TIDEN-GAR-sept21_es

TIDEN GÅR
årgang 1
utgave #1
september 2021
Gjensidiges fremtidsscenarier
-En gjennomgang av siste hendelser
Månendens artikkel
"The rise of the digital insurance markedtplace"
Månedens aktør
"SwizzRe og investering i integrert forsikring"
Går vi mot en mer fragmentert
verdikjede?

Innhold
SCENARIENE
5 Hvor viktige de ulike scenarier
er for Gjensidiges forretning
BEVEGELSE
6 Hvordan scenariene har
beveget seg i det siste mnd
VIKTIGSTE Å FØLGE MED PÅ
10 Hva konkret som er det
viktigste å følge med på
MÅNEDENS ARTIKKEL
14 The rise of the digital insurance
marketplace
MÅNEDENS AKTØR
18 Swiss Re og investering i
integrert forsikring
NESTE NUMMER
22 hva sker i oktober?
TIDEN GÅR

På lederplass
INFOMAG
TIDEN GÅR er et magasin utarbeidet
av Strategi og Konserninnovasjon i
Gjensidige. TIDEN GÅR er en
kontinuerlig oppdatering på hva som
skjer rundt oss. Ved å gå systematisk
gjennom ulike kilder forsøker TIDEN
GÅR å gi et bilde på hva våre
omgivelser er opptatt av i øyeblikket,
men som kanskje vil ha store
konsekvenser på lang sikt. TIDEN
GÅR fokuserer på det som er relevant
for våre scenarier og vil sortere
innsikten basert på dette.
Henvendelser og sysnpunkter på
innhold, layout og kommentarer kan
sendes til: sae@gjensidige.no
Velkommen til
TIDEN GÅR
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Im
TIDEN GÅR

Hva kan vi vente oss?
Gjensidiges 4 scenarioer
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Gjensidiges 4
sceanrioer for 2030
“Gjensidiges 4 scenarioer er utviklet sammen med våre
fremtste interne eksperter, Innovasjonsrådet, KL og
eksterne eskperter.”
Hva kan vi vente oss?
Basert på input fra en AI-modell, våre
fremste interne eksperter samt eksterne
eksperter (fra ulike konsulentselskap),
har Innovasjonsrådet og KL utviklet
konsernets scenarier for 2030.
Konklusjonen er at det er 2 forhold vi er
grunnleggende usikre på, men som
uansett vil ha enorme konsekvenser for
vår forretning.
Og den andre er hvordan vår
lønnsomme verdikjeden for
forsikring utvikler seg kommende
10 år.
Blir den angrepet av bedrifter med
sterkere og hyppigere kunderelasjoner,
kommer myndighetene til å ønske mer
konkurranse, vil kunder ønske mer alt i
ett abonnement enn å plukke
komponenter selv osv?
Den ene er hvordan selskapers evne
til å nyttiggjøre seg dynamiske data
og prediksjonsmodeller fremover
blir.
Ønsker kunder dette, tillater
myndighetene det, får man det til teknisk,
vil man ønske å gjøre de nødvendige
investeringer?
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Kombinasjonen av disse dimensjonene, resulteter i fire
aktuelle scenarier illustrert i figueren ovenfor.
Lorem Ipsum

"Divisjonsledelsen og eksterne eksperter er
enige"
Gjensidige vurderer "Business as
Usual" som viktigst
Alle divisjonene i Gjensidige har nå hatt
en gjennomgang av konsernets 4
scenarier og har i disse møtene selv
kommet med egne tanker om hva som vil
være aktuelt om 10 år. I tillegg er våre
strategiske samarbeidspartnere blant
konsulentene intervjuet om det samme.
Og det er overraskende stor enighet!
Økosystemer kommer til å bli helt
avgjørende om 10 år. Divisjonslederne
mener i noe større grad at “Business As
Usual” vil være viktig mens
konsulentene vurderer “Spesialistene
kommer” som et mer aktuelt scenario.
Må bygge beredskap for alle 4
sceanrioer
Det er forskjeller mellom de ulike
ledergrupper, men alle er enige om at “En
plass i førersetet” er viktig. Størst
uenighet er det om viktigheten av
“Business as Usual”.
Alle scenariene vil imdlertid slå til og det
er grunn til å bygge beredskap. Her er det
viktig å se mer detaljert etter forskjeller
mellom de ulike behovsområder og
segmenter. Eksempevis mener alle at
bilprodusentene vil etablere helt nye
økosystemer der de tar ansvar for
bilholdet og der forsikring vil være
underordnet.
TIDEN GÅR

