Issue 342 - 27/03/2020

28 27/03/2020 NEWS LITERATURE POLITICS FASHION ART & CULTURE KIDS RELIGION FILMS
www.samajweekly.com
India may see 25 crore COVID-19
cases in next 3 months: Report
New Delhi : In what could spell real
trouble for the country in the next three
months, a new report from prestigious
Johns Hopkins University and the
Centre for Disease Dynamics,
Economics & Policy (CDDEP) has predicted
that 21-day lockdown may be
ineffective to stop the COVID-19 peak
arriving in April-May-June -- infecting
over 12 crore Indians in an optimistic
(low) scenario. In a High scenario (trajectory
with current lockdowns but
insufficient physical distancing or compliance),
the total number of cases
(asymptomatic, hospitalized and symptomatic)
can even touch a massive figure
of 25 crore. In the most likely
(Medium) scenario with moderate to
full compliance but no change in virulence
or temperature/humidity sensitivity,
the numbers of total cases can swell
up to 18 crore. The optimistic (low) scenario
constitutes decreased virulence
and temperature/humidity sensitivity.
To reach these numbers, Johns
Hopkins and CDDEP -- a public health
research organisation -- used IndiaSIM,
a well-validated agent-based model of
the Indian population which has been
published widely over many years and
has been used for government decisionmaking.
According to the report, hospitalised
cases can reach up to 25 lakh
people in the High scenario, 17-18 lakh
people in Medium scenario and 13 lakh
people in Low scenario.
"Ventilator demand will be 1 million.
Current availability in India is estimated
to be between 30,000 and 50,000 ventilators,"
said the joint report.
"Mortality in healthcare workers
could further increase deaths in the general
population. Healthcare workers
need personal protective equipment
(masks and gowns) to protect themselves.
Without them they get sick further
straining the capacity of the healthcare
system to respond," the report
warned. The number of coronavirus
cases climbed to 649 in India on
Thursday and the death toll hit 13, with
one death reported each from Gujarat,
Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh,
Coronavirus slams Russia, Africa,
India as global cases reach 5 lakh
New Delhi : The new coronavirus
which has infected close
to 5 lakh people, including over
22,000 deaths globally, is now
looking to wreak havoc in three
countries it has spared so far –
India, Russia and South Africa.
Russia which seemed virtually
untouched to date – with just
seven confirmed infections as
recently as March 10 – reported
840 infections on Thursday
(about two-thirds of them in the
Moscow region), according to
data from Johns Hopkins
University's Coronavirus
Resource Center.
The African continent that
seemed to have dodged the bullet
till now reported 72 deaths as
confirmed positives cases surpassed
2,746 as of Thursday.
India – sitting on a COVID-
19 ‘time bomb' – reported close
to 700 positive cases, with 16
deaths.
The highly coronavirusaffected
African countries
include South Africa with 709,
Egypt with 456 cases, Algeria
according to the Health Ministry.
But March is the month when peak is
yet to even begin, according to the
report. According to the report, delays
in testing are seriously reducing the
ability of the population to protect itself.
"This is the most important way in
which we can contain the epidemic. An
increase in the official number of
detected cases in the short term could
encourage the population to take distancing
more seriously and will reduce
panic compared to a big spike later," the
findings showed. "Border closures at
with 302 cases and Morocco
with 225 cases as of Thursday
morning, according to the Africa
CDC. The number of coronavirus
cases in the northern
region of Lombardy, which
includes Milan, increased by
nearly 2,500 on Thursday,
regional Governor Attilio
Fontana was quoted as saying.
"Today's numbers are not
good, unfortunately. There has
been a steeper increase compared
with previous days,"
Fontana told reporters.
The number of cases in the
region, which has borne the
brunt of Italy's contagion,
increased by some 1,643 to
roughly 32,346, media reports
said.
The US death toll from
COVID-19 has hit 1,000. More
than 37,000 people have tested
positive for coronavirus in New
York alone.
For the first time in a week,
coronavirus deaths in Spain
slowed down. Spain recorded
655 deaths in the past 24 hours,
bringing the total to 4,089,
according to the health ministry
said on Thursday.
The number of confirmed
cases in Spain stood at 56,188.
this stage have little to no impact and
add further economic disruption and
panic. While international transmission
was important in the first stage, domestic
transmission is now far more relevant,"
it warned. A national lockdown,
said the report, is not productive and
could cause serious economic damage,
increase hunger and reduce the population
resilience for handling the infection
peak. "Some states may see transmission
increase only after another 2 weeks
and lockdowns should be optimized for
when they could maximize the effect on
the epidemic but minimize economic
damage," said Johns Hopkins-CDDEP
report. State-level lockdowns in the
most affected states could change the
trajectory of the epidemic and should
commence immediately. Any delay
allows for more secondary cases to
emerge.
Lockdowns should be guided by testing
and serological survey data and
should be planned on a rolling basis, the
report mentioned, adding that preparedness
for case load should be the highest
priority at this time. "Temperature and
humidity increases should help us in
reducing case load. Although the evidence
is limited, it is plausible," the
report mentioned. Evidence from China
indicates that higher temperature and
humidity are likely to lower the transmission
rates but it is unclear "how this
will translate to the India context".
India "should be prepared for multiple
peaks in the model and should be
prepared for more cases and deaths later
in the year". In India, initial infections
likely first arrived in early February,
according to the report. People who will
show symptoms next week are already
infected and incubating the virus. Some
of these will transmit before they are
symptomatic. A large percentage of
cases are mild, but for older individuals,
the mortality rate is strikingly higher.
"Children are less likely to be infected
and also less likely to be hospitalized
than adults. Illness is less likely to be
severe in children than in adults," the
report noted.