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2023 Q3 In Review - Integrity Wealth Advisors, Ventura & Ojai, California

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iwaplan.com<br />

<strong>Q3</strong> <strong>2023</strong><br />

IN REVIEW


TOTAL RETURN <strong>2023</strong> <strong>Q3</strong> + NEWSWORTHY EVENTS<br />

July 5 – The Fed’s<br />

June meeting minutes<br />

indicate more rate hikes<br />

are likely on the way<br />

July 26 – The Federal Reserve<br />

raised the federal funds rate to<br />

5.50%, the highest level in 22 years<br />

August 8 – On Maui, a series of<br />

wildfires burned 17,000 acres of<br />

land, leaving at least 98 people<br />

dead and 31 others missing<br />

September 9 – a 6.9 magnitude<br />

earthquake strikes Marrakesh,<br />

killing at least 2,960 people<br />

July 12 – The Consumer<br />

Price <strong>In</strong>dex (CPI) report<br />

showed that headline<br />

inflation was up 3.1% for<br />

the last year, the lowest<br />

reading since August 2021<br />

August 1 – U.S. Treasury<br />

Bonds were downgraded<br />

from AAA to AA+ by<br />

ratings agency Fitch<br />

August 15 – The stock market<br />

fell following better than<br />

expected economic reports<br />

on consumer spending,<br />

suggesting sticker inflation<br />

and a more aggressive Fed<br />

September 15 – The<br />

United Auto Workers<br />

begin a strike against<br />

the three largest<br />

American automakers<br />

September 20 – The<br />

Federal Reserve<br />

decided to hold interest<br />

rates at 5.50% but<br />

notes than another 25<br />

basis point raise was<br />

not off the table for the<br />

remainder of <strong>2023</strong><br />

4%<br />

S&P 500 TOTAL RETURN<br />

MSCI ACWI EX USA TOTAL RETURN<br />

BARCLAYS US AGGREGATE TOTAL RETURN<br />

3%<br />

2%<br />

1%<br />

0%<br />

-1%<br />

-2%<br />

-3.27%<br />

-3%<br />

-3.23%<br />

-4%<br />

-3.68%<br />

July<br />

August<br />

September<br />

As of close 9/29/<strong>2023</strong><br />

12%<br />

S&P 500 TOTAL RETURN<br />

MSCI ACWI EX USA TOTAL RETURN<br />

BARCLAYS US AGGREGATE TOTAL RETURN<br />

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/<strong>2023</strong><br />

11%<br />

10.42%


A SURPRISINGLY RESILIENT ECONOMY DESPITE<br />

A HAWKISH FED<br />

<strong>2023</strong><br />

<strong>Q3</strong><br />

IN REVIEW<br />

The financial markets faced significant challenges in the third quarter.<br />

Equities struggled as a bearish sentiment took hold in recent months. The<br />

initial momentum, driven by a disinflation narrative from October 2022 to July<br />

<strong>2023</strong>, was overshadowed by less supportive storylines, leaving equities in a<br />

precarious position amidst the resilient economy.<br />

Despite efforts, inflation improvement remains elusive due to persistent wage<br />

stagnation. While U.S. consumers didn't cause the pandemic-related price<br />

surge, they are now demanding higher wages. This robust labor force is a<br />

reason why the Federal Reserve is cautious in easing its policies, hinting at<br />

a prolonged period of restrictive measures, which is impacting both equities<br />

and bonds.<br />

This tightening of financial conditions is happening in an economy that,<br />

at the moment, seems capable of absorbing it. Consumers are financially<br />

stable, employment markets are robust, corporate profits are rising, and fiscal<br />

policies are surprisingly pro-cyclical for this stage of expansion. Consequently,<br />

the rise in yields seems justified given the resilient economy and the hawkish<br />

stance of the Fed. While the threat of a recession looms in 2024, for now, the<br />

market's fate hangs on oil prices and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield.<br />