AI-modell for Scenarioene
Vi har nå etablert en modell for å følge
med det som skjer rundt oss i sanntid
basert på kunstig intelligens. Tusenvis av
kilder gjennomgås fortløpende og vi
klarer å fange det som er relevant for
forsikringsmarkedet.
Da kan man gå fra ustrukturert tekst til
kvantifiserbare data/indikatorer. Og da
kan man si om det enkelte scenarie blir
mer eller mindre aktuelt med tilhørende
forklaring. Under ser dere indikatorene
som benyttes:
Vi bruker AI for å strukturere og tolke
komplekse og mangfoldige data gjennom
såkalt tekst-analyse. I tekstanalysen
klarer man å strukturere tekst slik at man
forstår og kan klassifisere det som blir
sagt.
AI-modellen er bygget opp med 10 stk
indikatorer som følger utviklingen
langt de 2 ulike aksene.
TIDEN GÅR

"Vår nye AI-modell hevder at fremdeles er scenariene 1
og 2, der forsikring mister kontroll over verdikjeden,
viktigst."
Scenariene lages av 10 algoritmer, 5 for
hver dimensjon. Disse vekter like tungt og
påvirkes ved en sentimentanalyse
(klassifisering av om det styrker eller
svekker indikatoren).
I dag er scenarie 1 og 2 størst – det betyr
at utsagnene i sum er mer positive til at
vår verdikjede ikke blir som i dag, men at
den fragmenteres. Dvs at det kommer inn
aktører som tar fra forsikringsselskapene
kundefront og som tilbyr forsikring som
en (underordnet) del av sitt tilbud.
Da vi startet innsamlingen av data (litt
over ett år siden) var scenariene 1 og 2
enda større i forhold til 3 og 4.
Det betyr at det har vært hendelser som
øker sannsynligheten for scenarie 3 og 4,
at forsikring vil være helt sentralt.
Forklaringen finner vi i algoritmen som
beskriver nye selskaper som vil tilby
forsikring. Her har det blitt langt færre
hendelser som antyder dette. Diskusjonen
om helt nye forsikringstilbydere har
stilnet kraftig.Dette kan enten være nye
forsikringsselskap, selgere av en viss type
forsikring eller eksisterende selskap,
gjerne behovsspesialister som tilbyr
forsikring som en del av tilbudet.
TIDEN GÅR

AI-modellen kort forklart
Gnosis-vurderingene
Figuren er en skjermdump fra vår AImodell
Gnosis og viser hvor stort det
enkelte scenarie blir basert på om man
snakker scenariet opp eller ned.
Akseindikatorene
Vi bruker her globale datakilder, men vil
senere kunne bryte ned på Europa og
også Skandinavia.
Scenariene lages av 10 algoritmer, 5 for
hver dimensjon. Disse vekter like tungt
og påvirkes ved en sentimentanalyse
(klassifisering av om det styrker eller
svekker indikatoren).
Utviklingen i sceanrioene
Denne figuren viser utvikling av det
enkelte scenariet over tid, fra mai i år og
frem til i dag. 4 algoritmer/indikatorer
påvirker vertikalt og 4 horisontalt.
Det er en indikator på X-aksen
(Structure of the insurance industry)
som slår ut spesielt: Indikator 4 –
«Traction of new entrants in insurance»
Px

