Är trängselskatt ett hot mot detaljhandeln

The descriptive analysis showed that the so called substitution- and income effects were
limited. There was no change in turnover of retail sales within the congestion charge zone
compared to the time before and after the Stockholm trial. Also, department stores and
shopping centres within the congestion charge zone showed no significant difference in
growth rate compared to the growth of retail trade outside the congestion charge zone or
average national figures. The proved differences were mainly effects of other factors, such as
reconstruction and renovation in the shopping centers under investigation and increased
competition from retail trade in the surrounding municipalities, seasonal variations and effects
of the macro economic situation. The so called free-standing shops deviated slightly from this
pattern, but since this lasted before and after the Stockholm trial, the development was
interpreted as a result of the structural change of retail trade in the Stockholm area.
The conclusion that the Stockholm trial had limited effects on the retail trade within the
congestion charge zone is confirmed by the econometric analysis which was carried out on
the material. Consideration was taken to shopping center- and time specific effects which
were presumed to affect everyone in the survey, reconstruction and renovation during certain
times, inflation as well as the Stockholm trial. The collected material was divided into one
intervention group consisting of department stores, shopping centers and free-standing shops
within the congestion charge zone, and one control group consisting of shopping centres
outside the congestion charge zone and the growth of retail trade in the country.
The econometric analysis showed that the variable for structural change had a strong negative
effect on the development of retail sales in department stores and shopping centers within the
congestion charge zone during renovation periods. The development of retail sales was on
average 9 percent lower within the charge zone compared to the growth outside the zone. The
effects on durables of the congestion charge programme was, with exception to Åhlens
Skanstull and Sickla köpkvarter, not statistically significant. Neither were the effects of the
Stockholm trial on groceries within the charge zone statistically significant. Instead, the
holiday month July had a strong negative effect on the development of groceries within the
congestion charge zone.
The consumer surveys that were carried out before, during and after the congestion charge
programme showed differences in purchasing and travelling habits depending on where the
consumers lived and/or worked/studied. The changes over time and in connection with the
44