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Em homenagem ao 65º<br />
aniversário do Prof. Heleno Bolfarine<br />
Campinas<br />
2015<br />
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
Universida<strong>de</strong> Estadual <strong>de</strong> Campinas<br />
De 2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015<br />
Campinas, Brasil<br />
ABE
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
APRESENTAÇÃO<br />
Mensagem <strong>de</strong> Boas Vindas<br />
É com imensa satisfação que o Departamento <strong>de</strong> Estatística da Universida<strong>de</strong><br />
Estadual <strong>de</strong> Campinas promove o XIV Escoal <strong>de</strong> Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão , um evento<br />
<strong>de</strong> elevado nível científico que contará com participantes nacionais e estrangeiros.<br />
O programa do XIV EMR inclui 12 Conferências, dois minicursos ( MC1 e Mc2), 24<br />
Comunicações Orais ( CO) agrupadas em grupos <strong>de</strong> 3 e 2 Sessões <strong>de</strong> Pôsteres (com<br />
55 apresentações <strong>de</strong> pôsteres em cada sessão).<br />
A Comissão Organizadora dá as Boas Vindas a todos os participantes que irão<br />
prestigiar o evento, e espera que o mesmo constitua uma oportunida<strong>de</strong> para a<br />
divulgação <strong>de</strong> trabalhos relevantes <strong>de</strong>senvolvidos por pesquisadores nacionais e<br />
estrangeiros do mais alto nível, sendo assim uma oportunida<strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong> interação entre<br />
alunos, profissionais e pesquisadores da área <strong>de</strong> Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão e áreas<br />
afins.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
AGRADECIMENTOS<br />
A Comissão Organizadora da XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão (XIV EMR)<br />
agra<strong>de</strong>ce o apoio das seguintes instituições: CAPES, FAPESP, Associação<br />
Brasileira <strong>de</strong> Estatística ( ABE) e o Instituto <strong>de</strong> Matemática, Estatística e<br />
Computação Científica ( IMECC) da UNICAMP, assim como todas as Fundações<br />
Estaduais, Instituições e <strong>Programas</strong> <strong>de</strong> Pós-Graduação do Brasil, que possibilitaram<br />
a participação <strong>de</strong> pesquisadores, estudantes e profissionais no evento.<br />
Departamento <strong>de</strong> Estatística<br />
Instituto <strong>de</strong> Matemática, Estatística e Computação Científica da<br />
UNICAMP<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
INDICE<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Programação 02/03/2015<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Programação 03/03/2015<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Programação 04/03/2015<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Programação 05/03/2015<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Minicurso 1 ( MC1)<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão Log-simétricos em R<br />
Luis Hernando Vanegas ( IME/ USP)<br />
Gilberto Alvarenga Paula ( IME/ USP)<br />
Resumo: In the context of regression mo<strong>de</strong>ls, the data for which the response<br />
variable is continuous, strictly positive, and asymmetric with possible outlying<br />
observations are commonly employed in various fields of practice. Being so, this<br />
minicourse provi<strong>de</strong>s a unified theoretical framework of semi-parametric regression<br />
analysis based on log-normal, log-Stu<strong>de</strong>nt-$t$, Birnbaum-Saun<strong>de</strong>rs, Birnbaum-<br />
Saun<strong>de</strong>rs-$t$, harmonic law and other right-skewed, heavy/light-tailed and strictly<br />
positive distributions, in which both, the median and the skewness of the response<br />
variable distribution are explicitly mo<strong>de</strong>led. In this setup, here termed logsymmetric<br />
regression mo<strong>de</strong>ls, both the median and the skewness are <strong>de</strong>scribed using<br />
semi-parametric functions of explanatory variables, in which their nonparametric<br />
components are approximated by natural cubic splines or P-splines. An iterative<br />
process of parameter estimation based on Fisher scoring, expectation-maximization<br />
and backfitting algorithms is <strong>de</strong>scribed.<br />
The behavior of the (penalized) maximum likelihood estimates is illustrated by<br />
using simulation experiments. A computational implementation of the proposed<br />
methodology in the {\tt R} statistical computing environment is also presented. The<br />
attractive features of this package inclu<strong>de</strong> the possibility of performing residual<br />
analysis by applying <strong>de</strong>viance-type residuals for median and skewness submo<strong>de</strong>ls,<br />
as well as sensitivity studies through local influence un<strong>de</strong>r usual perturbation<br />
schemes. Five real data sets are analized to illustrate the flexibility of the addressed<br />
statistical and computational tools.<br />
Público alvo: estudantes <strong>de</strong> mestrado, doutorado.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
8:10 as 10:10<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Minicurso 2 ( MC2)<br />
Misturas Finitas <strong>de</strong> Distribuições<br />
Camila Borelli Zeller ( UFJF)<br />
Celso Rômulo Barbosa Cabral ( UFAM)<br />
Víctor Hugo Lachos (UNICAMP)<br />
Resumo: Misturas finitas <strong>de</strong> distribuicões são utilizadas em situações on<strong>de</strong> existe<br />
heterogeneida<strong>de</strong> não observável na população. Por exemplo, suponhamos que<br />
imagens <strong>de</strong> células cancerígenas sejam objeto <strong>de</strong> estudo. Neste caso a variável tipo<br />
do tumor, classificada em malígno ou benigno, não é observável diretamente. Para<br />
classificar a célula em uma das duas categorias, usualmente observamse variáveis<br />
como raio, a textura e o perímetro do núcleo celular, <strong>de</strong>ntre outras (Street et al.,<br />
1993). Misturas finitas também constituem uma família extremamente flexível <strong>de</strong><br />
distribuições, útil para mo<strong>de</strong>lar dados que apresentam comportamento não usual,<br />
apresentando ao mesmo tempo assimetria, caudas pesadas e observações<br />
aberrantes. Os mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> misturas finitas tem sido objeto <strong>de</strong> investigação intensa<br />
nos últimos anos. Existem aplicações em diversas áreas, como biologia, engenharia,<br />
marketing e medicina, somente para citar algumas. Alem disso, uma vasta<br />
bibliografia está disponível, como os textos <strong>de</strong> Bohning (2000), McLachlan & Peel<br />
(2000), Fruhwirth-Schnatter (2006), Schlattmann (2010) e Mengersen et al. (2011),<br />
alem das edições especiais do periódico Computational Statistics and DataAnalysis<br />
(Bohning et al., 2007, 2014).<br />
Neste minicurso preten<strong>de</strong>mos apresentar os principais aspectos inferenciais em<br />
misturas finitas <strong>de</strong> distribuições, tanto no contexto Bayesiano quanto no contexto<br />
frequentista, alem <strong>de</strong> discutir alguns temas recentes <strong>de</strong> pesquisa na área, com<br />
<strong>de</strong>staque para aqueles que vem sendo <strong>de</strong>senvolvidos pelos autores <strong>de</strong>sta proposta.<br />
Público alvo: estudantes <strong>de</strong> mestrado, doutorado.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
8:10 as 10:10<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência <strong>de</strong> abertura<br />
Misturas Finitas <strong>de</strong> Distribuições<br />
Heleno Bolfarine<br />
IME - USP<br />
Resumo: Mist<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
8:10 as 10:10<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 1 (C1)<br />
Some contributions on nonstandard regression mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Luis Hernando Vanegas<br />
Pontificia Universidad Católica <strong>de</strong> Chile<br />
Resumo: We present some contributions to the statistical analysis of regression<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>ls un<strong>de</strong>r some non-standard assumptions, including censored, truncated or<br />
restricted continuous <strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt (response) variables, in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt (explanatory)<br />
variables measured with error and flexible families of non-normal distributions for<br />
the error terms and/or further unobserved (latent) random variables involved in the<br />
statistical mo<strong>de</strong>ls.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
14:00 as 15:00<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 2 (C2)<br />
The Bayesian ability of the restricted Conway-Maxwell-Binomial<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l to control dispersion in discrete data<br />
Josemar Rodrigues<br />
ICMC – USP<br />
Resumo: This paper <strong>de</strong>als with the Bayesian machinery for the estimation of the<br />
parameters of the correlated Binomial distribution which was generated from a nite<br />
correlated Binomial processes to solve dispersion problems. This mo<strong>de</strong>l is a<br />
restricted version of the Conway-Maxwell-Binomial (CMB) distribution<br />
introduced by Shmueli et al. (2005) which is the correlated Binomial distribution<br />
(CB) discussed in Kupper & Haseman (1978) and Bahadur (1961) if and only if<br />
some restrictions are imposed on the parameters. These restrictions give to CMB<br />
distribution the Bayesian ability to control the phenomenon of dispersion in count<br />
data toward the binomial scenery by means of the number of the correlated Bernoulli<br />
variables. An illustrative example with real data shows the usefulness of the<br />
proposed restricted mo<strong>de</strong>l.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
14:00 as 15:00<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 3 (C3)<br />
Some contributions on nonstandard regression mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Dipankar Bandyopadhyay<br />
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA<br />
Resumo: Periodontal studies often leads to data collected which are clustered in<br />
nature (viz. clinical attachment level (CAL) measured at tooth-sites and clustered<br />
within subjects) that are routinely analyzed un<strong>de</strong>r a linear mixed mo<strong>de</strong>l framework<br />
with un<strong>de</strong>rlying normality assumptions of the random effects and random errors.<br />
However, a careful look reveals that these data might exhibit skewness and tail<br />
behavior, and hence the usual normality assumptions might be questionable.<br />
Besi<strong>de</strong>s, periodontal progression might also be spatially associated, i.e. a diseased<br />
tooth site influences the <strong>de</strong>cay status of a set of neighbouring sites. Also, the<br />
presence/absence of a tooth is informative as the number and location of missing<br />
teeth informs about the periodontal health in that region. In this paper, we <strong>de</strong>velop a<br />
(shared) random effects mo<strong>de</strong>l for site-level CAL and binary presence/absence<br />
status of a tooth using a Bayesian paradigm. The random effects are mo<strong>de</strong>led using a<br />
spatial skew-normal/in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt (S-SNI) distribution, whose covariance structure<br />
follows a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) process. Our S-SNI <strong>de</strong>nsity provi<strong>de</strong>s<br />
an attractive parametric tool to mo<strong>de</strong>l spatially referenced asymmetric thick-tailed<br />
structures.<br />
Both simulation studies and analysis of a real data on the periodontal health status of<br />
Gullah speaking African-American diabetics reveal that our proposition provi<strong>de</strong>s a<br />
significantly improved fit over mo<strong>de</strong>ls that do not consi<strong>de</strong>r these features of<br />
periodontal data in a unified way."<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
15:00 as 16:00<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 4 (C4)<br />
Aceitação da homosexualida<strong>de</strong> e inteligência: evidência internacional<br />
Francisco Cribari Neto<br />
DE – UFPE<br />
Resumo: Nessa conferência serão apresentados os resutados <strong>de</strong> uma análise <strong>de</strong><br />
regressão baseada em dados internacionais sobre <strong>de</strong>terminantes da aceitação da<br />
homossexualida<strong>de</strong>. Em particular, será medido o impacto que a inteligência exerce<br />
sobre a aceitação da homossexualida<strong>de</strong>. Curvas <strong>de</strong> impacto são obtidas e inferência<br />
bootstra é realizada.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
15:00 as 16:00<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 5 (C5)<br />
Some contributions on nonstandard regression mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Somnath Datta<br />
University of Louisville, USA<br />
Resumo: We discuss how to extend parametric and nonparametric inference<br />
procedures when the classical assumption of in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nce is violated due to<br />
clustering. Clustered data arise in a number of practical applications where<br />
observations belonging to different clusters are in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt but observations within<br />
the same cluster are <strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt.<br />
While making adjustments for possible cluster <strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nce, one should also be<br />
aware of the informative cluster size phenomenon which occurs when the size of the<br />
cluster is a random variable that is correlated to the outcome distribution within a<br />
cluster, often through a cluster specific latent factor. We <strong>de</strong>monstrate the correct<br />
inference procedures un<strong>de</strong>r various scenarios.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
10:30 as 11:30<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 6 (C6)<br />
Box-Cox symmetric mo<strong>de</strong>ls and applications to nutritional data<br />
Silvia L. P. Ferrari<br />
Departmento <strong>de</strong> Estatística – Universida<strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong> São Paulo, Brasil<br />
Resumo: We introduce and study the Box-Cox symmetric class of distributions,<br />
