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MADE IN GEORGIA<br />

axali gamowvevis<br />

winaSe gv. 5<br />

gasuli wlis bolos<br />

evrokavSirma<br />

saqarTvelosTan daiwyo<br />

molaparakebebi Rrma da<br />

yovlismomcveli<br />

Tavisufali vaWrobis<br />

(DCFTA) SeTanxmebasTan<br />

dakavSirebiT.<br />

ra gvWirdeba Tavisufali<br />

vaWrobis SeTanxmebis<br />

gasaformeblad gv. 6<br />

ratom moxvdnen smiti, marqsi da<br />

linkolni respublikuri<br />

saavadmyofos urgentul<br />

ganyofilebaSi gigisTan erTad gv. 8<br />

saqarTvelo SesaZloa<br />

azia-evropasa da azia-amerikas<br />

Soris savaWro centri gaxdes gv. 13<br />

saqarTvelos premier-ministris gancxadebiT,<br />

Tavisufal vaWrobaze molaparakebebis<br />

dawyeba umniSvnelovanesi iqneba<br />

saqarTvelos ekonomikuri winsvlisTvis.<br />

finansTa saministros<br />

momsaxurebis saagentoSi gasuli<br />

welis Seajames gv. 14<br />

siRaribe msoflios utevs gv. 16<br />

dRevandeli msoflios<br />

erT-erT umTavres<br />

problemad kvlav<br />

siRaribe da ekonomikuri<br />

uTanasworoba rCeba.<br />

maTTan brZola<br />

mTavrobebs SeuZliaT<br />

qveyanaSi Sesabamisi<br />

sagadasaxado<br />

politikiTa da<br />

miznobrivi fuladi transferebiT.<br />

<strong>sarCevi</strong><br />

mosaxleobis 56%-s<br />

internetiT arasodes<br />

usargeblia gv. 19<br />

socialur qselebSi mwvave<br />

diskusia gamoiwvia evraziis<br />

TanamSromlobis fondis<br />

angariSma, romlis Tanaxmadac,<br />

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 56%-s<br />

internetiT arasodes usargeblia.<br />

EBRD-ma somxeTis da azerbaijanis<br />

ekonomikuri prognozi gaauaresa,<br />

saqarTvelosi ki gazarda gv. 22<br />

rogor vicxovrebT 2012 wels<br />

gv. 26<br />

yvela prognozis<br />

mixedviT, msoflios<br />

sakmaod rTuli weli<br />

daudga. saerTaSoriso<br />

vaWrobis gafarToebam<br />

da komunikaciebis<br />

ganviTarebam samyaro<br />

erT mTlian organizmad<br />

aqcia. dedamiwis<br />

nebismier wertilSi ganviTarebuli<br />

movlenebi adre Tu gvian yvela qveyanaSi<br />

asaxvas hpovebs.<br />

xili gaiafda,<br />

xorcproduqtebi<br />

gaZvirda gv. 28<br />

2012 wlis ianvarSi<br />

2011 wlis ianvarTan<br />

SedarebiT inflaciis<br />

donem saqarTveloSi<br />

0,5 procenti Seadgina.<br />

qarTuli bankebi<br />

uZravi qonebis<br />

saagentoebs<br />

hgavdnen gv. 33<br />

ratom aweven<br />

bankebi saprocento<br />

ganakveTebs gv. 32<br />

dReisaTvis qarTul ekonomikaSi<br />

yvelaze dinamiurad ganviTarebad<br />

sferod kvlav sabanko<br />

seqtori rCeba. eqspertTa<br />

SefasebiT, omis Semdgom Seqmnil<br />

mZime viTarebas bankebma<br />

warmatebiT gaarTves Tavi.

mTavrobam soflis mxardaWeris<br />

programa daamtkica gv. 36<br />

saqarTvelos mTavrobam soflis<br />

mxardaWeris programa daamtkica, romlis<br />

dasafinasebladac 2012 wlis biujetidan<br />

50 milioni lari gamoiyofa.<br />

mosaxleobis 70%-sTvis<br />

samedicino momsaxureba<br />

xelmiuwvdomelia gv. 39<br />

saqarTveloSi jandacvis<br />

sistemis decentralizaciismimarTulebiT<br />

pirveli<br />

nabijebi 2006 wels<br />

gadaidga, ris Sedegadac<br />

samedicino dawesebulebebis<br />

didi nawili<br />

kerZo seqtorSi gadavida,<br />

sadazRvevo kompaniebma<br />

ki, saxelmwifo sadazRvevo<br />

programis farglebSi, biujetidan<br />

masStaburi dafinanseba miiRes.<br />

saidan elodebian finansebs<br />

samSeneblo kompaniebi gv. 42<br />

arareitinguli evropa gv. 45<br />

sakredito reinting-<br />

Si safrangeTi,<br />

avstria da kidev<br />

Svidi qveyana, romel-<br />

Ta Sorisac italia<br />

da safrangeTi<br />

moxvdnen, Standard &<br />

Poor’s (S&P)-is 2012<br />

wlis 13 ianvris SefasebiT, CamoqveiTdnen.<br />

saberZneTis defolti<br />

aucileblad moxdeba gv. 46<br />

azias umuSevroba<br />

emuqreba gv. 48<br />

msoflios wamyvani<br />

ekonomistebi 2012<br />

wels msoflioSi<br />

ekonomikur recesias<br />

prognozireben.<br />

britaneli ekonomistebis<br />

varaudiT,<br />

recesia gardauvalia,<br />

maTi SefasebiT,<br />

momaval wels<br />

evropaSi mosalodnelia<br />

warmoebis<br />

vardna da zrdis<br />

tempebis Semcireba.<br />

BBC-m evrokavSirisgan<br />

milionobiT dolaris miReba<br />

aRiara gv. 51<br />

zrdis bumi<br />

ganadgurebas<br />

udebs saTaves gv. 55<br />

2011 wlis Sedegebis<br />

mixedviT, amerikis<br />

ekonomikam mniSvnelovan<br />

zRvars gadaabija<br />

da qveynis saxelmwifo<br />

valma II msoflio<br />

omis Semdgom pirvelad<br />

gadaaWarba<br />

qveynis mSp-s.<br />

saqarTvelos savaWro<br />

partniori qveynebis ricxvma<br />

istoriul maqsimums miaRwia gv. 61<br />

„saqstatis~ cnobiT, 2011<br />

wlis monacemebiT, saqarTvelos<br />

sagareo savaWro<br />

brunvam (araorganizebuli<br />

vaWrobis<br />

gareSe) 9247 mln aSS<br />

dolari Seadgina, rac<br />

wina wlis maCvenebel-<br />

Tan SedarebiT, 36%-iT<br />

gaizarda.<br />

2012 - ekonomikuri apokalifsi<br />

evropaSi gv. 62<br />

msoflio<br />

ekonomistebis<br />

prognozebiT, 2012<br />

wels globaluri<br />

ekonomika msoflio<br />

finansur krizisTan<br />

mebrZolis rolSi<br />

darCeba<br />

aSS-is<br />

ekonomikis<br />

mTavari<br />

draiveri _<br />

kerZo<br />

moxmareba isev<br />

moqmedebaSia<br />

gv. 68<br />

transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebis zegavlena erovnul<br />

ekonomikaze gv. 73<br />

80-iani wlebis dasawyisidan<br />

turistuli<br />

transnacionaluri kompaniis<br />

zemoqmedebis<br />

ekonomikuri problema<br />

mecnierebis yuradRebis<br />

centrSia.<br />

OPEC — THE DOMINANT PLAYER OF THE<br />

WORLD OIL MARKET P. 80

asuli wlis bolos<br />

evrokavSirma saqarTvelosTan<br />

daiwyo molaparakebebi<br />

Rrma da yovlismomcveli<br />

Tavisufali vaWrobis<br />

(DCFTA) SeTanxmebasTan dakav-<br />

SirebiT. eqpertebis SefasebiT,<br />

procesi daaxloebiT weliwadnaxevars<br />

gastans. Tumca<br />

xelSekrulebis sabolood<br />

gaformebis vadebi, ara<br />

mxolod qarTul mxareze,<br />

aramed evrogaerTianebis<br />

SigniT mimdinare procesebzec<br />

aris damokidebuli.<br />

evrokavSiri-saqarTvelos<br />

biznes-sabWos (EUG-<br />

BC) generaluri mdivani,<br />

konstantine zaldastaniSvili:<br />

`rogorc mogexsenebaT,<br />

saqarTvelos da<br />

evrokavSirs Soris Rrma da<br />

yovlismomcveli Tavisufali<br />

savaWro sivrcis (DCFTA)<br />

SeqmnasTan dakavSirebiT molaparakebebis<br />

gaxsnis Sesaxeb<br />

gadawyvetileba evrokav-<br />

Sirma 2011 wlis 5 dekembers<br />

miiRo. am gadawyvetilebas<br />

win xangrZlivi da daZabuli<br />

mosamzadebeli periodi<br />

uZRvoda. am procesSi, evrokav-<br />

Siris rekomendaciebis Sesasruleblad,<br />

qarTul mxares<br />

didi samuSaos Sesruleba<br />

mouwia iseT sferoebSi rogorebicaa:<br />

konkurenciis<br />

politika; sursaTis uvnebloba;<br />

vaWrobasTan dakavSireuli<br />

teqnikuri barierebi<br />

da inteleqtualuri sakuTreba.<br />

ganxorcielebuli<br />

RonisZiebebidan aRsaniSnavia:<br />

Sesabamisi uflebebiT<br />

mTavari Tema<br />

MADE IN GEORGIA<br />

axali gamowvevis winaSe<br />

maka<br />

RaniaSvili<br />

g<br />

aRWurvili Tavisufali vaWrobisa<br />

da konkurenciis<br />

saagentos, rogorc damoukidebeli<br />

struqturis Camoyalibeba;<br />

konkurenciis Sesaxeb<br />

kanonproeqtis momzadeba;<br />

sursaTis uvneblobis strategiis<br />

da am sferoSi evrokavSiris<br />

kanonmdeblobasTan<br />

daaxloebis programis momzadeba;<br />

`sursaTis uvneblobis<br />

Sesaxeb~ kanonis SeCerebuli<br />

muxlebis amoqmedeba; sursa-<br />

Tis uvneblobis, veterinariisa<br />

da mcenareTa dacvis<br />

saagentos instituciuri gaZliereba;<br />

mrewvelobis prioritetuli<br />

sferoebis teqnikuri<br />

regulirebis evrokav-<br />

Siris kanonmdeblobasTan<br />

daaxloebis samTavrobo programis<br />

damtkiceba; teqnikuri<br />

da mSeneblobis inspeqtirebis<br />

saagentos Camoyalibeba;<br />

inteleqtualur sakuTrebas-<br />

Tan dakavSirebuli Sesabamisi<br />

kanonmdeblobis miReba;<br />

saavtoro uflebebis dacvis<br />

xelSewyobis mizniT, saavtoro<br />

uflebebis dacvis<br />

uwyebaTaSorisi sakoordinacio<br />

sabWos Camoyalibeba da<br />

sxva.<br />

saqarTvelos xelisuflebis<br />

mier es samuSaoebi<br />

rom ar Sesrulebuliyo, molaparakebebis<br />

procesi ar<br />

daiwyeboda. bunebrivia, molaparakebebis<br />

procesSi kidev<br />

bevri Zalisxmeva iqneba<br />

saWiro evrokavSiris vaWrobasTan<br />

dakavSirebuli regulaciebTan<br />

da standartebTan<br />

saqarTvelos kanomnmde-<br />

5

lobisa da struqturebis<br />

daaxloebis mizniT. ase rom,<br />

win daZabuli, magram Zalze<br />

saWiro procesia.<br />

s.e. _ rodisTvis SeiZleba<br />

amoqmeddes es reJimi<br />

da ras moutans es<br />

cvlileba qarTul ekonomikas?<br />

k.z. _ es, albaT, yvelaze<br />

xSiri kiTxvaa, romelic<br />

saqarTvelos da evrokavSirs<br />

Soris Rrma da yovlismomcveli<br />

Tavisufali savaWro<br />

sivrcis Seqmnis Sesaxeb molaparakebebis<br />

gaxsnis Semdeg<br />

ismeba. unda aRiniSnos<br />

rom molaparakebebis vadebi<br />

6 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

formalurad ar aris gansaz-<br />

Rvruli, Sesabamisad, dRes<br />

Zalze Znelia imisi Tqma,<br />

ramden xans gastans es procesi<br />

da rodis amoqmeddeba<br />

evrokavSirTan Tavisufali<br />

vaWrobis reJimi. Tavisufali<br />

savaWro sivrcis Seqmnaze<br />

molaparakebebi martivi da<br />

`evrokavSiris kanonmdeblobasTan daaxloebis mizniT, saqarTvelos<br />

xelisuflebas kidev mravali sakanonmdeblo Tu struqturuli<br />

reforma eqneba gasatarebeli, bizness ki axal biznesgaremosTan<br />

Segueba mouwevs. rogorc ukve vTqviT, am molaparakebebs win ramdenime<br />

wliani intensiuri mosamzadebeli periodi uZRvoda. misi<br />

warmateba ki didwilad iqneba damokidebuli mxareebis politikur<br />

nebaze da maT mzaobaze Seasrulon Sesabamisi valdebulebebi. molaparakabis<br />

procesi garkveuli valdebulebebis aRebas da evropuli<br />

`TamaSis wesebis~ aRiarebas gulisxmobs. ara mgonia, rom molaparakebis<br />

mxareebs es kargad ar hqondeT gaazrebuli<br />

`<br />

Cqari procesi ar iqneba.<br />

evrokavSiris kanonmdeblobasTan<br />

daaxloebis mizniT,<br />

saqarTvelos xelisuflebas<br />

kidev mravali sakanonmdeblo<br />

Tu struqturuli reforma<br />

eqneba gasatarebeli, bizness<br />

ki axal biznesgaremosTan<br />

Segueba mouwevs. rogorc ukve<br />

vTqviT, am molaparakebebs win<br />

ramdenime wliani intensiuri<br />

mosamzadebeli periodi<br />

uZRvoda. misi warmateba ki<br />

didwilad iqneba damokidebuli<br />

mxareebis politikur<br />

nebaze da maT mzaobaze Seasrulon<br />

Sesabamisi valdebulebebi.<br />

molaparakebis<br />

procesi garkveuli<br />

valdebulebebis<br />

aRebas da evropuli<br />

`TamaSis wesebis~<br />

aRiarebas gulisxmobs.<br />

ara mgonia,<br />

rom molaparakebis<br />

mxareebs es kargad<br />

ar hqondeT<br />

gaazrebuli. mjera,<br />

rom molaparakebebis<br />

procesi, mosamzadebeliprocesis<br />

msgavsad intensiurad warimarTeba<br />

da SenarCunebuli<br />

iqneba qarTuli mxaris<br />

politikuri neba sakanonmdeblo<br />

da struqturuli<br />

reformebis gatarebasTan<br />

dakavSirebiT, rac molaparakebis<br />

process udaod daaCqarebs.<br />

ra gvWirdeba Tavisufali vaWrobis<br />

SeTanxmebis gasaformeblad<br />

amerikasTan Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesaxeb<br />

xelSekrulebebis gasaformeblad saqarTvelo-<br />

Si sursaTis uvneblobis kanonmdebloba saer-<br />

TaSoriso standartebs unda akmayofilebdes, _<br />

amis Sesaxeb sursaTis eqspertTa nawili saubrobs.<br />

rogorc cnobilia, amerikis prezidentma<br />

saqarTvelos pirvel pirTan TeTr saxlSi gamarTul<br />

Sexvedraze qarTuli mxarisadmi erT-erT<br />

gzavnilad or qveyanas Soris Tavisufali vaWrobis<br />

perspeqtiva daasaxela.<br />

„sasursaTo eqspertTa asociaciaSi~ acxadeben,<br />

rom bolo wlebSi qveyanaSi sursaTis uvneblobis<br />

kuTxiT bevri gakeTda, Tumca saerTaSoriso<br />

kanonmdeblobasTan harmonizaciamde jer kidev<br />

Sorsaa. asociaciis prezidentis TqmiT, amerikasTan<br />

da evrokaSirTan Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekrulebis<br />

gasaformeblad moTxovnebi identuria,<br />

winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi SeTanxmeba ver<br />

moxdeba.

s.e. _ evrokavSirs regulaciebi<br />

xom ar daamuxruWebs<br />

qarTuli biznesis<br />

ganviTarebas?<br />

k.z. _ modiT, am SekiTxvaze<br />

pasuxis gacema saqarTvelosa<br />

da evrokavSirs Soris<br />

Rrma da yovlismomcveli<br />

Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis<br />

Seqmnis mniSvnelobidan<br />

daviwyoT. rogorc cnobilia,<br />

saqarTvelo evrokav-<br />

Siris savaWro SeRavaTebiT<br />

_ preferenciaTa generalizebuli<br />

sistemiT (GSP) 1995<br />

wlidan sargeblobs. 2005 wlisivlisidan<br />

ki, saqarTvelos<br />

mieniWa GSP-is axali sqemis,<br />

GSP+-is beneficiaris statusi.<br />

am sqemis mixedviT, saqarTveloSi<br />

warmoebuli 7200<br />

dasaxelebis produqti evrokavSiris<br />

saimporto gadasaxadisganTavisu-<br />

fldeba. Tumca, aRniSnulisatarifo<br />

SeRavaTebis<br />

miniWebas, evrokav-<br />

SirSi qarTuli<br />

produqciis eqsportis<br />

saTanado<br />

zrda ar gamouwvevia.<br />

misi mTavari<br />

mizezi ki is gaxlavT,<br />

rom GSP+ satarifo<br />

barierebis daZlevaSi ki<br />

gviwyobs xels, magram evrokavSirSi<br />

produqciis eqsportisaTvis<br />

es sakmarisi ar<br />

aris. evrokavSiris sakmaod<br />

regulirebad bazarze Sesa-<br />

Rwevad satarifo barierebis<br />

garda iseTi arasatarifo<br />

barierebis daZlevaa aucilebeli,<br />

rogoricaa standartebi,<br />

sanitaruli da fitosanitaruli<br />

moTxovnebi da<br />

a.S. es ki namdvilad ar aris<br />

martivi saqme. swored arasatarifo<br />

barierebis daZlevis<br />

sirTule gaxlavT imis<br />

erT-erTi ZiriTadi mizezi,<br />

rom GSP-s sqemiT mosargeble<br />

qveynebi, maT Soris saqarTveloc,<br />

srulad ver iyeneben<br />

mTavari Tema<br />

GSP-iT miniWebul upiratesobebs.<br />

evrokavSirTan vaWrobisas<br />

arasatarifo barierebis<br />

daZlevas namdvilad Seuwyobs<br />

xels saqarTvelosa da<br />

evrokavSirs Soris Rrma da<br />

yovlismomcveli Tavisufali<br />

savaWro sivrcis Seqmna,<br />

risi didi mniSvnelobac sadao<br />

ar aris da amas naTlad<br />

xedavs qarTuli biznesi. evrokavSirTan<br />

Tavisufali savaWro<br />

reJimis drouli amoqmedeba<br />

swored kerZo seqtoris<br />

interesebSia, radgan xsenebuli<br />

evropis bazarTan<br />

mWidro integrirebas, Sesabamisad<br />

ki investiciebis da<br />

vaWrobis zrdas uzrunvelyofs.<br />

bunebrivia, rom evro-<br />

`<br />

kavSiris standarTebTan<br />

konstantine<br />

daaxloeba saSualo da grzaldastaniSvili<br />

Zelvadian perspeqtivaSi,<br />

evrokavSiris sakmaod regulirebad bazarze SesaRwevad satarifo<br />

barierebis garda, iseTi arasatarifo barierebis daZlevaaa<br />

ucilebeli, rogoricaa standartebi, sanitaruli da fitosanitaruli<br />

moTxovnebi da a.S. es ki namdvilad ar aris martivi saqme. swored<br />

arasatarifo barierebis daZlevis sirTule gaxlavT imis erTerTi<br />

ZiriTadi mizezi, rom GSP-s sqemiT mosargeble qveynebi, maT<br />

Soris saqarTveloc, srulad ver iyeneben GSP-iT miniWebul upiratesobebs<br />

`<br />

biznesisTvis da zogadad qarTuli<br />

ekonomikisTvis, dadebiT<br />

Sedegs gamoiRebs. ar<br />

unda dagvaviwydes, rom evrokavSirTan<br />

Tavisufali savaWro<br />

sivrcis Seqmnis Sedegad,<br />

saqarTvelosTvis msoflios<br />

erT-erTi yvelaze didi<br />

da mdidari evrokavSiris<br />

bazari srulad `gaixsneba~.<br />

es, ra sakvirvelia, ar niSnavs,<br />

rom iq qarTuli produqcia<br />

upirobod moxvdeba. bunebrivia,<br />

evropul bazarze<br />

dasamkvidreblad Cven produqcias<br />

mZime konkurenciis da-<br />

Zleva mouwevs, magram, rac<br />

mTavaria, amgvar konkurencia-<br />

Si monawileobis misaRebad<br />

qarTuli produqciisTvis satarifo<br />

da arasatarifo ba-<br />

rierebi moixsneba. mokled,<br />

amxela bazris da amxela SesaZleblobebis<br />

gaxsnam rogor<br />

SeiZleba biznesis ganvi-<br />

Tareba daamuxruWos?<br />

Tumca, yoveilve zemoT<br />

TqmulTan erTad, isic unda<br />

aRiniSnos, rom qarTul bizness<br />

axal biznes garemosTan<br />

Segueba mouwevs, rac martivi<br />

procesi ar iqneba, miT umetes,<br />

rom es procesi biznesis<br />

mxridan garkveul kapitaldabandebebs<br />

moiTxovs. aq kidev<br />

erTi ram minda aRvniSno. imisaTvis,<br />

rom qarTuli biznesi<br />

SedarebiT martivad Seeguos<br />

axal garemos, ukve am<br />

etapidan aqtiurad unda iyos<br />

CarTuli evrokavSirTan Tavisufali<br />

savaWro sivrcis<br />

7

ISSN 1512-4606<br />

universaluri aTobiTi klasifikacia<br />

uak 479,22<br />

s-323<br />

sakatalogo indeqsi<br />

17022<br />

yovelTviuri saerTaSoriso<br />

samecniero-analitikuri<br />

Jurnali<br />

gamomcemlebi:<br />

Tavisufali ekonomikisa da biznesis<br />

instituti<br />

Cveni partnioria<br />

mTels msoflioSi<br />

INTERNET SECURITIES,<br />

INC.<br />

www.internetsec.com<br />

referirebulia:<br />

AN AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION<br />

PUBLICATION (JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC<br />

LITERATURE)<br />

teqnikuri universitetis<br />

akademiuri sabWos mier<br />

Jurnali `saqarTvelos<br />

ekonomika~ Setanilia<br />

sadisertacio sabWos debulebiT<br />

gansazRvrul samecniero<br />

Jurnalebis CamonaTvalSi.<br />

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SesaZenad mimarTeT saagentoebs:<br />

s/s `macne~<br />

k. gamsaxurdias gamz. 39, 42.<br />

Sps `planeta forte~<br />

al. puSkinis q. 4, diRmis masivi 4,<br />

kv, 27 korp.<br />

Sps `saq.presa~<br />

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Sps `info-2007~<br />

a. wereTlis gamz. 142 a .<br />

Sps `pres-eqspresi~<br />

Zm. kakabaZeebis q. 7,<br />

iv. javaxiSvilis 86.<br />

Sps `jeo-media~<br />

g. CubinaSvilis q. 50.<br />

Sps `elva servisi~<br />

iosebiZis q. 49.<br />

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siiT:<br />

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emzar jgerenaia<br />

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Sexvevas cdilobda da Tan eburdRuneboda – aki, uxilavi iyo es xelio,<br />

arada, motexiloba sakmaod naTeli da xilvadiao. iqve kuTxeSi abraam<br />

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mindoda mimeloca da Tan avtografi meTxova am yvela drois udidesi<br />

politikosisTvis, radgan, Cemi azriT, man Seqmna ara marto Tanamedrove<br />

amerika, aramed, garkveulwilad _ msoflioc, radgan samoqalaqo omis<br />

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da Tavisuflebis axalma horizontma gaaCina amerikuli marad moZraobis,<br />

mizidulobis gravitacia – swrafva Tavisufali bazris da biznesisken.<br />

amitomac daweres am adamianze 16000-ze meti wigni. ara, nu<br />

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fenomenis Tema amouwuravia da mas me ver Sevafaseb. ubralod, Tayvaniscema<br />

mindoda da avtografi Zvel xuTdolarian kupiurze, sadac misi<br />

portreti iyo gamosaxuli (mokled, es xuTi yvelganaa), Tanac, mTeli<br />

ianvari urgentulSi davdiodi: gigi daWres (Cemi naTesavi bavSvi. ara,<br />

magas saerTod aranairi kavSiri ar aqvs ekonomikur TeoriebTan da<br />

politikasTan. vityodi, rom ufro otelosTan da SeqspirTan). didi<br />

gamocdileba miviRe wamlis da damxmare masalebis mitanis, gadaxvevis<br />

da ase Semdeg. mokled, avadmyofis movlis. fantastiuria, mixval<br />

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Tavisufalia, isini ar erevian, imitom, rom TviTon ar aqvT, magram mainc<br />

magaria _ kargi `koika~ aqvT 500 larad. es ise, jandacvaze da sabazro<br />

ekonomikis etiudze...<br />

sizmars davubrundeT. es 5-dolariani xelSi gamiSeSda, radgan<br />

linkolni ise saSinlad iyo Sewuxebuli da mosTqvamda, vifiqre, Wriloba<br />

awuxebs isev-Tqo, magram rom mivuaxlovdi da yuri kargad davugde, gavige,<br />

rom ase saSinlad dRevandel msoflio kapitalizmis bedze mosTqvamda<br />

da wuxda, wuxda Tavisufali bazris artaxebze da im gaurkvevlobaze,<br />

romelic dRes msoflio bazarze sufevs. ase ambobda, Tu am wverebiani<br />

marqsis sityvebi gamarTldla kapitalizmis Sesaxeb, meored sakuTari<br />

xeliT davixli tyvias da smits meore xilul xelsac movatexo.<br />

saSineli sanaxavi iyo imedgacruebuli bumberazi da Tavzardacemuli<br />

gavecale am sazarel lazareTs. apokalifsis SiSma<br />

gamaRviZa. gavxede moTovlil TeTr sabangadafarebul, fafuk Tbilisis<br />

quCebs. iseTi mSvidi da spetaki iyo, fexis dadgma mogerideboda.<br />

irgvliv Rrma zamTari da gamyinvareba iyo. SvebiT amovisunTqe, rom<br />

es saSineli koSmari mxolod sizmari iyo da CvenTan aseTi simSvide<br />

sufevda _ arc es kaprizuli sabazro-safinaso msoflio<br />

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rom araferi gvexeba _ gavifiqre gulSi sizmrisgan Tavzardacemulma<br />

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gavxseni, mindoda karg rameze mefiqra _ sul erTia iqiT ra xdeba,<br />

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werili Financial Times-dan iyo. martin volfi werda _ The shocks inflicted on<br />

the world by the upheavals of the past few years make a thoroughgoing overhaul urgent . guli<br />

momikvda – isev im saSinel kiTxvas svamda kapitalizmis momavlis Sesaxeb<br />

da xmamaRla pasuxobda safinaso ekonomikuri krizisidan gamomdnare<br />

kiTxvebs imis Sesaxeb, rom krizisi ar ganmeoredeboda Tu ara, susti<br />

regulireba; is disbalansi ar iqneboda mosaxleobis fenebs Soris Tu ara,<br />

momxmareblis interesebis meti dacva rom iyos; 21-e saukuneSi saaqcio<br />

sazogadoebebSi menejerebis diqtati rom ar iyos da aqciis mflobelTa<br />

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gadasaxadebs da maT ganawilebas sxvadasxva fenebs Soris srulyofa<br />

sWirdeba (Tumca, piradad eWvi mepareba, aman gadawyvitos ejuTrTis yuTis<br />

problema. ix. Jurnali `saqarTvelos ekonomika~ 3/2009) da rom finansebi<br />

unda gaimijnos ekonomikisgan, radgan, misi azriT, yvela ubedureba iqidan<br />

modis da is mkacrad unda gakontroldes. bolos Happy End daskvnas<br />

akeTebs, rom xarvezebis miuxedavad, kapitalizms ar aqvs alternativa da is<br />

yvelaze kargia, rac kacobriobas Seuqmnia!<br />

vaaa!... gavogndi, saxtad davrCi. axla mivxdi, ratom moitexa Tu<br />

motexes xeli smits da ratom iyo marqsi eqimi aibolitis rolSi an<br />

raze wuxda ase linkolni _ imdeni varegulireT da artaxebi vuWireT<br />

am msoflio bazars, rom saxelmwifo regulireba pirvel planze<br />

gadavida, politika da ekonomika srulad da nayofierad Seerwnen<br />

erTmaneTs da gaSiSvlda maTi intimuri urTierTobebi. ukve Riad<br />

vereviT ara marto makroekonomikis, aramed mikroekonomikis sakiTxebSi<br />

politikuri qulebis dasawerad, viTom socialuri TanasworobisaTvis<br />

viRebT biujetidan uzarmazar sagareo Tu saSiano valebs da CixSi<br />

Segvyavs msoflios wamyvani qveynebis ekonomikebi – Tan, sul ufro da<br />

ufro meti gvinda davbegroT, rom mTavrobebis kontrolqveS meti<br />

resursi aRmoCndes da meti vali gvinda aviRoT. ver gavarkvieT, CineTi<br />

rogor unda gaxdes 2016 wels sabazro ekonomikis qveyana an ruseTi? an<br />

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rom ver arsebobs?!<br />

gaqra Tavisufali bazari Tu vaqrobT amdeni `bail auTebiT~,<br />

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sawyali smiti, gamaxsenda Cemi sizmari, amitomac moatexes es<br />

uxilavi xeli mTavrobis sruliad xiluli xeliT. amitom eburdRuneboda<br />

marqsi, axia Senze da SfoTavda linkolni, radgan man<br />

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qveyana datova sicocxlis fasad da is aseTive msoflios<br />

bazisad moiazra.<br />

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erTian finansTa saministroebad gadaqceva saSveli.<br />

fanjaraSi gavixede, sudarasaviT Tovlgadafarebul TbilisSi<br />

isev siCume iyo, kvira dilis simSvides manqanebis sayviris xmac ar<br />

arRvevda, televizorSi ekonomikur forums gadmoscemdnen davosSi,<br />

sadac aseve ido Tovili, magram duRda iqauroba. xmas avuwie, daviZabe<br />

da vifiqre, imaT ician, is, rac me ar vici da iqneb, momcemen Cems<br />

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28/01/12<br />

(+995 32)25-16-00<br />

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mTavari redaqtori:<br />

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Jurnali gamodis<br />

yoveli Tvis 4 ricxvSi

SeqmnasTan dakavSirebuli<br />

molaparakebis procesSi. ra<br />

sakvirvelia, biznesma unda<br />

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warmomadgenelTa<br />

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Siris savaWro kanonmdeblobis<br />

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ukve didi xania<br />

muSaobs.<br />

Cven regularuladgamovcemTpublikaciebsevrokavSiris<br />

sava-<br />

Wro regulaciebisSesaxeb<br />

da Sesabamisseminarebsac<br />

vatarebT.<br />

rac Seexeba<br />

saqarTvelosa da evrokav-<br />

Sirs Soris Rrma da yovlismomcveli<br />

Tavisufali sava-<br />

Wro sivrcis SeqmnasTan dakavSirebuli<br />

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procesSi biznesis CarTulobis<br />

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`evrokavSirTan Tavisufali savaWro reJimis drouli amoqmedeba<br />

swored kerZo seqtoris interesebSia, radgan xsenebuli evropis bazarTan<br />

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zrdas uzrunvelyofs. bunebrivia, rom evrokavSiris standarTebTan<br />

daaxloeba saSualo da grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi biznesisTvis da<br />

zogadad qarTuli ekonomikisTvis dadebiT Sedegs gamoiRebs. ar<br />

unda dagvaviwydes, rom evrokavSirTan Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis<br />

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da mdidari, evrokavSiris bazari srulad `gaixsneba~<br />

`<br />

ri-saqarTvelos biznes-sab-<br />

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Siris Tavisufali savaWro<br />

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aris evropis bazari<br />

gansakuTrebiT prioritetuli<br />

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moTxovna sul ufro<br />

izrdeba da qarTvelma mewarmeebma<br />

es unda gaiTvaliswinon.<br />

aseve didia moTxovna<br />

qimiuri mrewvelobis<br />

produqciaze (sasuqebi) da feroSenadnobebze.sa-<br />

qarTvelosteqstilis warmoebis kargi<br />

tradiciebi<br />

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teqnologiebis danergvis<br />

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sferos produqciasac<br />

kargi perspeqtivebiSeiZleba<br />

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pesimisturi prognozi,<br />

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Tvelo didad ver ixeirebs<br />

evrokavSirTan Tavisufali<br />

vaWrobis reJimiT,<br />

radgan aq naklebad iwarmoeba<br />

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saintereso produqcia.<br />

ras ityviT am mosazrebasTan<br />

dakavSirebiT?

k.z. _ pirvel rigSi,<br />

getyviT, rom am pesimistur<br />

pozicias ver daveTanxmebi.<br />

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jer erTi, unda gavixsenoT,<br />

rom evrokavSiri amJamad<br />

saqarTvelos yvelaze didi<br />

savaWro partnioria. marTalia,<br />

evrokavSiris bazarze<br />

saqarTvelos<br />

eqsporti mniSvnelovnadCamorCeba<br />

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isic faqtia, rom<br />

eqsportis moculoba<br />

zrdis tendenciiTxasiaTdeba.<br />

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dResac iwarmoeba evropuli<br />

bazrisTvis saintereso produqcia.<br />

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savaWro sivrces Seqmnis, ris<br />

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`gaixsneba~, Cveni qveyana<br />

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mowinave teqnologiebisa da<br />

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konkurentunariani,<br />

evrokavSirisTvis (da ara marto<br />

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produqciis Seqmnis<br />

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gzardil konkurenciasTan<br />

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k.z. _ dRes ra, ar aris<br />

