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Untitled - UFRJ

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Use of Poisson Spatio-Temporal Regression Models for theBrazilian Amazon Forest Malaria Fever Counting DataJorge Alberto AchcarFMRP/USP & FCT/UNESPEdson Zangiacomi MartinezFMRP/USPAparecida Doniseti Pires de SouzaFCT/UNESPVilma Mayumi TachibanaFCT/UNESPEdilson Ferreira FloresFCT/UNESPIn this paper, we use Poisson spatial-temporal regression models to analyse a Brazilian AmazonForest malaria fever counting data for the period ranging from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we havethe present of some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of MFD (malaria feverdisease), as deforestation rate. We obtain the inferences of interest using a Bayesian approach andMCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distributionof interest. Discrimination of different models is also discussed.Keywords: Poisson Regression Models, CAR Models, Malaria Fever, Markov Chain Monte Carlo.49

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