which is useful for mo<strong>de</strong>ling positively skewed, possibly heavy-tailed, data. The<br />
new class of distributions inclu<strong>de</strong>s the Box-Cox t, Box-Cox Cole-Green, Box-Cox<br />
power exponential distributions, and the class of the log-symmetric distributions as<br />
special cases. It provi<strong>de</strong>s easy parameter interpretation, which makes it convenient<br />
for regression mo<strong>de</strong>ling purposes. Additionally, it provi<strong>de</strong>s enough flexibility to<br />
handle outliers. The usefulness of the Box-Cox symmetric mo<strong>de</strong>ls is illustrated in a<br />
series of applications to nutritional data.<br />
Joint work with Giovana Fumes.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
10:30 as 11:30<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 7 (C7)<br />
Bayesian Mo<strong>de</strong>ling of Sparse High Dimensional<br />
Data using Divergence Measures<br />
Dipak Dey<br />
University of Connecticut,<br />
Storrs, USA<br />
Resumo: We introduce a novel divergence based approach, called Bregman<br />
divergence, to mo<strong>de</strong>l sparse high dimensional problems. We also introduce a new<br />
prior which induces a new version of the (approximate) adaptive lasso in a Bayesian<br />
framework. Unlike the original adaptive lasso in which the weights should be prespecified<br />
prior to the estimation, in our approach the coefficient estimates are<br />
directly used as the weights. In addition, due to the generality of the Bregman<br />
divergence, the proposed mo<strong>de</strong>l is easily exten<strong>de</strong>d to generalized linear mo<strong>de</strong>ls as<br />
well as the group lasso.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
10:30 as 11:30<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 8 (C8)<br />
Bayesian Mo<strong>de</strong>ling of Sparse High Dimensional<br />
Data using Divergence Measures<br />
Francisco Louzada<br />
Resumo: We<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
10:30 as 11:30<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 9 (C9)<br />
Multivariate t nonlinear mixed mo<strong>de</strong>ls for<br />
multivariate longitudinal data with missing values<br />
Tsung-I Lin<br />
National Chung Hsing University,<br />
Taichung, Taiwan<br />
Resumo: The multivariate nonlinear mixed mo<strong>de</strong>l (MNLMM) has been exploited<br />
as an effective tool for mo<strong>de</strong>lling multi-outcome longitudinal data following<br />
nonlinear growth patterns. In the framework of MNLMM, the random effects and<br />
within-subject errors are routinely assumed to be normally distributed for<br />
mathematical tractability and computational simplicity. However, a serious<br />
<strong>de</strong>parture from normality may cause lack of robustness and subsequently make<br />
invalid inference. In this talk, I introduce a robust extension of the MNLMM by<br />
consi<strong>de</strong>ring a joint multivariate t distribution for the random effects and withinsubject<br />
errors, called the multivariate t nonlinear mixed mo<strong>de</strong>l (MtNLMM).<br />
Moreover, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed to capture the<br />
extra serial correlation among irregularly observed multiple repeated measures. An<br />
ECM procedure coupled with the first-or<strong>de</strong>r Taylor approximation is <strong>de</strong>veloped for<br />
estimating mo<strong>de</strong>l parameters.<br />
The techniques for estimation of random effects, imputation of missing responses<br />
and i<strong>de</strong>ntification of potential outliers are also investigated. The methodology is<br />
applied to a real data example on 161 pregnant women coming from a study in a<br />
private fertilization obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile.<br />
(Joint work with Dr. Wan-Lun Wang, Feng Chia University, Taiwan)<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
14:00 as 15:00<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 10 (C10)<br />
On local power properties of the LR, Wald, score and gradient tests<br />
in nonlinear mixed-effects mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Artur José Lemonte<br />
Universida<strong>de</strong> Fe<strong>de</strong>ral <strong>de</strong> Pernambuco, Brasil<br />
Resumo: The local powers of some tests un<strong>de</strong>r the presence of a parameter vector,<br />
omega say, that is orthogonal to the remaining parameters are studied in this paper.<br />
We show that some of the coefficients that <strong>de</strong>fine the local powers of the tests remain<br />
unchanged regardless of whether omega is known or needs to be estimated, whereas<br />
the others can be written as the sum of two terms, the first of which being the<br />
corresponding term obtained as if omega were known, and the second, an additional<br />
term yiel<strong>de</strong>d by the fact that omega is unknown. We apply our general result in the<br />
class of nonlinear mixed-effects mo<strong>de</strong>ls and compare the local powers of the tests in<br />
this class of mo<strong>de</strong>ls.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
14:00 as 15:00<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 11 (C11)<br />
Nonparametric Bayesian regression<br />
Peter Mueller<br />
University of Texas,<br />
Austin, USA<br />
Resumo: We first review some common approaches to nonparametric Bayesian<br />
regression. We briefly review regression with nonparametric residual distribution,<br />
nonparametric mean function and fully nonparametric regression (<strong>de</strong>nsity<br />
regression). We then focus on the latter and discuss in more <strong>de</strong>tail a novel mo<strong>de</strong>l for<br />
regression with a variable dimension parameter vector. The motivating application<br />
is subgroup analysis for a clinical trial of targeted therapy. The covariates are<br />
indicators of genetic aberrations, with each mutation only being recor<strong>de</strong>d for a small<br />
subset of patients.<br />
We construct the <strong>de</strong>sired regression mo<strong>de</strong>l as a covariate-<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt random<br />
partition mo<strong>de</strong>l, using for each patient only the available mutations.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
15:00 as 16:00<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência 12 (C12)<br />
Analysis of aca<strong>de</strong>mic performance of stu<strong>de</strong>nts via<br />
quasi U-statistics and generalized linear mixed mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Hil<strong>de</strong>te Prisco Pinheiro<br />
Department of Statistics, University of Campinas, Brazil<br />
Resumo: We present methods to assess un<strong>de</strong>rgraduate stu<strong>de</strong>nts’ performance.<br />
Emphasis is mainly given to potential dissimilar behaviors due to high school<br />
background (Private or Public), but socioeconomic status and <strong>de</strong>mographic<br />
characteristics may be used as well. Two analysis are presented: one based on a<br />
nonparametric method using measures of diversity and a <strong>de</strong>composition of quasi U-<br />
statistics to <strong>de</strong>fine average distances between and within groups; and another based<br />
on generalized linear mixed mo<strong>de</strong>ls (GLMM). An advantage of the nonparametric<br />
method over the classical analysis of variance is its robustness to distributional<br />
<strong>de</strong>viation from the normality. Moreover, compared with other nonparametric<br />
methods, it also inclu<strong>de</strong>s tests for interaction effects which are not rank transform<br />
procedures. Two data sets are analyzed, being both of them from the State<br />
University of Campinas (Unicamp). The first one is formed by stu<strong>de</strong>nts who<br />
enrolled at Unicamp between 1997 and 2000 and their aca<strong>de</strong>mic performance has<br />
been recor<strong>de</strong>d until graduation or drop-out. The second data set is formed by<br />
stu<strong>de</strong>nts admitted to Unicamp from 2000 through 2005 and their aca<strong>de</strong>mic<br />
performance and socioeconomic variables forms the study database. For each<br />
stu<strong>de</strong>nt we have the Entrance Exam Score (EES), the final Gra<strong>de</strong> Point Average<br />
(GPA) score as well as the number of courses he/she failed during his/her Bachelor’s<br />
<strong>de</strong>gree. The courses are separated in two categories: Required and Elective.<br />
Therefore, for the GPA score and the number of courses failed, each stu<strong>de</strong>nt may<br />
have at most two measurements. We mo<strong>de</strong>l the GPA score and the inci<strong>de</strong>nce of<br />
courses failed for Required and Elective courses according to the EES,<br />
socioeconomic and <strong>de</strong>mographic characteristics.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
15:00 as 16:00<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Conferência <strong>de</strong> Encerramento<br />
Exten<strong>de</strong>d Families of Continuos Distributions<br />
Gauss Cor<strong>de</strong>iro<br />
DE – UFPE<br />
Resumo: The construction of some wi<strong>de</strong>r families of continuous distributions<br />
obtained recently has attracted applied statisticians because the analytical facilities<br />
available for easy computation of special functions in programming softwares. In<br />
this talk, we outline some recent generating families of continuous distributions and<br />
discuss some of their properties. We review the beta, Kumaraswamy, gamma and T-<br />
X families of distributions. Some special cases, which are natural members of these<br />
families, are presented. Several known continuous distributions are found to be<br />
special cases of the current families. These properties are not difficult to be<br />
implemented in programming softwares such as R, MATHEMATICAand MAPLE.<br />
Some examples illustrate the potentiality of the new mo<strong>de</strong>ls.<br />
Horário<br />
24 h<br />
11:20 as 12:30<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Temática 1 ( ST1):<br />
Big Data<br />
Nonparametric Regression and Partial Least Squares<br />
Dimension Reduction in Multistate Mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Susmita Datta<br />
University of Louisville,<br />
Louisville, USA<br />
Resumo: In mo<strong>de</strong>rn medicine one may be interested in predicting the stage<br />
occupation probabilities of different stages of the disease of a patient from high<br />
dimensional genomic and proteomic profiles. We introduce a method of<br />
constructing non-parametric regression estimates of state occupation probabilities<br />
in a multistate mo<strong>de</strong>l.<br />
In or<strong>de</strong>r to tackle a potentially large number of predictors in mo<strong>de</strong>rn genomic and<br />
proteomic data sets we use partial least squares to compute estimated latent factors<br />
from the transition times along with the covariates which are then used in an additive<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l in or<strong>de</strong>r to avoid the curse of dimensionality. We illustrate the methodology<br />
using simulated and real data sets.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Temática 1 ( ST1): Big Data<br />
Testing Association without Calling Genotypes Allows for Systematic<br />
Differences in Read Depth and Sequencing Error Rate<br />
Between Data from Case and Control Participants<br />
Glen Satten<br />
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,<br />
Atlanta, USA<br />
Resumo: The quality of genotype calling for next-generation sequence data<br />
<strong>de</strong>pends on read <strong>de</strong>pth. Loci with high coverage can typically be reliably called,<br />
while those with low coverage may be difficult to call. In a case-control study, if data<br />
from case participants is sequenced to a greater <strong>de</strong>pth than data from controls, the<br />
difference in genotype quality can introduce a systematic bias. This can easily occur<br />
when historical controls (e.g., data from the 1000 Genomes Project) are used. This<br />
imbalance may also occur by <strong>de</strong>sign, to reduce genotyping costs among controls.<br />
For trios, bias can arise even when the coverage is the same in parents and offspring<br />
since errors in parental genotype calls are consi<strong>de</strong>red non-transmissions while<br />
errors in offspring genotype calls are <strong>de</strong>tected as non-Men<strong>de</strong>lian transmissions.<br />
Methods: We <strong>de</strong>velop likelihood-based methods for analyzing data from casecontrol<br />
and trio studies that directly uses data on reads without first making<br />
intermediate genotype calls. When the location of polymorphic loci is known, we<br />
show these likelihood approaches have appropriate size and good power compared<br />
with methods that use called genotypes. When the locations of polymorphic loci are<br />
not known in advance, we <strong>de</strong>velop screening methods to screen out loci that are<br />
estimated to be monomorphic, based on read data alone. We use a bootstrap<br />
approach to estimate which of the loci that screen in are truly polymorphic. Using<br />
these estimates, we then construct bootstrap tests for association that properly<br />
account for screening and preserve size. We further show that restricting to loci with<br />
estimated allele frequency ≥ 1/2N, so that the expected number of alleles seen is<br />
greater than one, increases the power of our approach by excluding loci that have<br />
negligible effect.<br />
Results: We illustrate our approach using data from the UK10K project. We use data<br />
from 784 cases from the Severe Childhood Onset Obesity Project, and are exome<br />
sequenced at 60x. Data for 1702 controls are from the Avon Longitudinal Study of<br />
Parents and Children and the TwinsUK study (only one twin used), and are whole<br />
genome sequenced at 6x coverage.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Temática 1 ( ST1):<br />
Big Data<br />
Nonparametric Regression and Partial Least<br />
Squares Dimension Reduction in Multistate Mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Sommath Datta<br />
University of Louisville,<br />
Louisville, USA<br />
Resumo: In this talk, we will cover various elements of prediction using Big Data<br />
leading to a high dimensional covariate. Typically, such data have inherent noise<br />
along with useful signals that are predictive of certain discrete or continuous<br />
