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(NOC’s) in OPEC countries. Some countries, like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are
capable of doing these. Other countries have problems to invest, since they do not let
in foreign capital or spend their income on other, politically driven, issues like local
subsidies or weapons.
Moreover, in many (potential) production countries local or general opposition exists
against the production of coal, oil, gas and uranium, because insufficient care is
taken of the interest and health of the inhabitants.
On the long term both the availability and use of the energy resources will become a
real problem, with respect to the effect on sustainability.
Geopolitical relations and responses
As a consequence of the developing tension between demand and supply the role of
geopolitical considerations will increase. One of the resulting effects will be that
governments of consumer countries will explicitly use the supply certainty of energy
as an aim in their energy policy, where this was left to the market in the recent past.
Both with respect to the certainty of energy supply and sustainability it does not seem
obvious anymore that market forces alone will yield the desired situation.
Governmental steering is required.
Supply, in terms of available and producible reserves of coal, oil, gas and uranium, is
especially determined by the way in which the industry and governments will be able
to create a balanced value chain. The interaction between governments and market
actors is fundamental for the future supply of energy carriers.
Beside a physical component, including adequate production, transport and buffer
capacity, the chain requires a coherent institutional component, in which the
financial-economic mix is taken care of in such a way that minimal (geo)political and
social tensions will arise, whereas sufficient certainty exist to make the necessary
investments.
For the energy policy of North West European governments this means that it is
important to take measures which are effective in stimulating the investment climate
on the shorter term and on an international scale. Basic elements are the mining and
tax regimes, market regulations and market forces policy, environmental and other
licenses and freedom of capital movement. In the long run price effects, related to
shortages and dependence effects will automatically become stronger driving forces.
To mould the market forces on the middle long term in the desired direction, mondial
and local environmental environmental effects and dependence relationships must
be made visible in the costs and prices of energy. An important conclusion is that the
expected market developments must be assessed within the correct time frame for
an adequate policy reaction.
Sustainability as a challenge
An aspect not to be neglected is that the extraction of the energy carriers has
consequences for the environment and for the people living in the vicinity of the
extraction locations. Disadvantageous impacts for example are the pollution of the
local environment, emission with a negative health impact for the local people, but
sometimes also bad working conditions and the exhaustion of the local resources.
Sustainable development starts with the search for a long term balance between the
environment, economy and solidarity with future generations. Policy thinking that
links sustainability to the extraction of coal, oil, gas and uranium, does require a
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