Traditionally, interest rates would be at new lows during this expansion<br />

phase, stimulating the economy through refinancing and increased housing<br />

demand. However, investors are now grappling with a gradual reduction in<br />

liquidity, reflected in the narrowing gains across financial assets. Despite<br />

healthy nominal economic growth, the ongoing contraction of money and<br />

credit implies a limited shelf life for this prosperity. <strong>In</strong>vestors remain skeptical<br />

about the soft-landing theory unless there's a significant change in the current<br />

scenario. The longer the economy stays resilient, the higher the chances of a<br />

harsher economic downturn.<br />

Real interest rates are higher, emphasizing the time value of money and<br />

marking a departure from the post-2008 era of easy money. Consequently,<br />

considering valuations is crucial in investment decisions. The era of pursuing<br />

growth at any cost is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.<br />

ECONOMIC CHARTS & NOTES<br />

CONSUMER SENTIMENT Consumer sentiment improved in <strong>Q3</strong>, reaching its<br />

highest level in nearly two years, although autoworker strikes and the government<br />

shutdown added uncertainty. Retail sales picked up as American shoppers stayed<br />

resilient.<br />

US Retail Sales<br />

Consumer Sentiment<br />

EMPLOYMENT The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.8% (its highest level since<br />

February 2022), a sign that the jobs market may be cooling. Job gains were better<br />

than expected in August, led by healthcare, but June/July figures were revised lower.<br />

Unemployment Rate<br />

NonFarm Payroll<br />

34%<br />

100<br />

16%<br />

2200<br />

US Retail Sales % Chg<br />

28%<br />

22%<br />

16%<br />

10%<br />

4%<br />

-2%<br />

-8%<br />

90<br />

80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

Consumer Sentiment<br />

Unemployment Rate %<br />

14%<br />

12%<br />

10%<br />

8%<br />

6%<br />

4%<br />

-825<br />

-3850<br />

-6875<br />

-9900<br />

-12925<br />

-15950<br />

-18975<br />

NonFarm Payroll<br />

-14%<br />

Jan '19<br />

Jul '19<br />

Jan '20<br />

Jul '20<br />

Jan '21<br />

Jul '21<br />

Jan '22<br />

Jul '22<br />

Jan '23<br />

50<br />

Jul '23<br />

2%<br />

Jan ' 19<br />

Jul '19<br />

Jan '20<br />

Jul '20<br />

Jan '21<br />

Jul '21<br />

Jan '22<br />

Jul '22<br />

Jan '23<br />

Jul ' 23<br />

-22000<br />

Source: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Retail Sales - U.S. Census Bureau.<br />

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


ECONOMIC CHARTS & NOTES<br />

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX The overall CPI had it biggest monthly gain<br />

of <strong>2023</strong> due to a surge in gasoline prices. Core inflation, excluding food and<br />

energy, was hotter than expected in August.<br />

CONSUMER SPENDING Consumer purchasing power slipped in <strong>Q3</strong> as wage<br />

growth failed to keep up with inflation. Household spending cooled in August but<br />

remains above 2022 levels.<br />

Y/Y % Chg<br />

8%<br />

7%<br />

6%<br />

5%<br />

4%<br />

3%<br />

2%<br />

1%<br />

0%<br />

CPI Less Food<br />

2018 2019 2020 2021<br />

CPI All<br />

2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />

% Chg Year-over-year<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

-5<br />

-10<br />

-15<br />

-20<br />

-25<br />

Jan '19<br />

Jul '19<br />

Consumption<br />

Jan '20 Jul ' 20 Jan '21<br />

Jul '21<br />

Jan '22<br />

Disposable <strong>In</strong>come<br />

Jul '22 Jan '23 Jul '23<br />

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />

JOB OPENINGS & HIRES Retail hires and job openings were relatively flat<br />

for the period. Some retailers, like Amazon, are ramping holiday season hiring,<br />

while Target and others are being more cautious.<br />

GDP The Fed's GDPNow model estimates the economy grew 4.9% in the third<br />

quarter, amid resilient consumer spending and healthy net export activity.<br />

Retail Openings<br />

Retail Hires<br />

GDP<br />

Amount in Thousands<br />

1500<br />

1200<br />

900<br />

600<br />

300<br />

0<br />

Jan '18<br />

Jul '18<br />

Jan '19<br />

Jul '19<br />

Jan '20<br />

Jul '20<br />

Jan '21<br />

Jul '21<br />

Jan '22<br />

Jul '22<br />

Jan '23<br />

Jul '23<br />

% Growth<br />

35%<br />

30%<br />

25%<br />

20%<br />

15%<br />

10%<br />

5%<br />

0%<br />

-5%<br />

-10%<br />

-15%<br />

-20%<br />

-25%<br />

-30%<br />

Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q1 Q4 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2<br />