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produqciisTvis? rogorc<br />

mogexsenebaT, saqarTvelos sakmaod<br />

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savaWro politika<br />

aqvs. 2006 wlidan saqarTvelo-<br />

Si gauqmebulia saimporto gadasaxadebi.<br />

ase rom, Tavisufali<br />

savaWro reJimi saqarTve-<br />

los evrokavSirisTvis ukve<br />

miniWebuli aqvs da evropuli<br />

produqcia saqarTveloSi<br />

yovelgvari barierebis gareSe<br />

Semodis, rasac ver vityviT<br />

saqarTvelos produqciaze,<br />

romlisTvisac evrokav-<br />

Siris arasatarifo barierebis<br />

gadalaxva, xSir SemTxve-<br />

`yvelas egona, rom qarTuli Rvino ver gadarCeboda rusuli<br />

embargos Semdeg, magram is gadaCa da Tanac ise, rom qarTuli<br />

Rvinis xarisxi mkveTrad gaumjobesda da axla is saerTaSoriso<br />

bazrebze iwyebs adgilis damkvidrebas. Tundac Cveni magaliTi<br />

aviToT. jer kidev 3-4 wlis win, qarTuli bazris 95% importirebul<br />

Cais ekava, magarm Cven am konkurenciis pirobebSi mainc Sev-<br />

ZeliT maRali xarisxis produqciis warmoebiT bazarze adgilis<br />

damkvidreba<br />

`<br />

vaSi, SeuZlebeli xdeba. rogorc<br />

zemoT aRvniSne, evrokavSirTan<br />

vaWrobisas arasatarifo<br />

barierebis daZlevis<br />

mTavari xelSemwyobi faqtori<br />

saqarTvelosa da evrokavSirs<br />

Soris Rrma da yovlismomcveli<br />

Tavisufali<br />

savaWro sivrcis Seqmna iqneba.<br />

ase rom, evrokavSirTan<br />

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amoqmedeba saqarTvelos<br />

bizness pirobebs mxolod gauumjobesebs.<br />

amasTan erTad,<br />

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savaWro reJimis amoqmedeba<br />

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axali teqnologiebis<br />

Semotanas, investiciebis moc-<br />

mTavari Tema<br />

ulobis zrdas da konkurentunariani<br />

produqciis warmoebas.<br />

konkurentunariani<br />

produqcia ki mxolod saeqsportod<br />

ki ar iqneba gamiznuli,<br />

aramed, pirvel rigSi,<br />

saqarTvelos bazarze moikidebs<br />

fexs da Caanacvlebs<br />

imports.<br />

biznesis TvaliT<br />

evrokavSirTan Rrma da<br />

yovlismomcveli Tavisufali<br />

vaWrobis SeTanxmebis<br />

gaformeba qarTvel mewarmeebs<br />

SesaZleblobas miscems<br />

evropul bazarze sakuTari<br />

produqcia yovelgvari kvotebis,<br />

damatebiTi barierebisa<br />

da gadasaxadebis gareSe<br />

gaitanon. sazRvrebis gaxsnisaTvis<br />

sxvadasxva dargis<br />

warmomadgenlebi ukve emzadebian.<br />

rogorc `Cais mwarmoebelTa<br />

asocoaciaSi~ acxadeben,<br />

dargi gansakuTrebiT<br />

emzadeba, imisaTvis, rom sazRvrebis<br />

gaxsnas qarTveli<br />

Cais warmoeblebi momzadebulebi<br />

Sexvdnen da axal ga-<br />

riT gansxvavdeba saqarTvelo<br />

2012 wels saqarTvelos mTavroba msoflio bazrebze specialur<br />

sareklamo kampanias ganaxorcielebs, romlis mizanic imis Cveneba<br />

iqneba, riT gansxvavdeba saqarTvelo sxvebisgan. is, rom fraza `riT<br />

gansxvavdeba saqarTvelo~ mimdinare wlis mTavar gzavnilad iqceva,<br />

jer kidev gasuli wlis bolos gaxda cnobili.<br />

saqarTvelos mTavroba muSaobs imaze, rom am Sinaarsis informacia<br />

moxvdes dasavlur tele da beWdur saSualebebSi, maT Soris _ CNN-ze.<br />

saqarTvelos premieris gancxadebiT, msoflio ekonomikuri krizisis<br />

fonze saqarTveloSi ekonomikuri zrda fiqsirdeba, qveynis<br />

sareitingo maCveneblebi umjobesdeba da es ganasxvavebs saqarTvelos<br />

sxvebisgan.<br />

11

mowvevebTan gamklaveba maT-<br />

Tvis rTuli ar iyos.<br />

Cais mwarmoebeli kompania<br />

`geoplanti~ ZiriTadad<br />

eqsportzea orientirebuli,<br />

gasaRebis erT-erTi bazari<br />

ki evrokavSiria. `geoplan-<br />

tis~ direqtori, miSa Wkuaseli:<br />

`pirvel rigSi,<br />

Zalian misasalmebelia is<br />

faqti, rom saqarTveloevrokavSirs<br />

Soris amoqmeddeba<br />

Tavisufali vaWrobis<br />

reJimi. es qarTvel eqspor-<br />

`evrokavSiri-saqarTvelos biznes-sabWo amJamad specialuri samuSao<br />

jgufis Seqmnaze muSaobs. samuSao jgufis mTavari funqcia<br />

saqarTvelo-evrokavSiris Tavisufali savaWro reJimis problematikaze<br />

muSaoba, saqarTvelos xelisuflebis da evrostruqturebis<br />

Sesabamis samsaxurebTan mWidro urTierToba da maTTvis biznesis<br />

mosazrebebis miwodeba iqneba. samuSao jgufSi monawileobis misaRebad<br />

saqarTveloSi moqmedi sxva biznes asociaciebis warmomadgenlebic<br />

iqnebian miwveulni, ramac samuSao jgufi ufro warmomdgenlobiTi<br />

unda gaxados<br />

`<br />

tiorebs erTi-orad gauiolebs<br />

saqmes. pirvel rigSi,<br />

imitom, rom evropul bazarze<br />

SeRwevadoba da iq damkvidreba<br />

ufro advili iqneba<br />

Cveni brendebisaTvis da meorec,<br />

gaizrdeba qarTuli<br />

nawarmis konkurentunarianoba<br />

saerTaSoriso doneze.<br />

12 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

rac Seexeba konkretulad<br />

Cveni kompaniis gegmebs, am<br />

reJmis amoqmedebis gareSec,<br />

bunebrivia, rom yvela mewarme,<br />

gansakuTrebiT eqsportze<br />

orientirebuli, cdilobs<br />

ucxouri bazrebis wilis<br />

sul ufro didi masStabebiT<br />

aTvisebas, rac niSnavs damatebiT<br />

Semosavalsa da damatebiT<br />

samuSao adgilebs kompaniisaTvis.<br />

eqsportis ma-<br />

Cveneblis gazrdisken swrafva<br />

Cveulebrivi movlenaa. ga-<br />

monaklisi arc Cven varT. miT<br />

umetes, rom Cven Tavidanve<br />

aviReT orientiri evropul<br />

bazarze. miuxedavad imisa, rom<br />

jer sul raRac weliwadnaxevaria,<br />

rac bazarze varT, Cveni<br />

Cai ukve iyideba litvaSi,<br />

latviaSi, estoneTSi, italiaSi,<br />

poloneTSi, germaniasa<br />

da evropis sxva qveynebSi.<br />

bolo 30 wlis manZilze<br />

saqarTvelodan pirvelad Cven<br />

gavitaneT dafasoebuli Cai<br />

evropaSi eqsportze. evropa-<br />

Si Cai gasuli wlis seqtembridan<br />

gagvqvs, am periodos<br />

ganmavlobaSi gavitaneT 15<br />

tona dafasoebuli Cai, mimdinare<br />

wlis ganmavlobaSi<br />

ki, jamSi, 40 tona qarTuli<br />

Cais gatanas vgegmavT.<br />

s.e. _ mzard konkurenciaze<br />

ras ityviT?<br />

m.W. _ mas, visac konkurenciis<br />

eSinia, ar aris mzad<br />

im gamowvevebisaTvis, romelsac<br />

Tanamedrove bazari mewarmeebs<br />

uyenebs. pirvel rig-<br />

Si, unda aRvniSnoT, rom nebismieri<br />

ekonomika unda iyos<br />

konkurentuli, unda arsebobdes<br />

mZafri konkurencia nebismieri<br />

saxeobis warmoebaSi,<br />

winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, es<br />

ekonomika daiRupeba. meore sakiTxia,<br />

Tu ramdenad Tanabar<br />

pirobebSi iqnebian qarTveli<br />

da ucxoeli, igive _ evropeli<br />

mewarmeebi. arsebobs argumenti<br />

imis sasargeblod,<br />

rom aucilebelia adgilobrivi<br />

warmoebis dacva, Tundac<br />

imis gamo, rom aq saprocento<br />

ganakveTebi biznes sexebze<br />

maRalia, globalur bazrebTan<br />

SedarebiT,<br />

rac imas niSnavs, rom<br />

qarTveli mewarmeebisTvis<br />

warmoebis<br />

procesi met danaxarjebTan<br />

aris dakav-<br />

Sirebulio. magram<br />

me amis sapirispirod<br />

maqvs argumenti<br />

_ samagierod,<br />

CvenTan iafia muSaxeli,<br />

ganviTarebul<br />

qveynebSi ki muSaxelis daqiraveba<br />

Zalian did danaxarjebTan<br />

aris dakavSirebuli.<br />

ase rom, Cveni warmoebisaTvis<br />

konkurenciis gazrda<br />

ukeTesic iqneba, gaizrdeba<br />

Cveni nawarmis xarisxic da<br />

qarTveli momxmareblebis<br />

uflebebi metad iqneba dacu-

li. yvelas egona, rom qarTuli<br />

Rvino ver gadarCeboda<br />

rusuli embargos Semdeg, magram<br />

is gadaCa da Tanac ise,<br />

rom qarTuli Rvinis xarisxi<br />

mkveTrad gaumjobesda da axla<br />

is saerTaSoriso bazrebze iwyebs<br />

adgilis damkvidrebas.<br />

Tundac Cveni magaliTi avi-<br />

ToT. jer kidev 3-4 wlis win,<br />

qarTuli bazris 95% importirebul<br />

Cais ekava, magarm<br />

Cven am konkurenciis pirobeb-<br />

Si mainc SevZeliT maRali<br />

xarisxis produqciis warmoebiT<br />

bazarze adgilis damkvidreba~.<br />

kidev erTi dargi, romelic<br />

ZiriTadad eqsportzea<br />

orientirebuli da evropuli<br />

qveynebis bazars saeqsporto<br />

rukaze mniSvnelovani adgili<br />

uWiravs, aris Rvinis industria.<br />

Tamar metreveli,<br />

kompania `TbilRvinos~ eqsportis<br />

menejeri: `Tavisufali<br />

vaWrobis reJimi, ra Tqma<br />

unda, iqneba Zalian didi plusi<br />

kompaniebsTvis. savaWro<br />

procedurebis gamartiveba<br />

iseT did bazarze, rogoric<br />

aris evrokavSiri, mniSvnelovnad<br />

gazrdis Cveni gayidvebis<br />

moculobas. amJamad `Tbil-<br />

Rvino~ saqarTvelos erTerTi<br />

umsxvlesi eqsportioria.<br />

Cven sazRvargareT yovelwliurad<br />

gagvaqvs daaxloebiT<br />

2 milioni boTli. aqedan<br />

evropaze jer mcire nawili<br />

modis, magram, ra Tqma unda,<br />

vgegmavT eqsportis gazrdas,<br />

miT umetes, mas Semdeg, rac<br />

evrokavSirsa da saqarTvelos<br />

Soris vaWrobis Tavisufali<br />

reJimi amoqmeddeba~.<br />

`samtrestis~ marketingisa<br />

da saerTaSoriso<br />

urTierTobebis ganyofilebis<br />

xelmZRvaneli xatia<br />

beniZe: `2011 wlis<br />

monacemebis mixedviT, evrokavSiris<br />

mimarTulebiT<br />

eqsportirebul iqna 2998323<br />

boTli Rvino. mimdinare<br />

wels mosalodnelia am<br />

maCveneblis zrda. 2010 welTan<br />

SedarebiT, 2011-Si aRiniSneba<br />

eqsportis 19%-iani<br />

zrda. 2012 wels mTeli rigi<br />

RonisZiebebia dagegmili<br />

qarTuli Rvinis popularizaciis<br />

mizniT, rac Cveni<br />

produqciis cnobadobisa da<br />

eqsportirebuli raodenobis<br />

zrdas gamoiwvevs.<br />

rac Seexebaadgilobriv<br />

bazarze<br />

gazrdil konkurencias,saqarTvelosbazarze<br />

ucxouri<br />

mwarmoeblebis<br />

Semosvlis SesaZlebloba<br />

didad ar Secvlis<br />

zogad suraTs,<br />

vinaidan<br />

saqarTvelo<br />

mwarmoebeli qveyanaa da, Sesabamisad,<br />

ZiriTadad, adgilobrivi<br />

Rvino moixmareba. importirebuli<br />

Rvinos raodenoba<br />

adgilobriv bazarze<br />

Zalzed mcire procents Seadgens~.<br />

zogadi SefasebiT, evropis<br />

bazris aTvisebis gansakuTrebiT<br />

didi perspeqtiva<br />

mTavari Tema<br />

saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis<br />

seqtors aqvs. savaWro<br />

reJimebis gamartiveba xelsayrel<br />

pirobebs Seqmnis ise-<br />

Ti produqciis eqsportis-<br />

Tvis, rogoricaa xilisa da<br />

bostneulis wvenebi, xilfafebi,<br />

jemebi, xilis koncentratebi,<br />

dakonservebuli<br />

nayofi da Rvino. amasTanave,<br />

sawarmoebSi sawarmoo procesebSi<br />

saerTaSoriso standartebis<br />

danergvas ramdenime<br />

weli da seriozuli investiciis<br />

moZieba dasWirdeba.<br />

ramdenime weli da didi fuladi<br />

saxsrebia saWiro sareklamo<br />

kampaniis warmoebisa<br />

da bazarze adgilis mopovebisTvisac.<br />

saqarTvelo SesaZloa<br />

azia-evropasa<br />

da azia-amerikas Soris<br />

savaWro centri gaxdes<br />

saqarTvelos premier-ministris gancxadebiT, Tavisufal<br />

vaWrobaze molaparakebebis dawyeba umniSvnelovanesi<br />

iqneba saqarTvelos ekonomikuri winsvlisTvis. misi<br />

TqmiT, dRes saqarTvelo-evrokavSirs Soris Tavisufal<br />

vaWrobaze molaparakebebis pirveli raundi daiwyo da<br />

perspeqtivaSi saqarTvelo SeiZleba gaxdes savaWro centri,<br />

romelic azia-evropas da azia-amerikas Soris Camoyalibdeba.<br />

aq bevr kompanias SeeZleba investiciebi ganaxorcielos,<br />

radgan vaWroba damatebiTi barierebisgan<br />

gaTavisuflebuli iqneba.<br />

13

finansTa saministros<br />

momsaxurebis saagentoSi<br />

gasuli welis Seajames<br />

2<br />

011 wlis Tebervlidan<br />

saxelmwifo struqturebi,<br />

kerZo da fizikuri<br />

pirebi, uZrav da moZrav qonebas<br />

www.eauction.ge-s meSveobiT<br />

yidian. saqarTvelos finans-<br />

Ta saministros momsaxurebis<br />

saagentos xelmZRvanelma<br />

grigol baiburTma 10 ianvars<br />

sazogadoebas saagentos mu-<br />

Saobis 2011 wlis angariSi da<br />

2012 wlis samoqmedo gegma<br />

warudgina.<br />

angariSis mixedviT, saxelmwifo<br />

qonebis realizaciis<br />

Sedegad miRebulma<br />

Tanxam gasuli wlis ganmavlobaSi<br />

6 667 000 lari Seadgina.<br />

saxelmwifo biujetSi,<br />

miqceuli qonebis gankargvis<br />

Sedegad, gadairicxa 3 099 000<br />

lari. 2011 wels momsaxurebis<br />

saagentom gaxsna sami axali<br />

savaWro obieqti: samtrediaSi,<br />

axalcixesa da TbilisSi,<br />

navaWrma Tanxam mxolod<br />

am sam maRaziaSi 203<br />

400 lari Seadgina.<br />

ssip `saqarTvelos finansTa<br />

saministros momsaxurebis<br />

saagento~ momxmarebels<br />

sTavazobs saxelmwifo<br />

sakuTrebaSi arsebuli qonebis<br />

SeZenis moxerxebul siste-<br />

van<br />

baiburTi<br />

14 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

mas internet auqcionsa da<br />

internet maRaziis saxiT. garda<br />

amisa, 2011 wlis ianvridan<br />

momsaxurebis saagentom kerZo<br />

pirebisa da kompaniebis qonebis<br />

realizaciac daiwyo.<br />

dainteresebulma pirebma<br />

gasayidi qonebis Sesaxeb<br />

informacia momsaxurebis<br />

saagentos ofisSi unda<br />

waradginon da Semdgom Tavad<br />

saagento uzrunvelyofs<br />

informaciis saitze gan-<br />

Tavsebas. rogorc saagento-<br />

Si aRniSnaven, saagentos programistebi<br />

ukve muSaoben specialuri<br />

programis daweraze,<br />

romelis mixedviTac uaxloes<br />

xanebSi kerZo pirs an<br />

subieqts sakuTari e.w. interfeisi<br />

eqneba da gasayidi<br />

qonebis Sesaxeb informacias<br />

veb-gverdze Tavadve ganaTavsebs.<br />

momsaxureobis saagentos<br />

moTxovnis Tanaxmad, informaciis<br />

ganTavsebidan<br />

erTi Tvis vadaSi internetauqcioni<br />

unda dainiSnos.<br />

gasayidi qonebis fass Tavad<br />

mflobeli adgens da ara<br />

eqspertizis erovnuli biuro,<br />

rogorc es saxelmwifo<br />

qonebis Sefasebisas xdeba.<br />

momsaxurebis saagentos<br />

eleqtronul portalze<br />

www.eauction.ge _ dReisaTvis<br />

daregistrirebulia 16 189<br />

rezidenti fizikuri piri,<br />

997 rezidenti iuridiuli<br />

piri, 934 ararezidenti fizikuri<br />

piri da 62 ararezidenti<br />

iuridiuli piri. momsaxurebis<br />

saagentos partniori<br />

gaxda 390 iuridiuli<br />

da 90 fizikuri piri. 2011<br />

wels www.eauction.ge-ze gayiduli<br />

lotebis raodenoba<br />

15000 gadascda, veb-gverdze<br />

brunvam 240 000 000 Seadgina,<br />

xolo vizitorTa raodenobam<br />

1 802 000-s gadaaWarba.<br />

saagentos warmomadgenelTa<br />

gancxadebiT, saitis<br />

vizitorebis yvelaze didi<br />

raodenoba, saqarTvelos Semdeg<br />

ruseTze modis. saits<br />

yovedRiurad saSualod 7000<br />

damTvalierebeli hyavs, agvistos<br />

TveSi saits stumrobda<br />

saqarTvelodan _ 176 704,

useTidan _ 1 487, saberZneTidan<br />

_ 565, iordaniidan<br />

_ 510, aSS-dan _ 498, germaniidan<br />

_ 310, espaneTidan _ 280,<br />

poloneTidan _ 237, britaneTidan<br />

_ 221, azerbaijanidan<br />

_ 197, somx-<br />

eTidan _ 142 da<br />

sxva qveynebidan _<br />

13 910 mnaxveli.<br />

SegaxsenebT,<br />

rom noembris Tvidan,<br />

momsaxurebis<br />

saagentom daiwyo<br />

saxelwifo sakuTrebaSi<br />

moqceuli<br />

qonebis gankargvis axali<br />

formis _ lizingis gamoyeneba.<br />

momxmareblebi, romlebic<br />

ver axerxebdnen ZviradRirebuli<br />

teqnikisa da<br />

manqana-danadgarebis SeZenas,<br />

dReisaTvis eZlevaT saSualeba,<br />

gamoiyenon gankargvis axali<br />

forma _ lizingi. proeqtis<br />

avtorTa SefasebiT, aRniSnuli<br />

gankargvis forma metad<br />

xelsayreli iqneba mcire da<br />

ekonomikuri politika<br />

saSualo biznesis warmomadgenelTaTvis.<br />

Tumca, rogorc<br />

wlis Semajamabel Sexvedraze<br />

baiburTma aRniSna: `proeqtis<br />

amoqmedebis Semdeg sul oTxi<br />

loti gavaketeT da, simarTle<br />

giTxraT, daintereseba ar<br />

yofila. magram es Cveni<br />

muSaobis axali mimarTulebaa<br />

da velodebiT, rom uaxloes<br />

periodSi daintereseba<br />

investorebis mxridan am<br />

mimarTulebiT gaizrdeba.~<br />

2011 wlidan nebismier<br />

msurvels mieca saitidan sabanko<br />

plastikuri baraTis<br />

SekveTis SesaZlebloba, vebgverdidan<br />

aseve SesaZlebe-<br />

li gaxda liberTi bankis<br />

ganvadebis miReba. sagarantio<br />

Tanxis gadaxda 2011<br />

wlidan mxolod sabanko<br />

plastikuri baraTis meSveobiT<br />

xorcieldeba, aseve<br />

`momsaxurebis saagentom daiwyo saxelwifo sakuTrebaSi moqceuli<br />

qonebis gankargvis axali formis _ lizingis gamoyeneba. momxmareblebi,<br />

romlebic ver axerxebdnen ZviradRirebuli teqnikisa<br />

da manqana-danadgarebis SeZenas, dReisaTvis eZlevaT saSualeba, gamoiyenon<br />

gankargvis axali forma _ lizingi. proeqtis avtorTa<br />

SefasebiT, aRniSnuli gankargvis forma metad xelsayreli iqneba<br />

mcire da saSualo biznesis warmomadgenelTaTvis<br />

`<br />

SesaZlebeli gaxda eleqtronuli<br />

sabanko garantiis<br />

gaaqtiureba. 2012 wlidan<br />

saagentos mTavar prioritetebs<br />

warmoadgens eleqtronuli<br />

servisebis modernizacia/ganviTareba<br />

da dainteresebuli<br />

fizikuri da iuridiuli<br />

pirebis qonebis eleqtronuli<br />

auqcioniT gankargvis<br />

procesis gamartiveba.<br />

yazaxma investorebma likanis<br />

kompleqsis wili daTmes<br />

sastumro kompleqsi, romelic erT-erT yvelaze cnobil<br />

dasasvenebel kurort likanSi yazax investorebs unda ae-<br />

SenebinaT, nawilobriv saqarTvelos mTavrobis mier dafuZnebuli<br />

sapartnioro fondis sakuTrebaSi gadavida. gavrcelebuli<br />

informaciiT, saubaria sanatorium likanis 50 procentian<br />

wilze. Tumca, qarTuli mxare ar akonkretebs, ra Tanxa<br />

gadauxada `sapartnioro fondma~ yazax investorebs istoriuli<br />

kurortis dasabruneblad an saerTod gadauxada Tu<br />

ara.<br />

borjomis gamgebeli radio `komersantTan~ mxolod imis<br />

Sesaxeb saubrobs, rom yazaxi investorebi likanSi 4-varskvlaviani<br />

sastumros mSeneblobas 2012 wlis oqtomberSi daasruleben.<br />

yazaxebi sastumrosTan dakavSirebiT aRebul valdebulebas<br />

asruleben da mSeneblobas 24-saaTian reJimSi awarmoeben.<br />

rogorc cnobilia: likanis sanatoriumi yazaxebs 2006<br />

wels gadaecaT. Tumca, mas Semdeg kurortis ganaxleba ver<br />

moxerxda, ris gamoc saqarTvelos prezidentis kritika investorebma<br />

ramdenjerme daimsaxures. gakeTda mini-<br />

Snebac, rom Tu yazaxebi droulad ar warmoadgendnen<br />

kurortis gegmas, obieqti CamoerTmeodaT.<br />

15

siRaribe<br />

msoflios utevs<br />

levan<br />

asaTiani<br />

d<br />

Revandeli msoflios<br />

erT-erT umTavres<br />

problemad kvlav siRaribe<br />

da ekonomikuri uTanasworoba<br />

rCeba. maTTan brZola<br />

mTavrobebs SeuZliaT<br />

qveyanaSi Sesabamisi sagadasaxado<br />

politikiTa da miznobrivi<br />

fuladi transferebiT.<br />

bolo 2 aTwleulis<br />

ganmavlobaSi am kuTxiT warmatebuli<br />

reformebi ganaxorcieles<br />

samxreT amerikis,<br />

gansakuTrebiT ki, Cilesa da<br />

braziliis mTavrobebma. Tumca<br />

ganviTarebul qveynebTan<br />

SedarebiT laTinuri ame- meqsikisa da israelis win.<br />

rikis qveynebSi ekonomikuri da es miuxedavad imisa, rom<br />

uTanasworoba mainc didia. bolo wlebSi ganxorciele-<br />

OECD-is axali angariSis mibuli jandacvis, ganaTlebixedviT,<br />

CileSi OECD-is qveysa da socialuri dacvis pronebs<br />

Soris, ekonomikuri uTagramebi Cilesa da brazilnasworobis<br />

maCvenebeli yveiaSi warmatebulad aris Selaze<br />

maRalia. rac Seexeba fasebuli.<br />

siRaribes, maCveneblis mixed- es imas niSnavs, rom samviT,<br />

romelic zomavs mosaxxreT amerikis qveynebSi siRleobis<br />

im wils, romelsac aribisa da ekonomikuri uTa-<br />

`<br />

saSualo Semosavalze naklenasworobis maCvenebeli rambi<br />

Semosavali aqvs (brazildenime wlis win kidev ufro<br />

bolo wlebSi ganxorcielebuli jandacvis, ganaTlebisa da<br />

socialuri dacvis programebi Cilesa da braziliaSi warmatebulad<br />

aris Sefasebuli. es imas niSnavs, rom samxreT amerikis qveynebSi<br />

siRaribisa da ekonomikuri uTanasworobis maCvenebeli ramdenime<br />

wlis win kidev ufro sagangaSo niSnulebze iyo. laTinuri<br />

amerikisa da karibis zRvis auzis qveynebis gaerTianebuli<br />

erebis komisiis mier 2011 wlis bolos gamoqveynebuli monacemebis<br />

mixedviT, 2010 wels regionis msaxleobis 31.4% siRaribis zRvars<br />

qvemoT cxovrobda<br />

`<br />

ias kidev ufro uaresi maCveneblebi<br />

aqvs, magram is<br />

OECD-is wevri ar aris, amitom<br />

ver moxvda am reitingSi),<br />

Cile aris bolodan mesame,<br />

16 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

sagangaSo niSnulebze iyo.<br />

laTinuri amerikisa da karibis<br />

zRvis auzis qveynebis<br />

gaerTianebuli erebis komisiis<br />

mier 2011 wlis bo-<br />

los gamoqveynebuli monacemebis<br />

mixedviT, 2010 wels<br />

regionis mosaxleobis 31.4%<br />

siRaribis zRvars qvemoT cxovrobda.<br />

2008 wels es ma-<br />

Cvenebeli 33%, xolo 2009<br />

wels 33.1% iyo. 1990-ian wleb-<br />

Si siRaribis maCvenebeli<br />

48.4%-s Seadgenda. radikaluri<br />

nabijebis gadadgma regionis<br />

qveynebma siRaribis<br />

Sesamcireblad 1999 wlidan<br />

daiwyes. mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi<br />

moxda<br />

2000 wlidan, roca<br />

qveynebis saTaveSi<br />

memarcxene mTavrobebi<br />

movidnen.<br />

am droisaTvis ganskuTrebiT<br />

rTul<br />

viTarebaSi iyvenen<br />

Cile da brazilia.<br />

dRes am ori<br />

qveynis gamocdileba<br />

siRaribesa da<br />

ekonomikur uTanasworobas-<br />

Tan brZolaSi samagaliToa.<br />

bolo wlebSi maT reformebis<br />

warmatebas orma mniSvnelovanma<br />

faqtormac Seuw

yo xeli: 2010 wels laTinuri<br />

amerikis mSp 5.9%-iT gaizarda,<br />

rac imis maniSnebelia,<br />

rom 2008 wlis finansurma<br />

recesiam regionze<br />

mcire gavlena moaxdina. 2009<br />

wels ki regionis mSp mxolod<br />

1.9%-iT Semcirda. udidesi<br />

mniSvneloba hqonda RaribebisaTvis<br />

gankuTvnil miznobriv<br />

programebs. zogierTma<br />

qveyanam, braziliisa<br />

da kolumbiis CaTvliT, ukve<br />

moaxdina uRaribesi mosaxleobisTvis<br />

gamiznuli axali<br />

programebis prezentacia.<br />

Tumca, eqspertTa SefasebiT,<br />

miznis miRweva mxolod saxelmwifo<br />

biujetidan dafinansebuli<br />

socialuri programebiT<br />

SeuZlebelia. amis<br />

paralelurad aucilebelia,<br />

qveynis mwarmoeblurobis<br />

zrda da ganaTlebis xarisxis<br />

amaRleba. regionis<br />

mosaxleobis 13% kvlavac<br />

ukidures siRaribeSi cxovrobs.<br />

uTanasworobasa da siR-<br />

aribesTan brZola sxvadasxva<br />

qveynebs sxvadasxvagavari<br />

warmatebiT gamosdis. zogi-<br />

FAO sakvebi produqtebis fasebis indeqsi<br />

ian.<br />

Teb.<br />

mar.<br />

apr.<br />

mai.<br />

ivn.<br />

ivl.<br />

ekonomikuri politika<br />

agv.<br />

seq.<br />

oqt.<br />

noe.<br />

dek.<br />

erTma qveyanam maCveneblebi<br />

bevrad gaaumjobesa sxvebTan<br />

SedarebiT. jinis indeq-<br />

si, romelic ama Tu im qveyanaSi<br />

uTanasworobis maCvenebels<br />

zomavs, qveynebis<br />

mdgomareobas 0-dan 1-mde<br />

koeficientiT afasebs. urugvais<br />

jinis koeficienti 2009<br />

wels iyo 0.433, venesuelasi<br />

ki 0.412, maSin, roca aSS-Si<br />

es maCvenebeli 0.468 iyo. peruSi<br />

jinis koeficienti am<br />

droisaTvis iyo 0.469, salvadorSi<br />

– 0.478, ekvadorSi _<br />

0.500 da kosta-rikaSi _ 0.501.<br />

amasTanave, 2009 wels siRaribis<br />

maCvenebeli argentinas,<br />

Cilesa da urugvais<br />

naklebi hqonda, vidre aSS-s.<br />

marTalia, siRaribis SemcirebaSi<br />

regionis saerTo ekonomikurma<br />

zrdam didi wvlili<br />

Seitana, Tumca, mecnierTa<br />

azriT, aranaklebi<br />

mniSvnelobisaa is, rom Semosavlebis<br />

gadanawilebis dros<br />

uzarmazari ufskruli, romelic<br />

maRalanazRaurebad da dabalanazRaurebaddasaqmebulebs<br />

Soris arsebobda, am<br />

qveynebSi nel-nela mcirdeba.<br />

amas ki qveynebma ganaTlebis<br />

xarisxis gaumjobesebiT miaRwies,<br />

aseve, im programebiT,<br />

17

FAO sakvebi produqtebis fasebis indeqsi<br />

romlebic dabalkvalificiuri<br />

kadrebis gadamzdebasa da<br />

maTTvis fuladi transferebis<br />

saxelmwifo biujetebidan<br />

gamoyofas isaxavda miznad. am<br />

mxriv, gansakuTrebiT aRsani-<br />

Snavia braziliisa da Ciles<br />

magaliTebi.<br />

18 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

nominaluri<br />

realuri<br />

braziliuri<br />

progresi<br />

brazilia istoriulad<br />

xasiaTdeba ekonomikuri uTanasworobisa<br />

da siRaribis<br />

maRali doniT. 2001 wels<br />

braziliis jinis indeqsi<br />

`umwvavesi<br />

problemaa isic, rom umuSevarTa socialur dacvis<br />

muxli saqarTvelos socialuri dacvis funqcionalur ganawileba-<br />

Si saerTod ar aris Cadebuli. qveyanaSi umuSevarTa raodenoba ar<br />

iklebs, arc dasaqmebis politika atarebs aqtiur xasiaTs. maSin,<br />

roca specialistebi umZimesi socialuri fonis mogvarebis erTerT<br />

gzad saqarTveloSic samuSao kadrebis gadamzadebasa da biznes-unarebis<br />

gamomuSavebaSi xedaven<br />

`<br />

0.558 iyo. marTalia, 2009 wlisaTvis<br />

es maCvenebeli 0.537mde<br />

Semcirda, magram didad<br />

saxarbielo mdgomareobaze<br />

arc es cifri metyvelebs. 2001<br />

wels braziliis mosaxleobis<br />

37.5% siRaribeSi, maTgan<br />

ukidures siRaribeSi ki 13.2%<br />

cxovrobda. 2009 wlisaTvis<br />

siRaribe Semcirda 24.9%-mde,<br />

ukidures siRaribeSi mcxovrebTa<br />

maCvenebeli ki _ 7%mde.<br />

braziliis mTavrobis<br />

umTavresi mizani 2015 wlamde<br />

ukidures siRaribeSi mcxovrebi<br />

mosaxleobis raodenobis<br />

ganaxevrebaa. 2001-2009<br />

wlebSi braziliaSi siRaribe<br />

54%-iT Semcirda, ekonomikurma<br />

zrdam ki 46% Seadgina.<br />

2001-2007 wlebSi Raribi<br />

mosaxleobis Semosavali<br />

yovelwliurad<br />

7%-iT izrdeboda.<br />

maSin, roca mTlianad<br />

Semosavlebi<br />

qveyanaSi saSualod<br />

2.5%-iT, mdidrebis<br />

Semosavali ki mxolod<br />

1.1%-iT izrdeboda.<br />

moqalaqeebi gadaudebel daxmarebas<br />

ufasod ver gamoiZaxeben<br />

saqarTvelos kanonmdeblobaSi Sesuli cvlilebis<br />

Tanaxmad, 112-ze darekva fasiani iqneba.<br />

mTavrobis dadgenilebiT, satelefono nomers<br />

yovelTviurad daericxeba „112" momsaxurebis safasuri,<br />

rac iuridiuli piris SemTxvevaSi 50 TeTri,<br />

xolo indmewarmis da fizikuri piris SemTxvevaSi<br />

_ 20 TeTria.<br />

fiqsirebuli qselidan 112-ze darekvis SemTxvevaSi,<br />

momxmarebeli gadasaxads yoveli Tvis bolos,<br />

saabonentosTan erTad gadaixdis, xolo mobilur<br />

operatorebs nomris momsaxurebis Rirebuleba<br />

angariSidan CamoeWrebaT. 112-is saSualebiT<br />

SesaZlebeli iqneba saswrafo samedicino daxmarebis,<br />

saxanZro da samaSvelo samsaxurebis gamoZaxeba.<br />

Tbilisis sakrebulos umciresobis nawili<br />

aRniSnul dadgenilebas socialurad gaumarTlebel iniciativas uwodebs da acxadeben, rom gadaudebeli<br />

daxmarebis gamoZaxebaze fasis dadeba mis Sinaarss ewinaaRmdegeba. 112 amerikuli 911-is<br />

analogis Seqmnas iTvaliswinebs, Tumca, 911-ze wvdoma qarTuli 112-sgan gansxvavebiT yvelanairi<br />

dabrkolebis gareSe xdeba.