outcome. Therefore <strong>de</strong>noising and feature selections are useful steps in constructing<br />
useful covariates that can be used in a statistical regression mo<strong>de</strong>l.<br />
Next, we review various mo<strong>de</strong>rn regression techniques, including latent factor and<br />
penalized methods, that are suited to handle large covariate vectors. In the final part<br />
of the talk, we cover the Super Regression method that is an ensemble method and is<br />
suitable for the Big Data paradigm.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Temática 2 ( ST2): Spatial Statistics<br />
Imputation of confi<strong>de</strong>ntial data sets with spatial<br />
locations using disease mapping mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Thais Paiva<br />
Department of Statistical Science at Duke University, USA.<br />
Resumo: Data that inclu<strong>de</strong> fine geographic information, such as census tract or<br />
street block i<strong>de</strong>ntifiers, can be difficult to release as public use files. Fine geography<br />
provi<strong>de</strong>s information that ill-intentioned data users can use to i<strong>de</strong>ntify individuals.<br />
We propose to release data with simulated geographies, so as to enable spatial<br />
analyses while reducing disclosure risks. We fit disease mapping mo<strong>de</strong>ls that predict<br />
areal-level counts from attributes in the file and sample new locations based on the<br />
estimated mo<strong>de</strong>ls.<br />
We illustrate this approach using data on causes of <strong>de</strong>ath in North Carolina,<br />
including evaluations of the disclosure risks and analytic validity that can result<br />
from releasing synthetic geographies.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Temática 2 ( ST2): Spatial Statistics<br />
An analysis of functional MRI with a three components<br />
hemodynamic response function<br />
Marco Ferreira<br />
Department of Statistics at Virginia Tech, USA<br />
Resumo: We <strong>de</strong>velop a novel methodology for functional magnetic resonance<br />
imaging (fMRI) analysis based on a three components hemodynamic response<br />
function. Specifically, we propose a novel hemodynamic response function that is a<br />
mixture of three gamma <strong>de</strong>nsities. In addition, we use a Johnson-Rossell nonlocal<br />
prior to mo<strong>de</strong>l the regression parameters associated to neuronal activation.<br />
Further, to estimate the mo<strong>de</strong>l parameters we <strong>de</strong>velop a Markov chain Monte Carlo<br />
algorithm. Our hemodynamic response function is flexible enough to accommodate<br />
distinct physiological responses in different parts of the brain. We illustrate our<br />
methodology with the analysis of a single-subject fMRI visual task experiment.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Temática 2 ( ST2): Spatial Statistics<br />
Latent Structure mo<strong>de</strong>ling in Spatio-temporal small area Health data<br />
Andrew Lawson<br />
Dept of Public Health Sciences, MUSC, USA<br />
Resumo: Hid<strong>de</strong>n structure in geo-referenced health data is now a focus of much<br />
research. There are a number of approaches to the mo<strong>de</strong>ling of such structure,<br />
ranging from classical random effect mo<strong>de</strong>ls to full latent variable mo<strong>de</strong>ling with<br />
geo-referencing. In this talk I will focus on two examples of recent latent variable<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l approaches. First I will consi<strong>de</strong>r the analysis of a spatially-<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt<br />
environmental predictor (PM2.5 in the counties of Georgia USA) and the use of<br />
latent space-time component mixtures in two stage mo<strong>de</strong>l for health exposure risk.<br />
Second, I will consi<strong>de</strong>r spatial survival mo<strong>de</strong>ling where we have a contextual spatial<br />
effect and discrete spatial changes in regression coefficients so that different area of<br />
the study region can have different relations to the health outcome.<br />
In this approach discrete spatial prior distribution mo<strong>de</strong>ls must be consi<strong>de</strong>red and<br />
threshold CAR mo<strong>de</strong>ls are proposed as a simple approach. This is applied to prostate<br />
cancer cases from SEER registry data for the state of Louisiana USA(2000-2004).<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Temática 3 ( ST3): Non parametrics methods<br />
Waveletizing statistical procedures based on Fourier expansions<br />
Michel H. Montoril<br />
University of Campinas, Brazil<br />
Resumo: In this work we will discuss the use of wavelets in statistical<br />
methodologies that are based on Fourier <strong>de</strong>compositions. We briefly overview<br />
methods like classification, estimation based on biased data, additive regression and<br />
estimation of conditional <strong>de</strong>nsities. We focus on the problem of estimating<br />
regression functions of heteroscedastic mo<strong>de</strong>ls of the kind Y = f (X) + g(X), where<br />
is in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt of X, with mean 0 and variance 1. We will emphasize the estimation<br />
of the probability function in mixture regression mo<strong>de</strong>ls.<br />
Basically, there is a process Y that can be observed randomly in the time, say T,<br />
which is supported on the unit interval. For a fixed time T = t, such a process can be<br />
either a random variable (r.v.) V with probability f (t) or a r.v. W with probability 1<br />
f (t), where V and W are assumed to have known and different means. We illustrate<br />
this method by numerical simulation studies for different probability functions f.<br />
Key words: Wavelet estimation, nonparametric regression, mixture regression.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Temática 3 ( ST3): Non parametrics methods<br />
Wavelet Shrinkage for Regression Mo<strong>de</strong>ls with Random<br />
Design and Correlated Errors<br />
Rogério F. Porto<br />
Banco do Brasil<br />
Resumo: Extraction of a signal in the presence of stochastic noise via wavelet<br />
shrinkage has been studied un<strong>de</strong>r assumptions that the noise is in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt and<br />
i<strong>de</strong>ntically distributed (IID) and that the samples are equispaced (evenly spaced in<br />
time). Previous work has relaxed these assumptions either to allow for correlated<br />
observations or to allow for random sampling, but very few papers have relaxed<br />
both together.<br />
In this paper we relax both assumptions by assuming the noise to be a stationary<br />
Gaussian process and by assuming a random sampling scheme dictated either by a<br />
uniform distribution or by an evenly spaced <strong>de</strong>sign subject to jittering. We show<br />
that, if the data are treated as if they were autocorrelated and equispaced, the<br />
resulting wavelet-based shrinkage estimator achieves an almost optimal<br />
convergence rate. We investigate the efficacy of the proposed methodology via<br />
simulation studies and extraction of the light curve for a variable star.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Temática 3 ( ST3): Non parametrics methods<br />
Aggregated functional data mo<strong>de</strong>l for Near-Infrared<br />
Spectroscopy calibration and prediction<br />
Ronandlo Dias<br />
University of Campinas<br />
Brazil<br />
Resumo: Calibration and prediction for NIR spectroscopy data are performed based<br />
on a functional interpretation of the Beer-Lambert formula. Consi<strong>de</strong>ring that, for<br />
each chemical sample, the resulting spectrum is a continuous curve obtained as the<br />
summation of overlapped absorption spectra from each analyte plus a Gaussian<br />
error, we assume that each individual spectrum can be expan<strong>de</strong>d as a linear<br />
combination of B-splines basis. Calibration is then performed using two procedures<br />
for estimating the individual analytes curves: basis smoothing and smoothing<br />
splines.<br />
Prediction is done by minimizing the square error of prediction. To assess the<br />
variance of the predicted values, we use a leave-one-out jackknife technique.<br />
Departures from the standard error mo<strong>de</strong>ls are discussed through a simulation study,<br />
in particular, how correlated errors impact on the calibration step and consequently<br />
on the analytes’ concentration prediction. Finally, the performance of our<br />
methodology is <strong>de</strong>monstrated through the analysis of two publicly available<br />
datasets.<br />
Key words: B-splines, leave-one-out jackknife, square error of prediction<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 1.1 ( CO1)<br />
Comparación <strong>de</strong> métodos <strong>de</strong> medición en presencia <strong>de</strong> un gold estándar<br />
Manuel Galea<br />
Resumo: En este trabajo discutimos inferencia estadística y diagnósticos <strong>de</strong><br />
influencia en un mo<strong>de</strong>lo estadístico usado para comparar instrumentos <strong>de</strong> medición<br />
en presencia <strong>de</strong> un gold estándar. Suponemos que las mediciones <strong>de</strong> los<br />
instrumentos siguen una distribución normal multivariada. Consi<strong>de</strong>ramos test <strong>de</strong><br />
hipótesis y regiones <strong>de</strong> confianza para parámetros <strong>de</strong> interés, e implementamos el<br />
método <strong>de</strong> influencia local para analizar la sensibilidad <strong>de</strong> los estimadores máximo<br />
verosímiles a perturbaciones <strong>de</strong>l mo<strong>de</strong>lo estadístico y/o <strong>de</strong> los datos. Finalmente<br />
ilustramos la metodología con datos reales.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Inferencia estadística, Diagnósticos <strong>de</strong> influencia, Comparación<br />
<strong>de</strong> métodos <strong>de</strong> medición, Gold estándar<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 1.2 ( CO1)<br />
Objective Bayesian inference in measurement error mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Mário <strong>de</strong> Castro<br />
Ignacio Vidal<br />
Resumo: In regression analysis, when the covariates are not exactly observed,<br />
measurement error mo<strong>de</strong>ls extend the usual regression mo<strong>de</strong>ls toward a more<br />
realistic representation of the covariates. In a recent contribution, Wang &<br />
Sivaganesan (2013) propose objective priors for the parameters in normal<br />
measurement error mo<strong>de</strong>ls. The prior distributions are specified for the parameters<br />
in the regression mo<strong>de</strong>l. Posterior inference requires MCMC computations. In our<br />
approach, the regression mo<strong>de</strong>l is seen as a reparameterization of the bivariate<br />
normal distribution. We adapt the general results for objetive Bayesian inference in<br />
Berger & Sun (2008) to the regression framework. MCMC methods are not<br />
necessary at all.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Acceptance-rejection, estimation, MCMC methods, regression<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>ls, simulation.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 1.3 ( CO1)<br />
Análise <strong>de</strong> Diagnósticos para o Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
Beta com Erro <strong>de</strong> Medida Multiplicativo<br />
Eveliny Barroso da Silva<br />
Carlos Alberto Ribeiro Diniz<br />
Jalmar Manuel Farfan Carrasco<br />
Resumo: Em análise <strong>de</strong> regressão, a análise <strong>de</strong> diagnóstico tem como papel<br />
principal averiguar a qualida<strong>de</strong> do ajuste do mo<strong>de</strong>lo. Esta verificação po<strong>de</strong> ser feita<br />
tanto através <strong>de</strong> análise <strong>de</strong> resíduos, que <strong>de</strong>tecta a presença <strong>de</strong> pontos extremos e<br />
avalia se a distribuição proposta para a variável resposta está a<strong>de</strong>quada quanto via<br />
análise <strong>de</strong> influência local proposta por Cook [1986]. Na análise <strong>de</strong> influência local,<br />
Cox and Snell [1986] discutem um método que avalia a influência <strong>de</strong> perturbações<br />
no mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão, por menor que seja esse fator <strong>de</strong> perturbação. Na literatura,<br />
há diversos trabalhos envolvendo análise <strong>de</strong> diagnósticos. Para o mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong><br />
regressão beta, po<strong>de</strong>mos citar as seguintes referências: Ferrari and Cribari-Neto<br />
[2004], Espinheira et al. [2008a], Espinheira et al. [2008b], Ferrari et al. [2011] e<br />
Carrasco et al. [2014]. Enquanto que para mo<strong>de</strong>los com erro <strong>de</strong> medida, temos:<br />
Kelly [1984], Miller [1990], Carroll and Spiegelman [1992], Zhao et al. [1994],<br />
Zhao and Lee [1995] e Xiea and Bo-ChengWei [2009]. Carrasco et al. [2014]<br />
realizaram uma análise <strong>de</strong> resíduos para o mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão beta com erro <strong>de</strong><br />
medida aditivo. Neste trabalho apresentamos as principais técnicas <strong>de</strong> diagnósticos<br />
construídas para o mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão beta consi<strong>de</strong>rando erro <strong>de</strong> medida<br />
multiplicativo.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Mo<strong>de</strong>los com erros nas covariáveis, Regressão Beta e Análise <strong>de</strong><br />
Diagnósticos.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 2.1 ( CO2)<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão bivariado inflacionado <strong>de</strong> zeros com<br />
estrutura <strong>de</strong> correlação autoregressiva <strong>de</strong> primeira<br />
or<strong>de</strong>m nos componentes aleatórios<br />
Natália Manduca Ferreira<br />
Carlos Alberto Ribeiro Diniz<br />
Resumo: Problemas envolvendo dados <strong>de</strong> contagem po<strong>de</strong>m resultar em conjunto <strong>de</strong><br />
dados com uma gran<strong>de</strong> quantida<strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong> zeros. Quando utilizamos distribuições usuais<br />
(Poisson, Binomial ou Binomial Negativa) em conjuntos com excesso <strong>de</strong> zeros,<br />