2018<br />

2019 2020 2021 2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis


U.S. ECONOMY HIT BY ROLLING RECESSION<br />

<strong>2023</strong><br />

<strong>Q3</strong><br />

IN REVIEW<br />

What happened to the widely predicted recession that was supposed to wreak havoc on the U.S. economy this year? It happened. Just not all at once.<br />

Different sectors of the economy have experienced downturns at different times. Thanks to this rare case of a “rolling” recession, the U.S. may not experience a<br />

traditional recession at all this year, or next, even with the dual pressures of elevated inflation and high interest rates.<br />

“Mini” recessions have rolled across different industries and sectors<br />

Travel<br />

Travelers through TSA checkpoints (millions)<br />

Oil<br />

WTI crude oil spot price (USD per barrel)<br />

3<br />

2<br />

1<br />

0<br />

2019 2020 2021 2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />

Housing<br />

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price <strong>In</strong>dex<br />

(month-over-month % change)<br />

3<br />

2<br />

1<br />

0<br />

–1<br />

–2<br />

2019 2020 2021 2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />

120<br />

80<br />

40<br />

0<br />

2019 2020 2021 2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />

Semiconductors<br />

Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor <strong>In</strong>dex cumulative return (%)<br />

250<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

50<br />

0<br />

2019 2020 2021 2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />

Sources: Travel: Transportation Security Agency (TSA), U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Data is a 30-day moving average. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Oil: Refinitiv Datastream. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Housing: Refinitiv Datastream,<br />

Standard & Poor’s. Latest available monthly data is June <strong>2023</strong>, as of September 5, <strong>2023</strong>. Semiconductors: Philadelphia Stock Exchange, Refinitiv Datastream. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Data represents cumulative price return since January 1,<br />

2019. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.<br />

Sources: © <strong>2023</strong> Capital Travel: Group. Transportation All rights reserved. Security Agency (TSA), U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Data is a 30-day moving average. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Oil: Refinitiv Datastream. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Housing:<br />

Refinitiv Datastream, Standard & Poor’s. Latest available monthly data is June <strong>2023</strong>, as of September 5, <strong>2023</strong>. Semiconductors: Philadelphia Stock Exchange, Refinitiv Datastream. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Data<br />

represents cumulative price return since January 1, 2019. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.<br />

6


AS RATE HIKES NEAR END, HISTORIC INVESTOR<br />

OPPORTUNITY MAY BEGIN<br />

To say this has been an interesting year in financial markets is an<br />

understatement. Equities have been stronger than most expected, and the<br />

10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up 71 basis points as of September 30. So where<br />

are we now as we head into the homestretch of <strong>2023</strong>? We believe we’re on the<br />

cusp of a major transition, one where long-term investors can find attractive<br />

income opportunities as central banks pivot from restrictive monetary policy<br />

to something that looks much more benign.<br />

Last year was shocking to many in the investment community; it marked the<br />

first time in at least 45 years that both stocks and bonds posted negative<br />

returns in a calendar year. Battling high inflation, the Federal Reserve raised<br />

interest rates aggressively. Those hikes hurt absolute results across the<br />

board. The usual role of high-quality bonds to provide diversification from<br />

stock market volatility — something investors rely on — broke down.<br />

Turbulent markets in 2022, plus the prospect of relatively high yields in money<br />

markets, led investors to flock to cash-like alternatives. Money market funds<br />

were at an all-time high of $5.6 trillion as of September 6, according to the<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Company <strong>In</strong>stitute. Cash investments still look compelling to<br />

many investors today, but the Fed appears to be nearing a turning point.<br />

History teaches us that this may be an opportune time to shift back to stocks<br />

and bonds.<br />

Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg <strong>In</strong>dex Services Ltd., Standard & Poor's. Each dot represents an annual stock and bond market return from 1977 through 2022. Stock returns represented by the S&P 500 <strong>In</strong>dex. Bond<br />

returns represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate <strong>In</strong>dex. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.


