Untitled - UFRJ

Brazilian Pediatric Risk of Severity Illness ModelEduardo Yoshio NakanoDepartment of Statistics, University of BrasíliaCristina Malzoni Ferreira MangiaDepartment of Pediatrics, Federal University of São PauloCarlos Alberto de Bragança PereiraDepartment of Statistics, University of São PauloThe aim of this work is to develop a prognostic mortality model and a severity illness index forchildren admitted in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) in a hospital in São Paulo. We use multiplelogistic regressions to determine two probabilistic models: the first supplied the death probability and thesecond was conditionally dependent on surviving cases of the PICU. These two models give us the vectorof probabilities for each patient. The first vector element focuses on the hospital survival probability,the second focuses on the death probability inside the hospital but after PICU discharge and the thirdprobability is focused on death probability inside the PICU. Based on these three probabilities, we havedefined a severity index that put the patients in the following order: from worst (PICU death) to thebest conditions (Hospital Survival). At the final step, the Bayesian net was applied to estimate newcalibration of probabilities (posteriori) using the severity index.105