análises estatísticas po<strong>de</strong>m apresentar-se errôneas. As distribuições mais indicadas<br />
para este caso são as compostas por uma mistura <strong>de</strong> distribuições, sendo uma com<br />
massa no ponto zero e outra que se a<strong>de</strong>quaria aos dados caso não houvesse a inflação<br />
<strong>de</strong> zeros.<br />
Neste artigo, utilizamos a distribuição Binomial bivariada inflacionada <strong>de</strong> zeros<br />
como base para a construção do mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão binomial bivariado<br />
inflacionado <strong>de</strong> zeros com estrutura <strong>de</strong> correlação autoregressiva nos componentes<br />
aleatórios do mo<strong>de</strong>lo, também conhecido como mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão autoregressivo<br />
binomial bivariado inflacionado <strong>de</strong> zeros. A metodologia BLUP é utilizada no<br />
processo <strong>de</strong> maximização dos efeitos fixos (parâmetros) e efeitos aleatórios.Aparte<br />
computacional <strong>de</strong>ste trabalho foi realizada em linguagem Ox.<br />
Palavras-Chave:<br />
aleatório.<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los zero-inflacionados, binomial bivariada, efeito<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 2.2 ( CO2)<br />
Bayesian analysis for zero-or-one inflated proportion<br />
data using quantile regression<br />
Bruno Santos<br />
Heleno Bolfarine<br />
Resumo: In this paper, we propose the use of Bayesian quantile regression for the<br />
analysis of proportion data. We also consi<strong>de</strong>r the case when the data presents a zero<br />
or one inflation using a two-part mo<strong>de</strong>l approach. For the latter scheme, we assume<br />
that the response variable is generated by a mixed discrete-continuous distribution<br />
with a point mass at zero or one. Quantile regression is then used to explain the<br />
conditional distribution of the continuous part between zero and one, while the<br />
mixture probability is also mo<strong>de</strong>led as a function of the covariates. We check the<br />
performance of these mo<strong>de</strong>ls with two simulation studies. We illustrate the method<br />
with data about the proportion of households with access to electricity in Brazil.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Bayesian quantile regression; proportion data; two-part mo<strong>de</strong>l;<br />
proportion of households with access to electricity in Brazil.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 2.3 ( CO2)<br />
On estimation and influence diagnostics for zero–inflated<br />
Conway–Maxwell–Poisson regression mo<strong>de</strong>l: Full Bayesian analysis<br />
Gladys D. C. Barriga<br />
Francisco Louzada<br />
Vicente G. Cancho<br />
Resumo: In this paper we propose the zero-inflated COM-Poisson distribution. We<br />
<strong>de</strong>velop a Bayesian analysis for our approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo<br />
methods. We discuss regression mo<strong>de</strong>ling and mo<strong>de</strong>l selection, as well as, <strong>de</strong>velop<br />
case <strong>de</strong>letion influence diagnostics for the joint posterior distribution based on the<br />
ψ-divergence, which has several divergence measures as particular cases, such as<br />
the Kullback-Leibler (K-L), J-distance, L1 norm and χ2 -square divergence<br />
measures. The performance of our approach is illustrated in an artificial dataset as<br />
well as in a real dataset on an apple cultivar experiment.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Bayesian Inference, COM–Poisson Distribution, Kullback-<br />
Leibler Distance, Zero-Inflated Mo<strong>de</strong>ls.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 3.1 ( CO3)<br />
Imputation of missing observations for heavy tailed<br />
cyclostationary time series<br />
Christiana Drake<br />
Jacek Leskow<br />
Aldo M. Garay<br />
Victor H. Lachos<br />
Resumo: The aim of our research is to provi<strong>de</strong> algorithms of data imputation for a<br />
cyclostationary time series with heavy tails. We assume that time series of interest is<br />
K-<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt but also has heavy tails. We use the multivariate t distribution with the<br />
covariance matrix Σ of or<strong>de</strong>r 2 (K − 1) × 2 (K − 1). Moreover, we assume that the<br />
number of <strong>de</strong>grees of freedom ν is fixed and 2 < ν ≤ 6. We use the periodic sequence<br />
{ct} with the period H as the periodic amplitu<strong>de</strong> imposed over the stationary<br />
background time series. We propose four imputation algorithms based on the<br />
properties of the multivariate t-distribution. Using simulations, we compare the<br />
performance of those algorithm.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 3.2 ( CO3)<br />
Prospective space-time surveillance with geographical<br />
i<strong>de</strong>ntification of the emerging cluster<br />
Thais V. Paiva<br />
Renato M. Assunção<br />
Taynana C. Simões<br />
Resumo: We <strong>de</strong>veloped a space-time prospective surveillance method when the<br />
data are point events, monitoring if there is an emerging cluster. Typical application<br />
areas are crime or disease surveillance. At each new event, a local Knox score is<br />
calculated and spatially spread to form a stochastic surface. The surfaces are<br />
accumulated sequentially until they exceed a specified threshold, causing an alarm<br />
to go off and i<strong>de</strong>ntify the region of the probable cluster. The method requires little<br />
prior knowledge from the user and provi<strong>de</strong>s a way to i<strong>de</strong>ntify locations and time of<br />
possible clusters, through the visualization of the cumulative surface. We present a<br />
simulation study for different cluster scenarios, as well as an application to a dataset<br />
of meningitis cases in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Spatial Statistics, Disease Mapping, Surveillance, Point Patter,<br />
Space-Time, Local Knox Score, Cumulative Surfaces.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 3.3 ( CO3)<br />
Melhoramentos inferenciais via bootstrap no mo<strong>de</strong>lo<br />
beta autorregressivo <strong>de</strong> médias móveis<br />
Bruna Gregory Palm<br />
Fábio M. Bayer<br />
Resumo: O presente trabalho propõe melhoramentos inferenciais em pequenas<br />
amostras para o mo<strong>de</strong>lo beta autorregressivo <strong>de</strong> médias móveis (βARMA). O<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>lo βARMA é útil para mo<strong>de</strong>lar e prever variáveis contínuas pertencentes ao<br />
intervalo (0,1), como taxas e proporções.<br />
Os procedimentos inferenciais baseados nos estimadores <strong>de</strong> máxima<br />
verossimilhança possuem boas proprieda<strong>de</strong>s assintóticas, mas em pequenas<br />
amostras po<strong>de</strong>m ter <strong>de</strong>sempenho pobre. Neste sentido, são propostas correções<br />
bootstrap dos estimadores pontuais, assim como diversas abordagens bootstrap são<br />
consi<strong>de</strong>radas para melhoramentos dos intervalos <strong>de</strong> confiança. Tais correções são<br />
avaliadas numericamente via um extensivo estudo <strong>de</strong> simulações <strong>de</strong> Monte Carlo.<br />
Os resultados numéricos evi<strong>de</strong>nciam que as inferenciais em amostras <strong>de</strong> tamanho<br />
baseadas nas correções bootstrap propostas são mais confiáveis do que quando<br />
consi<strong>de</strong>rados os estimadores <strong>de</strong> máxima verossimilhança usuais. Uma aplicação a<br />
dados reais mostra que os valores previstos da variável <strong>de</strong> interesse são mais<br />
fi<strong>de</strong>dignos quando os estimadores corrigidos são consi<strong>de</strong>rados.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Spatial Statistics, Disease Mapping, Surveillance, Point Patter,<br />
Space-Time, Local Knox Score, Cumulative Surfaces.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 4.1 ( CO4)<br />
The Bivariate Sinh-Elliptical Distribution with Applications<br />
to Birnbaum-Saun<strong>de</strong>rs Distribution and<br />
Associated Regression and Measurement Error Mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Filidor Vilca<br />
N. Balakrishnan<br />
Camila Borelli Zeller<br />
Resumo: The bivariate Sinh-Elliptical (BSE) distribution is a generalization of the<br />
well-known Rieck’s (Ph.D. thesis, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson<br />
University, USA, 1989) Sinh-Normal distribution that is quite useful in Birbaum<br />
Saun<strong>de</strong>rs (BS) regression mo<strong>de</strong>l. The main aim of this paper is to <strong>de</strong>fine the BSE<br />
distribution and discuss some of its properties, such as marginal and conditional<br />
distributions and moments. In addition, the asymptotic properties of method of<br />
moments estimators are studied, extending some existing theoretical results in the<br />
literature.<br />
These results are obtained by using some known properties of the bivariate elliptical<br />
distribution. This <strong>de</strong>velopment can be viewed as a follow-up to the recent work on<br />
bivariate Birnbaum-Saun<strong>de</strong>rs distribution by Kundu et al. (J. Mult. Anal. 101: 113-<br />
125, 2010) towards some applications in the regression setup. The measurement<br />
error mo<strong>de</strong>ls are also introduced as part of the application of the results <strong>de</strong>veloped<br />
here. Finally, numerical examples using both simulated and real data are analyzed,<br />
illustrating the usefulness of the proposed methodology.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Sinh-Normal distribution; Elliptical distribution; Kurtosis;<br />
Moment estimators; Consistent estimators; Asymptotic properties; Regression<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>ls; Measurement error mo<strong>de</strong>ls.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 4.2 ( CO4)<br />
Reparameterized Birnbaum-Saun<strong>de</strong>rs regression<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>ls with varying precision<br />
Manoel Santos-Neto<br />
Francisco Jose A. Cysneiros<br />
Víctor Leiva<br />
Michelli Barros<br />
Resumo: We propose a methodology based on a reparameterized Birnbaum-<br />
Saun<strong>de</strong>rs regression mo<strong>de</strong>l with varying precision, which generalizes the existing<br />
works in the literature on the topic. This methodology inclu<strong>de</strong>s the estimation of<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l parameters, hypothesis tests for the precision parameter, a residual analysis<br />
and influence diagnostic tools. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate its<br />
performance. We apply it to a real-world case-study to show its potential.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Birnbaum-Saun<strong>de</strong>rs distribution; hypothesis testing; local<br />
influence; maximum likelihood method; Monte Carlo simulation; residuals.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 4.3 ( CO4)<br />
Inferência e diagnóstico em mo<strong>de</strong>los com<br />
erros nas variáveis baseado na distribuição Birnbaum-Saun<strong>de</strong>rs<br />
Jalmar M. F. Carrasco<br />
Jorge I Figueroa-Zuniga<br />
Victor L. P. Leiva<br />
Marco A. R. Álamos<br />
Resumo: Este trabalho aborda metodologias <strong>de</strong> estimação e diagnóstico em<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão baseados na distribuição Birnbaum-Saun<strong>de</strong>rs com erros <strong>de</strong><br />
medidas aditivo e multiplicativo. Técnicas <strong>de</strong> estimação como máxima pseudoverossimilhança<br />
e calibração da regressão são utilizadas. Também são abordados,<br />
medidas como análise <strong>de</strong> resíduos, influência global e local. Um conjunto <strong>de</strong> dados<br />
numéricos são utilizados, com o intuito <strong>de</strong> validar os resultados obtidos.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Distribuição Birnbaum-Saun<strong>de</strong>rs; erros <strong>de</strong> medida, regressão,<br />
diagnóstico<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 5.1 ( CO5)<br />
Robust Bayesian mo<strong>de</strong>l selection for heavy-tailed<br />
linear regression mo<strong>de</strong>ls using finite mixtures<br />
Flávio B. Gonçalves<br />
Marcos O. Prates<br />
Victor H. Lachos<br />
Resumo: In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
selection in linear mo<strong>de</strong>ls with heavy-tailed distributions. The new method<br />
consi<strong>de</strong>rs a finite mixture of distributions to mo<strong>de</strong>l a latent variable where each<br />
component of the mixture corresponds to one possible mo<strong>de</strong>l within the<br />
symmetrical class of normal in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt distributions. Naturally, the Gaussian<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l is one of the possibilities. This allows a simultaneous analysis based on the<br />
posterior probability of each mo<strong>de</strong>l. Inference is performed via Markov chain<br />
Monte Carlo - a Gibbs sampler with Metropolis–Hastings steps for a class of<br />
parameters. Simulated studies highlight the advantages of this approach compared<br />
to a segregated analysis based on arbitrary mo<strong>de</strong>l selection criteria.An example with<br />
real data is also presented.<br />
Palavras-Chave:<br />
selection; MCMC.<br />
Finite mixture; heavy-tailed errors; linear mo<strong>de</strong>ls; mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 5.2 ( CO5)<br />
Bayesian semi-parametric symmetric mo<strong>de</strong>ls for binary data<br />
Marcio Augusto Diniz<br />
Carlos Alberto <strong>de</strong> Braganca Pereira<br />
Adriano Polpo<br />
Resumo: This work proposes a general Bayesian semi-parametric mo<strong>de</strong>l to binary<br />
data. It is consi<strong>de</strong>red symmetric prior probability curves as an extension for<br />
discussed i<strong>de</strong>as from [4] using the Blocked Gibbs sampler which is more general<br />
than the Polya Urn Gibbs sampler. The semi-parametric approach allows to<br />
incorporate the uncertainty around the F distribution of the latent data and mo<strong>de</strong>ling<br />
heavy-tailed or light-tailed distributions than that prior proposed. In particular, the<br />
Bayesian semi-parametric Logistic mo<strong>de</strong>l is introduced which enables one to elicit<br />
prior distributions for regression coefficients from information about odds ratios<br />