UNDERSTANDING THE RISE IN BOND YIELDS<br />

<strong>2023</strong><br />

<strong>Q3</strong><br />

IN REVIEW<br />

The incredible resilience of the U.S. economy,<br />

highlighted by September’s payroll numbers, has<br />

caused government bond yields to rise sharply.<br />

Steepening of the yield curve creates a compelling<br />

opportunity for investors in money markets to<br />

consider adding longer-duration assets, in our<br />

view. Starting yields are high relative to history<br />

and to other asset classes on a risk-adjusted<br />

basis. This can create a “yield cushion” amid a still<br />

highly uncertain outlook. <strong>In</strong> addition, bonds have<br />

the potential to earn capital gains and diversify<br />

portfolios. <strong>In</strong>deed, investors can now seek to<br />

construct resilient portfolios, pursuing robust yields<br />

and predictable flows, with a moderate amount of<br />

risk.<br />

The spike in rates is also working to tighten<br />

financial conditions by making new debt much more<br />

expensive. This should eventually raise the cost<br />

of existing debt as fixed terms run out on loans to<br />

businesses and households. Higher yields have<br />

already contributed to stagnating flows of new<br />

loans this year. We believe this may eventually slow<br />

economic activity and moderate inflation enough for<br />

central banks to ease.<br />

Paradoxically, yields have jumped despite developed<br />

market central banks having neared the end of their<br />

respective hiking cycles, and as headline inflation<br />

rates have moderated meaningfully. This has raised<br />

questions about the underlying drivers of the recent<br />

market repricing.<br />

Consider that U.S. Treasury yields have risen and<br />

the yield curve has steepened with real rates –<br />

indicated by yields on Treasury <strong>In</strong>flation-Protected<br />

Securities (TIPS) – leading nominal bond yields<br />

higher. By contrast, the spread between real and<br />

nominal rates, or the breakeven inflation spread,<br />

hasn’t changed much at all. This suggests that<br />

investors aren’t worried about inflation risks, but are<br />

nevertheless demanding a higher real term premium<br />

to hold longer-maturity government bonds.<br />

Why would investors all of a sudden demand more<br />

real term premium? At the heart of it, we think<br />

it relates to a combination of factors that have<br />

recently shifted private investors’ outlook about<br />

future government bond supply. Expectations of<br />

greater supply have meant a higher yield required by<br />

the marginal investor. These factors include:<br />

1. More resilient economies and lower recession<br />

risks. This suggests that central banks can<br />

continue for longer to reduce their holdings<br />

of government bonds. The process, known<br />

as quantitative tightening or “QT,” tends to<br />

boost the supply of bonds in the market and<br />

tighten financial conditions. Earlier in the year,<br />

the U.S. regional banking crisis led to a steep<br />

drop in policy rate expectations and lower<br />

term premiums embedded in longer-dated<br />

bonds. Markets were pricing in the prospect<br />

of recession and policy easing, including a<br />

cessation of QT.<br />

2. Resilience in developed economies outside<br />

the U.S. Importantly, this has reignited enough<br />

inflationary pressures in Japan for its central<br />

bank to ease away from its yield curve control<br />

policy. Over the past decade, the Bank of Japan<br />

(BOJ) has been an important source of demand<br />

for Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). This<br />

crowded out Japanese domestic investors from<br />

their local bond markets, increasing demand<br />