aziliis mTavrobam Sesabamisi<br />

saganmanaTleblo<br />

programebisa da umaRlesi ganaTlebis<br />

xarisxis amaRlebiT<br />

SeZlo mosaxleobis<br />

Semosavlebs Soris uzarmazari<br />

ufskrulis Semcireba.<br />

amasTanave, saxelmwifo socialuri<br />

programebis xarjze<br />

Semosavlebi gaezardaT socialurd<br />

daucvel fenebsa<br />

da umuSevvrebs. magram problemaa<br />

is, rom sax-<br />

elmwifotransferebis wili, mosaxleobis<br />

mTlian<br />

SemosavlebSi Zalian<br />

maRalia, daaxloebiT<br />

80%. rac<br />

imas niSnavs, rom<br />

braziliaSi, ekonomikuriuTanasworobis<br />

SemcirebaSi<br />

lomis wvlili<br />

swored saxelmwifo socialur<br />

programebs uWiravs. msxvili<br />

investiciebia Cadebuli<br />

`adamianuri ganviTarebis~<br />

programebSi. 2004-2006<br />

wlebSi programebSi CarTuli<br />

ojaxebisTvis gamoyofili<br />

ekonomikuri politika<br />

saprogramo Tanxebi 6.5 milionidan<br />

11 milionamde gaizrda.<br />

programam moicva 12 milionze<br />

meti ojaxis warmomadgeneli.<br />

2011 wels amoqmedda<br />

kidev erTi axali programa,<br />

romlis mTavari mizani aris<br />

Raribi ojaxebis xelmisawvdomobis<br />

gazrda xarisxian<br />

jandacvasa da ganaTlebaze.<br />

gasul wels programaSi damatebiT<br />

CaerTo 1.3 milioni<br />

bavSvi. ganaTlebis xelmisawvdomobis<br />

maCvenebeli qveyanaSi<br />

mniSvnelovnad gaizrda.<br />

2000-2008 wlebSi saSualo<br />

skolis kursdamTavrebulTa<br />

raodenoba 68.5%-dan<br />

81.5%-mde gaizarda.<br />

Cile _ samxreT<br />

amerikis OECD<br />

braziliisa da laTinuri<br />

amerikis sxva qveynebTan<br />

SedarebiT Cile istoriulad<br />

xasiaTdeba siRaribisa<br />

da ekonomiuri uTanasworobis<br />

naklebi doniT. XX-XXI<br />

saukuneebis mijnaze Cilem<br />

didi ekonomikuri zrda ganicada,<br />

ramac gadamwyveti<br />

`braziliis mTavrobam Sesabamisi saganmanaTleblo programebisa<br />

da umaRlesi ganaTlebis xarisxis amaRlebiT SeZlo mosaxleobis<br />

Semosavlebs Soris uzarmazari ufskrulis Semcireba. amasTanave,<br />

saxelmwifo socialuri programebis xarjze Semosavlebi gaezardaT<br />

socialurd daucvel fenebsa da umuSevvrebs. magram problemaa<br />

is, rom saxelmwifo transferebis wili, mosaxleobis mTlian SemosavlebSi<br />

Zalian maRalia, daaxloebiT 80%. rac imas niSnavs, rom<br />

braziliaSi, ekonomikuri uTanasworobis SemcirebaSi lomis wvlili<br />

swored saxelmwifo socialur programebs uWiravs<br />

roli Seasrula siRaribis<br />

SemcirebaSi. siRaribeSi mcxovrebi<br />

mosaxleobis raodenoba<br />

CileSi 2000-2009 wleb-<br />

Si 20-dan 11%-mde Semcirda.<br />

SedarebisaTvis _ 2009 wels<br />

aSS-is siRaribis maCvenebe-<br />

`<br />

mosaxleobis 56%-s internetiT<br />

arasodes usargeblia<br />

socialur qselebSi mwvave diskusia gamoiwvia evraziis Tanam-<br />

Sromlobis fondis angariSma, romlis Tanaxmadac, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis<br />

56%-s internetiT arasodes usargeblia. igive angariSis<br />

mixedviT, informaciis miRebis mTavari wyaro saqarTveloSi televiziaa.<br />

yvelaze xSirad mosaxleoba informacias `rusTavi2~-isa da<br />

`imedisgan~ igebs, sazogadoebrivi mauwyebeli ki ierarqiaSi mesame<br />

adgilzea.<br />

socialuri qselebis momxmareblebis erTi nawilis SefasebiT,<br />

angariSi ararealisturia, radgan, maTi azriT, internetiT mosaxleobis<br />

gacilebiT meti procenti sargeblobs.<br />

realisturad afasebs evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis angariSs<br />

`gruzia onlaini~ _ im 56% procentSi, romelsac interneti arasdros<br />

gamouyenebia, regionebis mosaxleoba (radgan iq jer kidev dgas internetizaciis<br />

problema), agreTve diasaxlisebi igulisxmeba. garda amisa,<br />

saqarTveloSi 50-55 wels gadacilebuli adamianebi naklebad sargebloben<br />

internetiT da maTi mxolod 5% Tu iyenebs globalur qsels. rogorc kvlevam aCvena,<br />

internetiT mosargeble 45%-dan, 70% internets mxolod socialuri qselebiT sargeblobisTvis<br />

iyenebs da ara informaciis misaRebad.<br />

19

li 14.3% iyo.<br />

iseve rogorc braziliaSi,<br />

socialuri programebis<br />

danaxarjebi CileSic<br />

mniSvnelovnad gaizrda. danaxarji<br />

1 sul mosaxleze 1998<br />

wels iyo 686 aSS dolari,<br />

2009 wels ki _ es maCvenebeli<br />

945 aSS dolaramde<br />

gaizarda. gaizarda ga-<br />

`siRaribis maCvenebeli Cvens qveyanaSi erT-erT mTavar problemad<br />

rCeba. 2012 wels saqarTvelos mTvarobis mier prioritetulad<br />

deklarirebul sam ZiriTad mimarTulebas Soris, ganaTlebasa<br />

da soflis meurneobasTan erTad, jandacva da socialuri sferoc<br />

Sedis. magram, sainteresoa, ramdenad Tanmimdevrulia saqarTvelos<br />

mTavrobis socialuri politika?<br />

naTlebis sistemis dafinansebac.<br />

Tu 1998 wels ganaTlebaze<br />

mSp-is 3.6% ixarjeboda,<br />

2009 wels es maCevnebeli<br />

4.3%-mde gaizrda. ganaTlebis<br />

xarisxis gazrdam<br />

ki xeli Seuwyo maRal kvalificiur<br />

da dabal kvalifiuciur<br />

muSaxelis xelfasebs<br />

Soris gansxvavebis<br />

Semcirebas.<br />

eqspertTa SefasebiT, es<br />

imas ar niSnavs, rom regionis<br />

qveynebma jandacvisa da<br />

20 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

socialuri sferos reformebs<br />

didi yuradReba<br />

aRar miaqcion da/an arsebuli<br />

programebi Seamciron da/<br />

an sxva alternatiuli programebis<br />

ganxorcielebaze<br />

ar ifiqron. radgan, miuxedavad<br />

warmatebuli statistikisa,<br />

siRaribe regionis<br />

kvlavac mTavar gamowvevad<br />

`<br />

rCeba. ganviTarebul qveynebTan<br />

SedarebiT Ciles<br />

mTavrobis socialuri danaxarjebi<br />

mcirea _ mSp-is 16%,<br />

maSin, roca OECD-is saSualo<br />

maCvenebeli 27%-ia.<br />

eqspertTa SefasebiT, socialuri<br />

programebis paralelurad,<br />

ufro efeqtiani<br />

sagadasaxado politikis gatarebaa<br />

aucilebeli imisaTvis,<br />

rom ufro metad Semcirdes<br />

ekonomikuri uTanasworoba<br />

da siRaribe. ukeTe-<br />

si samuSao pirobebi da ma-<br />

Rali xarisxis umaRlesi ganaTleba<br />

aris samuSao Zalis<br />

stimulirebisa da ekonomikuri<br />

zrdis winapiroba.<br />

korporaciebisa da individebis<br />

mier gadasaxadebisaTvis<br />

Tavis arideba mSp-s<br />

2.5%-iT amcirebs. Ciles ekonomika<br />

gasul wels 6.6%-iT<br />

gaizarda, magram wels navaraudevia<br />

mxolod 4%-iani<br />

zrda.<br />

CineTSi dRe-Ramis<br />

minimaluri<br />

saarsebo minimumi<br />

1 dolaramde<br />

izrdeba<br />

CineTi gegmavs, sofleb-<br />

Si sasicocxlo minimumis<br />

oficialuri done dRe-Rame-<br />

Si erT dolaramde gazardos.<br />

amis Sesaxeb saagento<br />

„sinhua~ ityobineba. amasTan,<br />

wliuri saarsebo minimumi<br />

200 dolaridan 360 dolaramde<br />

moimatebs.<br />

axali maCvenebeli 92%iT<br />

aRemateba CineTis xelisuflebis<br />

mier dadgenil<br />

zRvars, romelic amJamad moqmedebs,<br />

Tumca mainc ver eweva<br />

msoflio bank-<br />

is standartebs (1,25<br />

dolari dReSi) da<br />

aSS-is maCvenebels,<br />

sadac wliuri saarsebo<br />

minimumi samsulianiojaxisTvis<br />

17,347 dolaria.<br />

saarsebo minimumis TiTqmis<br />

gaormageba CineTSi Raribebis<br />

oficialur maCvenebels<br />

100 milion adamianamde<br />

gazrdis. Sesabamisad,<br />

saWiro iqneba centraluri<br />

mTavrobisgan axali finansuri<br />

daxmareba. pekinis<br />

erT-erTi universitetis<br />

profesoris li Sinis prognoziT,<br />

wliuri saarsebo minimumis<br />

310 dolaramde gazrdis<br />

SemTxvevaSi, CineTSi<br />

Raribebis ricxvi 130 mil-

ionamde moimatebs. calkeuli<br />

eqspertebi aRniSnaven,<br />

rom CineTi xelovnurad amcirebs<br />

wliuri saarsebo<br />

minimumis maCvenebels, raTa<br />

sazogadoebis yuradReba<br />

siRaribesTan brZolaSi<br />

miRweul warmatebebs miapyros.<br />

CineTis swrafma ekonomikurma<br />

zrdam bolo sami aTwleulis<br />

ganmavlobaSi milionobiT<br />

adamians siRaribisgan<br />

Tavis daRwevis saSualeba<br />

misca, magram amavdroulad<br />

Raribebsa da mdidrebs Soris<br />

qonebrivi gansxvaveba kidev<br />

ufro gaizarda.<br />

ra xdeba<br />

saqarTveloSi<br />

amJamad, saqarTvelos jinis<br />

koeficienti 40.8%-s udris.<br />

aRsaniSnavia,<br />

rom saqarTvelos<br />

indikatori laTinuri<br />

amerikis<br />

qveynebis indikatorebis<br />

msgavsia<br />

(venesuela 43.4, urugvai<br />

47.1, kolumbia<br />

58.5). am qveynebisaTvis<br />

damaxasia-<br />

Tebeli niSani sa-<br />

Sualo klasis ar<br />

arseboba anda mcirericxovani<br />

saSualo klasia. saqar-<br />

Tvelos jinis koeficienti<br />

gacilebiT maRalia ganvi-<br />

Tarebuli qveynebis Sesabamis<br />

koeficientebze, rac qveyanaSi<br />

seriozuli socialuri<br />

da ekonomikuri problemis<br />

arsebobaze metyvelebs.<br />

siRaribis maCvenebeli<br />

Cvens qveyanaSi erT-erT mTavar<br />

problemad rCeba. 2012<br />

wels saqarTvelos mTvarobis<br />

mier prioritetulad deklarirebul<br />

sam ZiriTad<br />

mimarTulebas Soris, gana-<br />

Tlebasa da soflis meurneobasTan<br />

erTad, jandacva da<br />

ekonomikuri politika<br />

socialuri sferoc Sedis.<br />

magram, sainteresoa, ramdenad<br />

Tanmimdevrulia saqarTvelos<br />

mTavrobis socialuri<br />

politika?<br />

socialur sferoSi mTavrobam<br />

arsebiTi xasiaTis<br />

cvlilebebis ganxorcieleba<br />

2005 wlidan daiwyo, rodesac<br />

ukiduresad Raribi mosaxleobisTvis<br />

socialuri<br />

dacvis axali sistemis danergvis<br />

iniciativiT gamovida<br />

da, Sesabamisad, strategiul<br />

dokumentebSic prioritetul<br />

mimarTulebad<br />

siRaribis daZleva iqna aRiarebuli.<br />

dRemde mTavrobis<br />

umTavres saSualovadian mizans,<br />

siRaribis Semcireba da<br />

mosaxleobaSi socialurad<br />

daucveli fenis keTildReobis<br />

dacva warmoadgens.<br />

Tumca, pesimisturi statis-<br />

tika aCvenebs, rom es sfero<br />

gamarTuli da mdgradi araa.<br />

is, rom saqarTvelos mosaxleobis<br />

50-55% siRaribis<br />

zRvars dabla, 15% ki _ ukiduresi<br />

siRaribis pirobeb-<br />

Si cxovrobs, reformebis gatarebis<br />

dauyovnebliv saWiroebaze<br />

metyvelebs.<br />

mTavrobam pensiebisa da<br />

miznobrivi socialuri daxmarebis<br />

programebis meSveobiT,<br />

romlebic 2006 wlis<br />

meore naxevarSi waradgina,<br />

mniSvnelovani nabiji gadadga<br />

win. 2003-2007 wlebSi<br />

socialurad daucveli ojaxebis<br />

wliuri Semosavali<br />

gaizarda, Tumca am zrdaSi,<br />

iseve rogorc Cilesa da<br />

braziliis SemTxvevaSi, mniSvnelovani<br />

komponenti socialuri<br />

daxmareba iyo da<br />

ara dasaqmebisa da, Sesabamisad,<br />

Semosavlebis gazrdili<br />

maCvenebeli.<br />

miuxedavad imisa, rom<br />

2003-2007 wlis periodSi sa-<br />

Sualo Semosavlebi gaizarda,<br />

qveyanaSi siRaribe ar<br />

Semcirebula, rasac bevri<br />

mizezi ganapirobebda. pirvel<br />

rigSi ki, is faqti, rom<br />

ekonomikuri da sajaro seqtoris<br />

yovlismomcvelma reformebma<br />

am periodSi ufro<br />

meti adamiani datova samsaxuris<br />

gareSe, vidre daasaqma;<br />

amasTanave, is seqtorebi, sadac<br />

Semosavlebis zrda<br />

dafiqsirda (mSenebloba, finansuri<br />

momsaxureba, samTo<br />

mrewveloba, sajaro samsax-<br />

`saarsebo minimumis TiTqmis gaormageba CineTSi Raribebis oficialur<br />

maCvenebels 100 milion adamianamde gazrdis. Sesabamisad,<br />

saWiro iqneba centraluri mTavrobisgan axali finansuri daxmareba.<br />

pekinis erT-erTi universitetis profesoris li Sinis prognoziT,<br />

wliuri saarsebo minimumis 310 dolaramde gazrdis SemTxvevaSi,<br />

CineTSi Raribebis ricxvi 130 milionamde moimatebs. calkeuli<br />

eqspertebi aRniSnaven, rom CineTi xelovnurad amcirebs wliuri<br />

saarsebo minimumis maCvenebels, raTa sazogadoebis yuradReba siRaribesTan<br />

brZolaSi miRweul warmatebebs miapyros<br />

`<br />

uri), mTliani dasaqmebis Zalian<br />

mcire nawils warmoadgenen.<br />

2006-2008 wlebSi saqarTvelos<br />

ekonomika yovelwliurad,<br />

saSualod, 1.8 miliardi<br />

lariT izrdeboda. Sesabamisad,<br />

izrdeboda socialuri<br />

dacvis xarjic, 2009 wlis<br />

CaTvliT, yovelwliurad, sa-<br />

Sualod, 181.6 milioni lariT.<br />

2006-2010 wlebSi socialur<br />

dacvaze sul 5.1 miliardi<br />

lari daixarja. Tumca<br />

2010 wels socialuri dacvis<br />

xarji 40 milioni lariT<br />

Semcirda. klebaze gavlena<br />

globalurma ekonomikurma<br />

krizisma moaxdina: 2009 wels<br />

21

`siRaribis Semcirebaze yvelaze ukeT moqmedebs pensiebi da<br />

miznobrivi socialuri daxmarebebi. pensiebis gareSe, siRaribis<br />

maCvenebeli gaizrdeboda 23.6%-dan 32.9%-mde, xolo miznobrivi<br />

socialuri daxmarebebi da sxva socialuri servisebi siRaribes<br />

2%-iT amcirebs. miznobrivi socialuri daxmareba kargad aRwevs<br />

Rarib moqalaqeebamde. msgavsi programebi Raribi ojaxebis Semosavlebs<br />

72%-iT zrdis, xolo ukiduresad Raribi mosaxleobis Semosavlebs<br />

_ 105%-iT<br />

`<br />

Cveni ekonomika 3.9%-iT Semcirda.<br />

2011 wels socialuri<br />

dacvis xarji daaxloebiT<br />

201 milioni lariT gaizarda<br />

da, saerTo jamSi, 1.5 miliardi<br />

lari Seadgina. aqedan<br />

`miuxedavad imisa, rom 2003-2007 wlis periodSi saqarTveloSi saSualo<br />

Semosavlebi gaizarda, qveyanaSi siRaribe ar Semcirebula, rasac<br />

bevri mizezi ganapirobebda. pirvel rigSi ki, is faqti, rom ekonomikuri<br />

da sajaro seqtoris yovlismomcvelma reformebma am periodSi ufro<br />

meti adamiani datova samsaxuris gareSe, vidre daasaqma; amasTanave,<br />

is seqtorebi, sadac Semosavlebis zrda dafiqsirda (mSenebloba, finansuri<br />

momsaxureba, samTo mrewveloba, sajaro samsaxuri), mTliani<br />

dasaqmebis Zalian mcire nawils warmoadgenen<br />

yvelaze naklebi – mTliani<br />

socialuri dacvis 0.7% –<br />

SezRuduli SesaZleblobebis<br />

mqone adamianebs xmardebaT,<br />

16% – socialurad daucv-<br />

22 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

el ojaxebsa da bavSvebs, 66.4%<br />

_ xandazmulTa socialur<br />

dacvas. 2011 wels, araklasificirebul<br />

saqmianobaze gaweuli<br />

danaxarjebi socialur<br />

sferoSi 251 milion<br />

lars Seadgens.<br />

`<br />

gamokvlevebi aCvenebs,<br />

rom siRaribis Semcirebaze<br />

yvelaze ukeT moqmedebs pensiebi<br />

da miznobrivi socialuri<br />

daxmarebebi. pensiebis<br />

gareSe, siRaribis<br />

maCvenebeli gaizrdeboda<br />

23.6%-dan<br />

32.9%-mde, xolo<br />

miznobrivi socialuri<br />

daxmarebebi<br />

da sxva socialuri<br />

servisebi siRaribes<br />

2%-iT amcirebs.<br />

miznobrivi socialuri<br />

daxmareba kargad aRwevs<br />

Rarib moqalaqeebamde. msgavsi<br />

programebi Raribi ojaxebis<br />

Semosavlebs 72%-iT<br />

zrdis, xolo ukiduresad Raribi<br />

mosaxleobis Semosavlebs<br />

_ 105%-iT.<br />

Tumca saqarTvelo-<br />

Si misi dafarvis<br />

areali mcirea. 2007<br />

wlis monacemebiT,<br />

arsebuli programebi<br />

Raribi mosaxleobis<br />

mxolod 19%s<br />

da ukiduresad Raribi<br />

mosaxleobis<br />

30%-s faravda. am<br />

monacemebidan gamomdinare,<br />

msoflio banki miiCnevs, rom<br />

Tu miznobrivi socialuri<br />

daxmareba gaswvdeba mTels<br />

Rarib da ukiduresad Rarib<br />

EBRD-ma somxeTis da azerbaijanis<br />

ekonomikuri prognozi gaauaresa,<br />

saqarTvelosi ki gazarda<br />

EBRD-is prognoziT, 2012 wels saqarTvelos ekonomika 5%-iT gaizrdeba.<br />

gasuli wlis oqtombris prognozis mixedviT, zrda mxolod 4%-s Seadgenda.<br />

`miuxedavad saerTaSoriso donori organizaciebis mxridan daxmarebis<br />

Semcirebisa, saqarTvelos mTavrobam SeZlo dafinansebis kerZo<br />

wyaroebis moZieba, aseve miiRo Sesabamisi sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebi~<br />

– aRniSnulia EBRD-is angariSSi.<br />

rac Seexeba saqarTvelos mezobel qveynebs, 2012 wels azerbaijanSi<br />

ekonomikuri zrda 3,5%-s (prognozi Semcirda 0,5%-iT), xolo somxeTSi<br />

3%-s (-0,5) Seadgens. EBRD-ma TurqeTisa da ruseTis prognozi ucvlelad<br />

_ 2,5%-isa da 4,2%-is doneze datova.<br />

zogadad, evrozonis savalo krizisis fonze, EBRD-i ganviTarebad<br />

qveynebSi zogadad ekonomikuri zrdis Senelebas prognozirebs, evrozonis<br />

krizisis damZimebis pirobebSi, misi gauaresebis perspeqtiviT.<br />

monacemebi EBRD-is 2012 wlis ianvris angariSSi _ `regionuli ekonomikuri<br />

perspeqtiva EBRD-is saoperacio qveynebSi~ (Regional Economic<br />

Prospects in EBRD Countries of Operations: January 2012) aris mocemuli.

mosaxleobas, siRaribe Ti-<br />

Tqmis orjer _ 23.6%-dan<br />

12%-mde Semcirdeba, xolo<br />

ukiduresi siRaribe TiTqmis<br />

samjer _ 9.3%-dan 2.9%mde.<br />

yvela ukiduresad Raribi<br />

moqalaqis dafarvis Sem-<br />

TxvevaSi, xarjebis gaizrdeba,<br />

mSp-is 0.4%-iT, xolo<br />

Raribi moqalaqeebis dafarvis<br />

SemTxvevaSi _ mSp-is<br />

1.1%-iT.<br />

garda amisa, `gaeros~<br />

bavSvTa fondis angariSis<br />

mixedviT, romelic gasuli<br />

wlis noembris bolos gamoqveynda,<br />

siRaribe saqarTvelos<br />

erT-erT umTavres gamowvevad<br />

rCeba. rogorc fondis<br />

angariSSia aRniSnuli,<br />

„ekonomikur zrdas saqarTveloSi,<br />

siRaribis farTomas-<br />

Stabiani Semcireba ar mohyolia~.<br />

„xSirad, siRaribe maTi<br />

mTeli cxovrebis manZilze<br />

grZeldeba. adreul asakSi<br />

siRaribem, SesaZloa, gamoiwvios<br />

xangrZlivi gonebrivi<br />

da fizikuri darRvevebi. zemoaRniSnuli<br />

garemoebebi ki,<br />

TavisTavad, ganapirobebs siRaribis<br />

momdevno TaobebisTvis<br />

gadacemis<br />

cikls. amdenad,<br />

bavSvTa keTild-<br />

ReobaSi investirebaumniSvnelovanesiakacobriobis<br />

Tanaswori da<br />

Tanamimdevruli<br />

ganviTarebis uzrunvelsayofad~,<br />

–<br />

naTqvamia gaeros bavSvTa<br />

fondis angariSSi saqarTvelos<br />

Sesaxeb.<br />

oficialuri monacemiT,<br />

2011 wlis aprilisTvis<br />

saqarTveloSi 145 665 ojaxi<br />

(mTliani mosaxleobis 12,4 %)<br />

yovelTviuri daxmarebebis<br />

saxiT fulad saarsebo minimums<br />

iRebda. yvelaze Rataki<br />

mosaxleobis umravlesoba ki,<br />

gaeros bavSvTa fondis axa-<br />

ekonomikuri politika<br />

li angariSis mixedviT, amJamad<br />

miznobriv socialur daxmarebas<br />

ar iRebs. imis miuxedavad,<br />

rom 2008 wels mTavrobam<br />

daamtkica programa „erTiani<br />

saqarTvelo siRaribis gareSe~,<br />

2008 wels siRaribis zRvars<br />

miRma myofi ojaxebisTvis<br />

Seiqmna samedicino dazRveva<br />

da miznobrivi socialuri<br />

daxmarebebi, „bavSvis ufleba-<br />

Ta komiteti kvlav SeSfoTebulia<br />

qveyanaSi farTod gavrcelebuli<br />

siRaribiTa da<br />

siduxWiriT da aRniSnavs, rom<br />

bevri bavSvis cxovrebis done<br />

Zalze dabalia.<br />

umwvavesi problemaa isic,<br />

rom umuSevarTa socialur<br />

dacvis muxli saqarTvelos<br />

socialuri dacvis funqcionalur<br />

ganawilebaSi saer-<br />

Tod ar aris Cadebuli. qveyanaSi<br />

umuSevarTa raodenoba<br />

ar iklebs, arc dasaqmebis<br />

politika atarebs aqtiur<br />

xasiaTs. maSin, roca specialistebi<br />

umZimesi socialuri<br />

`saqarTvelos mTavrobam pensiebisa da miznobrivi socialuri<br />

daxmarebis programebis meSveobiT, romlebic 2006 wlis meore naxevarSi<br />

waradgina, mniSvnelovani nabiji gadadga win. 2003-2007 wlebSi<br />

socialurad daucveli ojaxebis wliuri Semosavali gaizarda, Tumca<br />

am zrdaSi, iseve rogorc Cilesa da braziliis SemTxvevaSi, mniSvnelovani<br />

komponenti socialuri daxmareba iyo da ara dasaqmebisa<br />

da, Sesabamisad, Semosavlebis gazrdili maCvenebeli<br />

fonis mogvarebis erT-erT<br />

gzad saqarTveloSic samu-<br />

Sao kadrebis gadamzadebasa<br />

da biznes-unarebis gamomu-<br />

SavebaSi xedaven.<br />

1998 wlis Semdeg, umuSevrobis<br />

done saqarTveloSi<br />

gaizarda 12.4%-dan 16.3%-mde.<br />

Tumca, es oficialuri monacemebiT.<br />

araoficialuri<br />

maCveneblebi ki gacilebiT<br />

sagangaSoa. erovnul-demokra-<br />

`<br />

23

laTinuri amerika<br />

(siRaribeSi mcxorvebi mosaxleobis procentuli maCvenebeli)<br />

paragvai<br />

bolivia<br />

kolumbia<br />

ekvadori<br />

meqsika<br />

laTinuri<br />

amerika<br />

peru<br />

venesuela<br />

brazilia<br />

Cile<br />

`urugvai<br />

wyaro: ECLAC<br />

mniSvnelovania ara mxolod dasaqmebuli da umuSevari adamianebis<br />

raodenoba, aramed im adamianebis Semosavlebic, romelTa xelfasic<br />

saSualo minimumze dabalia. saqarTveloSi dasaqmebulTa 17.4%-i<br />

dReSi 1.25 aSS dolarze nakleb TanxiT cxovrobs. ganviTarebul qveynebSi<br />

Sesabamisi procentuli maCvenebeli nulis tolia, xolo postsabWoTa<br />

qveynebSi iseve, rogorc sxva ganviTarebad da naklebganvi-<br />

Tarebul qveynebSi, es mniSvnelovan problemas warmoadgens<br />

msoflios erT-erTi<br />

umsxvilesi auditoruli<br />

kompania saqarTveloSi<br />

oficialurad Semovida<br />

saqarTveloSi msoflios erT-erTi umsxvilesi auditoruli kompania<br />

oficialurad Semovida. saubaria inglisur „er es em-interneiSenalze~.<br />

auditoruli kompaniebis msoflio aTeulis wevri saqarTveloSi<br />

„kapto-jgufis~ partniori gaxda.<br />

„er es emi~ bazarze gasuli saukunis 60-iani wlebidan moRvaweobs.<br />

kompaniis Stab-bina londonSia. dReisTvis „er es emi~ 83-ze met<br />

qveyanaSi 714 auditorul da konsaltingur kompanias aerTianebs. organizaciaSi<br />

32 aTasze meti specialisti, maT Soris, 3113 partniori<br />

muSaobs.<br />

rac Seexeba „kapto-jgufs~, igi 2008 Seiqmna da dReisTvis qarTuli<br />

auditoruli kompaniebis reitingis aTeulSia. rogorc kompaniaSi acxadeben,<br />

momdevno Tvidan rebrendings iwyeben da saerTaSoriso<br />

auditis bazarze aqtiurad gasvlas gegmaven.<br />

24 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

`<br />

tiuli institutis (NDI) mier<br />

Catarebuli kvlevis Tanaxmad,<br />

16,161 gamokiTxulidan<br />

67% respondenti Tavs umu-<br />

Sevrad Tvlis. 2011 wlis seqtemberSi<br />

gamovlenili Sedegebis<br />

mixedviT, mosaxleobis<br />

62%-s umuSevroba qveynis nomer<br />

pirvel problemad miaCnia.<br />

kidev erTi sakiTxi, romelsac<br />

ekonomistebi gansakuTrebul<br />

yuradRebas<br />

aqceven, Sromisunarian umuSevarTa<br />

ganaTlebis donea.<br />

rogorc braziliisa da<br />

Ciles magaliTebis ganxilvam<br />

gvaCvena, kadrebis gadamzadeba<br />

da ganaTlebis<br />

xarisxis gaumjobeseba, siRaribesa<br />

da umuSevrobasTan<br />

brZolis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi<br />

meTodia. saqarTveloSi<br />

umuSevarTa 81%-s sa-<br />

Sualo an umaRlesi ganaTleba<br />

aqvs miRebuli. rac<br />

imas imas, rom ga-<br />

naTlebulisamuSao Zala gamouyenebelia<br />

da mas<br />

qveynis ekonomikis<br />

funqcionirebaSi<br />

wvlili ver Seaqvs.<br />

amave dros, msofliokonkurentulobis<br />

angariSis<br />

mixedviT (2011-2012 wlebi),<br />

qveyanaSi biznesis keTebis<br />

mTavari xelisSemSleli<br />

faqtori araadeqvaturi gana-<br />

Tlebis mqone samuSao Zalaa.<br />

es arcaa gasakviri, gardamavali<br />

ekonomikis mqone<br />

qveynebis umetesoba, egreT<br />

wodebul, „struqturul<br />

umuSevrobas~ ganicdis. am<br />

tipis umuSevroba grZelvadiani<br />

umuSevrobaa, rac, ZiriTadad,<br />

gamowveulia muSaxelis<br />

unar-Cvevebis SeusabamobiT<br />

bazarze arsebul samuSaosTan.<br />

anu arsebobs didi<br />

„Seusabamoba~ damsaqmeblebis<br />

saWiroebebsa da im<br />

unar-Cvevebs Soris, romlebsac<br />

potenciuri muSaxeli<br />

sTavazobs.

