Elemente de psihologie investitionala (I) - Kmarket.ro
Elemente de psihologie investitionala (I) - Kmarket.ro
Elemente de psihologie investitionala (I) - Kmarket.ro
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Evolutia Bursei <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> Valori · Autor: Echipa Intercapital Invest<br />
subscriere la preturi mai mari sau egale cu pretul final stabilit <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng><br />
emitent este mai mare <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng>cat numarul total <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> actiuni pus in vanzare)<br />
alocarea se va face dupa metoda “p<strong>ro</strong>-rata”.<br />
Teraplast este a patra companie ce initiaza anul acesta o oferta<br />
publica initiala, dupa Casa <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> Bucovina—Club <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> Munte, STK<br />
Emergent si Contor G<strong>ro</strong>up. In functie <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> pretul final, dar si <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng>cizia<br />
<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> majorare a numarului total <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> actiuni puse in vanzare, oferta<br />
Teraplast poate fi cea mai mare ca valoare comparativ cu cele ce au<br />
avut loc pana acum in 2008.<br />
Daca ne uitam strict la nivelul <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> subscriere inregistrat in cazul<br />
celorlalte IPO, in aceasta perioada a anului se observa un interes mai<br />
scazut al investitorilor pentru oferte publice initiale. Astfel, IPO Casa<br />
<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> Bucovina a fost subscrisa in p<strong>ro</strong>portie <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> 148,8%, STK Emergent<br />
in p<strong>ro</strong>portie <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> 42,79%, iar Contor G<strong>ro</strong>up <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> 100,97%, in conditiile in<br />
care in anii trecuti Transgaz s-a bucurat <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> un grad <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> subscriere <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng><br />
2.791,88%, Alumil ROM Industry <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> 1.647,45% iar Transelectrica <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng><br />
646,31%.<br />
O astfel <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> coinci<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng>nta in anul 2008 ar putea fi pusa pe o cauza<br />
generala, si anume pe lipsa <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> interes a investitorilor in ceea ce<br />
priveste cumpararea <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> actiuni intr-o perioada <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> instabilitate la<br />
bursa. Totusi, ar trebui sa privim lucrurile si din punct <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> ve<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng>re<br />
fundamental. Toate cele trei oferte au privit societati <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> dimensiuni<br />
mult mai mici, cu un obiect <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> activitate mai putin atractiv si care au<br />
intrat in oferta cu multipli mai ridicati (P/E, P/B sau P/S) fata <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng><br />
media calculata pentru companii similare listate atat in Romania, cat<br />
si in alte tari. Astfel, consi<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng>ram ca succesul unei oferte, si anume<br />
gradul <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> subscriere al acesteia, <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng>pin<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> atat <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> context, cat mai ales<br />
<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> calitatea emitentului si <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> conditiile <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> pret <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> subscriere in acea<br />
oferta.<br />
Indicatorii <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> evaluare din oferta sunt mai ridicati, insa pretul a fost<br />
p<strong>ro</strong>babil stabilit prin raportare la ultimele oferte ce au avut loc, dar<br />
mai ales tinand cont <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> domeniul <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> activitate al companiei,<br />
emitentul prezentand perspective bune din acest punct <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> ve<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng>re.<br />
Chiar daca nu ne asteptam la un grad <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> subscriere comparabil cu<br />
IPO Alumil sau Transgaz, consi<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng>ram ca oferta se va inchi<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> cu<br />
succes, mai ales daca avem in ve<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng>re numarul mic <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> oferte ce au<br />
avut loc pana acum, acest lucru crescand apetitul investitorilor pentru<br />
noi societati listate. Totusi, avand in ve<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng>re intervalul <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> pret p<strong>ro</strong>pus<br />
nu consi<st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng>ram ca IPO Teraplast prezinta perspective <st<strong>ro</strong>ng>de</st<strong>ro</strong>ng> randament<br />
foarte mari imediat listarii pentru cei ce doresc sa subscrie in oferta.<br />
Investitia in IPO Teraplast se adreseaza investitorilor cu un orizont<br />
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