Hva må vi følge med på?
Konkrete hendelser i markedet
TIDEN GÅR

Oversikten viserser utvalgte overskrifter fra September-versjonen til onlinemediene
Finanswatch, Shifter, Digital insurance, Insurtechnews og CB insights.
Innerst mot aksene er det trukket ut viktigste temaer og aktører.
En plass i førersetet
- Allianser/Tryg: tror på stor vekst i forsikring på helse
og omsorg
- Allianser/Tryg: lancerer privat tænketank for at
redde fremtidens velfærd. "Vi skal tænke den danske
model 2.0"
- Reguleringer/Danmark: Fra erstatninger til
forebyggelse: Forsikringsbranchen satser på ret til selv
at levere fremtidigt hovedprodukt
- Innovasjon/Fremtind: Leder for innovasjon Svein
Skovly snakker om "rethinking innovation"
Business as Usual
-Digitalisering/Storebrand: Ingen tvil om at
digitalisering endrer bransjen
-Digitalisering/Frende: – Vi står ikke overfor noen
dramatisk endring av det norske markedet
-If Forsikring hever startbonusen for unge sjåfører
-Digitalisering/United by the digital claim to realize
innovative ideas and projects
-Bærekraft/Fremtind hever grensen for kondemnering
til 80%
-Bærekraft/Fremtind: Nye former for mobilitet er mer
bærekraftig. Eller?
-Bærekraft/Andelen brukte deler i bilreparasjoner må
opp Bærekraft/Fremtind: Strålende sommer - eller?
Helt nye økosystemer
-Embedded/Swiss Re: on a mission to embed
insurance in daily activities
-Embedded insurance & Finance: The trend that
people are “constantly talking about”
- Embedded/Amazon’s new accelerator for small
business insurance
-Telematics/Ford Motor Company teams up with
LexisNexis Risk Solutions
-Autonome kjøretøy/Tesla starts judging owners it
charged $10,000 for self-driving
Spesialistene kommer
- Plattform/MicroSavings: Off-the-shelf white labelled
micro-savings solution for insurers
- Things for insurers to consider as they invest in
insurtech Small business insurer customer satisfaction
continues to decline
- Insurtech Foxquilt Raises $8M to Expand Small
Business Offering in U.S. and Canada
TIDEN GÅR

Ciceros insuretech september-fokus
Venstre side av Scenarioene
På venstre side av sceanrioeaksen, ser vi
forsikringsaktører som forsøker å øke
relevansen for kunder.
Oppe ved å anvende nye kilder som kan
brukes til mer rettferdig/korrekt prising
og skadeforebygging.
Nede er det selskaper som digitaliserer
for å skape et raskere, rimeligere og mer
relevant tilbud. Bak star ofte store
forsikringsselskap som deleiere.
Høyre side av Scenarioene
På høyre ser vi nye aktører som kommer
med vesentlig (ofte disruptive) fornyelse i
hele eller deler av verdikjeden.
Oppe er det flere tilbydere av embedded
insurance med tunge aktører I ryggen.
Disse ønsker å spille en rolle I
fremvoksende økosystemer.
Nede ser v aktører som skal øke
transparens på pris og vilkår og fokuset
på skadeautomatisering.
TIDEN GÅR