for global bonds. Now that the BOJ is easing<br />

away from these policies, there should be more<br />

JGBs for the private sector to buy to finance<br />

Japanese government deficits – thus reducing<br />

demand for Treasuries.<br />

3. The outlook for the U.S. deficit has also been<br />

ratcheted up. <strong>In</strong> particular, there have been<br />

growing concerns over the future cost of<br />

government tax credits and subsidies related<br />

to green energy investments. <strong>In</strong> May, the<br />

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) revised<br />

higher its 10-year outlook for costs stemming<br />

from last year’s <strong>In</strong>flation Reduction Act – the<br />

largest-ever investment into addressing climate<br />

change. Private forecasters have asserted that<br />

because these new government incentives<br />

are uncapped, even the CBO’s latest estimates<br />

may be grossly underappreciating longer-term<br />

costs. That could require increased issuance of<br />

Treasuries.<br />

These factors have raised fresh questions<br />

about U.S. debt sustainability. Government debt<br />

loads have gotten more expensive to service<br />

as interest costs rise amid moderating nominal<br />

growth. Concerns about debt-sustainability were<br />

exacerbated by Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S.’s<br />

sovereign credit rating to AA+ from AAA in August.<br />

However, the spread between Italian government<br />

bonds and matched-maturity German bonds has<br />

also widened in Europe as investors grapple with<br />

debt-sustainability questions there.<br />

INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS<br />

The normalization in the shape of the yield curve<br />

and repricing of real yields reflects investors’<br />

demand for higher yields in the face of greater<br />

supply. However, what’s good for investors is<br />

not necessarily sustainable for the economy<br />

over the medium term. Higher rates have further<br />

tightened financial conditions, which should weigh<br />

on investment, real GDP growth, and eventually<br />

inflation. <strong>In</strong> other words, higher yields that tighten<br />

financial conditions are just what the economy<br />

needs for yields to decline.<br />

Thus, high starting yields plus the potential for<br />

capital appreciation and portfolio diversification<br />

can create attractive opportunities in fixed income<br />

markets, in our view. <strong>In</strong>deed, investors can seek to<br />

construct resilient portfolios, with robust yields and<br />

predictable flows, with a moderate amount of risk.<br />

SOURCE: Pimco


INVESTMENT<br />

MANAGEMENT<br />

PHILOSOPHY<br />

The complex, ever-changing investment world of today<br />

requires an investment process that is overseen by a team<br />

of experienced investment professionals. Global capital<br />

markets present investors with a host of challenges due to<br />

the combination of an overwhelming amount of information<br />

to analyze and the endless supply of conflicting opinions and<br />

narratives surrounding financial markets. The time and expertise<br />

required to perform in-depth investment research and to make<br />

timely and informed portfolio management decisions requires<br />

both a clear investment process and an experienced investment<br />

team to implement the process.<br />

An old adage states that there is accomplishment through<br />

many advisors. We agree and embrace a variety of investment<br />

perspectives through our investment committee. Our investment<br />

philosophy is well grounded in global macro-economic analysis.<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment ideas are carefully vetted through a process which<br />

