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Brazilian Pediatric Risk of Severity Illness ModelEduardo Yoshio NakanoDepartment of Statistics, University of BrasíliaCristina Malzoni Ferreira MangiaDepartment of Pediatrics, Federal University of São PauloCarlos Alberto de Bragança PereiraDepartment of Statistics, University of São PauloThe aim of this work is to develop a prognostic mortality model and a severity illness index forchildren admitted in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) in a hospital in São Paulo. We use multiplelogistic regressions to determine two probabilistic models: the first supplied the death probability and thesecond was conditionally dependent on surviving cases of the PICU. These two models give us the vectorof probabilities for each patient. The first vector element focuses on the hospital survival probability,the second focuses on the death probability inside the hospital but after PICU discharge and the thirdprobability is focused on death probability inside the PICU. Based on these three probabilities, we havedefined a severity index that put the patients in the following order: from worst (PICU death) to thebest conditions (Hospital Survival). At the final step, the Bayesian net was applied to estimate newcalibration of probabilities (posteriori) using the severity index.105
A Semiparametric Bayesian Approach to Extreme ValueEstimationFernando Ferraz do NascimentoUniversidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroDani GamermanUniversidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroHedibert Freitas LopesUniversity of ChicagoThis work is concerned with extreme value density estimation. The generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) beyond a given threshold is combined with a nonparametric estimation approach above thethreshold. This semiparametric setup is shown to generalize a few existing approaches and enablesdensity estimation over the complete sample space. Estimation is performed via the Bayesian paradigm,which helps identify model components. Estimation of all model parameters, including the thresholdand higher quantiles, and prediction for future observations are provided. Simulation studies suggests afew useful guidelines to evaluate the relevance of the proposed procedures. Models are then applied toenvironmental data sets. The paper is concluded with a few directions for future work.106
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