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abril de 2004 - CCHLA - Universidade Federal da Paraíba

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Generated by Foxit PDF Creator © Foxit Softwarehttp://www.foxitsoftware.com For evaluation only.copy the statistical part of Durkheim’s study of suici<strong>de</strong>,attempting to explain complex human conduct by usingonly social variables. But the upshot is that only a tinyproportion of the variance is accounted for.The 1967 study may be the high water mark in thisregard, since class of origin accounts for 16% of thevariance, about twice as much as in the Durkheim study,and replications. Still, the findings do not account for themajor forces at work in shaping income. As far as I know,there have been no studies of the role of luck, pluck,obsession, and so on, in addition to social class, in thebuilding of fortunes.The way in which human science imitates methodsof the foun<strong>de</strong>rs recalls an episo<strong>de</strong> that occurred during my<strong>da</strong>ys as a physicist. Our lab in Berkeley was built around a60-inch cyclotron, at the time the biggest in the world.When a group of Japanese scientists <strong>de</strong>ci<strong>de</strong>d to build theirown, they copied the cyclotron mechanically, including ahole in the magnet, an abysmal error. Like this group ofscientists, most human science copies the errors of thefoun<strong>de</strong>rs, as well as their advances.The French philosopher Emile Chartier observedthat "Nothing is more <strong>da</strong>ngerous than an i<strong>de</strong>a when it’sthe only one you have" (circa 1910). He may not havehad the disciplines and sub-disciplines in mind, but hisobservation fits exactly. Specializing in a single aspect ofknowledge is usually a good i<strong>de</strong>a at the time it isun<strong>de</strong>rtaken, but ultimately comes also to be animpediment to advance in knowledge. The original goodi<strong>de</strong>a is often used as a shield against other, equally goodi<strong>de</strong>as.Perhaps at this point the only way to generateresults that might explain the major causes of a socialphenomena would be to utilize variables from all therelevant disciplines. If economic, psychological, and socialvariables each contributed some 12% of the variance, andthe interaction between the three, say 15%, one wouldhave accounted for more than half of the variance. In thiscircumstance, it would be unlikely that an importantcausal factor had been omitted.I have been unable to find a study involving threedisciplines in this way. But recent studies of health levels114

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