incorporates the diverse range of investment backgrounds<br />

within our firm. This process of multifaceted analysis ensures<br />

that only the strongest investment ideas survive. We are<br />

committed to striking the right balance between risk and<br />

return through managing global, multi-asset class investment<br />

portfolios.<br />

INDEPENDENCE &<br />

CLIENT FOCUS<br />

DIVERSIFICATION<br />

TOP-DOWN, THEMATIC<br />

APPROACH<br />

PERFORMANCE WITH<br />

LIQUIDITY<br />

VARIED INVESTMENT<br />

PERSPECTIVES<br />

OPTIMIZATION OF<br />

EXPENSES AND TAXES<br />

THE INVESTMENT PROCESS<br />

ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL<br />

ECONOMIC & INVESTMENT<br />

ENVIRONMENT<br />

ASSESS & ANALYZE<br />

THEMES<br />

RESEARCH INVESTMENT<br />

VEHICLES TO FIND<br />

EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION<br />

IDENTIFY<br />

OPPORTUNITIES<br />

STRATEGIC ASSET<br />

ALLOCATION -<br />

Geographies, Sectors,<br />

Capitalizations<br />

INVESTMENT SELECTION -<br />

Open/Closed End Funds, ETFs, Stocks & Bonds


INVESTMENT COMMITTEE<br />

<strong>2023</strong><br />

<strong>Q3</strong><br />

IN REVIEW<br />

The <strong>In</strong>vestment Committee meets formally each quarter,<br />

and more frequently if market conditions warrant, to discuss<br />

the state of the global economy and capital markets and<br />

to assess the current asset allocation and positioning of<br />

our portfolios. There’s an art to striking the right balance<br />

between risk and return; pursuing that symmetry is the core<br />

of our investment philosophy. We are fiduciaries and have<br />

our interests aligned with our advisory clients, as we invest<br />

alongside them.​ Contact us at investmentcommittee@<br />

iwaplan.com with any questions or concerns.<br />

STEPHEN WAGNER<br />

CEO, <strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor,<br />

CFP ® , CPFA<br />

MARTHA LAFF<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor,<br />

ChFC ® , CLU ® , CRPC ®<br />

CHRISTOPHER WAGNER<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor &<br />

Financial Planner, CPFA<br />

MARGARET MARAPAO<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor &<br />

Financial Planner, CFP ®<br />

LAINE MILLER<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor &<br />

Financial Planner, CFP ®<br />

JOE BARONI<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor &<br />

Financial Planner, CFP ®<br />

BOB CHEATHAM<br />

Financial Planner,<br />

CRPS®, MA<br />

DOUG ECKER<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor &<br />

Financial Planner, CRPS®<br />

ANDREW MURTHA<br />

Financial Analyst,<br />

MBA<br />

* Financial services experience. <strong>In</strong>vestment Advisory Services are offered through investment advisor representatives of <strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong>, a Federally Registered <strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor.<br />

Bob Cheatham, Doug Ecker, Laine Miller, Joe Baroni and Christopher Wagner are solely investment advisor representatives of <strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong>. LLC. and not affiliated with LPL Financial.<br />

THOUGHTFUL<br />

INDEPENDENT<br />

FIDUCIARIES<br />

<strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong> has<br />

been committed to helping<br />

individuals, families, and<br />

businesses grow, preserve, and<br />

distribute wealth since 1979<br />

VENTURA<br />

196 S Fir St, Ste 140<br />

<strong>Ventura</strong>, CA 93001<br />

(805) 339-0760<br />

ventura@iwaplan.com<br />

OJAI<br />

205 S Signal St,<br />

<strong>Ojai</strong>, CA 93023<br />

(805) 646-3729<br />

ojai@iwaplan.com


THE IMPACT OF<br />

SOUND FINANCIAL<br />

PLANNING<br />

PAY OFF STUDENT LOANS OR SAVE<br />

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Recent Vanguard research 1 shows that an experienced<br />

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It’s important to realize how valuable making sound financial<br />

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our worst enemy, especially when the markets are volatile,<br />