siRaribe, uTanasworoba da gadanawileba<br />

mosaxleoba, romelic cxovrobs saSualo<br />

Semosavlis 50%-ze naklebi SemosavlebiT,<br />

2009 w.<br />

brazilia*<br />

meqsika<br />

Cile<br />

aSS<br />

iaponia<br />

samx. korea<br />

avstralia<br />

espaneTi<br />

kanada<br />

britaneTi<br />

saberZneTi<br />

germania<br />

SvedeTi<br />

safrangeTi<br />

wyaroebi: OECD; United Nations ECLAC<br />

amasTanave, mniSvnelovania<br />

ara mxolod dasaqmebuli<br />

da umuSevari adamianebis<br />

raodenoba, aramed im adamianebis<br />

Semosavlebic, romelTa<br />

xelfasic saSualo<br />

minimumze dabalia. saqarTveloSi<br />

dasaqmebulTa 17.4%-i<br />

dReSi 1.25 aSS dolarze nakleb<br />

TanxiT cxovrobs. ganviTarebul<br />

qveynebSi Sesabamisi<br />

procentuli maCvenebeli<br />

nulis tolia, xolo<br />

post-sabWoTa qveynebSi iseve,<br />

rogorc sxva ga-<br />

nviTarebad da naklebganviTarebul<br />

qveynebSi, es<br />

mniSvnelovan problemaswarmoadgens.<br />

SeiZleba davaskvnaT,<br />

rom saqar-<br />

TveloSi biznesis<br />

`1998 wlis Semdeg, umuSevrobis done saqarTveloSi gaizarda<br />

12.4%-dan 16.3%-mde. Tumca, es oficialuri monacemebiT. araoficialuri<br />

maCveneblebi ki gacilebiT sagangaSoa. erovnuldemokratiuli<br />

institutis (NDI) mier Catarebuli kvlevis Tanaxmad,<br />

16,161 gamokiTxulidan 67% respondenti Tavs umuSevrad Tvlis.<br />

2011 wlis seqtemberSi gamovlenili Sedegebis mixedviT,<br />

mosaxleobis 62%-s umuSevroba qveynis nomer pirvel problemad<br />

miaCnia<br />

`<br />

ekonomikuri politika<br />

gadasaxadebsa<br />

da fulad<br />

transferebamde<br />

gadasaxadebisa<br />

da fuladi<br />

transferebis<br />

Semdeg<br />

jinis indeqsi: 0=sruli Tanasworoba da<br />

1=sruli uTanasworoba, 2009.<br />

gadasaxadebisa da fuladi<br />

transferebis ganxorcielebamde<br />

monacemebi miuwvdomelia<br />

keTebis erT-erTi ZiriTadi xelisSemSleli faqtori, finansebis<br />

xelmisawvdomobisa da inflaciis paralelurad,<br />

araadeqvaturi ganaTlebis mqone muSaxelia. amitom saqarTvelos<br />

mTavrobam da sxva Sesabamisma uwyebebma unda<br />

scadon am SezRudvebis aRmofxvra, raTa mewarmeoba swrafad<br />

ganviTardes. gansakuTrebul yuradRebas moiTxovs<br />

ganaTlebis sferos ganviTareba. saWiroa iseTi reformebis<br />

gatareba ganaTlebis seqtorSi, rogorebicaa ganaTlebis<br />

standartebis modernizacia, dawyebiTi da saSualo<br />

ganaTlebis sayovelTao uzrunvelyofa, umaRlesi<br />

ganaTlebis xarisxis gaumjobeseba da organizaciebisTvis<br />

daxmarebis gaweva maTi TanamSromlebis gadamzadebaSi,<br />

raTa isini axlandeli bazris moTxovnebs<br />

ukeT Seesabamebodnen.<br />

25

ogor vicxovrebT<br />

2012 wels<br />

y<br />

vela prognozis mixedviT,<br />

msoflios sakmaod<br />

rTuli weli daudga.<br />

saerTaSoriso vaWrobis gafarToebam<br />

da komunikaciebis<br />

ganviTarebam samyaro erT<br />

mTlian organizmad aqcia.<br />

dedamiwis nebismier wertil-<br />

Si ganviTarebuli movlenebi<br />

adre Tu gvian yvela qveyanaSi<br />

asaxvas hpovebs. evrozonis<br />

krizisis, wamyvani<br />

ekonomikis mqone qveynebis<br />

dakarguli reitingebis, totaluri<br />

sabiujeto xarjebis<br />

Semcirebis pirobebSi<br />

cxovrebis Sedegebi Cvens<br />

sazRvrebamdec moaRwevs. amis<br />

gamo mniSvnelovania vicodeT,<br />

romel valutaSi SevinaxoT<br />

danazogi, rogoria<br />

maTi kursebis prognozi, ra<br />

elis sanedleulo bazrebs,<br />

rogori iqneba sasursaTo<br />

fasebi da saerTod, rogor<br />

vicxovrebT 2012 wels.<br />

evrokavSiris savalo<br />

krizisma valutebis Tema gan-<br />

`<br />

sakuTrebiT aqtualuri gaxda.<br />

evro, romelic bolo<br />

eqspertTa nawilis metad aqtualur kiTxvaze, romel valutaSi<br />

jobs fulis Senaxva _ standartuli pasuxi aqvs _ moklevadian<br />

periodSi, adamianma danazogi unda Seinaxos im valutaSi, romel-<br />

Sic mis daxarjvas apirebs. ufro didi xniT Tu apirebs fulis<br />

Senaxvas, yvelaze stabiluri Sveicaruli frankia<br />

wlebSi stabilurad imyarebda<br />

poziciebs msoflioSi,<br />

bolo periodSi saerTod<br />

gauqmebis safrTxis winaSea.<br />

dRes msoflios ekonomikur<br />

da politikur wreebSi yvelaze<br />

aqtualuri kiTxvebi<br />

evrokavSirsa da mis valutas<br />

ukavSirdeba. gaiyofa Tu<br />

ara evrokavSiri or nawilad<br />

_ mdidar CrdiloeTad da<br />

26 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

Rarib samxreTad? ra bedi elis evros?<br />

evropaSi ganviTarebuli movlenebis gamo, 6 Tvis ganmavlobaSi<br />

evros TviTRirebuleba 10%-iT Semcirda. eqspertebi<br />

fiqroben, rom am qveynebSi sabiujeto deficitis Sesamcireblad<br />

saukeTeso gamosavali, evrozonis farglebs miRma<br />

eqsportis moculobis zrdaa. logikuria, rom, rac ufro<br />

swrafad gagrZeldeba evros gaiafeba, miT ufro swrafad<br />

iqneba SesaZlebeli<br />

iseTi qveynebis<br />

ekonomikuri vi-<br />

Tarebis gamosworeba,<br />

rogoric italia,<br />

espaneTi da safrangeTia.<br />

rac imas<br />

niSnavs, rom evro<br />

`msxverplad~ unda Seewiros msxvili ekonomikebis gadarCenis<br />

saqmes.<br />

saberZneTi isev defoltis zRvarzea. 2011 wlis dekemberSi<br />

qveyana defolts ukve gadaurCa, evrokavSirisa da savaluto<br />

fondis 8-miliardiani daxmarebis saSualebiT. Tumca es<br />

sakmarisi ar aRmoCnda da morigi tranSisTvis aTens kvlavac<br />

mkacri ekonomikuri politikis gatarebas sTxoven. problemebia<br />

belgiaSi da espaneTSi, sadac umuSevroba Sromisunariani<br />

mosaxleobis 22%-s aWarbebs, italia mSp-is 0,5%-iT<br />

Semcirebas elodeba. jerjerobiT, myaria germaniis ekonomika,<br />

qveyanaSi dasaqmebis done rekordul maCvenebels aRwevs,<br />

`

Tumca wleuls eqspertebi sirTuleebs<br />

germaniaSic elian.<br />

amis fonze britaneli<br />

eqspertebi, romlebic evrozonas<br />

Tavidanve skeptikurad<br />

uyurebdnen, miiCneven, rom misi<br />

daSla gardauvalia. gavleniani<br />

britanuli ekonomikuri<br />

da analitikuri centris<br />

prognoziT, mimdinare weli<br />

evrozonisTvis ukiduresad<br />

mZime iqneba da misi daSlis<br />

tendencia kidev ufro daCqardeba,<br />

aTi wlis Semdeg<br />

evro aRar iarsebebs, 2012<br />

weli ki am procesis dasawyisi<br />

iqneba, mas Semdeg, rac<br />

evrozonas saberZneTi da<br />

italia datoveben.<br />

evrozonis SesaZlo daSla<br />

daasaxela 2012 wlis<br />

mTavar geopolitikur riskad<br />

iaponurma sainvesticio bankma<br />

`nomuram~. magram eqspertTa<br />

umravlesobis SefasebiT,<br />

evro politikuri poreqtia<br />

da mis gauqmebas evropeli<br />

liderebi arafriT dauSveben.<br />

germania da safrange-<br />

Ti cdiloben, evrokavSiris<br />

qveynebi maT mier SeTavazebul<br />

sabiujeto disciplinaze<br />

daiyolion da evrozona<br />

gadaarCinon.<br />

ra gavlena SeiZleba<br />

iqonios evrozonaSimimdinare<br />

krizisma saqarTveloze<br />

da<br />

laris kursze? rodesac<br />

evros SesaZlo<br />

gauqmebaze,<br />

an gaufasurebaze<br />

keTdeba gancxadebebi,<br />

cxadia, bevrs ainteresebs,<br />

Rirs Tu ara danazogebis<br />

evroSi Senaxva.<br />

saqarTveloSi `popularuli~<br />

ucxouri valuta yovelTvis<br />

dolari iyo, maSinac<br />

ki, roca evro myardeboda<br />

dolaris mimarT. aseT pirobebSi<br />

ki, roca evros bedi<br />

bewvze hkidia, momxmareblebis<br />

danazogebis evroSi Senaxvas<br />

moeridebian. CvenTan yvela operacia dolarSi xorcieldeba<br />

da evro ZiriTadi valuta ar aris, Tumca Tu evrozonaSi cudi<br />

viTareba iqneba, es niSnavs, rom Cven eqsport-importis TvalsazrisiT<br />

problemebi Segveqneba. Cveni eqsportis 25% evropaSi<br />

gadis da Tu `beber kontinentze~ problemebi gagrZeldeba,<br />

Cveni eqsporti bunebrivad Semcirdeba. es ki Cvens mTlian<br />

Sida produqts<br />

Seamcirebs. saqar-<br />

Tvelodan eqsporti<br />

TiTqmis samjer<br />

Camouvardeba<br />

qveyanaSi importirebuliproduqtis<br />

odenobas.<br />

amis gamo Cven<br />

qveyanaSi mudmivi<br />

savaWro deficitia.<br />

2011 wlis monacemebiT,uaryofiTma<br />

savaWro<br />

saldom TiTqmis<br />

oTxi miliardi<br />

aSS dolari Seadgina.<br />

es deficiti<br />

sxva dafinansebis<br />

wyaroebTan erTad,<br />

ucxoeTidan, sam-<br />

`gansakuTrebiT saintereso da mniSvnelovani ki, cxadia, navTobis<br />

fasis cvlilebasTan dakavSirebuli prognozebia. am mxriv,<br />

analitikosTa mosazrebebi faqtobrivad erTmaneTs emTxveva. maTi<br />

umravlesoba miiCnevs, rom 2012 wlis pirvel naxevarSi `Savi oqro~<br />

cotaTi gaiafdeba. amis mizezi kvlavindeburad moTxovnilebis<br />

kleba iqneba. SemdgomSi ki, iranTan dakavSirebuli problemebis<br />

gamo navTobi gaZvirdeba, Tumca, savaraudod, 130 dolari/barels ar<br />

ascdeba<br />

`<br />

bazris mimoxilva<br />

zurab gvasalia:<br />

jobs, rom<br />

danazogebi<br />

larSi Seinaxo<br />

uSaod wasuli qarTvelebis fuladi gzavnilebiT ifareba,<br />

romelic, saerTo jamSi, miliards utoldeba. yovelive aqedan<br />

gamomdinare, Zalian logikurad JRers kiTxva _ aisaxeba Tu<br />

ara evrozonis krizisi qarTul larze?<br />

saqarTvelos bankebis asociaciis prezidentis, zurab<br />

gvasalias prognoziT, evrozonis krizisi larze ar ai-<br />

saxeba da mosaxleobas urCevs, danazogebi larSi gaakeTon,<br />

vinaidan savaluto riskebs ase ufro aicileben Tavidan.<br />

gvasalias SefasebiT, savaluto riskebis Tavidan acilebis<br />

garanti erovnuli bankis rezervebi da is politikaa, romelsac<br />

qveynis centraluri banki atarebs. `saqarTveloSi dRes<br />

sakmaod maRalia dolarizaciis maCvenebeli. es erTgvari<br />

problemac ki aris qveynisTvis. rodesac Semosavlebi lar-<br />

Si gaqvs, angariSsworebas larSi axden da gadasaxadebsac<br />

larSi ixdi, jobs, rom danazogebic larSi Seinaxo~, _ acxadebs<br />

gvasalia.<br />

eqspertTa nawilis metad aqtualur kiTxvaze, romel<br />

27

28 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

Joze graciano<br />

da silva<br />

valutaSi jobs<br />

fulis Senaxva _<br />

standartuli pasuxi<br />

aqvs _ moklevadianperiodSi,<br />

adamianma<br />

danazogi unda<br />

Seinaxos im valutaSi,<br />

romel-<br />

Sic mis daxarjvas<br />

apirebs. ufro<br />

didi xniT<br />

Tu apirebs fulis<br />

Senaxvas, yvelaze<br />

stabiluri<br />

Sveicaruli frankia.<br />

meore nawili<br />

ki msurvelebs<br />

danazogis gakeTebasa<br />

da fulis<br />

dabandebas<br />

dolarSi urCevs.<br />

maTi SefasebiT,<br />

evrozonis krizisis fonze, rodesac evrokavSiris wevri<br />

qveynebi evros SenarCunebasa da stabilizaciisTvis ibr-<br />

Zvian, evropuli valuta danazogisTvis saukeTeso arCevani<br />

ar aris. dagegmili saparlamento da saprezidento arCevnebis<br />

fonze arc larSi dabandebebia mizanSewonili, radgan, politikurad<br />

aqtiur periods yovelTvis Tan axlavs savaluto<br />

kursis mcire ryevebi mainc. aqedan gamomdinare, eqsperteTa<br />

nawilis SefasebiT, 2012 wels yvelaze saimedo valutis<br />

statuss amerikuli dolari miiRebs.<br />

sursaTis fasebi<br />

valutebis meryeobis garda,<br />

kidev erTi mniSvnelovani<br />

Temaa nedleulisa<br />

da produqciis fasebi. mimdinare<br />

wels Zalian mni-<br />

Svnelovani iqneba nedleulis<br />

bazrebze arsebuli vi-<br />

Tareba. eqspertTa SefasebiT,<br />

poziciaTa umravlesobaze<br />

fasis klebaa mosalodneli,<br />

risi mizezic evropuli krizisis<br />

gamo nedleulze moTxovnilebis<br />

Semcirebaa. evropeli<br />

momxmareblis mier<br />

sxvadasxva saqonelze mo-<br />

Txovnilebis kleba, mniSvnelovan<br />

gavlenas axdens<br />

iseTi eqsportiorebis aqtiurobaze,<br />

rogoric CineTia.<br />

am ukanasknelis warmoebis<br />

tempis Semcireba 2012 wlis<br />

globaluri ekonomikis erTerTi<br />

problema iqneba, iseve<br />

rogorc sxva ganviTarebadi,<br />

eqsportze orientirebuli<br />

qveynebis.<br />

2012 wels analitikosebi<br />

bazrebze arabunebriv<br />

gadaxrebs varaudoben. jerjerobiT,<br />

Zneli saTqmelia,<br />

romeli nedleuli gaZvirdeba<br />

da romeli ara. am Tval-<br />

xili gaiafda, xorcproduqtebi gaZvirda<br />

2012 wlis ianvarSi 2011 wlis ianvarTan SedarebiT<br />

inflaciis donem saqarTveloSi 0,5 procenti<br />

Seadgina. fasebis mniSvnelovani mateba dafiqsirda<br />

satransporto momsaxurebis qvejgufze (21,2 procenti),<br />

piradi satransporto saSualebebis eqsploataciis<br />

qvejgufze (9,1 procenti).<br />

sacxovrebelze, wyalze, eleqtroenergiasa da airze<br />

fasebi gaizarda 2.7 procentiT. sursaTisa da ualkoholo<br />

sasmelebze mocemul periodSi fasebi Semcirda<br />

1,6 procentiT. fasebis klebis maRali maCveneblebi<br />

dafiqsirda Semdeg qvejgufebze: xili da yurZeni<br />

(29 procenti), bostneuli, baRCeuli, kartofili da<br />

sxva bolqvovanebi (16,5 procenti), Saqari da sxva<br />

tkbileuli (7,2 procenti).<br />

fasebi gaizarda xorcis da xorcproduqtebis<br />

qvejgufze (23,9 procenti), rZe, yveli da kvercxis<br />

qvejgufze (6,8 procenti). 2012 wlis ianvarSi 2011<br />

wlis ianvarTan SedarebiT fasebis 7,7 procentiani<br />

kleba dafiqsirda kavSirgabmulobis<br />

jgufze.

sazrisiT, mosazrebebi Zalian<br />

mravalferovania. magaliTad,<br />

analitikosTa did<br />

nawili miiCnevs, rom spilenZi<br />

gaZvirdeba, alumini<br />

ki gaiafdeba.<br />

gansakuTrebiT saintereso<br />

da mniSvnelovani ki, cxadia,<br />

navTobis fasis cvlilebasTan<br />

dakavSirebuli prognozebia.<br />

am mxriv,<br />

analitikosTa mosazrebebifaqtobrivad<br />

erTmaneTs<br />

emTxveva. maTi umravlesobamiiCnevs,<br />

rom 2012 wlis<br />

pirvel naxevarSi<br />

`Savi oqro~ cotaTi<br />

gaiafdeba.<br />

amis mizezi kvlavindeburad<br />

moTxovnilebis<br />

kleba iqneba. SemdgomSi ki,<br />

iranTan dakavSirebuli<br />

problemebis gamo navTobi<br />

gaZvirdeba, Tumca, savaraudod,<br />

130 dolari/barels ar ascdeba.<br />

eqspertTa SefasebiT,<br />

evrozonis krizisi produqciis<br />

fasebze saqarTvelo-<br />

Sic aucileblad aisaxeba.<br />

jerjerobiT, evrozonis krizisis<br />

gamo evropuli produqciis<br />

saeqsporto fasebi ar<br />

Semcirebula, Tumca unda vivaraudoT,<br />

rom wlis ganmavlobaSi<br />

es aucileblad moxdeba.<br />

bolo 10 wlis ganmavlobaSi,<br />

evropis eqsporti,<br />

evros maRali kursis gamo,<br />

dolaris saeqsporto qveynebTan<br />

SedarebiT, arakonkurentuli<br />

iyo. Tumca<br />

viTareba Seicvala. is produqti,<br />

romlis eqsporti evropidan<br />

evroSi xorcieldeba,<br />

evros kursis cvlilebasTan<br />

erTad, ra Tqma unda, gaiafdeba<br />

da ufro konkurentunariani<br />

gaxdeba. aRsaniSnavia,<br />

isic, rom evropis qveynebs<br />

aqvT umZlavresi da sakmaod<br />

mdgradi ekonomika da Sida<br />

moxmarebis Zalian maRali<br />

kultura. ris gamoc, Sida<br />

moxmarebaze evropaSi mimdinare<br />

procesebi mtkivneulad<br />

jer ar asaxula. magaliTad,<br />

evrozonis davalianebis<br />

krizisis miuxedavad,<br />

germaniis samomxmareblo<br />

ganwyobebi gacilebiT uke-<br />

Tesia, vidre gasul wels iyo.<br />

rogorc samomxmareblo<br />

`gaeros soflis meurneobis da sursaTis organizaciis xelmZRvanelis<br />

Joze graciano da silvas gancxadebiT, sasursaTo bazrebze<br />

ryeva gagrZeldeba da ekonomikuri arastabilurobis gamo sul<br />

ufro meti adamiani dadgeba SimSilis safrTxis winaSe. gaeros<br />

maRalCinosnis ganmartebiT, fasebi ise mkveTrad aRar gaizrdeba,<br />

rogorc bolo ori weli xdeba, Tumca arc daiklebs. SesaZlebelia<br />

mxolod umniSvnelo, moklevadiani Semcireba saqonlis calkeul<br />

jgufebze<br />

`<br />

moTxovnis kvlevis sazogadoebis<br />

(GfK) monacemebSia<br />

naTqvami, ianvarSi Sesabamisi<br />

jamuri indeqsi 0,2 punqtiT,<br />

5,9 niSnulamde gaizarda.<br />

ukeTesi samomxmareblo<br />

klimati qveyanaSi bolos<br />

2011 wlis martSi dafiqsirda.<br />

GfK-s eqspertis ralf<br />

bazris mimoxilva<br />

biurklis gancxadebiT, germaneli<br />

momxmarebeli jiutad<br />

ewinaaRmdegeba koniunqturuli<br />

riskebis zrdas da evropaSi<br />

mzard kriziss. specialisti<br />

yuradRebas amaxvilebs<br />

imaze, rom adamianebs msxvili<br />

SenaZenebisken aqvT midrekileba<br />

da sakuTari Semosavlebis<br />

zrdis perspeqtivebs<br />

optimisturad uyureben. zrdis<br />

mTavar mizezad eqsperti<br />

Sromis bazarze gamokve-<br />

Til dadebiT tendenciebs<br />

da samsaxuris dakargvis Si-<br />

Sis Sesustebas asaxelebs.<br />

gasaTvaliswinebelia sabanko<br />

procentis rekordulad<br />

dabali maCvenebeli da finansuri<br />

bazrebis mimarT mo-<br />

2011 wels Saqris importi<br />

21%-iT gaizarda<br />

saqarTveloSi 2011 wels 89,8<br />

milioni dolaris Rirebulebis<br />

Saqris importi ganxorcielda, rac<br />

21%-iT aRemateba gasuli wlis monacemebs.<br />

gazrdil RirebulebaSi<br />

2011 da 2010 wels msoflio bazarze<br />

gazrdilma fasebmac moaxdina gavlena.<br />

saqarTveloSi Saqris imports mxolod<br />

erTi kompania, Turqul-azerbaijanuli<br />

`qualiTi Sugari~ axorcielebs.<br />

adgilobrivi Saqris erTaderTi<br />

mwarmoebeli, agaris qarxana<br />

ki 2008 wlis Semdeg gaCerebulia.<br />

saqarTveloSi Saqris importi, Ziri-<br />

Tadad, braziliidan da azerbaijanidan<br />

xorcieldeba.<br />

29

mxmareblis undobloba. am<br />

faqtorebis gamo adamianebs<br />

fulis bankSi Setanas ZviradRirebuli<br />

nivTebis SeZena<br />

urCevniaT.<br />

amitomac, eqspertTa Se-<br />

fasebiT, fasebis kleba ar<br />

moxdeba dReebis da arc kvirebis<br />

ganmavlobaSi, magram<br />

zafxulisaTvis fasebi evropul<br />

produqciaze aucileblad<br />

gadaixedeba. saqarTveloSi<br />

pirvel rigSi, es<br />

cvlileba evropidan Semo-<br />

suli avtomobilebis fasze<br />

aisaxeba.<br />

saqarTvelos xelisufleba<br />

mimdinare wels 6%-ian<br />

inflacias varaudobs. gasuli<br />

wlis inflacia oficialuri<br />

statistikis mixedviT,<br />

8,5% iyo. 2011 wlis martidan<br />

fasebis zrda jer sasursaTo<br />

produqtebidan daiwyo,<br />

Semdeg transportze<br />

aisaxa. inflaciis maCvenebl-<br />

30 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

ma piks _ 14.5%-s maisSi miaRwia.<br />

Tumca, „saqstatis~ monacemebiT,<br />

ukve maisidan klebadi<br />

tendencia dafiqsirda.<br />

mTlianobaSi weli erTniSna<br />

inflaciiT dasrulda.<br />

2011 wlis dekemberSi<br />

noemberTan SedarebiT inflaciis<br />

donem 0,6% Seadgina.<br />

statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris<br />

informaciiT, aRniSnul<br />

periodSi sursaTisa da<br />

ualkoholo sasmelebis<br />

jgufis fasebi 1,5%-iT<br />

`bolo 10 wlis ganmavlobaSi, evropis eqsporti, evros maRali kursis<br />

gamo, dolaris saeqsporto qveynebTan SedarebiT, arakonkurentuli<br />

iyo. Tumca viTareba Seicvala. is produqti, romlis eqsporti<br />

evropidan evroSi xorcieldeba, evros kursis cvlilebasTan erTad,<br />

ra Tqma unda, gaiafdeba da ufro konkurentunariani gaxdeba. aRsani-<br />

Snavia, isic, rom evropis qveynebs aqvT umZlavresi da sakmaod mdgradi<br />

ekonomika da Sida moxmarebis Zalian maRali kultura<br />

`<br />

gaizarda da dekembris inflaciaSi<br />

misma wvlilma<br />

0,66% Seadgina. erTi Tvis<br />

ganmavlobaSi fasebis mniSvnelovani<br />

zrda bostneulze,<br />

baRCeulze, kartofilisa da<br />

sxva bolqvovanebze (9,6%),<br />

Tevzeulze (2,8%), rZeze, yvelsa<br />

da kvercxze (2%) aRiricxa.<br />

2011 wlis dekember-<br />

Si, noemberTan SedarebiT,<br />

fasebi mniSvnelovnad Sem-<br />

cirda Saqarsa da tkbileulze<br />

(4,3%) da pursa da purproduqtebze<br />

(0,9%). qarTul<br />

bazarze purproduqtebis gaiafeba<br />

2012 welsacaa mosalodneli.<br />

pur-produqtebis<br />

asociaciis warmomadgenel-<br />

Ta gancxadebiT, mimdinare<br />

wels qarTul bazarze purproduqtebis<br />

fasebi Semcirdeba.<br />

amis Tqmis safuZvels<br />

asociacias wlis dasawyisidan<br />

fqvilis fasis kleba<br />

aZlevs. erTi tomara fqvilis<br />

Rirebuleba 40-dan 31<br />

laramde Semcirda. gasul<br />

welTan SedarebiT mosavlis<br />

mxrivac ukeTesi prognozebi<br />

keTdeba, rac, purproduqtebis<br />

TviTRirebulebazec<br />

aisaxeba.<br />

rac Seexeba 2012 wlis<br />

inflaciis 6%-ian prognozs,<br />

igi saqarTveloSi keTdeba<br />

im fonze, rodesac gaero 2012<br />

wels kvebis produqtebis<br />

umniSvnelo gaiafebas varaudobs.<br />

gaeros soflis meurneobis<br />

da sursaTis organizaciis<br />

xelmZRvanelis<br />

Joze graciano da silvas<br />

gancxadebiT, sasursaTo bazrebze<br />

ryeva gagrZeldeba da<br />

ekonomikuri arastabilurobis<br />

gamo sul ufro meti adamiani<br />

dadgeba Sim-<br />

Silis safrTxis<br />

winaSe.<br />

gaeros maRal-<br />

Cinosnis ganmartebiT,<br />

fasebi ise<br />

mkveTrad aRar gaizrdeba,<br />

rogorc<br />

bolo ori weli<br />

xdeba, Tumca arc<br />

daiklebs. SesaZlebelia mxolod<br />

umniSvnelo, moklevadiani<br />

Semcireba saqonlis<br />

calkeul jgufebze. SegaxsenebT,<br />

rom sursaTze msoflio<br />

fasebi 2011 wlis TebervalSi<br />

mkveTrad gaizarda,<br />

ramac inflaciis stimulireba<br />

gamoiwvia. Sedegad, Seqmna<br />

idealuri klimati sazogadoebis<br />

ukmayofilebis da „arabuli<br />

gazafxulisTvis~.