what is quite interesting in applied research. Then, this framework opens several<br />
possibilities to <strong>de</strong>al with binary data in the Bayesian perspective.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 5.3 ( CO5)<br />
Inferência bayesiana em mo<strong>de</strong>los semiparamêtricos com erros nas variáveis<br />
Luz Marina Rondón Poveda<br />
Heleno Bolfarine<br />
Resumo: Neste trabalho estudamos a inferência estatística sob o enfoque Bayesiano<br />
nos mo<strong>de</strong>los semiparamétricos com erros nas variáveis, em que seu componente<br />
sistemático admite variáveis explicativas com e sem erro <strong>de</strong> medição, bem como a<br />
presença <strong>de</strong> um efeito não-linear aproximado através <strong>de</strong> um B-spline (veja, por<br />
exemplo, De Boor (1978)). Nestes mo<strong>de</strong>los, o componente aleatório do mo<strong>de</strong>lo<br />
consi<strong>de</strong>ra distribuições com caudas mais pesadas do que a distribuição normal<br />
multivariada, este componente é <strong>de</strong>scrito usando vetores aleatórios obtidos como<br />
misturas na escala da distribuição normal multivariada (veja, por exemplo,Andrews<br />
e Mallows, 1974), o qual proporciona flexibilida<strong>de</strong> bem como robustez frente a<br />
observações extremas na mo<strong>de</strong>lagem. Como exemplos <strong>de</strong>sta classe po<strong>de</strong>mos citar<br />
as distribuições multivariadas t-Stu<strong>de</strong>nt, slash, Laplace, hiperbólica simétrica e<br />
normal contaminada. Para obter amostras da distribuição a posteriori dos<br />
parâmetros do mo<strong>de</strong>lo propomos um algoritmo MCMC. O comportamento do<br />
algoritmo é avaliado através <strong>de</strong> um estudo <strong>de</strong> simulação.Aproposta metodológica é<br />
aplicada a um conjunto <strong>de</strong> dados reais, no qual po<strong>de</strong>mos observar que ignorar os<br />
erros <strong>de</strong> medição po<strong>de</strong> levar a obter conclusões erradas. Além disso, a função<br />
fmem() do pacote BayesGESM (http://cran.r-project.org/package=BayesGESM)<br />
no R (www.r-project.org) é apresentada, esta função fornece uma maneira fácil <strong>de</strong><br />
aplicar a metodologia apresentada neste trabalho.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Inferência Bayesiana, mo<strong>de</strong>los com erros nas variáveis, mo<strong>de</strong>los<br />
semiparametricos, algoritmo MCMC, B-splines, mistura na escala da distribuição<br />
normal.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 6.1 ( CO6)<br />
Randomly truncated nonlinear beta mixed-effects mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Carolina Costa Mota Paraíba<br />
Carlos Alberto Ribeiro Diniz<br />
Resumo: We present a class of randomly truncated nonlinear beta mixed-effects<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>ls where the truncated nature of the data is incorporated into the statistical<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l by consi<strong>de</strong>ring the truncation limits to be random variables and by assuming<br />
the variable of interest to follows a truncated beta distribution parametrized by a<br />
mean and a dispersion parameter. The location parameter of the responses is<br />
associated with a nonlinear continuous function of covariates and unknown<br />
parameters and with unobserved random effects. Maximum likelihood estimator of<br />
the parameters are obtained by direct maximization of the log-likelihood function<br />
via an iterative procedure and diagnostic analysis tools are consi<strong>de</strong>red to check for<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l a<strong>de</strong>quacy. A data sets consisting of observations on soil-water retention from<br />
a soil profiles from the Buriti Vermelho River Basin database is analyzed using the<br />
proposed methodology.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Truncated beta distribution, random truncation, nonlinear<br />
mixe<strong>de</strong>ffects mo<strong>de</strong>l, iterative maximum likelihood, diagnostic analysis, soil-water<br />
retention.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 6.2 ( CO6)<br />
The multivariate Gamma-GLG mo<strong>de</strong>l from the<br />
random intercept Gamma mo<strong>de</strong>l with random effect nonnormal<br />
Lizandra C. Fabio<br />
Francisco J.A. Cysneiros<br />
Gilberto A. Paula<br />
Resumo: We propose in this paper a random intercept gamma mo<strong>de</strong>l in which the<br />
random effect is assumed to follow a generalized log-gamma (GLG) distribution.<br />
This flexibilization in which has been suggested by Fabio et al (2012) allows<br />
distributions for the random effect skew to the right and skew to the left and has the<br />
normal distribution as a particular case. For a particular parametrization for the GLG<br />
distribution and specifying the a<strong>de</strong>quate link function, we <strong>de</strong>rive a new continuous<br />
multivariate distribution called Gamma-GLG . Then, we obtain the moments this<br />
joint <strong>de</strong>nsity function and a Newton Raphson iterative process was <strong>de</strong>veloped for<br />
obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters of the multivariate<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l. Two <strong>de</strong>sviance functions and residuals analysis are proposed and an<br />
applications with real data is given for illustration.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Generalized linear mo<strong>de</strong>ls; Random-effect mo<strong>de</strong>ls; Generalized<br />
log-gamma distribution; Residual analysis; Gamma-GLG distribution.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 6.3 ( CO6)<br />
Data-driven reversible jump to QTL mapping<br />
Daiane Aparecida Zuanetti<br />
Luís Aparecido Milan<br />
Resumo: We propose a data-driven reversible jump to QTL mapping in which the<br />
phenotypic trait is mo<strong>de</strong>led as a linear function of the additive and dominance<br />
effects of the unknown QTL genotypes. We also present and compare different<br />
methods to update the QTLs location and check the performance of the<br />
methodologies on simulated and real data-sets. We observe that the data-driven<br />
proposals improved the acceptance probability of dimensional change moves of<br />
reversible jump and, consequently, its convergence and increase the exploration of<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l space.<br />
Palavras-Chave:<br />
parameters block.<br />
QTL mapping; data-driven reversible jump; update of<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 7.1 ( CO7)<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo LSMIRT para varias populações<br />
Gualberto S.A. Montalvo<br />
Resumo: A multidimensional item response theory mo<strong>de</strong>l with latent linear<br />
structure for several groups is proposed. This mo<strong>de</strong>l was introduced in or<strong>de</strong>r to fit<br />
binary tests, which in turn are divi<strong>de</strong>d in several subtest and subsequently applied to<br />
different groups or populations. It is assume that each subtest measure a onedimensional<br />
latent trait (main latent trait or main ability). The main aim is to<br />
measure these latent traits. Furthermore, it is also assumed that the entire test<br />
measures a latent trait vector from tested subjects. This latent trait vector does not<br />
necessary have the same components as the main latent trait. Instead, it is supposed<br />
that the main latent traits are linear combinations of latent trait vector components.<br />
Therefore, they have a linear latent structure. Each item is assumed to belong to<br />
exactly one subtest. In this mo<strong>de</strong>l, the test dimension is <strong>de</strong>fined as the number of<br />
subtest and it may not equal the latent trait space dimension. In or<strong>de</strong>r to estimate the<br />
parameters, an augment data Gibbs sampler (DAGS) was implemented and tested in<br />
simulations. Besi<strong>de</strong>s, the mo<strong>de</strong>l was used to fit data from the ’First comparative<br />
survey on language, math and associated factors for 3rd and 4th year stu<strong>de</strong>nts<br />
(PERCE)’, which was carried out by the Latinamerican laboratory for assessment of<br />
quality of education.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Teoria da resposta ao item multidimensional, estrutura linear<br />
latente, vários grupos, subteste, traço latente.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 7.2 ( CO7)<br />
The odd log-logistic normal distribution:<br />
theory and applications in analysis of experiments<br />
Altemir da Silva Braga<br />
Gauss M. Cor<strong>de</strong>iro<br />
Edwin M. M. Ortega<br />
José Nilton da Cruz<br />
Resumo: Providing a new distribution is always precious for statisticians. A new<br />
three-parameter distribution called the odd log-logistic normal (OLLN) distribution<br />
is <strong>de</strong>fined and studied. Various of its structural properties are <strong>de</strong>rived including<br />
some explicit expressions for the moments, generating functions, mean <strong>de</strong>viations<br />
and incomplete moments. Maximum likelihood techniques are used to t the new<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l and to show its potentiality by means of three the real data sets in analysis of<br />
experiments. Based on three criteria, the proposed distribution provi<strong>de</strong>s a better t<br />
then the normal, skew normal, beta normal, Kumaraswamy normal and gamma<br />
normal distributions.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Log-logistic distribution; Maximum likelihood estimation; Mean<br />
<strong>de</strong>viation; Normal distribution.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 7.3 ( CO7)<br />
The log-odd log-logistic Weibull regression mo<strong>de</strong>l:<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>ling, estimation, influence diagnostics and residual analysis<br />
vJosé Nilton da Cruz<br />
Edwin M. M. Ortega<br />
Gauss M. Cor<strong>de</strong>iro<br />
Ana K. Campelo<br />
Resumo: In survival analysis applications, the failure rate function may frequently<br />
present a unimodal shape. In such case, the log-normal and log-logistic distributions<br />
are used. In this paper, we shall be concerned only with parametric forms, so a<br />
location-scale regression mo<strong>de</strong>l based on the odd log-logistic Weibull distribution is<br />
proposed for mo<strong>de</strong>ling data with a <strong>de</strong>creasing, increasing, unimodal and bathtub<br />
failure rate function as an alternative to the log-Weibull regression mo<strong>de</strong>l. For<br />
censored data, we consi<strong>de</strong>r a classic method to estimate the parameters of the<br />
proposed mo<strong>de</strong>l. We <strong>de</strong>rive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences<br />
on the parameter estimates un<strong>de</strong>r different perturbation schemes and present some<br />
ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample<br />
sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed. In addition, the<br />
empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with<br />
the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis<br />
usually performed in normal linear regression mo<strong>de</strong>ls can be exten<strong>de</strong>d to a modified<br />
<strong>de</strong>viance residual in the proposed regression mo<strong>de</strong>l applied to censored data. We<br />
analyze a real data set using the log-odd log-logistic Weibull regression mo<strong>de</strong>l.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 8.1 ( CO8)<br />
A Combined Gamma Frailty and Normal Random-effects<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>l for Repeated, Overdispersed Time-to-event Data<br />
Geert Molenberghs<br />
Geert Verbeke<br />
Achmad Efendi<br />
Roel Braekers<br />
Clarice G.B. Demétrio<br />
Resumo: This paper presents, extends, and studies a mo<strong>de</strong>l for repeated,<br />
overdispersed time-to-event outcomes, subject to censoring. Building upon work by<br />
Molenberghs, Verbeke, and Demétrio (2007) and Molenberghs et al. (2010), gamma<br />
and normal random effects are inclu<strong>de</strong>d in a Weibull mo<strong>de</strong>l, to account for<br />
overdispersion and between-subject effects, respectively. Unlike these authors,<br />
censoring is allowed for. Two estimation methods are presented. The partial<br />
marginalization approach to full maximum likelihood of Molenberghs et al. (2010)<br />
is contrasted with pseudo-likelihood estimation. A limited simulation study is<br />
conducted to examine the relative merits of these estimation methods. The mo<strong>de</strong>ling<br />
framework is employed to analyze data on recurrent asthma attacks in children on<br />
the one hand and on survival in cancer patients on the other.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Exponential Mo<strong>de</strong>l; Generalized Cauchy distribution;<br />
Conjugacy; Maximum likelihood; Frailty mo<strong>de</strong>l; Pseudo-likelihood; Strong<br />
conjugacy; Weibull mo<strong>de</strong>l.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 8.2 ( CO8)<br />
Destructive Negative Binomial cure rate Mo<strong>de</strong>l with<br />
a Latent Activation scheme and Random Effects<br />
Diego I. Gallardo<br />
Heleno Bolfarine<br />
Antonio C. Pedroso-<strong>de</strong>-Lima<br />
Resumo: In this work, we extend the Destructive Negative Binomial cure rate<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>l with a latent activation scheme (Cancho et al., 2013b) assuming the context<br />
where the observation are grouped into clusters. Parameter estimation is performed<br />
based on restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and a Bayesian approach based on<br />
Dirichlet process priors. Simulation studies are performed and we illustrate the<br />
performance of the mo<strong>de</strong>l with a real data set related to a sealant study in the<br />
odontology area.<br />
Palavras-Chave: EM algorithm; competing risks; bivariate random effects;<br />
restricted maximum likelihood; Dirichlet processes.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Comunicação Oral 8.3 ( CO8)<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão <strong>de</strong> Poisson com superdispersão para avaliação<br />
do impacto das variáveis climáticas no <strong>de</strong>senvolvimento<br />