Gartners prioritetsindeks for forsikring
In 2021, insurance IT budgets on the whole have
needed to focus on “safe innovation,” where tangible
ROI can be quantified. More speculative technologies
that may have a more transformational impact on
business models, products and services therefore
remain in their infancies and have a longer horizon to
the Plateau of Productivity due to their reduced focus
in 2021. Insurance CIOs will need to balance the
technologies that will support cost, risk and revenue
aims for today with the investment in emerging
technologies that will drive rewards in the long term.
Gartner has identified eight technologies that will have
a transformational impact on the insurance value
chain. Three notable developments concern the
following:
1)
Artificial intelligence: Gartner believes AI is one of the
most transformational sets of technologies on this
Hype Cycle. AI-enabled technologies have equal
applicability to support rethink, recalibration and
reimagination of existing business models alongside
the insights to aid the creation of new business models,
products and services.
2)
Blockchain: The lack of fruition from the blockchain
hype has led to this technology starting the descent
toward the Trough of Disillusionment.
For game-changing benefits to the insurance sector,
many of the proposed applications require business
cooperation across a number of disparate institutions
with differing degrees of technology maturity. The
transformational potential still remains.
3)
Customer and Societal Ecosystems: This is a new
addition to the Hype Cycle that identifies the
developing connections and data flows between
machines, sensors and associated technologies that will
give rise to business ecosystems. It is through this
network of partnerships, data and technology that new
business models and markets will develop. These
business ecosystems will see insurance as a by-product
or hidden in a wider service model focused on the
desires and business needs of end customers.
4)
In addition, a further 11 technologies will have a high
impact on insurance. These technologies provide
connectivity to the outside world, support real-time
operations, and connect insurance into people’s lives
through customer engagement or via IoT devices.
TIDEN GÅR

Månedens artikkel
The rise of the digital insurance marketplace
Hvorfor er dette
måendens artikkel:
[sett inn tekst]
L
ast
May marked the 229th anniversary of
the Buttonwood Agreement, which
organized securities trading in New York,
laying the groundwork for what would
become the New York Stock Exchange.
Its beginnings were modest; the 24 Buttonwood signatories
traded mainly government bonds and commodities, and
they competed fiercely with regional exchanges to bring the
benefits of a structured marketplace—liquidity, price
transparency and innovation—to businesses and
individuals. The introduction of the telegraph, the
breakthrough technology of the era, made these new
marketplaces more efficient, drawing in more participants
and helping to support the nation’s economic growth.
A similar process is underway in insurance. Today, a digital
insurance marketplace is emerging, fueled by technological
advances and rising interest among insurance customers
and intermediaries for faster, cheaper and more adaptable
ways to meet their risk-management needs.
Simply put, an insurance marketplace is a digital ecosystem
that enables carriers, customers, agents, brokers and even
non-insurance participants to seamlessly connect with each
other, thereby transforming the way insurance products
are distributed and purchased. The marketplace can create
economic benefits for participants, spark innovation and
improve price transparency, just as the formation of
securities markets did more than two centuries ago.
For insurance carriers, a marketplace allows them to gain
access to a larger customer base through a digital
distribution channel.
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They can also collaborate easily with
other partners, such as mortgage
providers or travel companies, to offer a
bundled product more efficiently than
they can today. In addition, the data
carriers gather by interacting in the
marketplace can provide insights into
potential new product offerings and help
them improve the customer experience.
A digital marketplace envisions a new role
for insurance carriers, one that can exist
alongside their traditional functions.
Carriers have long played a central role in
the insurance ecosystem by developing
distribution channels,
managing captive agents and brokers and
coordinating complementary service
providers – a process that can be complex
and costly to operate. But in a
marketplace, the carrier is a participant,
working alongside other organizations to
provide a seamless, one-stop experience
for customers.
Many carriers are building the foundation
for this new role through their digital
investments. The pandemic showed
insurance carriers how important
technology was in enabling the shift to
remote work environments while staying
connected with distributors and
clients. Deloitte’s 2021 survey of
insurance executives
“Consumers can also benefit from a digital insurance marketplace. It can
create greater awareness about their need for insurance protection and
give them access to a wider range of products.”
found that 95% were already accelerating
or looking to speed up their digital
transformation. Among the priorities for
investment they cited were ‘data
analytics’ and ‘digital channels,’ two areas
that are important for developing an
insurance marketplace.
With advanced analytics, for example,
insurers can reconcile, combine and
analyze data from multiple sources to
generate real-time insights. The goal is to
speed up underwriting and improve
customer experience. For example,
Policygenius, an independent insurance
broker, uses analytics on past medical
and prescription data to offer accelerated
term life products without a medical
exam for eligible applicants.
Consumers can also benefit from a digital
insurance marketplace. It can create
greater awareness about their need for
insurance protection and give them
access to a wider range of products,
including risk mitigation and assetprotection
services that can be difficult to
acquire today. Most of all, it can provide a
vastly improved buying experience, with
quote comparisons across carriers and a
fast and simple purchase process. In this
way, insurance starts to look a lot like the
other services consumers have become
accustomed to buying online.
Consumers seem open to new types of
insurance products and alternative ways
to purchase them. Another recent
Deloitte survey found that while
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"Consumers seem open to new types of insurance
products and alternative ways to purchase them."
U.S. auto insurance consumers were very
comfortable with traditional coverage
options, they also wanted greater control
and flexibility. For example, ‘invisible
coverage,’ in which insurance is included
as part of a car purchase or lease
agreement, generated interest, mainly
among younger consumers in the survey.
Online insurance purchases have become
popular, too. Twenty percent of all
respondents to Deloitte’s survey
expressed interest in buying auto
insurance from an online retailer such as
Amazon, allowing them to “buy insurance
quickly from a full range of insurers.”
Brokers and independent agents, key
players in the insurance industry,
have much to gain from insurance
marketplaces, too. They can access carrier
appointments that previously were out of
reach because of premium or volume
requirements, opening a more robust
pipeline of sales leads.
Agents can use the marketplace to get
access to a greater number of carriers.
And they can combine products from
different carriers to create a solution for
their clients – a capability that is very
difficult to find today. They can also
access a range of digital tools that can
improve customer relationship
management and help their business
flourish by streamlining processes,
reducing quote-to-bind times and
speeding renewals.
TIDEN GÅR