zafxulSi tailandis xelisuflebam,<br />

romelic msoflio<br />

bazris brinjiT erTerTi<br />

mTavari mommaragebelia,<br />

ganacxada, rom wlis bolomde,<br />

am produqtis fasi<br />

SesaZloa 56%-iT gaizardos.<br />

tailandis pirveli qaliprezidentis,<br />

iinglak Cinavatis<br />

arCevis Semdeg, bazarze<br />

meore jgufis tailanduri<br />

brinjis fasma 7,3%iT<br />

moimata da erT tonaze<br />

519 dolari Seadgina. tailanduri<br />

brinji msoflio<br />

eqsportis 30%-s Seadgens.<br />

msoflio bankis mier gakeTebuli<br />

angariSis Tanaxmad,<br />

2011 wels, sursaTis msoflio<br />

fasebma 36%-iT moimata.<br />

simindis fasi 74%-iT<br />

gaizarda, xolo marcvleulis<br />

_ 69%-iT.<br />

2011 wlis dasawyisSi sursaTze<br />

fasebma istoriul maqsimums<br />

miaRwia, ramac saerTa-<br />

Soriso eqspertTa gancxadebiT,<br />

2008 wlis „sasursaTo<br />

krizisis~ ganmeorebis safrTxe<br />

Seqmna. msoflioSi bur-<br />

Rulze fasebi<br />

gasuli wlis aprilis<br />

bolosTvis<br />

saSualod 71%-iT<br />

gaizarda, rac<br />

samjer metia 10<br />

wlis winandel<br />

fasebze. popularul<br />

britanul<br />

gamocema The Guardian-sTan<br />

interviu-<br />

Si gaeros sasursaTo<br />

saagentos ufrosi ekonomisti<br />

acxadebda, rom Tuki<br />

uaxloes periodSi evropaSi<br />

naleqi ar movida, mimdinare<br />

wlis ivnisSi sakveb produqtebze<br />

fasebi agresiulad<br />

gaizrdeba. misi ganmartebiT,<br />

gansakuTrebuli safrTxe emuqreboda<br />

ganviTarebad qveynebs,<br />

sadac sasursaTo inflacias<br />

SesaZloa aRSfoTebuli moqalaqeebis<br />

masobrivi protesti<br />

gamoewvia.<br />

bazris mimoxilva<br />

es `naleqi~ evrozonis da Semdeg ukve mTeli msolios<br />

ekonomikuri krizisi aRmoCnda. evropuli valebis krizisma<br />

msoflio ekonomikis zrdisa da sursaTis fasebis zrdis<br />

damuxruWeba ganapiroba.<br />

msoflioSi sakvebis fasi gasuli wlis dekemberSi 2.4%-<br />

iT Semcirda. gaeros sursaTisa da soflis meurneobis organizaciis<br />

angariSis mixedviT, fasebis Semcireba marcvleulis<br />

maRalma mosavlianobam da masze SedarebiT naklebma moTxovnam<br />

gamoiwvia, aseve, erT-erTi mizezia Saqrisa da zeTis<br />

Rirebulebis Semcirebac.<br />

`2011 wlis dasawyisSi sursaTze fasebma istoriul maqsimums miaRwia,<br />

ramac saerTaSoriso eqspertTa gancxadebiT, 2008 wlis „sasursaTo<br />

krizisis~ ganmeorebis safrTxe Seqmna. msoflioSi bur-<br />

Rulze fasebi gasuli wlis aprilis bolosTvis saSualod 71%-iT<br />

gaizarda, rac samjer metia 10 wlis winandel fasebze. popularul<br />

britanul gamocema The uardian-sTan interviuSi gaeros sasursa-<br />

To saagentos ufrosi ekonomisti acxadebda, rom Tuki uaxloes<br />

periodSi evropaSi naleqi ar movida, mimdinare wlis ivnisSi<br />

sakveb produqtebze fasebi agresiulad gaizrdeba<br />

`<br />

evropuli krizisi msoflioSi kakaos fasebzec aisaxa.<br />

fasi produqtze 42%-iT Semcirda, rac 2008 wlis dekembris<br />

Semdeg minamluri maCvenebelia. Sokoladis umsxvilesma mwarmoebleba<br />

evropaSi nedleulis Sesyidva minimumamde Seamcires,<br />

rac, Tavis mxriv, gayidvebis mosalodnel Semcirebas ukav-<br />

Sirdeba. kakaos marcvalze fasebis dacemas afrikaSi maRalma<br />

mosavlmac Seuwyo xeli.<br />

gaerTianebuli erebis sursaTisa da soflis meurneobis<br />

organizaciis eqspertTa gancxadebiT, globalur ekonomikaSi<br />

mimdinare cvlilebebis, bazarze fulis arasaxarbielo<br />

moZraobisa da energiis gamoyenebis Sedegebis gaTvaliswinebiT,<br />

samomavlod msoflioSi sakvebis fasis gansazRvra<br />

rTulia.<br />

31

` `<br />

ratom aweven bankebi<br />

saprocento ganakveTebs<br />

maka<br />

RaniaSvili<br />

d<br />

ReisaTvis qarTul<br />

ekonomikaSi yvelaze<br />

dinamiurad ganviTarebad<br />

sferod kvlav sabanko seqtori<br />

rCeba. eqspertTa SefasebiT,<br />

omis Semdgom Seqmnil<br />

mZime viTarebas bankebma<br />

warmatebiT gaarTves Tavi<br />

da ar aris gamoricxuli,<br />

momdevno ramdenime weliwadi<br />

sabanko sfero kvlav<br />

liderad darCes qarTul<br />

ekonomikaSi. am droisTvis<br />

seqtoris momgebianoba daaxloebiT<br />

300 milionia. ris<br />

xarjze aRweven bankebi am<br />

maCvenebels?<br />

eqspertTa nawilis SefasebiT,<br />

maRali saprocento<br />

ganakveTebi qarTuli bankebis<br />

Semosavlebis umTavresi<br />

wyaroa. magaliTad, ipoTekuri<br />

sesxebi saqarTveloSi postsabWoTa<br />

sivrceSi erTerTi<br />

yvelaze Zviria. ruseT-<br />

Si komerciuli bankebi ipoTekuri<br />

sesxebs wliur 11-<br />

12.5%-Si gascemen, ukrainaSi<br />

17-20%-ad, somxeTSi ipoTekuri<br />

kreditebis saprocento ga-<br />

nakveTi 12%-dan iwyeba da<br />

26%-mde adis, azerbaijanSi<br />

ki 11-13%-s Seadgens. rac<br />

Seexeba saqarTvelos, aq moqmedi<br />

19 bankidan ipoTekur<br />

sesxebs 9 banki gascems, wli-<br />

32 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

uri saprocento ganakveTi 12%-dan 22%-mde meryeobs. rogorc<br />

am cifrebidan Cans, saqarTveloSi ipoTekur kreditebze<br />

dawesebuli saprocento ganakveTi arc ise dabalia.<br />

garda amisa, 2011 wels bankebma gaamkacres biznesTan<br />

urTierTobis wesebi. Tu ar CavTvliT ramdenime prioritetul<br />

sferos, ba-<br />

nkebi TiTqmis ar<br />

akrediteben biznessaqmianobis<br />

iseT<br />

saxeebs, romelic<br />

maRali riskis matarebelni<br />

arian (magaliTad,<br />

soflis<br />

meurneoba). Sedegad,<br />

naRdi fulis moZraoba<br />

bazarze Semcirebulia, rasac logikurad mivyavarT<br />

biznesis moculobis Semcirebamde.<br />

Tumca im mosazrebas, rom bankebi mogebas maRali procentebis<br />

xarjze aRweven, ar iziarebs eqspertTa nawili.<br />

isini miiCneven, rom, marTalia, saprocento ganakveTebi sesxebze<br />

jer kidev maRalia, magram es imas ar niSnavs, rom<br />

qarTuli bankebi akrediteben im dargebs, romelic ase Tu ise<br />

muSaoben. es aris vaWroba, msubuqi da gadamamuSavebeli mrewvelo-<br />

ba da sxva. uzarmazari potencialia soflis meurneobaSi, romelic,<br />

jerjerobiT, aTvisebuli ar aris da es ar aris marto bankebis<br />

problema, aramed mTlianad qarTuli ekonomikis problema. soflis<br />

meurneobis seqtorisaTvis unda Seiqmnas specialuri programebi

seqtoris mogebas mxolod<br />

maRali saprocento ganakveTebi<br />

ganapirobebs da rom<br />

bankebi ekonomikis sxva dargebs<br />

ar akrediteben. maTi<br />

SefasebiT, sabanko sistemis<br />

Semosavlebi gaizarda rogorc<br />

saprocento, aseve<br />

arasaprocento Semosavlebis<br />

zrdis Sedegad. magali-<br />

Tad, sabanko seqtoris mogebis<br />

sarekordo maCvenebelze<br />

gasvlaSi aranakleb mniSvnelovani<br />

roli iTamaSa<br />

vadagadacilebuli sesxebis<br />

xvedriTi wilis Semcirebam.<br />

bankebis sakredito portfelSi<br />

mTeli wlis manZilze<br />

mcirdeboda vadagadacilebuli<br />

sesxebis xvedriTi wili,<br />

am etapisTvis es maCvenebeli<br />

daaxloebiT 2%-ia, gasuli<br />

wlis analogiur periodSi<br />

es maCvenebeli 3,5% iyo.<br />

bolo 1 wlis ganmavlobaSi<br />

fizikur pirebze gacemuli<br />

sesxebidan Semosavali 24-<br />

25%-iT aris gazrdili, xolo<br />

iuridiul pirebze gacemu-<br />

sabanko-safinanso seqtori<br />

li sesxebidan Semosavlebi<br />

TiTqmis 30%-iT, yvela<br />

sakredito produqtis mixedviT.<br />

es exeba rogorc samomxmareblo<br />

da biznes sesxebs,<br />

aseve ipoTekur sesxebs da<br />

ganvadebebs.<br />

Tbilisis saxelmwifo<br />

universitetis sruli<br />

profesori irakli kovzanaZe:<br />

saqarTvelos sabanko<br />

sistemam 2010 wlis bolosTvis<br />

TiTqmis mTlianad<br />

daZlia 2008-2009 wlebSi warmoqmnili<br />

problemebi, romlebic,<br />

Tavis mxriv, sxva subieqtur<br />

(calkeuli bankebisaTvis<br />

sxvadasxva) mizezebTan<br />

erTad, gamowveuli iyo<br />

ruseT-saqarTvelos 2008<br />

wlis agvistos omiT da<br />

msoflio safinanso krizisiT.<br />

mogexsenebaT, sabanko<br />

sistemam 2008 weli daamTavra<br />

aqtivebis 1-miliardiani<br />

vardniT da 215 mln laris<br />

zaraliT, aseve 2009 weli<br />

dasrulda 65 mln laris<br />

zaraliT. maSindeli prob-<br />

lemebis daZleva SesaZlebeli<br />

gaxda donorebis mxridan<br />

gamoyofili farTomas-<br />

Stabiani daxmarebiT.<br />

2011 weli sabanko sistemisTvis<br />

dinamiuri zrdis<br />

periodia. bolo araaudirebuli<br />

monacemebiT, wlis ganmavlobaSi<br />

aqtivebi TiTqmis<br />

20%-iT gaizarda da 12<br />

miliard 679 milioni laria,<br />

wminda mogeba _ 323 milioni.<br />

kargi zrdaa rogorc<br />

fizikuri, aseve iuridiuli<br />

pirebis depozitebSi, gacilebiT<br />

winmswrebi qveynis<br />

ekonomikur zrdasTan SedarebiT.<br />

sabanko sistema am<br />

etapisTvis akmayofilebs<br />

mdgradobis da saimedoobis<br />

normativebsa da koeficientebs.<br />

s.e. _ `Tibisi bankis~<br />

generalurma direqtorma,<br />

vaxtang bucxrikiZem<br />

ganacxada, rom uaxloes<br />

periodSi mosalodnelia<br />

sabanko sistemaSi<br />

Serwyma-gaerTianebis<br />

qarTuli bankebi uZravi<br />

qonebis saagentoebs hgavdnen<br />

bankebis da mikrosafinanso organizaciebis mxridan val-<br />

Si waRebuli qonebis Taobaze gancxadebebi Tavad biznesis<br />

mxridan ismis. sajaro reestris cnobiT, 2011 wels 2010-Tan<br />

SedarebiT uZravi qonebis bazarze tranzaqciebi 26%-iT gaizarda,<br />

realurad ki, rogorc radio „komersantma~ gaarkvia, tranzaqciebis<br />

zrda mosaxleobisTvis safinanso institutebis<br />

mxridan qonebis CamorTmevis xarjze gaizarda.<br />

am faqtis realurobas adastureben rogorc uZravi qonebis<br />

bazris moTamaSeebi, aseve eqspertebi. dRes ki ukve mcire<br />

da saSualo biznesis asociaciis prezidenti radio „komersantis~<br />

eTerSi acxadebs, rom bankebis mxridan uZravi qonebis<br />

uzrunvelyofiT warmoudgeneli raodenobiT sesxi gaicemoda.<br />

Sedegad, giorgi isakaZis TqmiT, qonebis 99% swored valeb-<br />

Si wavida. misive TqmiT, qarTuli bankebi uZravi qonebis<br />

saagentoebs hgavdnen, radgan am mimarTulebiT aqtivebi Zalian<br />

didi raodenobiT dagrovda.<br />

erT-erTi wamyvani sainvesticio kompania „jiaiji pliusis~<br />

xelmZRvanelis daviT aslaniSvilis gancxadebiTac, uZravi<br />

qonebis bazarze bevri tranzaqcia xdeba, radgan<br />

giraoSi Cadebuli binebis brunva gaizarda.<br />

33

irakli<br />

kovzanaZe<br />

procesi. ramdenad eTanxmebiT<br />

am mosazrebas<br />

da Tu ase moxdeba, riT<br />

iqneba igi ganpirobebuli?<br />

i.k. _ me ar vici ris<br />

safuZvelze saubrobs bato-<br />

ni bucxrikiZe, Tumca ar gamovricxav<br />

msgavs movlenebs.<br />

aRsaniSnavia, rom sistemaSemqmneli<br />

bankebi qmnian sabanko<br />

sistemis aqtivebis 80%-s,<br />

danarCeni bankebi SedarebiT<br />

mcire zomisaa, magram yvela<br />

am mcire bankSi warmodgenilia<br />

ucxouri safinanso<br />

instituti. amitom ar gamovricxav<br />

iyos gaerTianebis<br />

tendenciebi, romelsac<br />

zogadad iwvevs sabanko seqtoris<br />

konkurenciis zrda.<br />

yvela es banki akmayofilebs<br />

mdgradobis da saimedoobis<br />

im normativebsa da koeficients,<br />

rac dawesebuli aqvs<br />

centralur banks.<br />

s.e. _ qonebis dayadaRebisas<br />

adre primati<br />

eniWeboda banks, axla es<br />

34 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

norma Seicvala. ra gaxda<br />

am sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebis<br />

mizezi da<br />

rogor aisaxeba es bankebze?<br />

i.k. _ zustad ver getyviT<br />

ram gamoiwvia es cvlileba.<br />

Tumca maxsovs<br />

sabanko<br />

asociacia erTi<br />

wlis win sakmaodaqtiurobda,<br />

roca ganixilebodasakiTxiproblemuri<br />

giraos<br />

SemTxvevaSi vis<br />

unda miniWeboda<br />

primati _ sagadasaxados<br />

Tu<br />

banks da garkveulikompromisebi<br />

maSin mi-<br />

Rweul iqna. bunebrivia,<br />

es cvlilebametnaklebad<br />

yvela bankze<br />

moaxdens<br />

gavlenas, gamomdinare<br />

iqidan,<br />

Tu sad gaCndeba<br />

giraosTan<br />

dakavSirebuli<br />

problemebi.<br />

s.e. _ 2011<br />

weli sabanko seqtorma<br />

daaxloebiT 300 milioniani<br />

mogebiT daasrula,<br />

ris xarjze aRweven bankebi<br />

mogebis amxela maCvenebels?<br />

i.k. _ es maCvenebeli<br />

miRweulia aqtivebis zrdis<br />

da, pirvel rigSi, sakredito<br />

portfelis zrdis xarjze.<br />

sakmaod maRalia saprocento<br />

ganakveTebi sesxebze da<br />

es ar aris gamowveuli mxolod<br />

resursis siZviriT.<br />

mniSvnelovan rols Tama-<br />

Sobs inflaciac, wlis pirvel<br />

naxevarSi CvenTan TiTqmis<br />

14%-iani inflacia iyo.<br />

izrdeba samomxmareblo sesxebis<br />

moculobac (Tu daveyrdnobiT<br />

gazeT `rezonansis~<br />

mier gavrcelebul informa-<br />

cias, yoveli 100 momxmareblidan,<br />

SeTavazebis SemTxveva-<br />

Si, asivem aiRo samomxmareblo<br />

sesxi). garda amisa, bankebs<br />

maRali aqvT sakomisio mar-<br />

Jebi savaluto operaciebze,<br />

salaros operaciebze, plastikur<br />

baraTebze da a. S. me<br />

vfiqrob, rom es sakomisioebi<br />

aris Sesamcirebeli, Tumca<br />

am ganakveTebs sabazro<br />

ekonomika, konkurencia unda<br />

aregulirebdes.<br />

s.e. _ jerovnad akrediteben<br />

Tu ara qarTuli<br />

bankebi dRes ekonomikas?<br />

migaCniaT Tu ara, rom<br />

dRes bankebs ar SeuZliaT<br />

meti riskis gaweva biznesis<br />

gansaviTareblad<br />

qveyanaSi?<br />

i.k. _ qarTuli bankebi<br />

akrediteben im dargebs, romelic<br />

ase Tu ise muSaoben.<br />

es aris vaWroba, msubuqi da<br />

gadamamuSavebeli mrewveloba<br />

da sxva. uzarmazari potencialia<br />

soflis meurneoba-<br />

Si, romelic jerjerobiT<br />

aTvisebuli ar aris da es<br />

ar aris marto bankebis problema,<br />

aramed mTlianad qarTuli<br />

ekonomikis problema.<br />

soflis meurneobis seqtorisaTvis<br />

unda Seiqmnas specialuri<br />

programebi. am<br />

TvalsazrisiT, kargi programis<br />

ganxorcieleba daiwyo<br />

evropis rekonstruqciisa da<br />

ganviTarebis bankma, romelmac<br />

agroseqtoris dakreditebisTvis<br />

garkveuli moculobis<br />

Tanxebi gamouyo qarTul<br />

bankebs.<br />

s.e. _ evrozonis krizisi<br />

ramdenad aisaxeba saqarTveloze?mosalodnelia<br />

Tu ara saprocento<br />

ganakveTebis zrda mimdinare<br />

wels?<br />

i.k. _ bunebrivia, gavlenas<br />

moaxdens. Cveni ekonomika<br />

da sabanko seqtori sakmaod<br />

aris integrirebuli<br />

Sesabamis globalur procesebsa<br />

da institutebSi.<br />

evrozonis savalo krizisi

negatiurad aisaxeba pirvel<br />

rigSi im qarTul kompaniebze,<br />

romlebic eqsports axorcieleben<br />

evrokavSirSi.<br />

krizisis pirobebSi, evrozonaSi<br />

(da mTlianad, evrokav-<br />

SirSi) isini mi-<br />

iReben nakleb SekveTebs,kontraqtebs<br />

da, cxadia,<br />

eqsportis moculobaSemcirdeba.<br />

Tumca, isic<br />

aRsaniSnavia, rom<br />

saqarTvelos eqsportSievrozonis<br />

wili 1/6–ze<br />

naklebia.<br />

gasaTvaliswinebelia<br />

isic, Tu<br />

ra gavlenas moaxdens es<br />

krizisi ruseTze. am qveynis<br />

biujetis Semosavlebis<br />

40% da mSp-is 40-45% formirdeba<br />

gazis da navTobis<br />

gayidvidan, romlis didi<br />

nawili modis evrokavSirze.<br />

problemaa isic, rom ruseT-<br />

Si mcxovrebi Cveni Tanamemamuleebidan<br />

maTi ojaxis<br />

wevrebi saqarTveloSi<br />

daxmarebebs fuladi transferebis<br />

saxiT Rebuloben.<br />

jamurad,<br />

marto 2011 wels<br />

msofliodan aseTma<br />

Semosulobebma<br />

saqarTveloSi 1268<br />

mln. aSS dolari<br />

Seadgina, romlis Ti-<br />

Tqmis 55% ruseTze<br />

modis. krizisis gavlena<br />

am mxriv iqneba<br />

aseTi Semosulobebis<br />

Semcireba<br />

rogorc ruseTSi,<br />

aseve evrokavSirSi<br />

(mag., saberZneTi, italia,<br />

espaneTi) mcxovrebi<br />

Cveni Tanamemamuleebidan.<br />

saqarTvelos<br />

bankebis ucxour<br />

safinanso institutebzedamokide-<br />

sabanko-safinanso seqtori<br />

bulebis xarisxi sakmaod maRalia. 19 bankidan 18-Si ucxouri<br />

institutia warmodgenili, xolo sistemaSemqneli<br />

bankebis xuTeulSi damokidebulebis xarisxi, pirvel rigSi,<br />

saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebze, kidev ufro maRalia.<br />

am institutebis SesaZleblobebi ki, dReisTvis sakmaod<br />

SezRudulia. evrozonis savalo krizisis didi xniT<br />

`gasaTvaliswinebelia isic, Tu ra gavlenas moaxdens es krizisi<br />

ruseTze. am qveynis biujetis Semosavlebis 40% da mSp-is 40-45%<br />

formirdeba gazis da navTobis gayidvidan, romlis didi nawili<br />

modis evrokavSirze. problemaa isic, rom ruseTSi mcxovrebi Cveni<br />

Tanamemamuleebidan maTi ojaxis wevrebi saqarTveloSi daxmarebebs<br />

fuladi transferebis saxiT Rebuloben. jamurad, marto<br />

2011 wels msofliodan aseTma Semosulobebma saqarTveloSi 1268<br />

mln. aSS dolari Seadgina, romlis TiTqmis 55% ruseTze modis.<br />

krizisis gavlena am mxriv iqneba aseTi Semosulobebis Semcireba<br />

rogorc ruseTSi, aseve evrokavSirSi (mag., saberZneTi, italia, espaneTi)<br />

mcxovrebi Cveni Tanamemamuleebidan<br />

`<br />

gagrZeleba saqarTvelos safinanso bazarze safinanso<br />

resursebs Seamcirebs. maRali riskebisa da saprocento<br />

ganakveTebis gamo gaizrdeba bankebisTvis sakredito<br />

resursebis fasi. xolo safinanso resursebis wyaroebze<br />

xelmiuwvdomloba sakredito organizaciebs aiZulebs, meti<br />

depoziti moizidon Sida bazarze, rasac saprocento<br />

ganakveTebis zrda mohyveba. zogadad, ar iqneba sakmarisi<br />

likviduri resursebi seqtoris zrdis gasagrZeleblad<br />

da sabanko sistemam SeiZleba daiwyos zrdis damuxruWeba.<br />

Tumca, meore mxriv, gasulma 2-3 welma saqarTvelos<br />

sabanko sistemas krizisTan brZolis garkveuli gamoc-<br />

35

`sistemaSemqneli bankebis xuTeulSi damokidebulebis xarisxi,<br />

pirvel rigSi, saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebze, kidev ufro<br />

maRalia. am institutebis SesaZleblobebi ki, dReisTvis sakmaod<br />

SezRudulia. evrozonis savalo krizisis didi xniT gagrZeleba<br />

saqarTvelos safinanso bazarze safinanso resursebs Seamcirebs.<br />

maRali riskebisa da saprocento ganakveTebis gamo gaizrdeba<br />

bankebisTvis sakredito resursebis fasi. xolo safinanso resursebis<br />

wyaroebze xelmiuwvdomloba sakredito organizaciebs aiZulebs,<br />

meti depoziti moizidon Sida bazarze, rasac saprocento<br />

ganakveTebis zrda mohyveba. zogadad, ar iqneba sakmarisi likviduri<br />

resursebi seqtoris zrdis gasagrZeleblad da sabanko sistemam<br />

SeiZleba daiwyos zrdis damuxruWeba<br />

dileba daugrova da, xatovnad<br />

rom vTqvaT, `instituciuri<br />

imunitetic~ ki gamoumuSava.<br />

dReisTvis bankebs<br />

sakredito portfelic ukve<br />

gawmendili aqvT wlebis ganmavlobaSi<br />

dagrovili problemuri<br />

aqtivebisagan.<br />

sabanko seqtoris<br />

finansuri<br />

maCveneblebi<br />

2011 wlis 1 dekembris<br />

mdgomareobiT, saqarTvelos<br />

36 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

`<br />

sabanko seqtori 19 komerciuli<br />

bankiTaa warmodgenili.<br />

maT Soris, 16 sawesdebo kapitalSi<br />

ucxouri kapitalis<br />

monawileobiT da 2 ucxouri<br />

bankis filialiT. wina Tves-<br />

Tan SedarebiT, saqarTvelos<br />

komerciuli bankebis mTliani<br />

aqtivebi 44.9 mln lariT,<br />

anu 0.4%-iT gaizarda da<br />

11.9 mlrd lari Seadgina.<br />

sabanko seqtoris sakuTari<br />

saxsrebi 2 mlrd lars Seadgens,<br />

rac komerciuli banke-<br />

bis mTliani aqtivebis<br />

17%-ia. ucxouri<br />

kapitalis<br />

monawileobam bankebis<br />

mTlian ganaRdebulsawesdebo<br />

kapitalSi 81.8%<br />

Seadgina. 2011 wlis<br />

noemberi, iseve<br />

rogorc wina Tve, sabanko<br />

seqtorma<br />

mogebiT daamTavra.<br />

wminda mogebam Tvis<br />

SedegebiT 55.5 mln<br />

lari, xolo wlis dasawyisidan<br />

290.3 mln lari<br />

Seadgina. xuTi umsxvilesi<br />

aqtivebis mqone bankis wili<br />

sabanko seqtoris mTlian aqtivebSi<br />

wina TvesTan SedarebiT<br />

0.6 procentuli punqtiT<br />

gaizarda da 80%-s miaRwia.<br />

komerciuli bankebis<br />

sakredito dabandebis moculoba<br />

(ararezidentebze gacemuli<br />

sesxebis CaTvliT)<br />

2011 wlis noemberSi, wina<br />

TvesTan SedarebiT, 0.5%-iT,<br />

mTavrobam soflis mxardaWeris<br />

programa daamtkica<br />

saqarTvelos mTavrobam soflis mxardaWeris programa<br />

daamtkica, romlis dasafinasebladac 2012 wlis<br />

biujetidan 50 milioni lari gamoiyofa.<br />

mTavrobis dadgenilebiT, aRniSnuli Tanxa Semdegnairad<br />

nawildeba: araumetes 50-suliani soflisaTvis<br />

– 2 000 lari; 51-dan 200 sulamde soflisaTvis<br />

– 4 000 lari; 201-dan 400 sulamde soflisaTvis – 5<br />

000 lari; 401-dan 1 000 sulamde soflisaTvis – 8 000<br />

lari; 1 000-ze metsuliani soflisaTvis – 12 000<br />

lari.<br />

aRniSnuli programis ZiriTad miznebad, soflis<br />

pirveli rigis socialur-ekonomikur saWiroebaTa dafinanseba<br />

– adgilobrivi infrastruqturis obieqtebis<br />

aRdgena-reabilitacia da keTilmowyobis samuSaoebis<br />

ganxorcieleba saxeldeba.<br />

dadgenilebis Tanaxmad, programis farglebSi gansaxorcielebeli<br />

proeqtebi SesaZlebelia, damatebiT<br />

saerTaSoriso da donori organizaciebis an adgilobrivi<br />

TviTmmarTveli erTeulis saxsrebiT dafinansdes.<br />

Tanxis gamoyenebis miznobriobis gansaz-<br />

Rvra ki, soflis mosaxleobasTan mxolod<br />

winaswari konsultaciis Semdeg moxdeba.

anu 41 mln lariT gaizarda<br />

da gasuli wlis pirveli<br />

dekembrisaTvis 7.5 mlrd<br />

lars gadaaWarba. amave periodSi,<br />

erovnuli valutiT<br />

gacemuli sesxebis moculoba<br />

3%-iT, anu 69.5 mln lariT<br />

gaizarda, xolo ucxouri<br />

valutiT gacemuli sesxebis<br />

moculoba 0.5%-iT, anu 28.5<br />

mln lariT Semcirda.<br />

rezidenti iuridiuli<br />

pirebisaTvis 2011 wlis noembris<br />

bolos komerciul<br />

bankebs erovnuli valutiT<br />

gacemuli hqondaT 825.6 mln<br />

laris (wina TvesTan SedarebiT<br />

6%-iT anu 46.8 mln<br />

lariT meti), xolo ucxouri<br />

valutiT – 3.4 mlrd laris<br />

(Sesabamisad, 1.2%-iT anu 39.5<br />

mln lariT naklebi) moculobis<br />

sesxi.<br />

iuridiuli pirebis dakreditebis<br />

mTlian moculobaSi<br />

yvelaze didi xvedriTi<br />

wili – 48.9% vaWrobis sfe-<br />

sabanko-safinanso seqtori<br />

roze modis. 2011 wlis oqtomberTan<br />

SedarebiT, noemberSi<br />

vaWrobis sferoze<br />

gacemuli sesxebis moculoba<br />

0.6%-iT anu 12.1 mln lariT<br />

Semcirda da 2.1 mlrd<br />

`pegasusi~ evropis<br />

mimarTulebebze axali<br />

kompaniebis Semosvlis<br />

saWiroebas ver xedavs<br />

induri avia-gigantis „jet earveisis~ saqarTveloTi<br />

dainteresebas gamoxmaurebebi mohyva. qarTul aviabazris<br />

erT-erTi moTamaSis „pegasusis~ gancxadebiT, evropis mimarTulebiT<br />

bazari gajerebulia da damatebiT axali<br />

aviakompaniebis Semoyvanas ar saWiroebs. Tumca, kompaniis<br />

qarTuli warmomadgenlobis gancxadebiT, igives Tqma ar<br />

SeiZleba aziis mimarTulebaze.<br />

maTive ganmartebiT, qarTuli bazari dabalbiujetiani<br />

aviakompaniebisTvis ufro mimzidvelia. informaciisa-<br />

Tvis _ aviakopania `jet earveisi~ erT dReSi 64 sxvadasxva<br />

aeroportidan 400 reiss axorcielebs.<br />

cxrili #1. bankebis pirveli xuTeuli aqtivebis mixedviT<br />

(01 dekemberi 2011; milioni lari)<br />

wyaro: www.nbg.gov.ge<br />

lari Seadgina.<br />

mrewvelobaze gacemuli<br />

sesxebis wilma iuridiul<br />

pirebze gacemuli vadiani<br />

sesxebis saerTo moculoba-<br />

Si 19.8% Seadgina, rac 2011<br />

saqarTveloSi<br />

luqs-sastumroebi<br />

Semodian<br />

davosis ekonomikur forumze saqar-<br />

Tvelos premieris da investorebis Sexvedraze<br />

cnobili gaxda, rom „Seratonis~<br />

brendis mflobeli saerTaSoriso<br />

sastumroebis qseli „starvudi~ saqar-<br />

TveloSi gafarToebas gegmavs. „holidei<br />

inis~ Tbilisur sastumroSi acxadeben,<br />

rom saqarTveloSi luqs-klasis<br />

sastumroebze moTxovna maRalia.<br />

maTive TqmiT, aseT sastumroebSi ma-<br />

Rali fasi swored bazarze luqs-klasis<br />

servisis deficitiT aris gamowveuli.<br />

menejmentis gancxadebiTve, bazarze<br />

konkurenciis gazrda fasebs daaregulirebs<br />

da momxmarebeli momgebian poziciaSi<br />

aRmoCndeba. Tumca, „holidei inis~<br />

gancxadebiTve, am etapze qarTul bazarze<br />

maRali klasis sastumroebTan<br />

SedarebiT moTxovna 2-3 varskvlavian<br />

sastumroebze fiqsirdeba.<br />

37

cxrili #2. rezident iuridiul pirebze gacemuli vadiani<br />

sesxebis moculoba saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT, larebSi<br />

da dolarebSi) (2011 wlis noemberi)<br />

wyaro: www.nbg.gov.ge<br />

`evrozonis savalo krizisi negatiurad aisaxeba pirvel rigSi<br />

im qarTul kompaniebze, romlebic eqsports axorcieleben evrokav-<br />

SirSi. krizisis pirobebSi evrozonaSi (da mTlianad, evrokavSir-<br />

Si) isini miiReben nakleb SekveTebs, kontraqtebs da, cxadia, eqsportis<br />

moculoba Semcirdeba. Tumca, isic aRsaniSnavia, rom saqarTvelos<br />

eqsportSi evrozonis wili 1/6–ze naklebia<br />

38 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

`<br />

cxrili #3. rezident iuridiul pirebze gacemuli<br />

vadiani sesxebis saprocento ganakveTebi<br />

saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT, larebSi da dolarebSi)<br />

(2011 wlis noemberi)<br />

wyaro: www.nbg.gov.ge<br />

wlis pirveli dekembrisaTvis<br />

833.2 mln lariT ganisazRvra<br />

(1.2%-iT anu 10.0 mln<br />

lariT meti wina TvesTan<br />

SedarebiT); 11.4% modis mSeneblobaze,<br />

rac 482.6 mln<br />

laria (3.2%-iT, anu 15.7 mln<br />

lariT naklebi, Sesabamisad).<br />

amdenad, iuridiuli pirebis<br />

dakreditebis saerTo moculobis<br />

80.1% mxolod sam dargze<br />

– mrewvelobaze, mSeneblobasa<br />

da vaWrobaze modis.<br />

2011 wlis noembris ganmavlobaSi<br />

1.3%-iT anu 40.6 mln<br />

lariT gaizarda rezidenti<br />

fizikuri pirebis dakreditebis<br />

moculoba da gasuli<br />

wlis pirveli dekembrisaTvis<br />

3.1 mlrd lars miaRwia.<br />

sabanko seqtorSi ganTavsebuli<br />

arasabanko depozitebis<br />

moculobam 2011 wlis<br />

pirveli dekembrisaTvis 5.3<br />

mlrd lars miaRw-<br />

ia, rac 155.5 mln lariT<br />

anu 3%-iT naklebia<br />

gasuli wlis<br />

pirveli noembrisaTvis<br />

arsebul<br />

maCvenebelze. noemberSi,<br />

wina TvesTan<br />

SedarebiT, adgili<br />

hqonda samewarmeo da Sinameurneobebis<br />

seqtorebis mimdinare<br />

angariSebis klebas 119.1<br />

mln lariT (5.8%-iT) da vadiani<br />

depozitebis klebas 37.1<br />

mln lariT, anu 1.2%-iT. depozitebis<br />

dolarizaciis<br />

koeficientma mimdinare wlis<br />

pirveli noembrisaTvis 66.3%<br />

Seadgina _ 0.6 procentuli<br />

punqtiT naklebi pirveli<br />

noembris mdgomareobasTan SedarebiT.<br />

vadian depozitebze<br />

saSualo wliurma Sewonilma<br />

saprocento ganakveTma 8.8%<br />

Seadgena, maT Soris erovnuli<br />

valutiT ganTavsebul depozitebze<br />

– 12%, xolo ucxouri<br />

valutiT ganTavsebul<br />

depozitebze – 8.4%. ucxouri<br />

valutiT ganTavsebul<br />

depozitebSi aSS dolaris<br />

wilma 74.2%, xolo evros<br />

wilma 20.6% Seadgena.

sabanko-safinanso seqtori<br />

mosaxleobis 70%-sTvis<br />

samedicino momsaxureba<br />

xelmiuwvdomelia<br />

aleqsandra<br />

laliaSvili<br />

s<br />

aqarTveloSi jandacvis<br />

sistemis decentralizaciis<br />

mimarTulebiT<br />

pirveli nabijebi 2006 wels<br />

gadaidga, ris Sedegadac samedicino<br />

dawesebulebebis<br />

didi nawili kerZo seqtor-<br />

Si gadavida, sadazRvevo kompaniebma<br />

ki, saxelmwifo<br />

sadazRvevo programis farglebSi,<br />

biujetidan masStaburi<br />

dafinanseba miiRes. am-<br />

Jamad programa biujetidan<br />

daaxloebiT 140 milioni<br />

lariT finansdeba, Tumca, amis<br />

miuxedavad, janmrTelobis<br />

dazRvevis sistema bolomde<br />

gamarTulad mainc ver muSaobs<br />

da saxelmwifo sadazR-<br />

`<br />

vevo programaSi CarTuli<br />

socialurad daucveli moqalaqeebi<br />

bevr<br />

problemas awydemTavari<br />

gamowveva jandacvis sferoSi isaa, rom mosaxleobis<br />

bian.<br />

70%-s xeli jer isev ar miuwvdeba elementarul samedicino mom-<br />

mTavari gasaxurebaze.<br />

es gansakuTrebiT exeba soflad mcxovreb mosaxleobas,<br />

mowveva jandacvis<br />

romlebic arc umweoTa paketebiT arian dazRveulebi da verc<br />

sferoSi isaa, rom<br />

asakis gamo moxvdnen dazRveulTa arealSi. imis gamo, rom mosax-<br />

mosaxleobis 70%leobis<br />

udidesi nawili TviTdasaqmebulia da mciredi Semosavs<br />

xeli jer isev<br />

lebi aqvs, maTi perspeqtiva uaxloes momavalSi mainc iqnan dazRveu-<br />

ar miuwvdeba eleli,<br />

mizerulia<br />

mentarulsamedicinomomsaxurebaze. es gansakuTrebiT exeba udidesi nawili TviTdasaqmebulia da mciredi Semosavlebi<br />

soflad mcxovreb mosaxle- aqvs, maTi perspeqtiva uaxloes momavalSi mainc iqnan dazRveuli,<br />

obas, romlebic arc umweoTa mizerulia.<br />

paketebiT arian dazRveul- garda amisa, dazRveuli moqalaqeebis mniSvnelovani<br />

ebi da verc asakis gamo mox- nawili ver iRebs jerovan samedicino momsaxurebas, risi<br />

vdnen dazRveulTa arealSi. mizezic, xSir SemTxvevaSi, informirebis dabali donea.<br />

imis gamo, rom mosaxleobis eqspertTa nawilis SefasebiT, amis erT-erTi mizezi sadazRve-<br />