<strong>de</strong> doenças respiratórias em crianças<br />
Natália da Silva Martins<br />
Thiago Gentil Ramires<br />
Mirian F. Carvalho Araújo<br />
Clarice B. Demétrio<br />
Resumo: As variáveis climáticas po<strong>de</strong>m causar sérios impactos na saú<strong>de</strong> da<br />
população humana, em especial na população infantil, uma vez que esta constitui o<br />
grupo mais suscetível aos efeitos dos fatores ambientais. Consi<strong>de</strong>rando este grupo o<br />
presente estudo tem como objetivo construir um mo<strong>de</strong>lo estocástico, capaz <strong>de</strong><br />
mo<strong>de</strong>lar o número <strong>de</strong> atendimentos ambulatoriais <strong>de</strong> crianças na faixa etária <strong>de</strong> 0 a<br />
14 anos do município <strong>de</strong> Campo Gran<strong>de</strong> (MS). Pois uso <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los estatísticos<br />
estão se tornando mais comuns na área da saú<strong>de</strong> pública, sendo que por meio <strong>de</strong>les é<br />
possível adotar medidas <strong>de</strong> prevenção contra acontecimentos, para este caso,<br />
mortalida<strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong> crianças relacionadas as efeitos climáticos. Ajustou-se um mo<strong>de</strong>lo<br />
<strong>de</strong> regressão <strong>de</strong> Poisson com superdispersão e com o mo<strong>de</strong>lo proposto foi possível<br />
verificar quais fatores climáticos da região <strong>de</strong> Campo Gran<strong>de</strong> estão associados ao<br />
número <strong>de</strong> atendimentos <strong>de</strong> crianças da mesma área, e como consequência, estimar<br />
o número <strong>de</strong> atendimentos em <strong>de</strong>terminadas épocas.<br />
Palavras-Chave: Doenças respiratórias; número <strong>de</strong> atendimentos; mo<strong>de</strong>los com<br />
superdispersão.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Tutorial (T1)<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão para dados censurados sob Distribuições Simétricas<br />
Aldo William Medina Garay<br />
Statsoft<br />
Resumo: Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal apresentar uma abordagem<br />
clássica e Bay<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Tutorial (T2)<br />
R and Google Maps<br />
Marcos Oliveira Prates<br />
DE-UFMG<br />
Resumo: O principal objetivo <strong>de</strong> mini curso é oferecer a pesquisadores <strong>de</strong> todas as<br />
áreas da ciência uma introdução na visualização <strong>de</strong> dados, principalmente espaciais,<br />
através da interação do R (http://www.r-project.org/) com as API's do Google, em<br />
mais <strong>de</strong>talhes GoogleMaps. O mini curso irá apresentar diferentes tipos <strong>de</strong> dados<br />
para que analises exploratórias possam ser feitas <strong>de</strong> forma conjunta entre R e Google<br />
API, ou seja, o usuário seja capaz <strong>de</strong> utilizar disfrutar <strong>de</strong> ferramentas da Google no<br />
R, assim como exportar dados do R para visualizações dinâmicas no GoogleMaps.<br />
Portanto, ao final do curso, o participante conseguirá <strong>de</strong> maneira introdutória fazer a<br />
interação R e Google que po<strong>de</strong>rá ser <strong>de</strong>senvolvida posteriormente. Para fazer o<br />
curso é necessário conhecimento básico da linguagem R.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Jovem Doutor (JD1)<br />
Estimação Robusta em Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Variáveis Latentes<br />
Denise Reis Costa<br />
(INEP – MEC) – Adv. Víctor Hugo Lachos Dávila<br />
Resumo: Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> variáveis latentes são amplamente para mo<strong>de</strong>lar variáveis que<br />
não po<strong>de</strong>m ser medidas diretamente, conhecidas como construtos ou efeitos<br />
aleatórios. Na literatura, é muito comum verificar a utilização da distribuição<br />
normal para a mo<strong>de</strong>lagem <strong>de</strong>ssas variáveis, contudo tal suposição po<strong>de</strong> ser<br />
ina<strong>de</strong>quada, especialmente na presença <strong>de</strong> valores discrepantes.<br />
Preocupados com a sensibilida<strong>de</strong> das inferências sob a presença <strong>de</strong> potenciais<br />
pontos discrepantes ou com dados provenientes <strong>de</strong> distribuições com caudas<br />
pesadas, neste trabalho propomos métodos <strong>de</strong> inferência robusta, utilizando a<br />
distribuição t <strong>de</strong> Stu<strong>de</strong>nt multivariada, para o mo<strong>de</strong>lo linear generalizado misto para<br />
respostas binárias (GLMM) e o mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> análise fatorial Tobit (TCFA) para<br />
respostas contínuas e censuradas. Para avaliação dos métodos propostos, foram<br />
realizados alguns estudos simulados, além da aplicação a conjuntos <strong>de</strong> dados reais.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Jovem Doutor (JD2)<br />
A Spectral Series Approach to High-Dimensional Inference<br />
Rafael Izbicki<br />
(DE – UFScar) – Adv. Ann B Lee (USA)<br />
Resumo:Akey question in mo<strong>de</strong>rn statistics is how to make efficient inferences for<br />
complex, high-dimensional data, such as images, spectra, and trajectories. While a<br />
large body of work has revolved on adapting nonparametric regression methods to<br />
high dimensions, statisticians have <strong>de</strong>voted less effort to re<strong>de</strong>signing estimators of<br />
other quantities to such settings. Some of these tasks are of key importance for the<br />
sciences; an example is the conditional <strong>de</strong>nsity estimation problem, which plays an<br />
important role in mo<strong>de</strong>rn cosmology. In this talk, we propose a nonparametric<br />
framework for estimating unknown functions in high dimensions.<br />
The basic i<strong>de</strong>a is to expand these functions in terms of a spectral basis -- the<br />
eigenfunctions of a kernel-based operator. If the kernel is appropriately chosen, then<br />
the eigenfunctions adapt to the intrinsic geometry of the data, forming an efficient<br />
Fourier-like orthogonal basis for smooth functions on the data. We show how this<br />
framework can be used for estimating several quantities, including the regression<br />
function. We provi<strong>de</strong> theoretical guarantees on the <strong>de</strong>veloped estimators and<br />
illustrate their use for several applications.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Jovem Doutor (JD3)<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão para dados censurados sob Distribuições Simétricas<br />
Aldo William Medina Garay<br />
(IMECC – Unicamp) – Adv. Heleno Bolfarine<br />
Resumo: Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal apresentar uma abordagem<br />
clássica e Bayesiana dos mo<strong>de</strong>los lineares com observações censuradas, que é uma<br />
nova área <strong>de</strong> pesquisa com gran<strong>de</strong>s possibilida<strong>de</strong>s <strong>de</strong> aplicações.Aqui, substituímos<br />
o uso convencional da distribuição normal para os erros por uma família <strong>de</strong><br />
distribuições mais flexíveis, o que nos permite lidar <strong>de</strong> forma mais a<strong>de</strong>quada com<br />
observações censuradas na presença <strong>de</strong> outliers. Esta família é obtida através <strong>de</strong> um<br />
mecanismo <strong>de</strong> fácil construção e possui como casos especiais as distribuições t <strong>de</strong><br />
Stu<strong>de</strong>nt, Pearson tipo VII, slash, normal contaminada e, obviamente, a normal.<br />
Para o caso <strong>de</strong> respostas correlacionadas e censuradas propomos um mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong><br />
regressão linear robusto baseado na distribuição t <strong>de</strong> Stu<strong>de</strong>nt, <strong>de</strong>senvolvendo um<br />
algoritmo tipo EM que <strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong> dos dois primeiros momentos da distribuição t <strong>de</strong><br />
Stu<strong>de</strong>nt truncada.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Jovem Doutor (JD4)<br />
Exploring Multiple Evi<strong>de</strong>nces to Infer Users Location in Twitter<br />
Erica Castilho Rodrígues<br />
(ICEB-UFOP) – Adv. Renato Assunção<br />
Resumo: Online social networks are valuable sources of information to monitor<br />
real-time events, such as earthquakes and epi<strong>de</strong>mics. For this type of surveillance,<br />
users location is an essential piece of information, but a substantial number of users<br />
choose not to disclose their geographical information. However, characteristics of<br />
the users’behavior, such as the friends they associate with and the types of messages<br />
published may hint on their spatial location. In this paper, we present a method to<br />
infer the spatial location of Twitter users. Unlike the approaches proposed so far, we<br />
incorporate two sources of information to learn geographical position: the text<br />
posted by users and their friendship network. We propose a probabilistic approach<br />
that jointly mo<strong>de</strong>ls the geographical labels and Twitter texts of users organized in the<br />
form of a graph representing the friendship network.<br />
We use the Markov random field probability mo<strong>de</strong>l to represent the network and<br />
learning is carried out through a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation technique to<br />
approximate the posterior probability distribution of the missing geographical<br />
labels. We show the accuracy of the mo<strong>de</strong>l in a large dataset of Twitter users, where<br />
the ground truth is the location given by the GPS position. The method is evaluated<br />
and compared to two baseline algorithms that employ either of these two types of<br />
information. The results obtained are significantly better than those of the baseline<br />
methods.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Workshop<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão em Julia<br />
Luis Benites Sánchez<br />
IME-USP<br />
Resumo: O principal objetivo do workshop é oferecer a pesquisadores <strong>de</strong> todas as<br />
áreas da ciência uma introdução nos mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão através da interação com<br />
Julia (http://www.julialang.org). O <strong>de</strong>senvolvimento <strong>de</strong> Julia começou em 2009 e<br />
uma versão <strong>de</strong> código aberto foi divulgado em fevereiro <strong>de</strong> 2012.<br />
Julia é uma linguagem dinâmica, apropriada para computação numérica e científica,<br />
com um <strong>de</strong>sempenho comparável a linguagens estáticas tradicionalmente<br />
utilizadas, tem uma sintaxe similar a do GNU Octave ou MATLAB.<br />
O workshop irá apresentar diferentes tipos mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão usando Julia.<br />
Também sera apresentado uma introdução ao novo linguagem, assim como uma<br />
pequena comparação entre o R e Julia para conhecer algumas vantagens e<br />
<strong>de</strong>svantagen. Portanto, ao final do curso, o participante conseguirá <strong>de</strong> maneira<br />
introdutória fazer a interação Julia e os mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão que po<strong>de</strong>rá ser<br />
<strong>de</strong>senvolvida posteriormente. Para fazer o curso é necessário conhecimento básico<br />
dos mo<strong>de</strong>los lineares.<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 1 (PO1) Terça-feira 03/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Imputação Múltipla <strong>de</strong> Dados Faltantes em Análise <strong>de</strong> Regressão Usando o SAS<br />
Armando Dias Caetano, Cecilia Candolo<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los Aditivos Generalizados para Posição, Escala e Forma (GAMLSS) -<br />
paramétrico na mo<strong>de</strong>lagem da taxa <strong>de</strong> congestionamento na fase <strong>de</strong> conhecimento<br />
Caio Batalha Dias Oliveira Jalmar Manuel Farfan Carrasco<br />
01<br />
02<br />
Competing risk analysis with masked causes of <strong>de</strong>ath applied to a genetic longevity study<br />
Rafael Pimentel Maia; Clarice Garcia Demétrio Borges; Rodrigo Labouriau<br />
03<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão Birnbaum-Saun<strong>de</strong>rs Bivariado<br />
Filidor Vilca Labra; Renata Guimarães Romeiro; N. Balakrishnan<br />
04<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão binomial negativo multivariado: Uma análise <strong>de</strong> diagnóstico<br />
Cristian Villegas; Lizandra Castilho Fabio; Mario <strong>de</strong> Castro; Jalmar M. F. Carrasco<br />
05<br />
Indicadores para Avaliação Esportiva via Cópulas<br />
Alexandre C. Maiorano; An<strong>de</strong>rson Ara; Francisco Louzada Neto<br />
06<br />
A Log-BGHN Regression Mo<strong>de</strong>l with Applications to Diabetic Retinopathy Study<br />
Rodrigo R. Pescim; Mariana R. Urbano; Edwin M.M. Ortega; Gauss M. Cor<strong>de</strong>iro<br />
07<br />
Profile Methods for the Transmuted Log-Logistic Mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
in the Presence of Right Censored Lifetime<br />
Daniele Cristina Tita Granzotto; Francisco Louzada<br />
08<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo Geoestatístico com Processos <strong>de</strong> Poisson Não Homogêneo<br />
Fi<strong>de</strong>l Ernesto Castro Morales, Lorena Vicini, Luiz K. Hotta, Jorge A. Achcar<br />
09<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 1 (PO1) Terça-feira 03/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Gráficos <strong>de</strong> controle <strong>de</strong> regressão beta com dispersão variável<br />
Cátia Michele Tondolo; Fernanda Maria Müller; Fábio Mariano Bayer<br />
10<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> Regressão para Série Temporal <strong>de</strong> Contagem<br />
com Excesso <strong>de</strong> Zeros e Sobredispersão<br />
David <strong>de</strong> Souza Dias; José Cardoso Neto; Max Sousa <strong>de</strong> Lima<br />
11<br />
Extensão do mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão Weibull na presença <strong>de</strong> longa duração<br />
Val<strong>de</strong>miro Pieda<strong>de</strong> Vigas; Francisco Louzada; Giovana Oliveira Silva<br />
12<br />
Análise <strong>de</strong> Sobrevivência na Presença <strong>de</strong> Censura Informativa:<br />
Uma Abordagem Bayesiana<br />
Renata C. Souza; Fábio N. Demarqui; Vinícius D. Mayrink<br />