who find them useful. And like an app
store, rapid customer feedback will
produce updates with new features.
These compelling benefits for participants
suggest the digital insurance marketplace
is likely to grow in the years ahead.
Indeed, investors have begun to commit
capital to the sector, and several
insurtechs are working hard to develop
their offerings. Bolttech, an insurtech that
has developed a cloud-based digital
insurance marketplace, recently
announced completion of a new funding
round that valued the company at more
than $1 billion. Bolttech operates in 26
countries, and its insurance marketplace
is the largest in the world, transacting $5
billion in premiums and providing access
to 150 insurance providers.
Perhaps the most exciting aspect of an
insurance marketplace is its ability to
bring non-insurance participants into the
value equation. These are companies that
provide ancillary services to insurance
buyers, such as DocuSign to manage
electronic agreements, or ADT to provide
home security. But they can also be
companies that want to access the
marketplace to package an insurance
policy with their product, such as an
equipment manufacturer offering a
service warranty or a travel company
providing trip insurance.
The marketplace can also support a wide
variety of standalone companies offering
data analytic services on insurance, just
as Morningstar, Bloomberg and FactSet
do with financial data.
In fact, this aspect of the marketplace is
much like a smartphone app store. Over
time, there could be hundreds of
insurance apps to address various
services, all available to participants
Bolttech is far from alone, however.
Insureon, an independent marketplace
for online delivery of insurance for smalland
medium-sized businesses, has served
more than 350,000 customers. Bold
Penguin, a digital commercial
marketplace that connects businesses,
agents and carriers, has handled more
than 2 million quotes since its launch in
2016.
An insurance marketplace puts the
customer at the center, with personalized
products and services based on datadriven
insights. Consumers today expect
continuous innovation in many of the
products and services they buy, and
insurance is no exception.
Insurance carriers, brokers and agents
should consider how they can get
involved with insurance marketplaces as
part of their distribution and product
development strategy. Those
organizations that move quickly to
participate in this new arena can capture
the opportunity for growth in market
share, revenue and profitability. The
future is happening fast.
TIDEN GÅR