`<br />

39

devi<br />

xeCinaSvili:<br />

xalxi CvenTan<br />

dazRveviT<br />

cdilobs<br />

dRevandeli<br />

problemis<br />

mogvarebas, rac,<br />

faqtobrivad,<br />

SeuZlebelia<br />

vo kompaniebis mxridan arasrulyofili<br />

momsaxureba da<br />

xelSekrulebebSi orazrovani<br />

muxlebis Cadebacaa. kritikas<br />

nawilobriv iziareben<br />

sadazRvevo kompaniebis warmomadgenlebi,<br />

romlebic acxadeben,<br />

rom mTavari problema<br />

dRes saqarTveloSi<br />

dazRvevis kulturis uqonloba<br />

da sakiTxisadmi zerele<br />

damokidebulebaa. maTi<br />

gancxadebiT, isini garantias<br />

yidian, romelic fizikurad<br />

ararealizebuli produqtia<br />

da amitom Zalian mniSvnelovania,<br />

Tu ra weria xelSekrulebis<br />

pirobebSi. `samwuxarod,<br />

amas mosaxleobis nawili<br />

dazRvevisas yuradRebas<br />

ar aqcevs da, rodesac adamiani<br />

dazRvevis pakets mxolod<br />

fasis mixedviT irCevs, bunebrivia,<br />

rom rac ufro iafia<br />

produqti, miT uaresia pirobebi~<br />

_ miiCneven kompaniebis<br />

warmomadgenlebi.<br />

saqarTvelos sadaz-<br />

Rvevo asociaciaciis gamgeobis<br />

Tavmjdomare, devi<br />

xeCinaSvili: `2006 wels,<br />

sadazRvevo industriis saer-<br />

To sapremio Semosavali 70<br />

milioni lari iyo, aqedan<br />

daaxloebiT 20%-ze nakebi<br />

modioda janmrTelobis daz-<br />

Rvevaze, dazRveuli iyo daax-<br />

40 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

loebiT 80 000 adamiani. am<br />

monacemebidan Cans, rom<br />

dazRvevis ekonomikuri mniSvneloba<br />

saqarTveloSi 4-5<br />

wlis win Zalian mcire iyo.<br />

sadazRvevo<br />

kompaniebic<br />

Sesabamisad<br />

iyvnen patara<br />

zomis, mimarTuliklientis<br />

yvela<br />

survilis<br />

dakmayofilebaze,standartuliprogramebi<br />

cota iyo,<br />

anderraitingi<br />

Zlieri,<br />

gayidvebi patara<br />

da profesiuli,Sida<br />

auditi<br />

iyo SedarebiT<br />

susti, sakmaod dabali<br />

done iyo IT-is mxrivac. 2007<br />

wlis bolodan, rodesac<br />

didi siaxle moxda da saxelmwifo<br />

jandacviTi programebis<br />

gadmotana daiwyo<br />

sadazRvevo programebze, ukve<br />

sxva gamowvevis winaSe dadga<br />

industria. naTeli gaxda,<br />

rom kompaniebis ZiriTadi biznesi<br />

iqneboda standartuli<br />

produqtis SeTavazeba, Zalian<br />

mniSvnelovani gaxda IT,<br />

standartizeba, angariSgeba,<br />

mniSvnelovani gaxda Sida<br />

kontrolis sistemebis awyoba.<br />

2007 wlidan zedamxedveloba<br />

dargze Zalian aqtiurdeba.<br />

iwyeba gacilebiT<br />

ufro gamWvirvale da informatiuli<br />

angariSgebebis<br />

sistemis danergva. 2008-2009<br />

wlebSi ukve principuli cvlilebebi<br />

xdeba. dargi angariSgasawevi<br />

da mniSvnelovani<br />

struqtura xdeba.<br />

im cifrebiT, romelic dRes<br />

ukve yovelTviurad qveyndeba,<br />

SeiZleba dargis ganvi-<br />

TarebisaTvis Tvalyuris<br />

devneba da tendenciebis<br />

danaxva. Sedegad, 2009 wlis<br />

bolos ukve milionamde adamiania<br />

saxvadasxva donis<br />

saxelmwifo programebiT<br />

dazRveuli. mniSvnelovnad<br />

aris gazrdili arasaxelmwifo<br />

programebiT dazRveulTa<br />

raodenobac, daaxloebiT<br />

250 000.<br />

s.e. _ ra ZiriTadi gamowvevebis<br />

winaSe dgas<br />

dRes jandacvis dazRvevis<br />

sistema saqarTvelo-<br />

Si?<br />

d.x. _ 2010 wlis bolos,<br />

mniSvnelovani optimizacia<br />

xdeba arsebuli sadazRvevo<br />

porgramebis _ sadazRvevo<br />

programebs emateba wamlis<br />

komponenti. manamde saxelmwifo<br />

sadazRvevo programebis<br />

ZiriTadi problema swored<br />

wamlis komponentis ar<br />

arseboba iyo. es komponenti<br />

sadazRvevo programebSi 2<br />

mniSvnelovani aspeqtiT Semodis:<br />

esencialuri wamlebis<br />

CamonaTvali da recepti.<br />

rac ase Zalian aklda<br />

Cven sistemas. amave dros,<br />

esenciuri wamlebis Camona-<br />

Tvali aris generikebze dayrdnobiT.<br />

garda amisa, Cemi azriT,<br />

jandacvis dafinansebis umniSvnelovanesi<br />

problema<br />

Tanxebis simwirea. marTalia,<br />

jandacvis dafinansebaze<br />

Cven mSp-is 10%-s vxarjavT,<br />

magram TviTon mSp gvaqvs patara<br />

da amitom dafinansebis<br />

Tanxac mcire gamodis.<br />

10%-ze bevrad zemoT verc<br />

waxval, es aris saSualo<br />

maCvenebeli, romelsac qveynebi<br />

jandacvis programebze<br />

xarjaven. amitom aucilebelia<br />

ekonomika ganviTardes<br />

da mSp gaizardos. rac imas<br />

niSavs, rom imedi imisa, rom<br />

Cven male gveqneba meti fuli<br />

jandacvis sistemis dasafinanseblad,<br />

ar arsebobs.<br />

faqtia, rom jandacvis dafinansebis<br />

jamuri Tanxa aris<br />

Zalian mcire da, ufro metic,<br />

am Tanxis 40-50% aris wamlis<br />

danaxarji, rac sruli

ad dauSvebelia.<br />

es aris, erTi mxriv, miwodebis<br />

sakiTxi da bazarze<br />

arsebuli maRali fasebi,<br />

razec, sxvaTa Soris, didi gavlena<br />

moaxdina 2009 wels<br />

wamlis importis liberalizaciam.<br />

iq, sadac konkurencia<br />

arsebobs, magaliTad,<br />

TbilisSi, fasebi wamlebze<br />

nel-nela mcirdeba. magram<br />

raionebSi, sadac konkurencia<br />

ar aris da dominireben<br />

didi komapniebi, fasebi isev<br />

maRalia. magram eqskluziur<br />

fasebze zewola nel-nela<br />

xorcieldeba. garda amisa,<br />

Cveni bazari mTlianad gajerebulia<br />

brendebiT, romlebic<br />

generiul formebze<br />

3-4-jer Zviri Rirs. eqimebis<br />

90%-ze meti mainc brendebs<br />

niSnaven. ratom iqcevian<br />

eqimebi ase? amis<br />

ramdenime mizezi<br />

arsebobs _ pirveli<br />

_ dRes eqimebi<br />

arian `Tavisufal<br />

frenaSi~,<br />

rasac undaT imas<br />

niSnaven. ar arsebobs<br />

gawerili wesebi<br />

Tu rogor<br />

sabanko-safinanso seqtori<br />

`<br />

unda ikurnebodes esa Tu is daavadeba. es aris cnobili<br />

gaidlain protokolebis Tema da maTi ar arseboba Zalian<br />

didi problemaa. aravin ukontrolebs eqimebs wesebis dac-<br />

Cveni bazari mTlianad gajerebulia brendebiT, romlebic generiul<br />

formebze 3-4-jer Zviri Rirs. eqimebis 90%-ze meti mainc<br />

brendebs niSnaven. ratom iqcevian eqimebi ase? amis ramdenime<br />

mizezi arsebobs _ pirveli _ dRes eqimebi arian `Tavisufal frenaSi~,<br />

rasac undaT imas niSnaven. ar arsebobs gawerili wesebi Tu<br />

rogor unda ikurnebodes esa Tu is daavadeba. es aris cnobili<br />

gaidlain protokolebis Tema da maTi ar arseboba Zalian didi<br />

problemaa<br />

`<br />

saqarTveloSi 2011 wels<br />

2820185 vizitori dafiqsirda<br />

Sss-s sainformacio-analitikuri departamentis<br />

informaciiT, saqarTveloSi 2011 wels 2820185 vizitori<br />

dafiqsirda. departamenti saqarTvelos sazRvarze<br />

2006-2012 wlebSi gadaadgilebul vizitorTa<br />

statistikur monacemebs aqveynebs, sadac aRniSnulia,<br />

rom 2006 wlidan dRemde saqarTveloSi Semosul<br />

vizitorTa raodenoba yovel wels izrdeba.<br />

amave monacemebiT, Tu 2006 wlis ianvarSi<br />

saqarTveloSi 34761 vizitori Semovida, 2012 wlis<br />

ianvarSi am ricxvma 227. 006 Seadgina. 2006 wels<br />

qveyanaSi sul 763231 ucxo qveynis vizitori dafiqsirda,<br />

2011 wels ki 2820185.<br />

statistikis Tanaxmad, saqarTveloSi yvelaze<br />

meti TurqeTis moqalaqe, Semdeg azerbaijanis,<br />

somxeTisa da ruseTis moqalaqeebi Semodian.<br />

41

vas. mniSvnelovani faqtoria<br />

isic, rom eqimebs aqvT pirdapiri<br />

urTierToba farmacevtul<br />

kompaniebTan da<br />

maTi politikiT niSnaven<br />

wamlebs. anu wamlebis maRali<br />

fasi ganpirobebulia<br />

bevri faqtoriT. es umniSvnelovanesi<br />

problemaa, miT<br />

umetes, rom axali hospitlebis<br />

gaxsnis fonze, servisis<br />

moxmareba sul ufro izrdeba.<br />

aqamde sadazRvevo kompaniebi<br />

kapitacias rom uxdidnen<br />

pirvelad jandacvas<br />

raionebSi, gamodiodnen<br />

iqidan, Tu ra servisis miwodeba<br />

SeeZlo am sistemas,<br />

magaliTad, lagodexis raion-<br />

Si exo ar keTdeboda, Sesabamisad,<br />

kapitacias roca ix-<br />

42 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

didnen, iTvaliswinebdnen<br />

imas, rom SezRuduli iyo<br />

servisebi, romelzedac miuwvdeboda<br />

xeli pirvelad jandacvas.<br />

axla miwodebis servisebi<br />

izrdeba, gansakuTrebiT<br />

regionebSi. izrdeba moxmarebac<br />

da amas sWirdeba<br />

meti fuli. zemoT ki vTqviT,<br />

`jandacvis dafinansebis umniSvnelovanesi problema Tanxebis simwirea.<br />

marTalia, jandacvis dafinansebaze Cven mSp-is 10%-s vxarjavT,<br />

magram TviTon mSp gvaqvs patara da amitom dafinansebis<br />

Tanxac mcire gamodis. 10%-ze bevrad zemoT verc waxval, es aris<br />

saSualo maCvenebeli, romelsac qveynebi jandacvis programebze<br />

xarjaven. amitom aucilebelia ekonomika ganviTardes da mSp gaizardos.<br />

rac imas niSavs, rom imedi imisa, rom Cven male gveqneba meti<br />

fuli jandacvis sistemis dasafinanseblad, ar arsebobs<br />

`<br />

rom meti fuli, jerjerobiT,<br />

faqtobrivad, ver gveqneba, amitom<br />

aucilebelia wamlis<br />

kolosaluri Rirebulebis<br />

Semcireba da am Tanxis xarjze<br />

momsaxurebis sxva servisebiT<br />

uzrunvelyofis gazrda.<br />

jandacvis dazRvevis<br />

sistemis meore didi problema<br />

aris TviTdasaqmebuli<br />

adamianebis dazRveva. Cemi<br />

azriT, iafi dazRvevis pro-<br />

grama iyo am gamowvevaze pasuxi.<br />

Tu daakvirdebiT, am polisebze<br />

pidapir ewera, rom<br />

formalurad dasaqmebulebi<br />

amas ver gamoiyeneben. es<br />

programa gankuTvnili iyo,<br />

ara Raribi, TviTdasaqmebuli<br />

adamianebisaTvis. es unda<br />

yofiliyo maTTvis biZgis<br />

mimcemi, imisaTvis,<br />

rom Sesuliyvnen<br />

sadazRvevo sistema-<br />

Si da Semdeg fexi<br />

moekidebinaT iq. am<br />

programiT 120 000<br />

kaci daezRva.<br />

molodini bevrad<br />

meti iyo, magram mosaxleoba<br />

am programas<br />

Zalian<br />

frTxilad Sexvda, bevrma ver<br />

gaigo misi arsi, programas<br />

hqonda cudi piari, Zalian<br />

iyo mibmuli politikur Temebs<br />

da a.S.<br />

2010 wlis meore naxevridan<br />

didi siaxleebi aRar yofila.<br />

mTavari siaxle iyo<br />

is, rom 1,5-2 weliwadSi hospitaluri<br />

infrastruqturis<br />

jer mSenebloba unda dasrulebuliyo,<br />

mere kadrebiT<br />

aRWurva da kvalificiuri<br />

saidan elodebian finansebs<br />

samSeneblo kompaniebi<br />

kompania „olimpiuri varskvlavi~ yofili saburTalos bazris<br />

teritoriaze mSeneblobas mimdinare TveSi ganaaxlebs. menejmentis<br />

informaciiT, kviris bolomde damtkicdeba sesxi „saqarTvelos<br />

bankSi~ da Tanxis gamoyofis Semdeg ganaxldeba samSeneblo<br />

samuSaoebi.<br />

olimpiur varskvlavSi~ ganmartaven, rom am droisTvis kompleqsis<br />

80% ukve aSenebulia, xolo srulad proeqti 2013 wlis zafxulisTvis<br />

dasruldeba. menejmentis ganmartebiT, sesxis damtkicebidan<br />

1 weliwadSi kompleqsSi ganTavsebuli sacxovrebeli farTebi<br />

srulad mzad iqneba. sabanko sesxis moculoba saSualod 5-6<br />

mln dolari iqneba. finansuri problemebis gamo „olimpiuri varskvlavis~<br />

mSenebloba 18 Tvea SeCerebulia.<br />

developeruli kompania „kid arqiteqtura~ ki axal proeqtebze<br />

ucxoel investorebTan erTad muSaobs. kompaniis direqtoris informaciiT,<br />

saubaria didubeSi mravalfunqciuri kompleqsis da<br />

orTaWalaSi sastumros mSeneblobaze. TiToeuli proeqti<br />

6 milioni dolaris investicias moicavs da SeTanxmebis<br />

SemTxvevaSi mSeneblobebi mimdinare wels daiwyeba.

servisis miwodebis uzrunvelyofa.<br />

Cemi warmodgeniT,<br />

sadazRvevo industriam uprecendento<br />

ram gaakeTa. qveyanaSi<br />

amis ganxorcielebis<br />

bolomde aravis sjeroda. 1,5<br />

weliwadSi 50-mde sruliad<br />

axali hospitalis aSeneba<br />

warmoudgenlad rTuli iyo.<br />

s.e. _ sadazRvevo kultura<br />

ramdenad maRalia<br />

mosaxleobaSi?<br />

d.x. _ namdvili sadaz-<br />

Rvevo kultura niSnavs imas,<br />

rom Sen xvalindel dReze<br />

zrunav, magram Cveni sadazRvevo<br />

sferos problema is aris,<br />

rom xSirad xalxi CvenTan<br />

dazRveviT cdilobs dRevandeli<br />

problemis mogvarebas,<br />

rac, faqtobrivad, SeuZlebelia.<br />

s.e. _ sacalo gayidvebTan<br />

dakavSirebiT ra<br />

tendenciebia?<br />

d.x. _ sadazRvevo kompaniebma<br />

nel-nela daiwyes yuradRebis<br />

miqceva sacalo gayidvebisTvisac.<br />

Cven dRes daaxloebiT<br />

gvyavs milion naxevari<br />

dazRveuli. aqedan sad-<br />

Rac 400 000-mde aris e.w. korporatiuli,<br />

anu dasaqmebismieri<br />

dazRveuli.<br />

milionze metia<br />

saxelmwifo programebiT<br />

dazRveul-<br />

Ta raodenoba, xolo<br />

sacalo seqtorSi<br />

dazRveulebis<br />

raodenobam daaxloebiT<br />

40 000-s miaRwia.<br />

sacalo bazrs<br />

Zalian bevri safrTxe<br />

axlavs Tan<br />

_ pirveli, es aris antiseleqcia,<br />

anu dasazRvevad modis<br />

marto is, visac ukve problema<br />

aqvs. meorec, formalur<br />

SromaSi CaurTveli adamianisgan<br />

Tviuri premiis miReba<br />

Zalian didi problemaa saqarTveloSi.<br />

praqtikac anaxebs<br />

amas, rom sadazRvevo<br />

sabanko-safinanso seqtori<br />

premiis gadaxda yvelaze<br />

xSirad `aviwydebaT~.<br />

amas Sexseneba<br />

unda, Sexseneba<br />

ki sadazRvevo<br />

kompaniebis mxridan,<br />

did danaxarjebTanaa<br />

dakavSirebuli.<br />

xSirad wydeba kontraqtebi<br />

amis gamo.<br />

es nawili aris<br />

mniSvnelovnad dasaregulirebeli.<br />

amas emateba isic,<br />

rom samoqalaqo<br />

kanonmdeblobiT, imisaTvis,<br />

rom sadazRvevo<br />

kompaniam<br />

gauwyvitos kontraqti<br />

im dazRveulebs,<br />

romlebic sadazRvevo<br />

premias ar ixidan,<br />

daaxloebiT<br />

Tvenaxevari mainc aris<br />

saWiro. am periodis ganmavlobaSi<br />

ki sadazRvevo kompania<br />

mainc valdebulia miawodos<br />

momsaxureba dazRveuls.<br />

es sadazRvevo kompaniebisaTvis<br />

seriozuli problemaa.<br />

s.e. _ eqspertTa nawili<br />

aRniSnavs, rom gan-<br />

sakuTrebiT saxelmwifo<br />

programiT dazRveul beneficiarTa<br />

mxolod 20%<br />

iRebs kvalificiur momsaxurebas.<br />

d.x. _ araviTar SemTxvevaSi<br />

ar viziareb am Sexedulebas<br />

da amis gadamowmeba<br />

cifrebis naxviT sul martiv-<br />

ia. dRes jandacvis sistemis<br />

zaralianoba asulia 83%-ze,<br />

anu fulis 80%-ze meti ixdeba<br />

zaralianobis dafarvaze.<br />

Semosuli fulis minimum 75%<br />

ixdeba sadazRvevo zaralis dafarvaze.<br />

es naTelia. piriqiT,<br />

problema aqvT sadazRvevo kompaniebs.<br />

zaralianobis amxela<br />

maCveneblis gaTval-<br />

`Cemi azriT, iafi dazRvevis programa iyo am gamowvevaze pasuxi.<br />

Tu daakvirdebiT, am polisebze pidapir ewera, rom formalurad<br />

dasaqmebulebi amas ver gamoiyeneben. es programa gankuTvnili<br />

iyo, ara Raribi, TviTdasaqmebuli adamianebisaTvis. es unda<br />

yofiliyo maTTvis biZgis mimcemi, imisaTvis, rom Sesuliyvnen<br />

sadazRvevo sistemaSi da Semdeg fexi moekidebinaT iq. am programiT<br />

120 000 kaci daezRva. molodini bevrad meti iyo. magram<br />

mosaxleoba am programas Zalian frTxilad Sexvda, bevrma ver<br />

gaigo misi arsi, programas hqonda cudi piari, Zalian iyo mibmuli<br />

politikur Temebs da a.S.<br />

`<br />

iswinebiT aRar aris gasakviri,<br />

Tu ratom aris sadazRvevo<br />

sferos finansuri maCveneblebi<br />

uaryofiTi. es bunebrivia, radgan<br />

biznesis momgebianoba<br />

mcirdeba da xarjebi izrdeba.<br />

Tundac es hospitaluri<br />

mSenebloba. 200 milionze meti<br />

investiciaa gakeTebuli. es in-<br />

43

vesticiebi aisaxeba aqtivebSic, pasivebSic, mogebazaralSic<br />

da ase Semdeg.<br />

sadazRvevo seqtoris zaralianobas ganapirobebs<br />

isic, rom aqamde dabali iyo sadazRvevo<br />

premiebi. es ori mizeziTaa ganpirobebuli<br />

_ momsaxurebis servisi iyo ufro<br />

iafi da moxmarebac iyo ufro dabali, samedicino<br />

momsaxurebaze wvdomis sxvadasxva barie-<br />

`dRes jandacvis sistemis zaralianoba asulia 83%-ze, anu fulis<br />

80%-ze meti ixdeba zaralianobis dafarvaze. Semosuli fulis minimum<br />

75% ixdeba sadazRvevo zaralis dafarvaze. es naTelia. piriqiT,<br />

problema aqvT sadazRvevo kompaniebs. zaralianobis amxela<br />

maCveneblis gaTvaliswinebiT aRar aris gasakviri, Tu ratom aris<br />

sadazRvevo sferos finansuri maCveneblebi uaryofiTi. es bunebrivia,<br />

radgan biznesis momgebianoba mcirdeba da xarjebi izrdeba.<br />

Tundac es hospitaluri mSenebloba. 200 milionze meti investiciaa<br />

gakeTebuli. es investiciebi aisaxeba aqtivebSic, pasiveb-<br />

Sic, mogeba-zaralSic da ase Semdeg<br />

rebis gamo. es mdgomareoba, rogorc zemoT<br />

aRvniSneT, nel-nela icvleba. dargs Zalian<br />

gauWirdeba im sadazRvevo premiebiT arseboba,<br />

romelic dRes aris. axla mTeli imedi,<br />

sadazRvevo SemTxvevebis ufro efeqtur mar-<br />

Tvazea. Zalian serizulad dgas kvalificiuri<br />

kadrebis problemac. adgilebze kvalif-<br />

44 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

`<br />

iciuri samedicino kadrebis moZieba Zalian<br />

Wirs.<br />

sadazRvevo<br />

seqtoris cifrebi<br />

2011 wlis 9 Tvis monacemebis mixedviT,<br />

moziduli premiis Tanxam 263 143 801 milion<br />

lari Seadgina.<br />

saidanac yvelaze<br />

didi wili, 168 153<br />

522 milioni lariTa<br />

da 64%-iT modis<br />

jandacvis dazRvevaze,<br />

Semdeg modis<br />

qonebis daz-<br />

Rveva mozidul premiaSi<br />

12.25%-iani wiliT<br />

(32 243 137 milioni<br />

lari), mesame<br />

adgilze ki saxmeleTo<br />

satransporto saSualebaTa dazRvevaa<br />

8%-iani wiliT (21 227 204 milioni<br />

lari). 2010 wlis bolosaTvis sadazRvevo<br />

seqtoris mier moziduli premia 361 457 160<br />

milion lars Seadgenda. saidanac janmrTelobis<br />

dazRvevaze modioda 245 796 219 milioni<br />

lari (moziduli premiis 68%).<br />

aSS-sTan Tavisufali vaWroba inestorebis<br />

mosazidad umniSvnelovanesi instrumentia<br />

saqarTvelos savaWro-samrewvelo palatis<br />

prezidentis kaxa bainduraSvilis gancxadebiT,<br />

aSS-sTan Tavisufali vaWroba inestorebis<br />

mosazidad umniSvnelovanesi instrumentia<br />

da qyveynis ekonomikuri zrdis-<br />

Tvis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi instrumenti.<br />

„aSS-i bolo sami wlis ganmavlobaSi<br />

saqarTvelosTvis mTavar savaWro partniorad<br />

gadaiqca. kerZod, 2010 wels daaxloebiT<br />

180 mln dolaris eqsporti iyo ganxorcielebuli.<br />

amasTan, aSS msoflioSi yvelaze ufro<br />

stabiluri, gadaxdis maRali unaris saeqsporto<br />

bazaria. bunebrivia, es xels Seuwyobs<br />

eqsportis ganviTarebas da investiciebis im<br />

seqtorebSi mozidvas, saidanac eqsportis warmoeba<br />

SeiZleba~, – ganacxada bainduraSvilma.<br />

misive TqmiT, aSS-is pirveli piris mier<br />

gakeTebuli gancxadeba nebismieri kerZo<br />

investorisTvis didi rwmenaa da<br />

Sesabamisad, isini investiciebs<br />

ufro Tamamad ganaxorcieleben.

eitingebi<br />

arareitinguli evropa<br />

s<br />

akredito reintingSi<br />

safrangeTi, avstria<br />

da kidev Svidi qveyana, romel-<br />

Ta Sorisac italia da safrangeTi<br />

moxvdnen, Standard &<br />

Poor’s (S&P)-is 2012 wlis 13<br />

ianvris SefasebiT, CamoqveiTdnen.<br />

aq `Tars~ ricxvs<br />

danaSauli ar miuZRvis da<br />

arc es informaciaa moulodneli.<br />

safrangeTisa da sxva<br />

danarCeni qveynebisaTvis sakredito<br />

reitingis Semcireba<br />

logikuri nabijia.<br />

axla evrozonis saxelmwifoebs<br />

Soris urTierToba<br />

axal safexurze gadadis.<br />

cxrili gviCvenebs Standard<br />

& Poor’s (S&P)-is reitingebs<br />

evro-zonisaTvis 1995 wlidan<br />

5-wliani intervaliT. cxrili<br />

naTlad mogviTxrobs<br />

mzardi progresis Sesaxeb,<br />

romelic gasuli dekadis Sua<br />

periodamde grZeldeba, rode- mTavari sakiTxia, Tu fiskalur politikaSi saersac<br />

erTiani valutis yvela rogor ganviTardeba es mod- To wesebis damkvidrebisad-<br />

17 wevri A da ufro maRali eli. krizisis adreul fami, rac misi strategiis<br />

SefasebiT sargeblobs. ra zaSi miiCnevdnen, rom evro- mixedviT, momavali krizise-<br />

Tqma unda, msoflios yvela zonis momavali azrTa sxvabis Tavidan acilebisken<br />

mdidari qveyana im droisdasxvaobiT daxasiaTdeboda, aris gamiznuli, savsebiT<br />

aTvis aSkarad karg ekonomikur<br />

`<br />

wevr qveynebs SeiZleba saer- SesaZlebelia valebis gaergaremos<br />

qmnida, reitingma evro To valuta hqonodaT, magram Tianebad `gadaiTargmnos~.<br />

sivrcis qveynebis kreditunar- maT aRar eqnebodaT sesxis Tu evrozona gaerTianebad<br />

ianobis uaryofiTi<br />

saldos Semcireba<br />

asaxa. es, egreT woaSS-Si acxadeben, rom axali bazrebi _ CineTi, brazilia, samxreT<br />

debuli,`konvergen- korea da taivani 2012 wels investorTa yuradRebis Rirsni gaxdeciuli<br />

TamaSis~ nabian, radgan es ekonomikebi ganagrZoben maTi monetaruli poliwili<br />

iyo.<br />

tikis principebis Serbilebas, 2012 wels investorebisTvis mniS-<br />

davalianebis vnelovani iqneba saimedo ekonomika da bazris xarisxi, ufro<br />

krizisis dawyebis didi yuradreba daeTmoba zrdaze orientebul globalur ekonomikas,<br />

Semdeg wevri qvey- radgan axal bazrebs naklebi sabiujeto deficiti aqvT dasavlenebi<br />

kvlav daib- Tis qveynebTan SedarebiT da aucilebel saxrsrebs floben saernen,<br />

TiTqos maT TaSoriso sisustis Casanacvelblad<br />

Soris saberZneTi<br />

gamoirCeoda, magram aSkarad Sesabamisi danaxarjebi. sa- darCeba, misi logikuri Sede-<br />

Canda, rom mas arc sxva qveyfrangeTis msgavsi qveynebi gi SesaZlebelia iyos `konebi<br />

CamorCebodnen. Standard naklebs gadaixdidnen, pornvergenciuli TamaSis~ sxva<br />

& Poor’s (S&P)-is dabalma tugaliis msgavsi qveynebi ki nairsaxeoba. warsulisgan<br />

Sefasebam qveynebis reaqcia bevrad mets.<br />

gansxvavebiT, arsebul mdgo-<br />

ufro gaamwvava.<br />

evrozonis miswrafeba mareobas ver uwodebT kon-<br />

`<br />

45

* 13 ianvris gancxadebis Semdeg<br />

wyaro: Standard & Poor’s<br />

vergenciuls, sadac yvela mi- aqvT axali wevrebis mimarT,<br />

`<br />

iswrafvis yvelaze kredi- reitingebi ki yuradRebas<br />

tunariani wevrobis safex- aqceven valebis gadanawileurisken.<br />

konvergenciuli, bas.<br />

evrozonis miswrafeba fiskalur politikaSi saerTo wesebis<br />

damkvidrebisadmi, rac misi strategiis mixedviT, momavali krizisebis<br />

Tavidan acilebisken aris gamiznuli, savsebiT SesaZlebelia<br />

valebis gaerTianebad `gadaiTargmnos~<br />

mimarTuli unda iyos saSualo<br />

da ara mowinave safexurisken,<br />

oqros qveynebs<br />

udidesi pasuxismgebloba<br />

46 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

`<br />

safrangeTisa da avstraliis<br />

mimarT Standard &<br />

Poor’s (S&P)-is verdiqti,<br />

romelic sxva wevr qveyneb-<br />

sac exeba, or Zalian gansxvavebul<br />

dinamikas moicavs.<br />

erTi aris gangrZobadi dabneuloba<br />

evrozonis saxelmwifoebs<br />

Soris, romelsac er-<br />

Tiani valutis danawevreba<br />

iwvevs qveynebSi. meore _<br />

konvergenciuli azris xelaxali<br />

kalibrizacia konfiguraciaSecvlilevrozonaSi,<br />

sadac AAA qveynebs ufro<br />

emuqrebaT mdgomareobis<br />

gauareseba sxva qveynebisgan,<br />

vidre sxva qveynebs AAA qveynebis<br />

mier daxmarebis miReba<br />

da reitingis gaumjobeseba.<br />

Tu asea, safrangeTis reitingis<br />

kleba ufro mniSvnelovania,<br />

vidre germaniis<br />

reitingis SenarCuneba. iqneb,<br />

germanias imaze adre unda<br />

ganecada reitingis<br />

kleba, sanam evros<br />

proeqts usafrTxodgamoacxadebdnen?<br />

Standard &<br />

Poor’s (S&P)-is Tanaxmad,<br />

evropis kavSiris liderebma<br />

evrozonis kriziss araswori<br />

diagnozi dausves da<br />

saberZneTis defolti aucileblad moxdeba<br />

saerTaSoriso sareitingo saagento Fitch-ma evrozonis<br />

5 saxelmwifos – italiis, espaneTis, belgiis, sloveniisa<br />

da kviprosis reitingebi Seamcira. sareitingo „sasjelis~<br />

Tavidan acileba mxolod irlandiam SeZlo, romlis reitingic<br />

ВВВ+ doneze damtkicda prognoziT „negatiuri.~<br />

saagentos pres-relizSi naTqvamia, rom italiis gr-<br />

Zelvadiani sakredito reitingi А+ dan А- mde Semcirda,<br />

belgiis АА+dan АА mde, espaneTis da sloveniis АА- dan<br />

А mde, kviprosis ki BBB dan BBB- mde prognoziT „negatiuri.~<br />

amgvarad, Fitch-ma Tavisi sityva Seasrula: jer kidev<br />

2011 wlis dekemberSi yvela am qveynis reitingi SesaZlo<br />

Semcirebis gadaxedvis siaSi iqna gadayvanili. saagentos<br />

specialistebma ganacxades, rom savaluto blokSi davalianebis<br />

krizisis mogvarebaSi progress ver xedaven. garda<br />

amisa, Fitch-i acxadebs, rom saberZneTis defolti aucileblad<br />

moxdeba da es siurprizi ar unda iyos. saagentos<br />

varaudiT, saubari iqneba kontrolirebad defoltze. SegaxsenebT:<br />

mimdinare wlis 13 ianvars kidev erTma gavlenianma<br />

saagentom Standard & Poor’s-ma evrozonis<br />

9 saxelmwios reitingebi Seamcira.