13<br />
Estudo dos fatores <strong>de</strong> risco associados ao baixo peso ao nascer<br />
Priscila Pagung <strong>de</strong> Aquino Lapa; Marcus Vinícius Oliveira Palheta;<br />
Denise Britz do Nascimento Silva<br />
14<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lando a resiliência em trabalhadores idosos<br />
Rafaela Pereira; Thais Cano Miranda <strong>de</strong> Nóbrega; Rosangela Getirana Santana;<br />
Isol<strong>de</strong> Previ<strong>de</strong>lli<br />
Estudo <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão não lineares utilizados para<br />
<strong>de</strong>screver o acúmulo <strong>de</strong> matéria seca total em plantas <strong>de</strong> alho<br />
Guilherme Alves Puiatti; Paulo Roberto Cecon; Ana Carolina Ribeiro <strong>de</strong> Oliveira;<br />
Moysés Nascimento; Ana Carolina Campana; Fernando Luiz Finger;<br />
Mário Puiatti; Fabyano Fonseca e Silva<br />
Ajustes <strong>de</strong> equações <strong>de</strong> predição <strong>de</strong> valores da eman para frangos<br />
<strong>de</strong> corte utilizando a meta-análise e inferência bayesiana<br />
Amanda Botelho Alvarenga; Renato Ribeiro <strong>de</strong> Lima; Thelma Sáfadi<br />
15<br />
16<br />
17<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los multiestado com fragilida<strong>de</strong> compartilhada<br />
Renata Soares da Costa; Vera Tomazella<br />
18<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
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2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 1 (PO1) Terça-feira 03/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Porcentual <strong>de</strong> gordura em mulheres portadoras <strong>de</strong> neoplasia<br />
mamária sob tratamento quimioterápico<br />
Cátia Michele Tondolo; Fernanda Maria Müller; Fábio Mariano Bayer<br />
19<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão Kum-G com fração <strong>de</strong> cura<br />
Amanda Morales Eu<strong>de</strong>s ; Vera Lucia Damasceno Tomazella<br />
20<br />
Técnicas Estatísticas aplicadas aos processos <strong>de</strong> ajuste <strong>de</strong> histórico<br />
e <strong>de</strong> redução <strong>de</strong> incertezas em Simulação Numérica <strong>de</strong> Reservatórios <strong>de</strong> Petróleo<br />
21<br />
Marcos Henrique <strong>de</strong> Carvalho; Guilherme Daniel Avansi; Denis José Schiozer<br />
Análise <strong>de</strong> diagnóstico <strong>de</strong> influência local no mo<strong>de</strong>lo<br />
<strong>de</strong> calibração ultraestrutural normal com réplicas<br />
Bruno Pinheiro <strong>de</strong> Andra<strong>de</strong>; Reiko Aoki<br />
22<br />
Análise <strong>de</strong> Componentes Latentes da Aprendizagem <strong>de</strong><br />
Programação usando Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
Paula Daher Ximenes; Nátaly A. Jiménez Monroy; Márcia G. De Oliveira; Elias Oliveira<br />
23<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão Mistura <strong>de</strong> Escala Normal com Ponto <strong>de</strong> Mudança:<br />
Aplicação a Audiências <strong>de</strong> Televisão<br />
C. A. Huaira-Contreras; C. Borelli Zeller; F. Vilca<br />
24<br />
Estimation of causal functional linear regression mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
J.C.S.<strong>de</strong> Miranda<br />
25<br />
Estimação <strong>de</strong> um mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão não linear com<br />
resposta binomial negativa<br />
Elizabeth M. Hashimoto; Walkiria M.O. Macerau; Terezinha Aparecida Gue<strong>de</strong>s;<br />
Edwin M.M. Ortega<br />
26<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão Discretos para Dados Grupados: Uma Aplicação<br />
em Avaliação <strong>de</strong> Risco em Produto <strong>de</strong> Crédito Parcelado<br />
Tatiana Santos Rocha; Juliana Betini Fachini Gomes; Afrânio Márcio Corrêa Vieira<br />
27<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 1 (PO1) Terça-feira 03/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão para dados <strong>de</strong> sobrevivência com fração <strong>de</strong><br />
cura e censura intervalar<br />
Júlio Brettas; Gisela Tunes<br />
Um estudo da concentração <strong>de</strong> nitrato lixiviado no solo<br />
sob a aplicação <strong>de</strong> diferentes dosagens <strong>de</strong> vinhaça<br />
Simone Daniela Sartorio;Márcio Roberto Soares;Fabiane<br />
Karen Godoy;Sérgio Ricardo Rodrigues <strong>de</strong> Me<strong>de</strong>iros<br />
28<br />
29<br />
Uso <strong>de</strong> análise <strong>de</strong> regressão padronizada no ajuste da porcentagem<br />
<strong>de</strong> não conformida<strong>de</strong> na revenda <strong>de</strong> etanol, diesel e gasolina<br />
Candolo, C.; Soares, S. S., Saes, M. S. M.<br />
30<br />
Distribuição Espacial dos Pacientes <strong>de</strong> Anemia Aplástica<br />
Atendidos pelo Hemoba entre 2002 e 2012<br />
Samila Oliveira Lima Sena; Denise Nunes Viola; Marco Aurélio Salvino <strong>de</strong> Araujo<br />
31<br />
Riemann Manifold Langevin methods in Bayesian statistics<br />
Ricardo S. Ehlers; Mauricio Zevallos; Loretta Gasco<br />
32<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo weibull modificado para dados <strong>de</strong> sobrevivência com fração<br />
<strong>de</strong> cura aplicado a dados <strong>de</strong> câncer gástrico<br />
Marcos Vinicius <strong>de</strong> Oliveira Peres; Edson Z. Martinez; Isol<strong>de</strong> T. S. Previ<strong>de</strong>lli<br />
33<br />
Bayesian inference for latent traits in censored data<br />
with the multivariate normal distribution<br />
Eliardo G. Costa; Heleno Bolfarine<br />
34<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> Regressão Beta Retangular Aumentado em zeros e uns<br />
Ana Roberta dos Santos Silva; Caio Lucidius Naberezny Azevedo;<br />
Jorge Luis Bazan; Juvêncio Santos Nobre<br />
35<br />
Predição do prazo <strong>de</strong> valida<strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong> berinjelas minimamente<br />
processadas em estudos não-acelerados<br />
Natalia da Silva Martins, Eric Batista Ferreira, Flávia Della Lucia, Sônia M. S. Pieda<strong>de</strong><br />
36<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 1 (PO1) Terça-feira 03/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Bivariate rotated clayton copula sur tobit mo<strong>de</strong>l: a modified inference<br />
function for margins and interval estimation<br />
Francisco Louzada; Paulo H. Ferreira<br />
37<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão logística multinomial ordinal para avaliar os fatores explicativos do índice<br />
<strong>de</strong> massa corporal em pacientes portadores <strong>de</strong> doenças reumáticas<br />
Wagner Jorge Firmino da Silva; Sharlene Neuma Henrique da Silva;<br />
Bruna Nolasco Siqueira Silva<br />
38<br />
Maximum penalized likelihood inference in measurement error mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Lorena Cáceres Tomaya; Mário <strong>de</strong> Castro<br />
39<br />
Regressão Beta aplicada a dados <strong>de</strong> PIB relativo<br />
Deive Ciro <strong>de</strong> Oliveira; Rafael Agostinho Ferreira<br />
Efeitos <strong>de</strong> marcadores moleculares em diferentes níveis<br />
do rendimento <strong>de</strong> carcaça <strong>de</strong> suínos<br />
Patricia Men<strong>de</strong>s dos Santos;Laís Mayara Azevedo Barroso; Moyses Nascimento;<br />
Ana Carolina Campana Nascimento; Fabyano Fonseca e Silva;Simone Eliza<br />
Facioni Guimarães;Paulo Sávio Lopes<br />
40<br />
41<br />
A Bayesian Estimation for Mixture of Simplex Distribution<br />
with an Unknown Number of Components<br />
Rosinei<strong>de</strong> F. da Paz; Jorge Luis Bazán; Luis A. Milan.<br />
42<br />
Censored mixed-effects mo<strong>de</strong>ls for irregularly observed repeated<br />
measures with applications to HIV viral loads<br />
Larissa A. Matos; Luis M. Castro; Victor H. Lachos<br />
43<br />
Uso <strong>de</strong> séries temporais na análise <strong>de</strong> consumo aparente <strong>de</strong><br />
gasolina <strong>de</strong> janeiro <strong>de</strong> 1979 a julho <strong>de</strong> 2014<br />
Elayne Penha Veiga; Mario Javier Ferrua Vivanco; Paulo Henrique Sales;<br />
Fortunato Silva <strong>de</strong> Menezes<br />
44<br />
Um esquema <strong>de</strong> visita <strong>de</strong> um robô coletor <strong>de</strong> dados numa re<strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong> sensores sem fio<br />
Márcia H Barbian; Renato M. Assunção; Andrea Iabrudi Tavares<br />
45<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 1 (PO1) Terça-feira 03/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
P-distant sets and linear regression<br />
González, J; Lèskow, J; Lachos, V.<br />
46<br />
Estimation of parameters of the Bivariate Zero-Inflated<br />
Poisson mo<strong>de</strong>l via the EM algorithm<br />
V.A. Quispe, V.L.D. Tomazella , L.E.B.Salasar<br />
47<br />
Robust periodogram methods for time series with long-range<br />
<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nce: An application to pollution levels<br />
Fabio A. Fajardo; Val<strong>de</strong>rio A. Reisen<br />
48<br />
Análise multivariada do perfil dos conhecedores e usuários <strong>de</strong><br />
zooterapia em uma comunida<strong>de</strong> rural baiana<br />
Rodrigo <strong>de</strong> Souza Bulhões; Loyana Docio; Alana Narcisia Jesus Souza<br />
49<br />
Possíveis fatores explicativos para satisfação <strong>de</strong> estudantes<br />
universitários com a organização <strong>de</strong> seus cursos<br />
Sharlene Neuma Henrique da Silva; Maria Cristina Falcão Raposo<br />
50<br />
A Semiparametric Non-inferiority Test for Two-arm Survival Study with<br />
Proper Control of the Type I Error Rate<br />
Juliana Cobre; Debajyoti Sinha; Elvis E. Martinez; Stuart R. Lipsitz<br />
51<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>ling volleyball data via a compositional regression structure<br />
Taciana Kisaki Oliveira Shimizu; Francisco Louzada<br />
52<br />
Resistência à insulina e ácidos graxos: uma avaliação utilizando mo<strong>de</strong>los mistos<br />
Viviana Giampaoli; Elisete C. Q. Aubin; Nágila R. T. Damaceno; Bernardo F. Reimann;<br />
Marcelo Figueiredo <strong>de</strong> Almeida<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lling cell movements using multivariate stu<strong>de</strong>nt distribution<br />
and almost periodic mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Aldo Medina Garay; Jacek Leskow; Monika Bednarz; Natalia Koson; Agnieszka Karpinska<br />
53<br />
54<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 1 (PO1) Terça-feira 03/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Um estudo sobre os aspectos inferenciais da distribuição Birnbaum-Saun<strong>de</strong>rs Normal<br />
Assimétrica sob a parametrização centrada<br />
Nathalia Lima Chaves; Caio Lucidius Naberezny Azevedo; Filidor Edilfonso Vilca Labra;<br />
Juvêncio Santos Nobre<br />
55<br />
Análise da condição <strong>de</strong> germinação em um estudo longitudinal com laranjeiras<br />
I<strong>de</strong>mauro Antonio Rodrigues <strong>de</strong> Lara; Sílvia Maria <strong>de</strong> Freitas; Ana Maria Souza <strong>de</strong> Araujo;<br />
Vanessa Voigt; Rodrigo Rocha Latado<br />
56<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los da Teoria <strong>de</strong> Resposta ao Item Multidimensionais Assimétricos <strong>de</strong> Grupos Múltiplos<br />
Para Respostas Dicotômicas sob um Enfoque Bayesiano<br />
Juan Leonardo P. Gómez; Caio Lucidius Naberezny Azevedo<br />
57<br />
Análise Bayesiana para o mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão não linear com erros t-Stu<strong>de</strong>nt<br />
Aline Campos Reis <strong>de</strong> Souza; Vicente Garibay Cancho<br />
58<br />
Nonlinear mixed-effects mo<strong>de</strong>ls for a bioequivalence problem<br />
Cibele M. Russo; Sten P. Willemsen; D. Leão; Emmanuel Lesaffre<br />
59<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão ordinal para a satisfação do usuário do transporte coletivo<br />
<strong>de</strong> Botucatu no ano <strong>de</strong> 2014<br />
Miriam Harumi Tsunemi; Ritieli Aparecida <strong>de</strong> Lima<br />
60<br />
Regressão antitônica na estimação do tamanho ótimo <strong>de</strong> parcela em<br />
experimento horticola<br />
Guido Gustavo Humada-Gonzalez; Augusto Ramalho <strong>de</strong> Morais; Adriano Teodoro Bruzi;<br />
Gilberto Rodrigues Liska; César Arnaldo Caballero; José Humada Sosa<br />
Método <strong>de</strong> Classificação Robusto para Dados com Ruído<br />
no Rótulo baseado em Árvores Geradoras Mínimas<br />
Letícia Cavalari Pinheiro; Renato Martins Assunção<br />
61<br />
62<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lación <strong>de</strong> los atributos que inci<strong>de</strong>n en la elección <strong>de</strong>l consumidor<br />
<strong>de</strong> alimentos funcionales<br />
Alfonso Tesén Arroyo; Elena Gabriela Chau LooKung<br />
63<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 2 (PO2) Quarta-feira 04/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
A Bayesian Approach for a New Long-term Survival Mo<strong>de</strong>ls with Latent Activation<br />
Adriano K. Suzuki; Vicente G. Cancho; Francisco Louzada; Gladys D. C. Barriga<br />
01<br />
Análise <strong>de</strong> Regressão Múltipla para o mapeamento genético <strong>de</strong> hipertensão arterial<br />
Elisabeth Regina <strong>de</strong> Toledo; Antônio Policarpo Souza Carneiro.<br />
02<br />
Inference for a Truncated Positive Normal Distribution<br />
Héctor J. Gómez; Neveka M. Olmos; Héctor Varela; Heleno Bolfarine<br />
03<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los Não-Lineares Aplicados à Produção Leiteira <strong>de</strong> Três<br />
Raças <strong>de</strong> Bovinos do Município <strong>de</strong> Castro, Paraná<br />
An<strong>de</strong>rson Paulo Scorsato; Vinícius Menarin; Suely Ruiz Giolo<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lando o número <strong>de</strong> gols por partida <strong>de</strong> futebol via Regressão <strong>de</strong> Poisson:<br />
Um estudo aplicado à temporada 2013 do Cruzeiro Esporte Clube<br />
Eduardo Campana Barbosa; Carlos Henrique Osório Silva; Moysés Nascimento;<br />
Rômulo César Manuli;<br />
04<br />
05<br />
Confiabilida<strong>de</strong> <strong>de</strong> re<strong>de</strong>s <strong>de</strong> coautoria: Uma abordagem Bayesiana<br />
com enfoque nos vértices ou pesquisadores<br />
Taiane <strong>de</strong> Paula Ferreira; Sandra Cristina <strong>de</strong> Oliveira<br />