Månedens aktør
SwissRE og integrert
forsikring
S
wiss
Re and Daimler launch new company Movinx to transform
automotive and mobility insurance business.
"Insurance needs to evolve to deal with these developments
and the challenges they create for pricing and claims
handling."
Movinx is a 50/50 joint venture of Swiss Re and Daimler Insurance Services.
Partners aim to transform and innovate automotive and mobility insurance with
fully digital business model and focus on flexible and customer-centric products.
Movinx is located in Berlin and set up as insurance intermediary and service
provider.
Swiss Re and Daimler Insurance Services have entered into a strategic partnership
for automotive and mobility insurance and launched a new company called Movinx.
Both shareholders of the 50/50 joint venture will leverage their complementary
expertise to establish a new business model. The aim is to develop fully digital
automotive and mobility insurance products that both fulfill changing customer
needs and offer best-in-class service quality. Movinx has received all necessary
competition clearances.
Pravina Ladva, Swiss Re’s Digital Transformation Officer, said: ”We believe that
partnering with Daimler Insurance Services and establishing Movinx will take us to
the next level in innovating mobility insurance. Our joint long-term ambition is to
unlock an ecosystem interplay where insurance supports the introduction of new
technologies such as advanced driving assistance systems and autonomous cars as
well as new business models in the mobility area.”
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Ingo Telschow, CEO Daimler Insurance
Services, said:
”By joining forces with Swiss Re we can
lead transformation in an evolving
market environment and advance
insurance business. We will establish a
new business model as well as co-create
and co-own an insurance platform. This
platform enables easy and efficient
insurance purchase and customer-centric
services by using real time data.
Furthermore, we as Daimler Insurance
Services are going deeper into the value
chain of insurance business, having more
influence on product development and
pricing.”
The automotive industry and the motor
insurance sector are undergoing a
significant transformation. Rapid
developments are taking place on the
technological side, such as e-mobility and
automated driving or on business model
side with the shift from ownership to
usage. Insurance needs to evolve to deal
with these developments and the
challenges they create for pricing and
claims handling.
Joint vision: flexible and fully digital
automotive and mobility insurance
products.
With the aim of creating a new business
model, Movinx will act as a Managing
General Agent (MGA). It enables an
embedded mobility and insurance
customer journey –
TIDEN GÅR

Cooperations with further partners
possible.
The joint venture will be open for
cooperations with other stakeholders
such as car manufacturers or, more
generally, mobility service providers.
Future partners will benefit from our coowned
insurance MGA and be able to
offer white-labeled solutions globally.
Instead of having to deal with many
insurers, the manufacturer has one
sparring partner, Movinx, across
countries.
making insurance an integrated part of
the vehicle purchase. Instead of today’s
rather short-term oriented partnerships
between car manufacturers and various
insurers, the focus is on a joint
development journey to offer flexible and
fully digital products. Movinx enables the
introduction of new insurance
propositions efficiently across a range of
markets, e.g. with the underlying
technology platform.
Movinx will then partner with locally
licensed insurers to deliver its solutions to
the end-customers and cover insurance
risk. Insurers and other stakeholders can
connect to the IT platform and profit
from centralised operations and
automated processes supported by a
combination of machine- and deeplearning
technologies. By connecting to
the MGA's platform, insurers benefit
from not having to build tailored and
quickly changing insurance programs.
TIDEN GÅR

Neste nummer
Oktober 2022
Hva har skjedd siden sist?
Nye produkter på markedet?
Har noen av konkurrentene lansert nye
produkter som påvirker scenarioene?
Har scenarioene beveget seg noe?
Hva sier AI-modellen om dens iste mnd
utvikling.
Månedens aktør
Utvalgt aktør som representerer
bevegelsene i markedet denne
måneden
Månedens artikkel
Aktuelt dypdypp i et relevant tema for
bevegelsene denne måneden
Px