orientacia aiRes sabiujeto mzardi problebis<br />

mogvarebaze, romelic mTliani problemis<br />

mxolod erT nawils Seadgenda da<br />

sakmarisi yuradReba ar dauTmes krizisis<br />

gamomwvev siRrmiseul mizezebs: gansxvavebuli<br />

konkurentunarianoba evrozonis<br />

birTvis Semadgenel Zlier ekonomikebsa<br />

da periferiebs Soris, aseve uzarmazari<br />

saerTaSoriso valebi, rac am ufsklulidan<br />

iyo amoCrili. reformebi mxolod da<br />

mxolod fiskaluri simkacrisken iyo mimarTuli,<br />

rac TviT-<br />

damarcxebisiaraRad gadaiqca.<br />

evrozonis<br />

bankebi ki kapitalis<br />

gazrdas gaSmagebiTcdilobdnen,<br />

sagadasaxado<br />

balansis Sesamcirebladtrilionebs<br />

aqtivebSi flangavdnen, aSS-is<br />

investorebi axali problemis winaSe aRmoCndnen:<br />

iafad moepovebinaT evropuli vali<br />

an sxvagan ganexorcielebinaT investicia.<br />

`morgan stenlis~ analitikosebis gaTvliT,<br />

evropis safinanso institutebi momavali<br />

18 Tvis ganmavlobaSi aqtivebidan<br />

daaxloebiT 3 trilion dolars amoiReben,<br />

rom gamoimuSavon 115 mlrd dolari axal<br />

kapitalSi, evropis bankis xelmZRvaneloba<br />

maTgan moiTxovs defoltisgan dacvis berketis<br />

aspeqtSi ivnisisaTvis koleqtiur zrdas.<br />

amisaTvis, bankebi aqtivebs potenciuri<br />

myidvelebis misazidad dabal Sefasebas<br />

aZleven.<br />

evropaSi aSS-is investorebs optimisturad<br />

uyureben. 2011 wlis mesame kvartal-<br />

Si aSS-is pretenziebi evropelebis mimarT<br />

135 mlrd dolariT gaizarda gasul<br />

kvartalTan SedarebiT. amerikis safinanso<br />

firmebi da korporaciebi evropul<br />

valebs nTqaven da maT amoRebas sulmouTmenlad<br />

elian.<br />

myidvelebi ki frTxiloben! investorebi<br />

acxadeben, rom Tu hej-fondis menejeri<br />

xar, umjobesia Seni fuli evropul valebis<br />

bazars moarido, radgan awmyos Rirebulebas<br />

gverdiT recesiis aCrdili udgas. espaneTi,<br />

italia, saberZneTi da portugalia, aravin<br />

icis rodis dadgeba maTi defoltis dRe da<br />

arc is icis vinmem, rogor moiqceva am faqtis<br />

sapasuxod evropis kavSiris xelmZRvaneloba,<br />

es ori komponenti saxeucnobi<br />

jokris rols TamaSobs.<br />

reitingebi<br />

bazari imaze didxans<br />

SeiZleba darCes iracionaluri,<br />

vidre Tqven SeiZleba<br />

warmoidginoT<br />

hej-fondebi riskebs ar uSindebian, Tumca<br />

bevrma maTganma 2011 wels seriozuli<br />

dartyma miiRo. amis miuxedavad, bevr hejfonds<br />

damatebiTi riskis ar eSinia, rogorc<br />

wesi, hejirebis fondi sakmaod likviduria<br />

da marJas SeuZlia klientis fuli xangr-<br />

`investorebi acxadeben, rom Tu hej-fondis menejeri xar, umjobesia<br />

Seni fuli evropul valebis bazars moarido, radgan awmyos<br />

Rirebulebas gverdiT recesiis aCrdili udgas. espaneTi, italia,<br />

saberZneTi da portugalia, aravin icis rodis dadgeba maTi<br />

defoltis dRe da arc is icis vinmem, rogor moiqceva am faqtis<br />

sapasuxod evropis kavSiris xelmZRvaneloba, es ori komponenti<br />

saxeucnobi jokris rols TamaSobs<br />

`<br />

Zlivad Caketos, bazris arastabilurobas<br />

daelodos aqtivis Sefasebamde. swored ase<br />

iqceva bevri hej-fondi da bazris arastabilurobas<br />

potenciur upiratesobad miiCnevs.<br />

magram, usafrTxo, riskis dabali doniT gamor-<br />

Ceuli investicia ar aris aucileblad<br />

saWiro iaraRi 2012 wels fulis saSovnelad.<br />

aSS-Si acxadeben, rom axali bazrebi _<br />

CineTi, brazilia, samxreT korea da taivani<br />

2012 wels investorTa yuradRebis Rirsni<br />

gaxdebian, radgan es ekonomikebi ganagrZoben<br />

maTi monetaruli politikis principebis<br />

Serbilebas, 2012 wels investorebisTvis mniSvnelovani<br />

iqneba saimedo ekonomika da bazris<br />

xarisxi, ufro didi yuradreba daeTmoba<br />

zrdaze orientebul globalur ekonomikas,<br />

radgan axal bazrebs naklebi sabiujeto deficiti<br />

aqvT dasavleTis qveynebTan SedarebiT<br />

da aucilebel saxrsrebs floben saerTa-<br />

Soriso sisustis Casanacvleblad.<br />

biznes-subieqtTa<br />

ricxvi izrdeba<br />

2012 wlis ianvarSi saqarTveloSi 4196 biznes-subieqti<br />

daregistrirda.<br />

es maCvenebeli 2011 wlis imave Tvis monacems 7.7%-iT<br />

aRemateba, xolo wina TvesTan SedarebiT 22.7%-iT naklebia,<br />

rac sezonur faqtors ukavSirdeba: biznesis registraciis<br />

aspeqtiT ianvari minimaluri aqtiurobiT gamoirCeva.<br />

mimdinare wlis ianvarSi biznes-subieqtTa umetesoba<br />

individualuri mewarmis da SezRuduli pasuxismgeblobis<br />

sazogadoebis saxiT daregistrirda.<br />

47

azias umuSevroba<br />

emuqreba<br />

m<br />

soflios wamyvani ekonomistebi<br />

2012 wels<br />

msoflioSi ekonomikur recesias<br />

prognozireben. britaneli<br />

ekonomistebis varaudiT,<br />

recesia gardauvalia,<br />

maTi SefasebiT, momaval<br />

wels evropaSi mosalodnelia<br />

warmoebis vardna da zrdis<br />

tempebis Semcireba. 2011<br />

wlis Sedegebidan gamomdinare,<br />

msgavsi prognozi<br />

gasakviri ar aris. saagento<br />

Bloomberg-is cnobiT, gasuli<br />

wlis ganmavlobaSi investorebma<br />

msoflio safondo bir-<br />

Jebze 6,3 trilioni dolari<br />

dakarges, msoflio biznesis<br />

kapitalizacia ki 12,1%-iT<br />

Semcirda da 45,7 trilion<br />

dolaramde daeca. evropis<br />

centraluri bankis erT-erTi<br />

xelmZRvanelis, evald novotnis<br />

gancxadebiT, evrozona<br />

`rbili recesiis~ riskis qve- germaniis kancleris gan-<br />

Saa.<br />

cxadebiT, germania ar dauS-<br />

ekonomikuri krizisma evvebs evros gauqmebas, misi<br />

rozona evros gauqmebis sa- TqmiT, Tu romelime qveyana<br />

frTxis winaSe daayena. se- evros brunvidan amoiRebs,<br />

riozuli saSiSroeba emuqre- amiT evrozonas seriozul<br />

`<br />

ba germaniasac. TNS Emnid-is safrTxes miayenebs. germane-<br />

mier jer kidev seqtemberSi li eqspertTa nawili evros<br />

saagento Bloomberg-is cnobiT, gasuli wlis ganmavlobaSi investorebma<br />

msoflio safondo birJebze 6,3 trilioni dolari dakarges,<br />

msoflio biznesis kapitalizacia ki 12,1%-iT Semcirda da 45,7<br />

trilion dolaramde daeca. evropis centraluri bankis erT-erTi<br />

xelmZRvanelis, evald novotnis gancxadebiT, evrozona `rbili<br />

recesiis~ riskis qveSaa<br />

`<br />

Catarebuli gamokiTxvebis<br />

Tanaxmad, germanelTa naxevarze<br />

mets evros gauqmeba<br />

da erovnul valutaze dabruneba<br />

surda. evropis erTiani<br />

valutis gauqmebis safrTxem<br />

evropis liderebi seriozulad<br />

daafiqra.<br />

48 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

gauqmebas mxars uWers, nawilis<br />

gancxadebiT ki evros<br />

gadasarCenad evropul banks<br />

problemuri obligaciebis<br />

yidva unda daevalos, Semdeg<br />

evrozonis problemuri qveynebis<br />

biujetis xarjviT nawilze<br />

evrokomisiis kontro-<br />

li dawesdes da cvlilebebi<br />

Sevides evrokavSiris<br />

kanonmdeblobaSic. germaneli<br />

politikosisa da bundesTagis<br />

wevris, Teo vaigelis<br />

TqmiT ki, evros seriozuli<br />

safrTxe, pirvel rigSi, saberZneTSi<br />

elis.<br />

marTalia, evro-<br />

zonam 2011 wlis<br />

ivlissa da seqtemberSi<br />

0,2%-iani<br />

zrda ganicada, magram<br />

bolo ramdenime<br />

Tvea evropaSi<br />

ekonomikuri zrda<br />

ar SeiniSneba, rac<br />

msoflio wamyvan ekonomistebs<br />

saimedo prognozebis<br />

gakeTebis saSualebas ar<br />

aZlevs. sareitingo saagentom<br />

9 evropul qveyanas Seumcira<br />

reitingebi. Standard<br />

& Poor’s-ma safrangeTis gr-<br />

Zelvadiani sakredito reit

ingi erTi safexuriT, АААdan<br />

АА+-mde Seamcira. aseve<br />

Semcirda avstriis reitingi,<br />

italiis reitingma А-dan<br />

ВВВ+ mde daiwia, espaneTisam<br />

ki AA- dan А-mde negatiuri<br />

prognoziT, rac imas niSnavs,<br />

rom uaxloes momavalSi am<br />

qveynebis maCveneblebi kidev<br />

gadaixedeba. erTi safexuriT<br />

gauuaresdaT reitingi maltas,<br />

slovenias da slovakeTs,<br />

ori punqtiT kvipross da<br />

portugalias. igive darCa<br />

germaniis, niderlandebis,<br />

fineTis, luqsemburgis, belgiis<br />

da irlandiis reitingebi,<br />

Tumca negatiuri prognoziT.<br />

saagentos eqspertTa SefasebiT,<br />

evrozonis qveynebi<br />

arasakmaris nabijebs dgamen<br />

regionSi krizisis mosagvareblad.<br />

evropeli liderebi<br />

amerikul saagentos<br />

Sefasebebs arc amJamad<br />

iziareben (iseve rogorc<br />

evropis stabilurobis fondis<br />

reitingis gansazRvrs<br />

SemTxvevaSi) da acxadeben,<br />

rom evropam damoukidebeli<br />

sareitingo saagentoebi unda<br />

Seqmnas da ar unda daeyrdnos<br />

amerikul saagentoebs.<br />

Standard Poor’s-is gadawyvetilebas<br />

evrozonis 15 qveynidan<br />

9-sTvis reitingis Semcirebis<br />

Sesaxeb mc-<br />

dari uwoda evrokomisiamac.sapasuxod,<br />

S&P-is<br />

pres-mdivanma martin<br />

uinma uaryo<br />

mosazreba, imis<br />

Sesaxeb, rom saagentosgadawyvetileba,<br />

SesaZloa, politikuri<br />

motivebiT iyos nakarnaxevi<br />

da sakuTari organizaciis<br />

saerTaSoriso reputacias<br />

gausva xazi. mis TqmiT, saagentos<br />

gadawyvetileba gamoxatavs<br />

misi eqspertebis mosazrebas<br />

imis Sesaxeb, rom<br />

evrozonis qveynebis xelmZR-<br />

evrozonis krizisi<br />

vanelTa iniciativebi ar<br />

aris sakmarisi krizisis<br />

negatiuri Sedegebis kompensaciisTvis.<br />

reitingebis<br />

Semcirebis ZiriTadi faqtorebi<br />

dakreditebis pirobebis<br />

gauareseba, evrozonis<br />

sul ufro bevri qveynisTvis<br />

riskebis gazrda, ekonomikuri<br />

zrdis prognozis Semcireba<br />

da evrokav-<br />

Siris liderebs<br />

Soris krizisis gadalaxvis<br />

saerTo xedvis<br />

ararsebobaa.<br />

magram, SeiZleba<br />

iTqvas, rom evrozonis<br />

liderebis sapasuxo<br />

gamosvlebma Tavis<br />

Sedegi gamoiRo. Standard<br />

& Poor’s-is mier<br />

evrozonis qveynebisTvis<br />

reitingebis Semcireba<br />

bazrebisTvis<br />

TiTqmis SeumCneveli<br />

darCa. investorebi,<br />

romlebic am movlenas<br />

ukve ramdenime kviraa<br />

elodebodnen, kmayofilni<br />

darCnen politikosebis<br />

gancxadebiT<br />

imis Sesaxeb, rom situacia<br />

maTi kontrolis qveSaa. reitingebis<br />

Sokismomgvrel<br />

Semcirebebs safondo bazrebze<br />

panika ar gamouwvevia.<br />

piriqiT _ ZiriTadma evrop-<br />

ulma indeqsebma vaWroba<br />

mwvane zonaSi daasrules da<br />

saSualod 0,5-0,6%-iT<br />

moimates. investorebi daamSvida<br />

evropeli politikosebis<br />

gancxadebebma imis Sesaxeb,<br />

rom qveynebis reitingebis<br />

es Semcireba aranairad<br />

ar aisaxeba finansuri sta-<br />

bilizaciis evropuli fondis<br />

EFSF-is poziciebze.<br />

parizma investorebs sakuTari<br />

poziciebis simyare<br />

saqmiT daumtkica: qveynis finansTa<br />

saministrom reitingebis<br />

Semcirebidan ramdenime<br />

dReSi moklevadiani saxelmwifo<br />

valdebulebebi gay-<br />

evald novotni:<br />

evrozona `rbili<br />

recesiis~ riskis<br />

qveSaa<br />

ida. 8,6 miliardi dolaris<br />

saerTo moculobis instrumentebi<br />

vaWrobis monawileebma<br />

ramdenime wuTis ganmavlobaSi<br />

SeiZines. Sedegad,<br />

wliurma ganakveTma 0,406%<br />

`amerikeli finansisti evros kraxs prognozirebs. sorosi miiCnevs,<br />

rom es msoflio finansuri sistemisTvis katastrofa iqneba.<br />

misive SefasebiT, evros krizisi msofliosTvis ufro seriozulia,<br />

vidre 2008 wlis ekonomikuri krizisi iyo, radgan arsebobs Zalian<br />

didi albaToba imisa, rom evros krizisi jaWvuri reaqciiT gavrceldeba<br />

mTel msoflioSi<br />

`<br />

Seadgina, rac wina emisiaze<br />

mcire maCvenebelia, rodesac<br />

safrangeTi umaRles reitings<br />

flobda. safrangeTisa<br />

da avstriis mier reitingis<br />

dakargva ar asaxula maTi<br />

obligaciebis dinamikaze<br />

meorad bazarze. safrangeTis<br />

aTwlianma qaRaldebma<br />

49

`finansur organizaciebSi personalis Semcirebis globaluri<br />

tendencia aziasac miswvda, romelic jer kidev axlaxans bevri<br />

bankisTvis ganviTarebis prioritetuli mimarTuleba iyo. saqmiani<br />

aqtivobis Semcireba da kompaniebis mogebis kleba bankebis<br />

xelmZRvanelobebs aiZulebs, ara mxolod xarjebi Seamciron, aramed<br />

mTeli ganyofilebebi daxuron da axlaxans ayvanili TanamSromlebi<br />

gaaTavisuflon<br />

`<br />

saprocento ganakveTi reitingis<br />

Semcirebamde periodis<br />

doneze (3,07%) SeinarCunes.<br />

avstriis obligaciebis momgebianoba<br />

ki mxolod erTi<br />

sabaziso punqtiT, 3,17%-mde<br />

gaizarda.<br />

miuxedavad amisa, beberi<br />

kontinentis finansuri mdgomareoba<br />

kvlav Zalian saxifaToa.<br />

rTuli ekonomikuri<br />

situaciis gamo evropuli<br />

qveynebis xelisuflebebi<br />

mkacrad gaakritika amerikelma<br />

finansistma jorj sorosmac.<br />

evrozonaSi arsebuli<br />

krizisis gaRrmavebaSi brali<br />

man piradad germaniis<br />

kancler, angela merkelsac<br />

dasdo. amerikeli finansisti<br />

evros kraxs prognozirebs.<br />

sorosi miiCnevs, rom es<br />

msoflio finansuri sistemisTvis<br />

katastrofa iqneba.<br />

50 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

misive SefasebiT, evros krizisi<br />

msofliosTvis ufro seriozulia,<br />

vidre 2008 wlis<br />

ekonomikuri krizisi iyo, radgan<br />

arsebobs Zalian didi<br />

albaToba imisa, rom evros<br />

krizisi jaWvuri reaqciiT<br />

gavrceldeba mTel msoflioSi.<br />

magaliTad, aziis reginosaTvis<br />

umTavres riskad<br />

dRes evrozonis krizisi<br />

miiCneva, romelic bankebsa da<br />

evropis monetaruli sistemis<br />

erTianobas safrTxes<br />

uqmnis. mimdinare krizisi<br />

aris mTavari dabrkoleba<br />

aziaSi warmoebis ganviTarebisTvis.<br />

globalur bazrebze<br />

msgavsi sistemuri Soki<br />

iwvevs Sida zrdis meqanizmebis<br />

moSlas iseT qveynebSi,<br />

rogoricaa indoeTi da Cine-<br />

Ti.<br />

garda amisa,<br />

finansur organizaciebSi<br />

personalis<br />

Semcirebis globaluri<br />

tendencia<br />

aziasac miswvda,<br />

romelic jer kidev<br />

axlaxans bevri bankisTvisganviTarebis<br />

prioritetuli mimarTuleba<br />

iyo. saqmiani aqtivobis<br />

Semcireba da kompaniebis<br />

mogebis kleba<br />

bankebis xelmZRvanelobebs<br />

aiZulebs, ara mxolod xarjebi<br />

Seamciron, aramed mTeli<br />

ganyofilebebi daxuron<br />

da axlaxans ayvanili TanamSromlebi<br />

gaaTavisuflon.<br />

umsxvilesi evropuli da<br />

amerikuli bankebi aziaSi<br />

xarjebis Semcirebis gzebs<br />

eZeben. saubaria rogorc warmomadgenlobiTi<br />

xarjebis<br />

Sekvecaze, ise TanamSromlebis<br />

masStabur Semcirebaze,<br />

rasac aqamde dasavluri kompaniebi<br />

warmatebiT aridebdnen<br />

Tavs. Bank of America,<br />

Merrill Lynch-i mimdinare kvartalSi<br />

regionSi mmarTveli<br />

direqtorebis 20%-iT<br />

Semcirebas apireben.<br />

2012 weli saqarTveloSi<br />

investirebisTvis saukeTeso iqneba<br />

msoflio ekonomikaSi arsebuli krizisis<br />

fonze, saqarTvelos premier-ministri darwmunebulia,<br />

rom 2012 saqarTveloSi investiciis gansaxorcieleblad<br />

saukeTeso iqneba. nika gilauris<br />

ganmartebiT, amas ramdenime faqtori ganapirobebs.<br />

premieris TqmiT, upirvelesad, saqarTvelo<br />

regionis lojistikur, turistul, energetikul<br />

centrad Camoyalibda, aqvs Ria ekonomika, qveyana-<br />

Si korufciis dabali donea da saqarTveloSi<br />

makroekonomikuri stabilurobaa.<br />

gilauris gancxadebiT, rac unda problemuri<br />

iyos msoflioSi arsebuli viTareba, am 4<br />

parametris arsebobis SemTxvevaSi, stabilurobis<br />

SenarCuneba SesaZlebelia. premier-ministrma<br />

2011 weli gaixsena da aRniSna, rom is dasavleT-aRmosavleT<br />

evropisaTvis Zalian rTuli<br />

iyo, xolo saqarTvelom stabiluroba<br />

SeinarCuna.

manamde erT-erTi aziuri<br />

ganyofilebis daxurvis Sesaxeb<br />

Credit Suisse-ma ganacxada.<br />

gamonaklisi arc avstraliuri<br />

Macquarie Group-i gaxda,<br />

romelmac TanamSromlebis<br />

nawili daiTxova. analogiur<br />

zomebs mimarTa Morgan Stanley-m<br />

da espanurma BBVA-m, romlebic<br />

gasuli wlis Sua xanebamde<br />

regionSi sakuTar resurss<br />

aqtiurad zrdidnen.<br />

Dealogic-is monace-<br />

mebiT, azia-wynari<br />

okeanis regionSi<br />

aqciebis pirveladi<br />

ganTavsebis moculoba<br />

gasul<br />

wels 169 miliardi<br />

dolaridan 84<br />

miliard dolaramde<br />

Semcirda.<br />

Standard & Poor’s-is mier<br />

evrozonis 9 qveynisTvis reitingebis<br />

Semcirebis fonze,<br />

aziis sabirJo indeqsebic daeca.<br />

kerZod, iaponuri Nikkei<br />

1,6%-iT gaufasurda. taivanuri<br />

indeqsi ki 0,8%-iT Semcirda,<br />

miuxedavad moqmedi<br />

prezidentis meore vadiT<br />

evrozonis krizisi<br />

arCevisa, rac, analitikosebis<br />

azriT, dadebiTad unda<br />

asaxuliyo ekonomikis mdgomareobaze.<br />

gamomdinare iqidan, rom<br />

evrozonis krizisi aziidan<br />

eqsportis Semcirebas gamoiwvevs,<br />

aziuri valutebi erTmaneTis<br />

miyolebiT ufasurdebian.<br />

saTaveSi ki tailanduri<br />

batia. ianvris Sua<br />

ricxvebisaTvis Bloomberg-<br />

JPMorgan Asia Dollar indeqsi<br />

daeca da tailanduri bati<br />

bolo 17 Tvis manZilze yvelaze<br />

metad gaufasurda. daeca<br />

MSCI azia wynari-okeanis<br />

saaqcio indeqsi.<br />

`evropis valebis krizisis<br />

gamo SeSfoTeba investorTa<br />

Soris sul ufro<br />

Zlierdeba, isini riskis gaw-<br />

evas eridebian, es undobloba<br />

ki uaryofiTad aisaxeba<br />

aziuri eqsportisa da aziuri<br />

valutebis perspeqtivaze~<br />

_ ambobs hideki haiaSi,<br />

tokioSi iaponiis ekonomikis<br />

kvleviTi centris eqsperti.<br />

mimdinare wlis dasawyisSi<br />

erTmaneTis miyolebiT gaufasurda<br />

tailandis, bankogis,<br />

filipinebis da samxreT koreis<br />

valutebi.<br />

`gamomdinare iqidan, rom evrozonis krizisi aziidan eqsportis<br />

Semcirebas gamoiwvevs, aziuri valutebi erTmaneTis miyolebiT<br />

ufasurdebian. saTaveSi ki tailanduri batia. ianvris Sua ricxvebisaTvis<br />

Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar indeqsi daeca da tailanduri<br />

bati bolo 17 Tvis manZilze yvelaze metad gaufasurda. daeca<br />

MSCI azia-wynari okeanis saaqcio indeqsi<br />

`<br />

`win aris mniSvnelovani<br />

movlenebi, gansakuTrebul<br />

cvlilebebs veliT italiisa<br />

da espaneTisagan, aseve<br />

sxva qveynebis centraluri<br />

bankebis qmedebebisgan, amitomac<br />

valutiT movaWreebs ar<br />

gvsurs zedmet riskze wasla~<br />

_ acxadebs seulSi arsebuli<br />

koreis samrewvelo<br />

BBC-m evrokavSirisgan<br />

milionobiT dolaris miReba aRiara<br />

teleradiokorporacia BBC-m aRiara, rom bolo 4 wlis<br />

ganmavlobaSi evrokavSirisgan TiTqmis 5 milioni dolaris<br />

granti miiRo. garda amisa, 2003 wlidan kompanias evropis<br />

sainvesticio bankma 223 milioni dolaris kreditebi gadasca.<br />

did britaneTSi SiSoben, rom evropul dafinansebas,<br />

SesaZloa, telekompaniis mier evropaSi mimdinare movlenebis<br />

gaSuqebaze gavlena moexdina. britaneli deputatis<br />

dominik raabis TqmiT, kompaniis mier evrokavSirisgan<br />

fulis miReba eWvqveS ayenebs BBC-is saredaqcio politikis<br />

damoukideblobas.<br />

korporaciis oficialurma warmomadgenelma ki ganacxada,<br />

rom evrokavSirisgan miRebuli fuli kvleviTi<br />

proeqtebis dafinansebisTvis iyo gankuTvnili da isini<br />

miRebuli grantebis mcire wils Seadgenen. rac Seexeba<br />

evropuli bankis kreditebs, misi TqmiT, am Tanxebis miRebas<br />

mxolod komerciuli safuZveli hqonda da es faqti<br />

aranair gavlenas ar axdens saredaqcio politikaze.<br />

51

ankis savaluto dileri li<br />

iang hiuni.<br />

aziuri ekonomika<br />

2011-2012 wlebis mijnaze,<br />

aziis qveynebi ekonomikebi<br />

ganviTarebis sxvadasxva tendenciebiT<br />

xasiaTdebian.<br />

malaiziis eqsporti da war-<br />

moeba noembris bolosTvis da evropis ramdenime qvey-<br />

bolo oTxi Tvis ganmavlonis reitingis Semcirebis<br />

`<br />

baSi izrdeboda neli tempe- negatiuri gavlena iaponiis<br />

biT, filipinebis eqsporti ekonomikaze mosalodneli<br />

londonma mniSvnelovani nabiji gadadga iuaniT vaWrobis umsxviles<br />

centrad gadaqcevisken. aseTma transformaciam britane-<br />

Tis dedaqalaqi, SesaZloa, evrozonisgan naklebad damokidebuli<br />

gaxados adgilobriv bankebSi tanzaqciebis gazrdisa da aTasobiT<br />

axali samuSao adgilis Seqmnis gziT. specialuri SeTanxmeba am<br />

Temaze 18 ianvars, hongkongSi iqna miRweuli didi britaneTis<br />

finansTa ministr jorj osbornsa da hongkongis mTavar finansur<br />

maregulirebels norman Cans Soris<br />

ki bolo 7 Tvis ganmavlobaSi<br />

mcirdeboda. singapuris<br />

mTavrobis mier gamoTqmuli<br />

varaudis Tanaxmad, 2011 wlis<br />

5%-iani zrdisa da recesiis<br />

Semdgomi 2010 wlis 14.5%-iani<br />

mniSvnelovani winsvlis miuxedavad,<br />

2012 wels ekonomikuri<br />

zrda 1%-dan 3%-mde<br />

Semcirdeba.<br />

52 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

iaponiam, SesaZloa, evrozonis<br />

bedi gaiziaros, Tuki<br />

finansuri sistemis gajansa-<br />

Rebaze droulad ar izrunebs.<br />

aseTi gancxadebiT qveynis<br />

finansTa ministri Ziun<br />

aZumi gamovida. miuxedavad<br />

imisa, rom iaponur bankebSi<br />

evropis fasiani qaRaldebis<br />

wili SedarebiT mcirea<br />

`<br />

jorj sorosma<br />

krizisis<br />

gaRrmavebaSi<br />

brali angela<br />

merkels dasdo<br />

ar aris. analitikosebis umravlesoba<br />

qveynis finansur<br />

mdgomareobas kritikulad ar<br />

afasebs. Tumca mTavroba<br />

amzadebs zomebs, romlebic<br />

samomxmareblo gadasaxadis<br />

gaormagebas da socialuri<br />

dazRvevisa da sapensio reformis<br />

ganxorcielebas iTvaliswinebs.<br />

indoeTis rupia bolo<br />

periodSi myardeba. warmoeba<br />

indoeTSi 2011 wlis noemberSi<br />

gasuli wlis noemberTan<br />

SedarebiT 5.9%-iT<br />

gaizrda, maSin, roca oqtomberSi<br />

5.1%-iani kleba iyo<br />

dafiqsirebuli. eqspertTa<br />

SefasebiT, noembris warmatebuli<br />

Sedegebi ganapiroba<br />

indoeTis sarezervo bankis<br />

qmedebam, romelmac noembris<br />

dasawyisSi 2.92 miliardi<br />

aSS dolaris ucxouri valuta<br />

gayida. maSin roca<br />

rupia mkveTrad ecemoda. oqtomberSi<br />

es maCvenebeli<br />

mxolod 943 milioni aSS<br />

dolari iyo.<br />

CineTis valuta nelnela<br />

ufasurdeba. dekembridan<br />

moyolebuli iuani dolaris<br />

mimarT 0.38 procentuli<br />

punqtiT gaiufasurda.<br />

SegaxsenebT, rom 1994 wlis<br />

mere, iuanis yvelaze didi<br />

Tviuri gaufasureba dafiqsirda<br />

2010 wlis agvistoSi,<br />

0.48 procentuli punqtiT. samomxmareblo<br />

fasebis indeqsi<br />

CineTSi 2011 wlis dekemberSi<br />

2010 wlis analogiur<br />

periodTan SedarebiT 4.1%iT<br />

gaizrda.<br />

miuxedavad am tendenciebisa,<br />

iuani poziciebis msoflioSi<br />

nel-nela<br />

imyarebs. londonma<br />

mniSvnelovani<br />

nabiji gadadga iuaniT<br />

vaWrobis umsxviles<br />

centrad gadaqcevisken.<br />

aseTma<br />

transformaciam<br />

britaneTis dedaqalaqi,<br />

SesaZloa, evrozonisgannaklebad<br />

damokidebuli gaxados<br />

adgilobriv bankebSi tanzaqciebis<br />

gazrdisa da aTasobiT<br />

axali samuSao adgilis<br />

Seqmnis gziT. specialuri<br />

SeTanxmeba am Temaze 18 ianvars,<br />

hongkongSi iqna miRweuli<br />

didi britaneTis finansTa<br />

ministr jorj osbornsa<br />

da hongkongis mTavar finan

sur maregulirebels norman<br />

Cans Soris. mxareebma moilaparakes<br />

specialuri britanul-Cinuri<br />

forumis Seqmnaze,<br />

romlis mizanicaa sakliringo<br />

sistemebis Seqmnis<br />

saukeTeso gzebis moZebna,<br />

iuanSi nominirebuli finansuri<br />

instrumentebis SemuSaveba<br />

da am bazarze likvidurobis<br />

gazrda. savaraudod,<br />

„mrgvali magida~ weliwad-<br />

Si orjer Sekrebs finansuri<br />

seqtoris iseT msxvil warmomadgenlebs,<br />

rogorebicaa<br />

HSBC, Standard Chartered, Bank<br />

of China, Deutsche Bank da Barclays.<br />

CineTSi osbornis viziti<br />

pekinsa da londons<br />

Soris seqtemberSi miRweuli<br />

SeTanxmebis gagrZelebaa.<br />

CineTisTvis finansur<br />

partniorad londonis da<br />

ara, magaliTad, niu-iorkis<br />

SerCeva, SemTxveviTi ar aris:<br />

britanuli bankebis poziciebi<br />

aziaSi tradiciulad<br />

Zlieria. 2010 wels Standard<br />

Chartered-ma istoriaSi pirvelad,<br />

iuanSi nominirebuli,<br />

ucxouri kompaniis obliga-<br />

evrozonis krizisi<br />

ciebis emisia ganaxorciela.<br />

maSin McDonalds-ma wliuri<br />

3%-is ganakveTiT 30 milioni<br />

dolaris miReba SeZlo.<br />

londonis aRmosavlur-<br />

Ziun aZumi:<br />

iaponiam, SesaZloa,<br />

evrozonis bedi<br />

gaiziaros, Tuki<br />

finansuri sistemis<br />

gajansaRebaze<br />

droulad ar izrunebs<br />

ma orientaciam, SesaZloa,<br />

arsebiTad gaamyaros misi<br />

poziciebi planetis umsxvilesi<br />

finansuri centrebis<br />

siaSi. es gansakuTrebiT<br />

mniSvnelovania evrokavSir-<br />

Si didi britaneTis finansuri<br />

izolaciis safrTxis<br />

fonze, risi mizezic aris<br />

londonis uari, SemoiRos<br />

gadasaxadi finansur tran-<br />

zaqciebze. „hongkongTan<br />

saqmiani urTierTobebi londons<br />

SesaZleblobas miscems,<br />

gaafarTovos horizontebi da<br />

nawilobriv mainc gaTavisufldes<br />

evrozonaze damokide-<br />

evropa swor gzaze dgas<br />

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis direqtori, kristin<br />

lagardi miiCnevs, rom evrokavSiris saxelmwifoebi<br />

davalianebis krizisTan brZolis procesSi swor gzaze<br />

dganan. es mosazreba man davosSi mimdinare msoflio<br />

ekonomikur forumze gamosvlisas gamoTqva. „krizisis<br />

daZlevisTvis didi samuSao tardeba. Cven progresis<br />

mowmeni varT~, – xazi gausva fondis xelmZRvanelma.<br />

amasTan, lagardi aucileblad miiCnevs stabilurobis<br />

qmediTi meqanizmis Seqmnas.<br />

manamde davosSi gamosvlisas germaniis kanclerma<br />

angela merkelma ganacxada, rom germania gamodis savaluto<br />

fodis moTxovnis winaaRmdeg evropis stabilizaciis<br />

meqanizmis sakredito potencialis gazrdis Sesaxeb.<br />

„Cven vapirebT evros mxardaWeras, Tumca ver mogcemT<br />

imis garantias, rac Cvens ZalebSi ar aris. germanias ar<br />

surs carieli dapirebebis micema, radganac maTi arSesruleba<br />

iqneba Zlieri dartyma evropuli bazrebisTvis~,<br />

– ganacxada merkelma da aRniSna, rom evropisadmi<br />

ndoba Seirya.<br />

53

ulebisgan. amas, SesaZloa,<br />

Taviseburi diversifikacia<br />

vuwodoT. aq bevri ram Cinur<br />

mxarezea damokidebuli,<br />

romelic, rogorc Cans, Zalian<br />

pozitiuradaa ganwyobili<br />

aseTi proeqtisadmi da mzadaa<br />

am wamowyebaSi londons<br />

maqsimaluri mxardaWera aRmouCinos~,<br />

_ acxadebs Societe<br />

Generale-is ufrosi ekonomisti,<br />

braian hilardi.<br />

CineTis saxalxo bankis<br />

amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis prezidenti<br />

barak obama saerTaSoriso RonisZieba National Prayer<br />

Breakfast-ze sityviT gamovida, romlis drosac<br />

qristianul Rirebulebebze isaubra.<br />

misi TqmiT, is erTgulia qristianuli principisa,<br />

romelic susti da upovari adamianebis<br />

daxmarebas gulisxmobs. amasTan, obamam gamoTqva<br />

mzadyofna, uqoneli adamianebis dasaxmareblad<br />

uari Tqvas sikeTeebis nawilze – iseTebze,<br />

rogoricaa sagadasaxado SeRavaTebi. prezidentis<br />

TqmiT, ekonomikis kuTxiT, es gonivruli<br />

nabiji iqneba.<br />

obamam kidev erT qristianul principze<br />

gaamaxvila yuradReba, romlis mixedviTad, rac<br />

ufro uzrunvelyofilia adamiani, miT ufro xSir-<br />

54 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

monacemebiT, iuanSi saerTa-<br />

Soriso savaWro brunva<br />

yovelwliurad daaxloebiT<br />

330 miliard dolars Sead-<br />

gens. kidev 17,5 miliardi<br />

Cinur valutaSi nominirebul<br />

pirdapir ucxour investiciebze<br />

modis. Chatham<br />

House-is SefasebiT ki, ukve<br />

2020 wlisTvis iuanSi saer-<br />

TaSoriso savaWro brunva<br />

trilion dolars miaRwevs.<br />

rac Seexeba 2012 wlis<br />

prognozs, msoflio bankma<br />

globaluri ekonomikis zrdis<br />

prognozi Seamcira. bankis<br />

eqspertTa SeafsebiT, globaluri<br />

ekonomika 2012 wels<br />

2,5%-iT gaizrdeba. manamde msoflio<br />

banki varaudobda, rom<br />

msoflio ekonomika wels 3,6%iT<br />

gaizrdeboda. bankma 2013<br />

wlis prognozic Seamcira _<br />

3,6-dan 3,1%-mde. ganviTarebadi<br />

qveynebis mSp 5,4%-iT gaizrdeba<br />

da ara 6,2-iT, rogorc msoflio<br />

banki manamde prognozirebda.<br />

ganviTarebul qveynebSi<br />

ki ekonomikis zrda mxolod<br />

2,4%-iani iqneba.<br />

msoflio vaWrobis moculoba<br />

2012 wels 4,7%-iT<br />

moimatebs, manamde ki banki<br />

6,6%-ian zrdas varaudobda.<br />

globaluri ekonomikisTvis<br />

ZiriTad safrTxeebad ki banki<br />

evrozonis krizissa da<br />

msoflio finansuri sistemis<br />

mowyvladobas asaxelebs.<br />

evropis savalo krizisi pirvelad<br />

2010 wels gamoikveTa,<br />

rodesac defoltis zRvarze<br />

saberZneTi aRmoCnda. qveynis<br />

saxelmwifo vali mSp-is 130%s<br />

Seadgenda. miuxedavad<br />

evrokavSiris mier miRebuli<br />

zomebisa, male dartymis qveS<br />

sxva evropuli qveynebi aRmoCndnen.<br />

obamam sakuTari ekonomikuri xedvebi<br />

qristianuli principebiT axsna<br />

ad unda gaunawilos man simdidre garSemo myofebs.<br />

Statebis prezidentis sityva mis mimarT respublikuri<br />

partiis kritikis fonze gaisma. am<br />

ukanasknelT ar moswonT prezidentis mcdeloba,<br />

uzrunvelyofili amerikelebis xarjze sagadasaxado<br />

Semosavlebi gazardos. es punqti erTerTi<br />

sadavo momentia, ris gamoc respublikelebi<br />

da demokratebi didi xnis ganmavlobaSi ver axerxebdnen<br />

SeTanxmebas saxelmwifo xarjebis Semcirebaze.<br />

Sedegad amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi<br />

sabiujeto krizisis zRvarze aRmoCnda. obamas<br />

gamosvla aseve daemTxva winasaarCevno saprezidento<br />

kampanias.

msoflio ekonomika<br />

zrdis bumi<br />

ganadgurebas<br />

udebs saTaves<br />

2<br />

yvelaze cudi scenariT<br />

011 wlis Sedegebis<br />

mixedviT, amerikis<br />

ekonomikam mniSvnelovan<br />

zRvars gadaabija da qveynis<br />

saxelmwifo valma II msoflio<br />

omis Semdgom pirvelad<br />

gadaaWarba qveynis mSp-s. 2012<br />

wlis dasawyisisTvis aSS-is<br />

vali 15,23 trilion dolaramde<br />

gaizarda. qveyana mevale-rekordsmeni<br />

qveynebis<br />

klubSi Sevida, vali ekonomikis<br />

moculobas aRemateba.<br />

bolo periodSi mSp-is 100%ze<br />

maRali vali hqondaT mxolod<br />

iaponias, italias, portugaliasa<br />

da saberZneTs.<br />

aSS-is ekonomika (rogorc<br />

britaneTisa da kapitalizmis<br />

msgavsi modelis mqone<br />

sxva qveynebs) aqamde ganicdis<br />

Zlieri riskebis zriT<br />

gamowveul kriziss. cno-<br />

`<br />

bilma amerikelma ekonomistma,<br />

haimen minskma 1986 wels<br />

gamoaqveyna wigni<br />

`arastabiluri ekonomikebissta-<br />

ekonomikuri keTildReobis xangrZlivoba ekonomikis simyifes<br />

bilzacia~, sadac zrdis: adamianebi, romlebic investiciebisa da danazogebis Sesax-<br />

man SemogvTavaza eb gadawyvetilebebs iReben, safrTxeebs srulad ver afaseben da<br />

safinanso arasta- TavianT SesaZleblobebs gadaWarbebiT uyureben. ase rom, zrdis<br />

bilurobishi- bumi ganadgurebas udebs saTaves<br />

poTeza. misi azriT,<br />

valebis done udris iReben, safrTxeebs srulad ver afaseben da TavianT Sesaekonomikis<br />

sisustes da aseve Zleblobebs gadaWarbebiT uyureben. ase rom, zrdis bumi<br />

ganisazRvreba ekonomikuri ganadgurebas udebs saTaves.<br />

ciklebiT. ekonomikuri ke- 2008-2009 wlis winandeli dekada kerZo kreditis gafar-<br />

TildReobis xangrZlivoba Toebis periodi gaxda. es exeba rogorc kompaniebs, aseve<br />

ekonomikis simyifes zrdis: Sinameurneobebs, gansakuTrebiT aSS-Si, did britaneTSi,<br />

adamianebi, romlebic inves- irlandiasa da xmelTaSua zRvis qveynebSi. sakredito bumi<br />

ticiebisa da danazogebis efuZneboda uZrav qonebaze fasebis zrdas, igi ganviTarebu-<br />

Sesaxeb gadawyvetilebebs li qveynebis mosaxleobas aZlevda ufro meti simdidris<br />

`<br />

55

devid kameroni:<br />

qveynis saxelmwifo valis<br />

Semcireba imaze rTuli<br />

aRmoCnda, vidre Cems gundSi<br />

vinmes SeeZlo warmoedgina<br />

`aSS-is uZravi qonebis bazarma stabilizebis niSnebi aCvena:<br />

axali proeqtebis ricxvis Semcireba Sewyda, xolo fasebis vardna,<br />

prognozebis mixedviT, 2012 wlisTvis unda dasruldes. es niSnavs,<br />

rom aSS-is ekonomika SeZlebs zrdas daubrundes. Tumca, SezRudulad.<br />

amis damabrkolebel faqtorebad SeiZleba iqces saxelmwifo<br />

xarjebis Semcireba, sakredito pauzis gagrZeleba, evrozonis kolafsis<br />

riskebi da savaraudod, situacia navTobis bazarze<br />

SegrZnebas, rac ufro didi sesxis aRebis SesaZleblobas<br />

iZleoda. rogorc ki uZravi qonebis bazarze buSti CaifuSa,<br />

aman fiskaluri deficitis mkveTri zrda gamoiwvia _ faqtiurad<br />

avtomaturad.<br />

sabiujeto deficitebis mkveTri zrda im sami meqanizmidan<br />

erT-erTi gaxda, romelmac xeli SeuSala dasavlur<br />

ekonomikebs ganmeorebiT did depresiaSi gadaSvebuliyvnen,<br />

safinanso intervenciebTan da saprocento ganakveTebis<br />

56 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

`<br />

mkveTr SemcirebasTan kombinaciaSi.<br />

roca fulis Rirebuleba<br />

nulTan axlos aris<br />

(realur gamoxatulebaSi<br />

uaryofiTic ki) gadamxdelunarian<br />

saxelmwifoebs sabiujeti<br />

deficiti daexmara<br />

erToblivi moTxovnis Senar-<br />

CunebaSi, aseve kerZo davalianebis<br />

Semcirebis procesis<br />

stimulirebaSi da kerZo aqtivebis<br />

xarisxis gaumjobesebaSi.<br />

kerZo seqtori Tavs axla<br />

bevrad ukeT grZnobs. ase magaliTad,<br />

2011 wlis<br />

bolsoTvis safinanso<br />

seqtoris valis<br />

mimaTeba mSpsTan<br />

aSS-Si dabrunda<br />

2001 wlis<br />

doneze. xolo Sinameurneobebisvalis<br />

done _ 2003<br />

wlis maCvenebels<br />

miuaxlovda.<br />

garda amisa, aSS-is uZravi<br />

qonebis bazarma stabilizebis<br />

niSnebi aCvena: axali<br />

proeqtebis ricxvis Semcireba<br />

Sewyda, xolo fasebis<br />

vardna, prognozebis mixedviT,<br />

2012 wlisTvis unda das-<br />

germanias saberZneTis evrozonis<br />

gareT xilva ar surs<br />

saberZneTma Tavidan unda aicilos is mZime<br />

krizisi, romelic uaxloes momavalSi elis<br />

da safrTxe, rom saberZneTi evrozonas datovebs,<br />

aRar unda arseobobdes. winaaRmdeg<br />

SemTxvevaSi, evropa saberZneTis ar daexmareba.<br />

amis Sesaxeb germaniis finansTa ministrma<br />

volfgan Soiblem davosis forumze gamosvlisas<br />

ganacxada.<br />

finansTa ministris am gancxadebas dadebiTi<br />

reaqciebi mohyva italiis, espaneTisa da<br />

safrangeTis mxridan. maTi warmomadgenlebis<br />

TqmiT, isini saberZneTis kreditorebTan aqtiur<br />

molaparakebebs daiwyeben, raTa qveyana<br />

Waobidan amoiyvanon. safrangeTis finansTa<br />

ministris gancxadebiT, evropas yovelTvis mzad<br />

unda hqondes samaSvelo meqanizmi<br />

rigi qveynebis, am SemTxvevaSi ki<br />

saberZneTis dasaxmareblad.