and guidance from a “behavioral coach” can save us from<br />

panic-selling and abandoning long-term financial plans.<br />

Numerous studies demonstrate that advisors can have a<br />

huge impact on investor finances, but it’s hard to say if these<br />

findings have been recognized and understood by everyday<br />

investors.<br />

DREAM.<br />

PLAN.<br />

ENJOY.<br />

After a three-year pause during the<br />

pandemic, student loan payments are back.<br />

This also marks the return of a perennial<br />

question for recent (and, in this case,<br />

not-so-recent) grads: Should I pay down<br />

my student loans before I start saving for<br />

retirement?<br />

It can be tempting to postpone saving for<br />

things like an emergency fund or goals<br />

like retirement, especially if you're young<br />

and aren't making a lot of money. However,<br />

thanks to the power of compounding,<br />

setting aside even small amounts<br />

when you’re young could help you build<br />

significant savings by the time you're<br />

retired.<br />

It's not impossible to tackle student debt<br />

while also saving for retirement. Consider<br />

prioritizing these steps:<br />

1. Make the minimum loan payments<br />

The cardinal rule for paying off student debt<br />

is: Don't miss payments. Make at least the<br />

minimum payment on every loan and ensure<br />

the amount fits your monthly budget. As<br />

you repay your loan, you're establishing<br />

credit history, and your student loan interest<br />

payments may be tax-deductible if your<br />

adjusted gross income is less than $85,000<br />

($175,000 for joint returns). So, there's an<br />

upside to starting payments and making<br />

them on time.<br />

2. Maximize 401(k) contributions to at least<br />

get the match<br />

Your next priority is to consider your<br />

qualified workplace retirement plan. You'll<br />

want to contribute as much as you can<br />

afford to your 401(k)—or 403(b) if you<br />

work for a nonprofit or 457(b) if you're<br />

a government employee—up to your<br />

employer's match. Not contributing enough<br />

to receive the match (often 5% or 6%)<br />

is turning down what's effectively "free<br />

money."<br />

3. Pay off high-interest-rate debt<br />

Debt with a high interest rate, such as that<br />

held on a credit card, can quickly pile up—<br />

especially if you carry over your balance<br />

from month to month. Start by cutting back<br />

your credit card use and put extra money<br />

toward your balance. With less debt, you'll<br />

be able to save more for retirement and<br />

other financial goals.<br />

4. Build an emergency fund<br />

Life happens, and you should plan for<br />

the unexpected. Otherwise, you might<br />

find yourself relying on your credit card<br />

or retirement savings during a financial<br />

setback. Keep the money in a high-interest<br />

savings or money market account where it<br />

can grow and where you can easily access<br />

it should you need to make a withdrawal.<br />

5. Put additional funds to work<br />

When you're fortunate enough to have<br />

leftover funds, use them wisely. After you've<br />

paid your debts—and yourself—consider<br />

investing the rest in the market. While<br />

investing involves risks and you could lose<br />

money in the market, you may also gain<br />

more from investment returns over the long<br />

run.<br />

The bottom line<br />

Juggling student debt can be tricky but<br />

investing in your future is worth it. College<br />

graduates can successfully manage loan<br />

repayment while saving for retirement. You<br />

don't have to choose one over the other, let<br />

us help you navigate these decisions.


HEALTH CARE COSTS IN RETIREMENT – ARE YOU PREPARED?<br />

Even if you've been saving diligently, health care costs can throw a wrench in<br />

your retirement plans. A report from the Employee Benefit Research <strong>In</strong>stitute<br />

estimates a 65-year-old couple could need as much as $383,000 in savings<br />

to have a 90% chance of covering their health care expenses—including<br />

premiums, deductibles, prescriptions, and out-of-pocket costs—in retirement.<br />

Here are four strategies to consider before you reach retirement age.<br />

1. MAKE THE MOST OF AN HSA<br />

If you're enrolled in a high-deductible health care plan (HDHP) that offers a<br />

health savings account (HSA), consider using it to sock away extra money<br />

for future medical needs. You can make tax-deductible contributions of up<br />

to $3,850 for individual coverage and $7,750 for a family in <strong>2023</strong>—plus an<br />

additional $1,000 for those ages 55 and older.<br />

Your earnings grow tax-free, and withdrawals of contributions and earnings are<br />

tax- and penalty-free when used for qualified health care expenses, including<br />

Medicare and long-term care (LTC) insurance premiums. And once you reach<br />

age 65, withdrawals from an HSA can be used for any purpose without penalty,<br />

although ordinary income taxes will apply to funds used for nonmedical<br />

expenses.<br />

2. ENROLL IN MEDICARE AT THE RIGHT TIME<br />

Most near-retirees know Medicare becomes available at age 65, but fewer<br />

realize there's a permanent penalty for missing the initial enrollment period<br />

(IEP). Your IEP is a seven-month span, including the three months before, the<br />

month of, and the three months following your 65th birthday. If you fail to<br />

apply during your IEP for Medicare Part B—which covers most everyday<br />

(outpatient) medical expenses—your monthly Part B premiums could go<br />

up 10% for every 12-month period, you go without coverage. There's<br />

also a 1% penalty per month for each month you delay enrolling in<br />

Part D prescription drug coverage (see "The ABCDs of Medicare").<br />

group health care plan for hospitalization. However, once you enroll in<br />

Medicare, you can no longer contribute to an HSA, so if your plan is to stay<br />

with your group health insurance and to keep contributing to an HSA after age<br />

