Working Paper of Public Health Volume 2012 - Azienda Ospedaliera ...

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Azienda Ospedaliera Nazionale“SS. Antonio e Biagio e Cesare Arrigo”Working Paper of Public Healthnr. 7/20124. ResultTable 4 shows the arithmetic mean, std. deviation and confirms the normality of thedistribution of variables. Other main results are in table 5-7.Table 4. Descriptive StatisticsMeanStd.Deviation Skewness KurtosisLN BREAST C. (ASR) 3.69 0.61 -0.35 -0.28LN GDP PPP 8.88 1.11 -0.44 -0.65LN CT 1.29 0.18 -0.84 0.95Note: ASR is the incidence of breast cancer based on Agestandardizedrate (ASW); GDP (Gross Domestic Product), CT(Computed Tomography)Table 5. CorrelationsLN GDP PPPLN BREAST C.(ASR)LN CTLN GDP PPPPearson Correlation 1 .695 ** .645 **Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000LN BREAST C. Pearson Correlation 1 .993 **(ASR) Sig. (2-tailed) .000LN CTPearson Correlation 1Sig. (2-tailed)Note: ASR is the incidence of breast cancer based on Age-standardized rate (ASW);GDP (Gross Domestic Product), CT (Computed Tomography) ** Correlation issignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).Control VariablesLN CTTable 6. Partial CorrelationLNBREASTLN GDP PPP C. (ASR)LN GDP PPP 1.000 .603Significance (2-tailed) . .000Note: ASR is the incidence of breast cancer based on Agestandardizedrate (ASW); GDP (Gross Domestic Product), CT(Computed Tomography).Table 7. Parametric estimates, OLS results:incidence of breast cancer on GDP per capita and CT –Log-linear modelEstimated relationship A R 2 Adj F Sig.LN BREAST C. (ASR) i = 0.94*** +0.05LNGDP i *** +3.23LNCT i *** 0.99 2714.48 0.00(0.07) (0.01) (0.06) S=0.06Predictors: (Constant), LN GDP-PPP, LN CTA Definitions: The dependent variable is the Incidence of breast cancer based on Age-standardized rate (ASW)-2008. The explanatory variables are Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by purchasing power parity - PPP(current international $) 1994-2000 period (arithmetic mean); Medical equipment is Computed Tomography -Total density per 1 000 000 population-2008. The standard errors of the constant and regression coefficients aregiven in parentheses. R 2 Adj is the coefficient of determination adjusted, below it there is S the standard error of10
Azienda Ospedaliera Nazionale“SS. Antonio e Biagio e Cesare Arrigo”Working Paper of Public Healthnr. 7/2012the estimate; to the right, F is the ratio of the variance explained by the model to the unexplained variance, andits Sig. =significance. *** The parameter is significant at 1 percent.The first thing to be said about these results is that there is a high correlation among variables(higher than 64%), significant at the 0.01 level (tab. 5). In addition, if the relationshipbetween incidence of breast cancer and GDP per capita is analyzed by partial correlation (tab.6), controlling -ceteris paribus- the number of computed tomography across countries,r breast cancer, GDP CT =60.3% (sign.0.00). Table 7 shows the estimated Log-linear model thatexplains more than 90% variance in the data. The parametric estimates of the model areunbiased and the significance of coefficients and the explanatory power of the equation areexcellent. In particular, the estimated relationship of multiple regression shows an expectedincidence of breast cancer increase of approximately 0.05% for a GDP increase of 1%(ceteris paribus CT) and an expected incidence of breast cancer increase of approximately3.23% for a CT increase of 1% (ceteris paribus GDP). Appendix shows the standardizedresidual plots (Histogram in Figure 1A, Normal probability plot in Figure 2A).In order to apply the ANOVA, we calculate the descriptive statistics for the two sets. Table 8shows as average incidence of breast cancer based on Age-standardized rate (ASW) clearlyincreases across richer countries of temperate zone that have also higher latitude and bettersocio-economic-environmental locations that spur fruitful patterns of economic growth.Table 8. Descriptive statistics of variables across countries of non temperate and temperate zone.ZoneNONTemperateZoneTemperateZoneMeanStd.Statistic Std. Error DeviationSkewness KurtosisGDP 1994 2000 Per capita 4030.77 774.47 3285.81 0.67 -1.28Population 28266166.67 6802120.10 28858951.50 1.32 0.89ASR W 2008 24.19 1.64 6.94 -0.44 0.49Cumulative risk breast cancer 2008 2.58 0.18 0.74 -0.54 0.48MRI per million people 0.99 0.31 1.33 1.69 2.37CT per million people 2.28 0.61 2.60 1.04 -0.53Latitude (modulus) 12.01 1.59 6.75 -0.25 -0.91LN MRI (Magnetic Resonance Im.) -0.76 0.39 1.54 -0.27 -0.83LN CT (Computed Tomography) 0.04 0.32 1.38 0.15 -1.58Valid N (listwise) 18GDP 1994 2000 Per capita 15833.63 1957.24 11412.55 1.34 3.08Population 17880852.94 4457212.71 25989792.88 2.71 8.90ASR W 2008 59.38 4.32 25.16 0.19 -0.73Cumulative risk breast cancer 2008 6.36 0.47 2.71 0.15 -0.74MRI per million people 7.57 1.55 9.06 2.60 8.93CT per million people 15.14 3.17 18.51 3.23 13.91Latitude(Modulus) 44.39 1.66 9.65 0.09 -0.71LN MRI (Magnetic Resonance Im.) 1.54 0.20 1.13 -0.25 -0.30LN CT (Computed Tomography) 2.39 0.19 1.03 -0.50 0.48Valid N (listwise) 2811
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