06<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo Normal-Generalizada-PAR: Uma aplicação a séries periódicas<br />
E<strong>de</strong>r Angelo Milani; Marinho G. Andra<strong>de</strong><br />
07<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lagem do Índice <strong>de</strong> Desenvolvimento Humano por Educação<br />
usando o Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> Regressão Beta<br />
Raí Silvério Machado; Gina Prove<strong>de</strong>l; Bruna Campos Lyrio<br />
08<br />
Diagnóstico do mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> calibração linear<br />
Bessa C., Geórgia; Santos, Y. M. S.; Blas, Betsabé.<br />
09<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 2 (PO2) Quarta-feira 04/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Associação entre a não realização do exame preventivo <strong>de</strong> câncer do colo <strong>de</strong> útero<br />
e características socioeconômicas, <strong>de</strong>mográficas, comportamentais e <strong>de</strong> saú<strong>de</strong> da<br />
mulher, no Brasil.<br />
Keilane Alves Pereira; José Rodrigo <strong>de</strong> Moraes; Luz Amanda Melgar Santan<strong>de</strong>r.<br />
Transformed Generalized ARMA mo<strong>de</strong>ls with Gamma and inverse<br />
Gaussian distributions<br />
Breno Silveira <strong>de</strong> Andra<strong>de</strong> ; Marinho G. Andra<strong>de</strong> ; Ricardo S. Ehlers<br />
10<br />
11<br />
Diagnóstico <strong>de</strong> influência em mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão não linear para dados censurados<br />
e com distribuições Normais/In<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>ntes<br />
Isabel Cristina Gomes; Lour<strong>de</strong>s Coral Contreras Montenegro; Marcos Oliveira Prates;<br />
Victor Hugo Lachos<br />
12<br />
A Mixed-Effect Mo<strong>de</strong>l for Positive Responses Augmented by Zeros<br />
Mariana Rodrigues-Motta; Diana M.G. Soto; Victor H. Lachos; Filidor V. Labra;<br />
Valéria T. Baltar; Eliseu V. Júnior; Regina M. Fisberg; Dirce M.L. Marchioni<br />
13<br />
Gráfico t² <strong>de</strong> hotelling: usando o r para obter o nma para um processo<br />
bivariado e autocorrelacionado<br />
Francimário Alves <strong>de</strong> Lima; Joelton Fonseca Barbosa; Pledson Gue<strong>de</strong>s <strong>de</strong> Me<strong>de</strong>iros.<br />
14<br />
Cure Rate Regression Mo<strong>de</strong>ls Consi<strong>de</strong>ring The Burr XII Distribution<br />
Emílio Augusto Coelho-Barros; Josmar Mazucheli; Jorge Alberto Achcar<br />
15<br />
Clustering repeated ordinal data: a bayesian hierarchical<br />
approach based on finite mixtures<br />
Roy Costilla; Ivy Liu, Richard Arnold<br />
16<br />
Coeficiente <strong>de</strong> curtose em mo<strong>de</strong>los lineares generalizados<br />
Fabiana Uchôa; Denise A. Botter; Mônica C. Sandoval<br />
17<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão autoregressivo série <strong>de</strong> potência modificado inflacionado <strong>de</strong> zeros<br />
Natália Manduca Ferreira; Carlos Alberto Ribeiro Diniz<br />
18<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 2 (PO2) Quarta-feira 04/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Correções bootstrap <strong>de</strong> testes <strong>de</strong> hipóteses no mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão beta inflacionado<br />
Laís Helen Loose; Fábio Mariano Bayer<br />
19<br />
Seleção <strong>de</strong> genótipos <strong>de</strong> cana-<strong>de</strong>-açúcar usando regressão logística<br />
Bruno Portela Brasileiro; Luiz Alexandre Peternelli; Jaqueline Gonçalves Fernan<strong>de</strong>s;<br />
Gustavo Felipe Ferreira Vieira; Lucas Santos Lopes; Mateus Teles Vital Gonçalves<br />
20<br />
Confi<strong>de</strong>nce interval for effective dose in mixed mo<strong>de</strong>ls<br />
Mariana Ragassi Urbano; Clarice Garcia Borges Demétrio; John Hin<strong>de</strong>;<br />
Rodrigo Rossetto Pescim; Everton Batista da Rocha.<br />
21<br />
Delineamentos ótimos baseados no critério <strong>de</strong> I-otimalida<strong>de</strong> para<br />
experimentos em blocos <strong>de</strong> efeitos fixos<br />
Heloisa Maria <strong>de</strong> Oliveira; Luzia Aparecida Trinca<br />
22<br />
Estudo <strong>de</strong> malhas para dados geoestatísticos com aproximação via sp<strong>de</strong><br />
Ana Julia Righetto; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro Junior<br />
23<br />
Análise do impacto da histerectomia e das condições socioeconômicas<br />
na saú<strong>de</strong> autorreferida <strong>de</strong> mulheres no Brasil<br />
Gabriel <strong>de</strong> Aguiar Mendonça; Luz Amanda Melgar Santan<strong>de</strong>r; José Rodrigo <strong>de</strong> Moraes<br />
24<br />
Efeitos da especificação incorreta das funções <strong>de</strong> ligação no mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong><br />
regressão beta com dispersão variável<br />
Diego Ramos Canterle, Bruna Gregory Palm, Fabio Mariano Baye<br />
25<br />
GARMA Mo<strong>de</strong>ls for Counting Data: An Application on Financial Time Series. 26<br />
Breno Silveira <strong>de</strong> Andra<strong>de</strong>; Marinho G. Andra<strong>de</strong>; Ricardo S. Ehlers; Dorival Leão Pinto Jr.<br />
A família <strong>de</strong> distribuições Weibull generalizada<br />
Thiago Gentil Ramires; Gauss Moutinho Cor<strong>de</strong>iro; Edwin Moises Marcos Ortega.<br />
27<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 2 (PO2) Quarta-feira 04/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão para análise <strong>de</strong> dados <strong>de</strong> contagem truncados<br />
Nívea B. da Silva; Leila A. F. Amorim; Rosemeire L. Fiaccone; Vanessa Morato<br />
28<br />
A Bayesian Approach to Zero-Modified Poisson Mo<strong>de</strong>l for the Prediction of Match<br />
Outcomes: An Application to the 2012-2013 La Liga Season<br />
Katiane S. Conceição; Adriano K. Suzuki; Marinho G. Andra<strong>de</strong>; Francisco Louzada<br />
29<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão linear potência normal com intercepto aleatório potência normal<br />
Roger Tovar Falon; Heleno Bolfarine; Guillermo Martínez Flórez<br />
30<br />
A new Birnbaum-Saun<strong>de</strong>rs frailty mo<strong>de</strong>l and associated inference<br />
Jeremias Leão; Vera Tomazella; Victor Leiva<br />
31<br />
Método <strong>de</strong> Buckley-James no ajuste <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> regressão linear para dados <strong>de</strong><br />
sobrevivência <strong>de</strong> pacientes submetidos à ligadura elástica <strong>de</strong> varizes esofágicas.<br />
Rogério Antonio <strong>de</strong> Oliveira, Liciana Vaz <strong>de</strong> Arruda Silveira, Giovanni Faria Silva<br />
32<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los Aditivos Generalizados Funcionais: método <strong>de</strong> estimação<br />
e predição para respostas binárias<br />
José Roberto Silva dos Santos; Larissa Ávila Matos; Julian A. Collazos.<br />
33<br />
A quantile parametric mixed regression mo<strong>de</strong>l for boun<strong>de</strong>d response variables<br />
Cristian L. Bayes; Jorge L. Bazán; Mário <strong>de</strong> Castro<br />
34<br />
A Diferential Geometric MCMC Estimation Approach<br />
for a Fractional Beta Mean Regression Mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
Luis Valdivieso; Cristian L. Bayes.<br />
35<br />
Self-Mo<strong>de</strong>ling Ordinal Mo<strong>de</strong>l with Time Invariant Covariates -<br />
An Application to Prostate Cancer data<br />
Aliakbar Mastani Shirazi, Kalyan Das, Aluisio Pinheiro<br />
36<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 2 (PO2) Quarta-feira 04/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Análises da influência do fechamento do dossel na diversida<strong>de</strong> e<br />
<strong>de</strong>nsida<strong>de</strong> da regeneração natural em áreas em processo <strong>de</strong> restauração<br />
Gilberto Rodrigues Liska; Luciana Maria <strong>de</strong> Souza; Guido Gustavo Humada-Gonzalez;<br />
Soraya Alvarenga Botelho; Marcelo Ângelo Cirillo; Regiane Aparecida Vilas Bôas Faria<br />
37<br />
Proprieda<strong>de</strong>s do resíduo quantílico em mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão gaussiana inversa<br />
Juliana Scudilio Rodrigues; Gustavo H. A. Pereira<br />
38<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>los da Teoria <strong>de</strong> Resposta ao Item assimétricos <strong>de</strong> grupos múltiplos para respostas politômicas<br />
nominais e ordinais sob um enfoque bayesiano<br />
Eduardo Vargas Ferreira; Caio Lucidius Naberezny Azevedo<br />
39<br />
Wald test in finite samples<br />
Tiago M. Magalhães; Denise A. Botter; Mônica C. Sandoval<br />
40<br />
Extensão dos Mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão PLS com Erros Heteroscedásticos<br />
Marcelo Henrique Casagran<strong>de</strong>; Carlos Alberto Ribeiro Diniz<br />
41<br />
Bayesian truncated nonlinear beta regression mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />
Carlos Alberto Ribeiro Diniz; Carolina Costa Mota Paraba<br />
42<br />
Regressão Múltipla: análise <strong>de</strong> fermentação<br />
Eucymara Franca Nunes Santos; Gabriela da Cunha Torchia<br />
43<br />
Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis: Um Enfoque por Mo<strong>de</strong>los Lineares Generalizados<br />
Eduardo Campana Barbosa; Carlos Henrique Osório Silva; Moysés Nascimento;<br />
Rômulo César Manuli;<br />
Estudo e implementação da função <strong>de</strong> crescimento adaptada a espécie<br />
Schizolobium Amazonicus (vulgo Paricá).<br />
Rodrigo Cesar Freitas da Silva, Rayssa Caroline da Conceição Ribeiro,<br />
João Marcelo Brazão Protázio.<br />
44<br />
45<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 2 (PO2) Quarta-feira 04/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Método GEE duplo robusto para análise <strong>de</strong> dados longitudinais<br />
ordinais com perda MAR<br />
José Luiz Padilha da Silva; Enrico Antonio Colosimo; Fábio Nogueira Demarqui<br />
46<br />
Critérios <strong>de</strong> elegibilida<strong>de</strong> para um município pertencer ao programa<br />
territórios da cidadania<br />
Pedro Gomes Andra<strong>de</strong>; Denise Britz do Nascimento Silva<br />
47<br />
Crianças que nunca frequentaram a escola: i<strong>de</strong>ntificação das áreas <strong>de</strong> vulnerabilida<strong>de</strong><br />
socioespacial através <strong>de</strong> geoestatística<br />
Pedro Gomes Andra<strong>de</strong>; Ana Camila Ribeiro Pereira<br />
48<br />
O uso <strong>de</strong> análise envoltória <strong>de</strong> dados para avaliação da eficiência dos estados brasileiros<br />
49<br />
Steven Dutt-Ross; Pedro Gomes Andra<strong>de</strong><br />
Nonlinear regression mo<strong>de</strong>ls un<strong>de</strong>r skew scale mixtures of normal distributions<br />
Clécio da Silva Ferreira; Victor Hugo Lachos<br />
50<br />
Combinação linear wavelet híbrida multiestágios na previsão <strong>de</strong> séries temporais<br />
Luiz Albino Teixeira Júnior; Álvaro Eduardo Faria Júnior;; Ricardo Vela <strong>de</strong> Britto Pereira;<br />
Reinaldo Castro Souza; Edgar Manuel Carreño Franco; Henrique Helfer Hoeltgebaum<br />
51<br />
Estimação robusta <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>lo funcional para i<strong>de</strong>ntificação <strong>de</strong> faltas em linhas<br />
<strong>de</strong> transmissão<br />
Gilmar Rosa; Marcelo Azevedo Costa<br />
52<br />
Análise da estrutura <strong>de</strong> reprovações em um curso <strong>de</strong> estatística utilizando<br />
mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> espaços latentes<br />
Marcos Sousa Goulart; Gustavo da Silva Ferreira<br />
53<br />
Uma extensão assimétrica do mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> Grubbs usando a abordagem Bayesiana<br />
Fábio Rocha da Silva; Lour<strong>de</strong>s Coral Contreras Montenegro<br />
54<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
XIV Escola <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> Regressão<br />
36<br />
2 a 5 <strong>de</strong> Março <strong>de</strong> 2015 - Centro <strong>de</strong> convenções - UNICAMP<br />
Sessão Pôster 2 (PO2) Quarta-feira 04/03/2015 - 17:30 às 19:00<br />
Imputação múltipla em mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> regressão logística: fatores associados ao baixo<br />
peso ao nascer no estado do paraná<br />
Marina Gandolfi ; Sérgio Marcussi Gaspechak; Eraldo Schunk Silva; Isol<strong>de</strong> Previ<strong>de</strong>lli<br />
55<br />
Mo<strong>de</strong>lo misto aplicado ao estudo <strong>de</strong> dados longitudinais <strong>de</strong> glicemia em um único rato<br />
Omar C. N. Pereira; Emerson Barili; Rosângela G. Santana; Isol<strong>de</strong> Previ<strong>de</strong>lli<br />
56<br />
Intervalos <strong>de</strong> confiança da razão <strong>de</strong> verossimilhanças modificada<br />
Sérgio Marcussi Gaspechak; Isol<strong>de</strong> Previ<strong>de</strong>lli<br />
57<br />
Análise <strong>de</strong> Sobrevida em Pacientes com Esclerose Lateral Amiotrófica<br />
Natalie Henriques Martins; Reinaldo Gomes Morais;<br />
Cosme Marcelo Furtado Passos da Silva; Marli Pernes da Silva Loureiro<br />
58<br />
Avaliação <strong>de</strong> teste <strong>de</strong> Mauchly<br />
Juliana Faria <strong>de</strong> Carvalho, Isol<strong>de</strong> Previ<strong>de</strong>lli, Rosangela Santana<br />
59<br />
Um mo<strong>de</strong>lo <strong>de</strong> sobrevivência <strong>de</strong> factores <strong>de</strong> risco latentes e mecanismos<br />
<strong>de</strong> ativação latentes<br />
José Julio Flores Delgado; Vicente Garibay Cancho<br />
60<br />
Pessoas com <strong>de</strong>ficiência: questão <strong>de</strong> risco sob aplicação <strong>de</strong> regressão logística<br />
politômica e sob visão epi<strong>de</strong>miológica<br />
Paulo Tra<strong>de</strong>u Meira Silva <strong>de</strong> Oliveira<br />
61<br />
Imputação <strong>de</strong> dados faltantes em séries temporais: Comparação <strong>de</strong> mo<strong>de</strong>los estruturais<br />
e mo<strong>de</strong>los <strong>de</strong> imputações múltiplas <strong>de</strong> dados (Amelia II)<br />
Fernanda Lang Schumacher; Eniuce Menezes <strong>de</strong> Souza<br />
62<br />
: emrxiv@gmail.com<br />
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015
Desenhado por Luis Benites Sánchez e Rocí Paola Maehara: lbenitesanchez@gmail.com<br />
XIV<br />
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DE REGRESSÃO<br />
ABE<br />
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