<br />
of their respective leaders was essential to<br />
these cities’ resounding economic success,<br />
for without it they would be utterly<br />
different places today. The paths taken<br />
by Sheikh Rashid in Dubai and Prime<br />
Minister Lee in Singapore offer a lesson<br />
for every national leader and every country<br />
aspiring to make an enduring mark in the<br />
world: it is necessary to possess a vision for<br />
the future.<br />
Unlike the world’s great seaports, the<br />
prominent commercial cities of the<br />
Caspian Basin region have historically<br />
been land-based hubs. It took months and<br />
even years for the ancient Silk Road traders<br />
to travel between Europe and Asia, and<br />
the Caspian region’s hub cities served as<br />
critical regional logistics and distribution<br />
centers. Each of them had a number of<br />
caravanserais, where goods and ideas<br />
exchanged hands, and people and cultures<br />
met and mixed. These trading centers<br />
were connected with other regional hubs<br />
and megacities through a vast network of<br />
corridors across Eurasia and the Middle<br />
East. The Silk Road corridors were for<br />
centuries the source of prosperity for many<br />
nations in Central Eurasia. 4<br />
Central Eurasia is once again poised to<br />
regain its former prominence as a landbased<br />
hub between Europe and Asia. By<br />
2030, a tourist will be able to jump on a<br />
high-speed train in Istanbul and arrive in<br />
Baku the same day; he will even have time<br />
4 Although the term “Central Eurasia” has a number of different<br />
definitions, in this report it refers to eight Caspian region<br />
countries, namely the three South Caucasus states of Armenia,<br />
Azerbaijan, and Georgia and the five Central Asian states of Kazakhstan,<br />
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.<br />
CASPIAN REPORT<br />
105 103