65, you may want to postpone enrolling in Part A.<br />

Once you or your spouse no longer has employer-sponsored health insurance,<br />

you'll have eight months to sign up for Medicare during a special enrollment<br />

period (SEP) to avoid penalties.<br />

3. REDUCE YOUR MODIFIED ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME<br />

Medicare premiums are also affected by your modified adjusted gross income<br />

(MAGI). Relatively higher-earning retirees may be subject to Medicare's<br />

<strong>In</strong>come-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA), which is a surcharge<br />

on the monthly premiums for Parts B and D if your MAGI from two years prior<br />

exceeds $97,000 ($194,000 for married couples filing jointly). The differences<br />

in premiums for Part B, in particular, can be steep, so taking steps to reduce<br />

your MAGI could lower your medical costs as well.<br />

4. PLAN FOR LONG-TERM CARE<br />

Long-term care covers the costs of activities of daily living and can be<br />

a significant risk to your financial situation in retirement without careful<br />

planning. Long-term care insurance can seem costly but with the average<br />

annual cost of a private room in a nursing home at nearly $108,405, it may be<br />

more expensive not to have it.<br />

If you begin collecting Social Security before your 65th birthday,<br />

you'll automatically be enrolled in Part A (which covers hospital<br />

stays and is generally premium-free) and Part B. But if you<br />

plan on waiting to collect Social Security, be sure to apply for<br />

Medicare as soon as you're eligible.<br />

Be aware that Medicare coverage can be affected if you or<br />

your spouse is still working and enrolled in an employer's<br />

health care plan. For example, you may be able to delay<br />

signing up for Part B without penalty until workplace<br />

coverage ends. You could enroll for Part A while being<br />

covered by an employer plan—generally, you'll have no<br />

premium costs, and Medicare will pay secondary to your


VENTURA<br />

196 S Fir St, Ste 140<br />

<strong>Ventura</strong>, CA 93001<br />

(805) 339-0760<br />

ventura@iwaplan.com<br />

OJAI<br />

205 S Signal St,<br />

<strong>Ojai</strong>, CA 93023<br />

(805) 646-3729<br />

ojai@iwaplan.com<br />

The S&P 500 <strong>In</strong>dex or the Standard & Poor's 500 <strong>In</strong>dex is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. The S&P 500 is<br />

a float-weighted index, meaning company market capitalizations are adjusted by the number of shares available for public trading. <strong>In</strong>vestors cannot invest directly<br />

in an index. Note: <strong>In</strong>vestors cannot invest directly in an index. These unmanaged indices do not reflect management fees and transaction costs that are associated<br />

with most investments.<br />

The MSCI World ex USA <strong>In</strong>dex captures large and mid cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries* – excluding the United States. With<br />

1,012 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.<br />

The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond <strong>In</strong>dex is the most common index used to track the performance of investment grade bonds in the U.S.<br />

The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any<br />

individual or on any specific security. It is only intended to provide education about the financial industry. To determine which investments may be appropriate for<br />

you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results. Any indices referenced<br />

for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. <strong>In</strong>vesting involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed<br />

professional.<br />

Vanguard research study; Source: Francis M. Kinniry Jr., Colleen M. Jaconetti, Michael A. DiJoseph, and Yan Zilbering, 2014. Putting a value on your value: Quantifying<br />

Vanguard Advisor’s Alpha. Valley Forge, Pa.: The Vanguard Group.<br />

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market<br />

risk. Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price levels of such securities. An investor should consider their<br />

ability to continue purchasing through fluctuating price levels. Such a plan does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.<br />

<strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong> is a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where <strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong> and<br />

its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by <strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong> unless a client service agreement is in<br />

place.<br />

Advisory services offered through <strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong> (IWA), a registered investment advisor. Certain, but not all, investment advisor representatives (IARs) of<br />

IWA are also registered representatives of, and offer securities through LPL Financial, member FINRA/SIPC. IWA and LPL Financial are separate entities.

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