uldes. es niSnavs, rom aSS-is ekonomika SeZlebs zrdas<br />

daubrundes. Tumca, SezRudulad. amis damabrkolebel faqtorebad<br />

SeiZleba iqces saxelmwifo xarjebis Semcireba,<br />

sakredito pauzis gagrZeleba, evrozonis kolafsis riskebi<br />

da savaraudod, situacia navTobis bazarze.<br />

amerika elodeba<br />

eqspertebi fiqroben, rom yvela SemTxvevaSi, am zrdisgan<br />

ar SeiZleba mdgradobas velodoT, radgan es zrda<br />

daubalansebel ekonomikaSi moxdeba, romelic advilad Sei-<br />

Zleba axal recesiaSi gadaeSvas. saqme mxolod sagareo<br />

Sokebs ar exeba, iseTs, rogoric aris evrozonis krizisi,<br />

romelsac xelewifeba aSS-is safinanso sistemis paralizeba<br />

da eqsportis Semcireba. narCundeba mniSvnelovani<br />

Sida riskebic. aSS-is federaluri sarezevro sistemis ekonomistis,<br />

jeremi nalivekis am cota xnis win gamoqveynebuli<br />

gamokvleva aCvenebs, rom qveynis ekonomika 2012 welSi `gaCerebis<br />

siswrafiT~ Sevida. mkvlevarma aRmoaCina, rom aSS-Si<br />

bolo 60 wlis manZilze 70%-is SemTxvevaSi, roca mSp-is<br />

realuri zrda wina welTan SedarebiT 2%-ze dabla eSveboda,<br />

Semdeg weliwads recesia xdeboda. amis ZiriTadi<br />

mizezi is aris,<br />

rom 2%-s qvemoT<br />

ekonomikuri zrdis<br />

pirobebSi qveyanaSi<br />

izrdeba umuSevroba,<br />

xolo<br />

biznesi investirebas<br />

wyvets, rac<br />

qmnis TviTdamWer<br />

negatiur trends<br />

(Tavidan fsiqologiuri,<br />

xolo Semdgom<br />

ekonomikuri). 2011 wlis I naxevarSi aSS-is mSp-is<br />

realuri zrda 2%-s qvemoT iyo. Tumca, III kvartalSi mSp-m<br />

saSiS niSnulamde aiwia, es SeiZleba arasakmarisi aRmoCndes,<br />

rom ekonomika sarisko zonidan gamovides. davalianebis<br />

maRali donis SenarCuneba tempebis aRdgenas daabrkolebs.<br />

aSS-is mSp-s zrdis konsesus-prognozi 2013-2016 wlebisTvis<br />

mxolod 2,2%-s Seadgens weliwadSi (swored im saSiS zonasTan<br />

axlos). es mniSvnelovnad dabalia ara mxolod<br />

1990-iani wlebis saSualo tempebTan SedarebiT (3,2% weliwadSi),<br />

aramed winakrisizul aTwleulSi (2,7%). zrdis aRmdgen<br />

fazaSi tempi, rogorc wesi, Cveulebrivze maRalia, radgan<br />

kompaniebs SeuZliaT gamoiyenon adre dautvirTavi simZlavreebi,<br />

SedarebiT iafad aiyvanon mravalricxovani umuSevari<br />

adamianebi, aseve, gamoiyenon kapitali, romlis investireba ar<br />

xdeboda krizisis periodSi.<br />

aSS-is ekonomikis fundamentaluri mdgomareoba sakmaod<br />

urTierTsawinaaRmdegoa. erTi mxriv, saxelmwifo finansebi<br />

amazrzen mdgomareobaSia da savsebiT gaugebaria,<br />

masTan mimarTebaSi ra SeiZleba moxerxdes. ekonomikis zrdis<br />

arc Tu maRali tempebi TiTqmis SeuZlebels xdis sabiujeto<br />

deficitis kuTxiT gacxadebuli gegmebis Sesrulebas.<br />

saxelmwifos mouwevs rTuli arCevanis gakeTeba: Seamciros<br />

msoflio ekonomika<br />

ukanasknel wlebSi aSS-is biujetis<br />

deficiti Seadgens mSp-is 8-10%-s.<br />

aSS-m faqtobrivad dakarga<br />

kontroli Tavis valze. zrdis<br />

SenarCuneba xerxdeba mxolod<br />

ekonomikis fuliT gajerebis xarjze<br />

aSS-is saxelmwifo vali<br />

%, mSp<br />

wyaro: aSS-is federaluri<br />

`<br />

sarezervo sistema (fss)<br />

aSS-Si ekonomikis zrdis arc Tu maRali tempebi TiTqmis Seu-<br />

Zlebels xdis sabiujeto deficitis kuTxiT gacxadebuli gegmebis<br />

Sesrulebas. saxelmwifos mouwevs rTuli arCevanis gakeTeba: Seamciros<br />

saxelmwifo xarjebi an aswios gadasaxadebi. aq gasaTvaliswinebelia<br />

didi britaneTis sul axali gamocdileba. saxelmwifo<br />

xarjebis Semcireba iqamde, vidre ekonomikuri zrda ar daubrundeba<br />

mdgrad traeqtorias, saSiSia _ amiT mxolod umuSevroba<br />

izrdeba da mcirdeba erToblivi moTxovna. balansirebis sirTuleebi<br />

ukve britaneTis xelisuflebamac aRiara<br />

`<br />

aSS-is finansuri seqtori da<br />

Sinameurneobebi amcireben<br />

TavianT valebs, didwilad imis<br />

xarjze, rom mTavroba _ zrdis<br />

%, mSp<br />

finansuri<br />

seqtori<br />

wyaro: aSS-is fss<br />

Sinameurneobebi<br />

mTavroba arafinansuri seqtori<br />

57

saxelmwifo xarjebi an<br />

aswios gadasaxadebi. aq<br />

gasaTvaliswinebelia didi<br />

britaneTis sul axali gamocdileba.<br />

saxelmwifo xarjebis<br />

Semcireba iqamde, vidre<br />

ekonomikuri zrda ar<br />

daubrundeba mdgrad traeqtorias,<br />

saSiSia _ amiT mxolod<br />

umuSevroba izrdeba<br />

da mcirdeba erToblivi<br />

moTxovna. balansirebis<br />

sirTuleebi ukve britaneTis<br />

xelisuflebamac aRiara.<br />

nomebris bolos didi britaneTis<br />

premier-ministrma,<br />

devid kameronma ganacxada,<br />

`qveynis saxelmwifo valis<br />

Semcireba imaze rTuli aRmoCnda,<br />

vidre Cems gundSi<br />

vinmes SeeZlo warmoedgina~.<br />

ase rom, amocanas, romelic<br />

aSS-is winaSe dgas, rTuli<br />

gadasawyvetia.<br />

meore mxriv ki, amerikis<br />

fulad-savaluto politika<br />

58 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

savsebiT adeqvaturia. federalurma<br />

sarezervo sistemam<br />

ekonomika fuliT zedmetad<br />

gaajera da es kerZo seqtors<br />

SesaZleblobas aZlevs Seamciros<br />

vali, xolo saxelmwifos<br />

_ sesxis Rirebuleba<br />

Seamciros da moemsaxuros<br />

saxelmwifo vals. aseTi midgoma<br />

ekonomikas zedapirze<br />

`aSS-Si bolo 60 wlis manZilze 70%-is SemTxvevaSi, roca mSp-is<br />

realuri zrda wina welTan SedarebiT 2%-ze dabla eSveboda, Semdeg<br />

weliwads recesia xdeboda. amis ZiriTadi mizezi is aris, rom<br />

2%-s qvemoT ekonomikuri zrdis pirobebSi qveyanaSi izrdeba<br />

umuSevroba, xolo biznesi investirebas wyvets, rac qmnis TviTdamWer<br />

negatiur trends (Tavidan fsiqologiuri, xolo Semdgom<br />

ekonomikuri)<br />

`<br />

fulis mimoqcevis siCqaris mkveTri<br />

Semcireba mianiSnebs imaze, rom<br />

aSS-is ekonomikuri eqspansiis<br />

periodi finansuri teqnologiebis<br />

ganviTarebis bazaze dasrulda<br />

fulis mimoqcevis siCqare (M2)<br />

nominaluri kvartaluri mSp-is<br />

mimarTeba saSualokvartalur M2-Tan<br />

wyaro: aSS-is fss<br />

tivtivis saSualebas aZlevs,<br />

magram ekonomikuri zrdis axali<br />

talRis agorebis garantias<br />

ver iZleva, rogorc es<br />

iaponiis gamocdilebam aCvena<br />

_ iaponelebi aTwleulze<br />

metia, rac nulovani ganakveTiT<br />

cxovroben. amerikis<br />

ekonomikaSi fulis moZraobis<br />

siCqare istoriul minimumamde<br />

daeca, es ki niSnavs,<br />

rom ZiriTadi moTamaSeebi<br />

jerjerobiT molodinis<br />

reJimSi arian, radgan koniunqturis<br />

ramdenadme gaumjobesebas<br />

ganixilaven, rogorc<br />

Zalian<br />

myarebis mravalwliani tendencia<br />

misi savaWro partniori<br />

qveynebis valutebis mimarT,<br />

dairRva. es ki SesaZleblobas<br />

iZleva amerikis teritoriaze<br />

samuSao adgilebi<br />

dabrundes. ganviTarebad qveynebSi<br />

warmoebis ganTavseba<br />

ukve arc ise rentabeluria,<br />

rogorc ramdenime wlis win.<br />

am qveynebSi keTi-<br />

ldReobis zrdam,<br />

pirvel rigSi, CineTSi,<br />

iq warmoebuli<br />

produqciis<br />

TviTRirebulebis<br />

zrda gamoiwvia.<br />

dolaris dasusteba<br />

mxolod amyarebs<br />

amerikuli sawarmoebis<br />

konkurentunarianobis<br />

tendencias. garda amisa,<br />

politikuri amocana _ samuSao<br />

adgilebis `reimporti~<br />

ukve dRis wesrigSi dadga.<br />

kompaniebs, romlebic aSS-Si<br />

samuSao adgilebs qmnian, ukve<br />

arc Tu urigo sagadasaxado<br />

SeRavaTebi eZlevaT. prezident<br />

barak obamas mier<br />

inicirebuli gegmis Rirebuleba<br />

fasdeba naxevar<br />

trilion dolarad. xolo<br />

ianvris dasawyisSi obama<br />

xalxs dahpirda, rom daasabuTebda<br />

aSS-Si investire-<br />

aramdgrads imi- pirvelad ramdenime aTwleulis<br />

sTvis, rom `brZo- ganmavlobaSi dolaris realurma<br />

laSi gadaeSvan~.<br />

kursma Sewyvita zrda<br />

eqspertebi amboben,<br />

aSS dolaris kursi, gaangariSebuli<br />

rom zrdis axali urTierTvaWrobis gaTvaliswinebiT<br />

talRis inicireba<br />

mxolod bizness<br />

SeuZlia,<br />

roca is ganvi-<br />

Tarebis axal<br />

strategias Seimu-<br />

Savebs, magram aqamde,<br />

rogorc eqspertebs<br />

miaCniaT,<br />

jer Sors aris.<br />

mlrd dol.<br />

biznesis dax-<br />

yvela savaWro partniori qveynis valutasTan<br />

marebadasustebul erovnul garda im qveynebis valutebisa, romlebsac<br />

aqvT farTo moxmareba sazRvargareT<br />

valutasac Seu-<br />

Zlia. dolaris ga- wyaro: aSS-is fss

is upiratesobebze da bizness<br />

arwmunebda samuSao adgilebis<br />

Seqmnis upiratesobaze<br />

auTsorsingis strategiis<br />

sawinaaRmdegod. ara myisierad,<br />

magram aseTi strategia<br />

ramdenime wlis Semdeg<br />

TvalnaTel Sedegs moitans.<br />

aRsaniSnia, rom bolo wleb-<br />

Si aSS-is sagadamxdelo balansis<br />

deficiti mniSvnelovanad<br />

Semcirda. aSS-is nawilobrivireindustrialiazacia<br />

SeiZleba ekonomikuri<br />

zrdis axali talRis erTerTi<br />

Semadgeneli gaxdes.<br />

yvelaze cudi<br />

scenariT<br />

amerikis<br />

fonze, evrokavSir-<br />

Si situacia bevradSemaSfoTeblad<br />

gamoiyureba.<br />

miuxedavad imisa,<br />

rom liderebi<br />

yvelanairad cdiloben,<br />

erTiani<br />

evropuli valuta<br />

SeinarCunon,<br />

barak obama<br />

msoflio ekonomika<br />

`amerikis fulad-savaluto politika savsebiT adeqvaturia. federalurma<br />

sarezervo sistemam ekonomika fuliT zedmetad gaajera<br />

da es kerZo seqtors SesaZleblobas aZlevs Seamciros vali, xolo<br />

saxelmwifos _ sesxis Rirebuleba Seamciros da moemsaxuros saxelmwifo<br />

vals. aseTi midgoma ekonomikas zedapirze tivtivis<br />

saSualebas aZlevs, magram ekonomikuri zrdis axali talRis agorebis<br />

garantias ver iZleva, rogorc es iaponiis gamocdilebam<br />

aCvena _ iaponelebi aTwleulze metia, rac nulovani ganakveTiT<br />

cxovroben<br />

`<br />

inglisis parlamentis Senoba SesaZloa<br />

rusma an Cinelma investorma iyidos<br />

didi britaneTis xelisuflebam, SesaZloa, vestmisteris sasaxle<br />

rus an Cinel investorebs mihyidos. aseTi moulodneli<br />

gadawyvetileba SeiZleba miRebul iqnas imis gamo, rom Senoba,<br />

romelSic britanuli parlamentia ganTavsebuli, ingreva da temzaSi<br />

iZireba. rekonstruqcia ki gadamxdelebs miliardi girvanqa<br />

sterlingi daujdebodaT.<br />

The Telegraph-is informaciiT, istoriul nagebobas safrTxe<br />

emuqreba. imis gamo, rom mas wyali faravs, big-beni 18 diumiT<br />

gadaixara. Senobis gadarCenis gegmebs Soris ganixileba misi<br />

rusi an Cineli investorebisTvis miyidvis SesaZlebloba. aseT<br />

SemTxvevaSi, parlamenti saxelmwifo sakuTrebaSi myof romelime<br />

SenobaSi an sulac axal nagebobaSi gadava. im SemTxvevaSi<br />

ki, Tu misi rekonstruqcia gadawydeba, specialistebis TqmiT,<br />

amisTvis ramdenime weli iqneba saWiro.<br />

vestmisteris sasaxle meTerTmete saukuneSia aSenebuli. 1834<br />

wlis xanZris Semdeg is xelaxla aages. nageboba TandaTanobiT<br />

wyalSi Cadis, risi mizezic metropolitenis xazis<br />

gagrZeleba da miwisqveSa parkingis mowyobaa.<br />

59

maqsimumTan SedarebiT amerikis<br />

mimdinare sagadasaxdelo balansis<br />

deficiti TiTqmis orjer Semcirda.<br />

miuxedavad uzarmazari<br />

absoluturi sididisa, igi Seadgens<br />

aSS-is mSp-s mxolod 3%-s<br />

60 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

damoukidebeli ekonomistebi<br />

miiCneven, rom evrozonis<br />

daSlis SesaZlebloba sakmaod<br />

dasaSvebia. Economist<br />

Intelligence Unit (EIU)-is kvleviTi<br />

centri miiCnevs, rom<br />

40%-iani albaTobiT uaxloesi<br />

ori wlis ganmavlobaSi<br />

evrozona daiSleba. misi daSlis<br />

SemTxvevaSi (gaerTianebidan<br />

calkeuli wevrebis<br />

gasvlisasac), evrozonis<br />

ekonomikaSi moxdeba mSp-is<br />

10-dan 25%-mde Semcireba. amas<br />

gamoiwvevs sabanko sistemis<br />

kolafsi da seriozuli korporatiuli<br />

gakotrebebi _<br />

msgavsi araferi momxdara<br />

2008 wels investbank Lehman<br />

Brothers-is kraxis Sem-<br />

`mlrd dol. prognozi<br />

wyaro: aSS-is fss<br />

amerikis fonze, evrokavSirSi situacia bevrad SemaSfoTeblad<br />

gamoiyureba. miuxedavad imisa, rom liderebi yvelanairad cdiloben,<br />

erTiani evropuli valuta SeinarCunon, damoukidebeli<br />

ekonomistebi miiCneven, rom evrozonis daSlis SesaZlebloba sakmaod<br />

dasaSvebia. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)-is kvleviTi centri miiCnevs,<br />

rom 40%-iani albaTobiT uaxloesi ori wlis ganmavlobaSi<br />

evrozona daiSleba<br />

`<br />

movaleTa reestris<br />

Canawerebi isev izrdeba<br />

movaleTa reestrSi Canawerebis raodenoba isev mzardia. aRsrulebis<br />

biuros oficialuri monacemebiT, dReisTvis reestrSi 59 aTasze meti Canaweri<br />

fiqsirdeba, rac wlis bolos arsebul maCvenebelze 3 aTasiT metia.<br />

gasul wels movaleTa reestrSi Canawerebis raodenoba rekorduli<br />

40 aTasiT gaizarda. reestri 2010 wlis ianvridan amoqmedda. igi monacemTa<br />

erTiani bazaa, romelSic davalianebis mqone yvela fizikuri<br />

da iuridiuli piri xvdeba. aRsrulebis biuro movales sasamar-<br />

Tlos gadawyvetilebis Semdeg valis dasafarad 7 dRes aZlevs.<br />

winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi uZrav-moZrav qonebas uyadaRebs.<br />

deg. evrozonis qveynebsa da<br />

kompaniebs Soris bevri komerciuli<br />

kontraqti iuridiul<br />

gaurkvevlobaSi aRmoCndeba.<br />

evropis mniSvnelovan<br />

nawilSi da, savaraudod,<br />

mTlianad msoflio ekonomikaSi<br />

dairRveva teqnologiuri<br />

jaWvi (ufro masStaburi,<br />

vidre es iyo iaponuri<br />

avtokoncernisTvis 2011 wlis<br />

miwisZvris Sedegebi). evrozonis<br />

SedarebiT metad dazaralebul<br />

qveynebSi SesaZlebelia<br />

samrewvelo warmoeba<br />

saerTod Sewydes.<br />

mTavrobis Semosavlebi gadasaxadebidan<br />

mniSvnelovnad<br />

Semcirdeba, radganac kompaniebis<br />

Semosavlebi gaqreba<br />

da milionobiT<br />

TanamSromels gaaTavisuflebensamsaxuridan.evrozonis<br />

yvela qveyana-<br />

Si savale tvirTi<br />

mkveTrad gaizrdeba.<br />

umuSevroba<br />

SeiZleba 20%-mde<br />

gaizardos evrozonis<br />

yofili wevri qveynebis<br />

umetesobaSi, xolo zogierT<br />

maTganSi (saberZneTi, portugalia,<br />

espaneTi) _ 50%-mde.<br />

SedarebiT sust qveynebSi<br />

SemoiReben SezRudvas kapitalis<br />

moZraobaze fulis<br />

gaqcevis SesaCereblad (SedarebiT<br />

Zlier qveynebSic<br />

SesaZloa igive moxdes imisTvis,<br />

rom mkveTri revalvacia<br />

aicilon Tavidan). evropis<br />

centraluri banki, Tuki<br />

momavalSic iarsebebs, iZulebuli<br />

iqneba ufro da ufro<br />

aqtiurad beWdos fuli, rom<br />

saxlemwifo xarjebi daafinansos<br />

da daicvas sakvanZo<br />

saxelmwifo seqtorebi (armia,<br />

policia, saxelmwifo mmar-<br />

Tveloba) kolafsisagan. dro-<br />

Ta ganmavlobaSi situacia<br />

gamosworebas daiwyebs, magram<br />

evropis qveynebs wlebi das-<br />

WirdebaT, rom cxovrebis winakrizisul<br />

dones daubrundnen.<br />

saxelmwifoebi iZu-

lebulni iqnebian ekonomika-<br />

Si ufro mniSvnelovani<br />

roli iTamaSon _ bevri msxvili<br />

kompania da banki<br />

daeqvemdebareba nacionalizacias.<br />

evropis mniSvnelovani<br />

nawili iZulebiT daubrundeba<br />

erovnul valutebs,<br />

romelic mimoqcevaSi 1999<br />

wels iyo. savaluto kursebis<br />

konkretuli dinamika<br />

winaswar Zneli saTqmelia,<br />

radgan masze gavlenas saxelmwifo<br />

SezRudvebi iqoniebs.<br />

Tuki warmovidgenT, rom<br />

valutebi Tavisufal mimoqcevaSi<br />

iqnebian, maSin evrozonis<br />

sxvadasxva qveynis<br />

valutebi diametralurad<br />

urTierTsawinaaRmdego mimarTulebebiT<br />

imoZraveben. magaliTad,<br />

axali berZnuli<br />

valuta savaraudod dakargavs<br />

Tavisi pirvandeli Rirebulebis<br />

60-70%-s. portugalia-<br />

Si mosalodnelia 40-50%-iani<br />

devalvacia, espaneTi _ 30-40%,<br />

irlandia da italia _ daaxloebiT<br />

20-30%. amasTan, germaniis,<br />

niderlandebis, fine-<br />

Tisa da avstriis valutebi<br />

gaizrdeba. germaniis SemTxvevaSi<br />

revalvaciam SeiZleba<br />

Seadginos 10-20%, rac eqsportze<br />

orientirebuli qveynis-<br />

Tvis dartyma aRmoCndeba.<br />

ase gamoiyureba Economist<br />

Intelligence Unit (EIU)-is mier<br />

warmodgenili evrozonis daSlis<br />

scenari. ramdenad yuradsaRebia<br />

igi unda miviRoT Tu<br />

ara seriozulad? eqspertebis<br />

mosazrebiT, evrokavSirSi<br />

politikuri gaugebrobebi movlenebis<br />

aseT ganviTarebas<br />

savsebiT realurs xdis. sabiujeto<br />

ekonomias, romelsac adgili<br />

aqvs TiTqmis yvela qveyanaSi,<br />

SeuZlia mxolod Sidaevropuli<br />

daZabuloba gaamwvavos.<br />

is ufro evros gamyarebas<br />

iwvevs, romelic amis gare-<br />

Sec Zalian Zlieria evrokav-<br />

Siris problemuri qveynebi-<br />

msoflio ekonomika<br />

sTvis. `sameulis~<br />

mier SeTavazebulireformebi(evrokomisia,<br />

saerTa-<br />

Soriso savaluto<br />

fondi da<br />

evropis centraluri<br />

banki)<br />

evrokavSiris<br />

bevr qveyanaSi<br />

cxovrebis donis<br />

seriozul<br />

vardnas gamoiwvevs.<br />

es ki centridanulZalebs<br />

aamoqmedebs,<br />

romelic isedac<br />

Zlierdeba briuseliTa<br />

da berliniTgamowveuli<br />

dagrovili gaRizianebis gamo.<br />

mTavari ki is aris, rom evropeli politikosebi arafers<br />

akeTeben da arc amboben axali samuSao adgilebis Seqmnisa<br />

da warmoebis ganviTarebis aucileblobis Sesaxeb.<br />

wmindad finansuri RonisZiebebiT aseTi krizisi dauZlevelia.<br />

jerjerobiT yvelaferi keTdeba im mimarTulebiT,<br />

rom evropelebis cxovrebis done Seesabamebodes warmoebis<br />

dones, magram, eqspertebis azriT, es aris gza gaxangrZlivebul<br />

vardnisa da stagnaciisken. yovelive es ki evrokav-<br />

Sirisa da evrozonis perspeqtivebs arc ise sasixarulos<br />

xdis.<br />

saqarTvelos savaWro<br />

partniori qveynebis ricxvma<br />

istoriul maqsimums miaRwia<br />

„saqstatis~ cnobiT, 2011 wlis monacemebiT, saqarTvelos sagareo<br />

savaWro brunvam (araorganizebuli vaWrobis gareSe) 9247 mln aSS<br />

dolari Seadgina, rac wina wlis maCvenebelTan SedarebiT, 36%-iT<br />

gaizarda. aqedan eqsporti 2 189 mln aSS dolari iyo, 39%-iT meti 2010<br />

welTan SedarebiT, xolo importi 7058 mln aSS dolari, 34%-iT meti<br />

wina welTan SedarebiT.<br />

savaWro deficitis absoluturi maCveneblis zrdis miuxedavad,<br />

misi wili mTlian sagareo savaWro brunvaSi 2007 wlis Semdeg tendenciurad<br />

klebadia. am maCvenebelma yvelaze dabal niSnuls 2011<br />

wels miaRwia da 52.7 %-i Seadgina.<br />

saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis geografiuli areali yovelwliurad<br />

farTovdeba. 2011 wlisTvis savaWro partniori qveynebis ricxvma<br />

istoriul maqsimums miaRwia da 147 qveyana Seadgina, rac 6.5%-iT<br />

metia wina wlis monacemebTan SedarebiT.<br />

61

2012 – ekonomikuri<br />

apokalifsi evropaSi<br />

m<br />

soflio ekonomistenomikebi, magram azia namdbis<br />

prognozebiT, 2012 vilad ar iqneba mowodebis<br />

wels globaluri ekonomika simaRleze. aSS gaagrZelebs<br />

msoflio finansur krizis- misi ekonomikis mokrZale-<br />

Tan mebrZolis rolSi dar- bul zrdas, brazilia ki<br />

Ceba, dinamiurobas dakargavs, wlis orTqmavlis funqcias<br />

`<br />

magram swori mimarTulebiT Seasrulebs da laTinuri<br />

svlas ganagrZobs. analiti- amerikis, meqsikisa da argen-<br />

msoflio ekonomikis gaZlierebaSi mimdinare wels sakuTar<br />

wvlils Seitanen aziuri qveynebis ekonomikebi, magram azia namdvilad<br />

ar iqneba mowodebis simaRleze. aSS gaagrZelebs misi<br />

ekonomikis mokrZalebul zrdas, brazilia ki wlis orTqmavlis<br />

funqcias Seasrulebs da laTinuri amerikis, meqsikisa da argentinis<br />

uRels SeuerTdeba<br />

`<br />

kosebi acxadeben, rom krizisisgan<br />

dauZlurebuli evropa<br />

globaluri ekonomikis<br />

svlisTvis seriozuli muxruWi<br />

iqneba. msoflio ekonomikis<br />

gaZlierebaSi mimdinare<br />

wels sakuTar wvlils Seitanen<br />

aziuri qveynebis eko-<br />

62 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

tinis uRels SeuerTdeba.<br />

Tumca, rogor moaxerxebs<br />

uRaribesi mosaxleobis mqone<br />

brazilia msoflio ekonomikis<br />

zrdaSi lomis wvlilis<br />

Setanas mimdinare mimdinare<br />

weli gvaCvenebs, radgan<br />

am ekonomikas naklebad<br />

gaaCnia Sida moxmarebis zrdis<br />

perspeqtiva. ufro metic,<br />

braziliaSi jer kidev<br />

mkveTrad dgas Savkaniani<br />

mosaxleobis problema, isini<br />

dRemde SezRudulni arian<br />

Semosavlis, ganaTlebis<br />

da jandacvis xelmisawvdomobis<br />

kuTxiT. CineTi ki, dRemde<br />

braziliis uZlieres metoqed<br />

rCeba. CineTi ganagr-<br />

Zobs saSualo fenis Seqmnas<br />

mis qveyanaSi, izrdeba dasaqmebulTa<br />

xelfasebi, rac Sida<br />

moxmarebis dones mniSvnelovnad<br />

zrdis.<br />

cxadia, rom analitikosebs,<br />

nebiT Tu uneblied, surT<br />

CineTis ekonomikis daCrdilva<br />

sxva ganviTarebadi ekonomikebis<br />

zrdis fonze, magram<br />

faqtebisa da cifrebis mixedviT,<br />

CineTi msoflios meore<br />

umsxvilesi ekonomikaa, 2012<br />

wels ki is seriozul Tavsatexs<br />

gauCens msoflios,<br />

romelic evrozonis ekonomikur<br />

problemebzea gadarTuli.<br />

2007 wlidan CineTis<br />

ekonomikis zrda aSS-is zrdas<br />

uswrebs, mniSvnelovania<br />

misi TanamSromloba da eqsportis<br />

moculoba ganviTarebad<br />

ekonomikebSi, sadac Cine-<br />

Ti pirvelobas ara-<br />

vis uTmobs. didma<br />

CineTma yvela foni<br />

moimzada imisaTvis,<br />

rom 2012 wels msoflio<br />

ekonomikaSi<br />

mTavari roli Seasrulos.<br />

globaluri<br />

ekonomikis modelis<br />

cvlileba CineTis mTavari<br />

rolis gareSe ki, arc erT<br />

ekonomists ar warmoudgenia.<br />

msoflio ekonomikis zrda CineTis<br />

ekonomikis ganviTarebis<br />

interesebSi Sedis da mas<br />

yvelaze metad aSinebs recesiis<br />

aCrdili. Tumca, mimdinare

wels, saerTaSoriso savaluto<br />

fondma CineTis ekonomikas<br />

prognozi Seumcira da 9%is<br />

nacvlad 8.2%-iani zrda<br />

uwinaswarmetyvela, Tumca iqve<br />

dasZens, rom qveynis ekonomika<br />

2013 wels 8.8%-<br />

iT gaizrdeba.<br />

roiteris gamokiTxva,<br />

romelic<br />

exeba yvela 20 ganviTarebul<br />

da axali<br />

bazrebis mqone<br />

ekonomikas, maT<br />

Soris, azias, cxadyofs globaluri<br />

ekonomikis Senelebas<br />

3.3%-ze 2012 wlisaTvis<br />

da CamorCeba 2011 wlis 3.7%ian<br />

zrdas.<br />

roiteris prognozi msoflio<br />

bankis prognozTan SedarebiT<br />

optimisturia, radgan<br />

am ukanasknelis Tanaxmad,<br />

2012 wels msoflio ekonomika<br />

mxolod 2.5%-iT gaizrdeba.<br />

miuxedavad evro zonis<br />

uzarmazari saxelmwifo<br />

valebisa, rac seriozul<br />

risks qmnis msoflio ekonomikurijanmrTelobisaTvis,<br />

imedismomcemi niSnebi<br />

Cndeba aSS-is ekonomikaSi.<br />

roiteris gamokiTxvis<br />

Tanaxmad, msoflio ekonomikis<br />

zrdis cxrilSi Cine-<br />

Ti kvlav liderobs da msoflio<br />

ekonomikas 8.4%-ian zrdas<br />

hpirdeba. yuradRebis<br />

miRma ar unda darCes indoeTis<br />

ekonomika, romelis<br />

prognozebis Tanaxmad, 2012<br />

wels msoflios 7.0%-ian<br />

zrdas moutans, miuxedavad im<br />

faqtisa, rom qveynis ekonomikis<br />

zrda bolo ori wlis<br />

ganmavlobaSi monetaruli<br />

politikis gamkacrebisa da<br />

politikurad Cixuri mdgomareobis<br />

fonze yvelaze<br />

dabal maCveneblebs aqveynebs.<br />

braziliis maRali Sida mo-<br />

Txovna da kreditebis zrda<br />

qveynis ekonomikas 3.3%-iT gazrdis<br />

mimdinare wels da<br />

4.5%-iT 2013 wels.<br />

msoflio ekonomika<br />

rTuli droeba<br />

mimdire wels yvelaze<br />

metad mdidar, ganviTarebul<br />

ekonomikebs gauWirdebaT,<br />

msoflios umsxvilesi aSSis<br />

ekonomika 2012 wels mx-<br />

deflaciis WaobSi Caflul<br />

iaponia ki, romelic<br />

miwisZvriTa da cunamis Sedegad<br />

gamowveuli ekonomikuri<br />

Sokis daZlevas cdilobs,<br />

iolad Camoitovebs<br />

`cxadia, rom analitikosebs, nebiT Tu uneblied, surT CineTis<br />

ekonomikis daCrdilva sxva ganviTarebadi ekonomikebis zrdis fonze,<br />

magram faqtebisa da cifrebis mixedviT, CineTi msoflios meore umsxvilesi<br />

ekonomikaa, 2012 wels ki is seriozul Tavsatexs gauCens msoflios,<br />

romelic evro zonis ekonomikur problemebzea gadarTuli<br />

olod 2.2%-iT gaizrdeba.<br />

2012 wels evropis mTavari<br />

amocanaa, rogorme SeinarCunos<br />

eleganturoba, saberZneTidan<br />

agorebuli saxelmwifo<br />

valebis defolti<br />

mTlianad evropis finansur<br />

sistemas miayenebs zarals.<br />

aTenelebi sargebels naxuloben<br />

fasiani qaRaldebis<br />

svopis garigebidan mis ker-<br />

Zo kreditorebTan erTad.<br />

evro zonis<br />

politikosebis<br />

moCvenebiTi uunaroba,<br />

rom maT<br />

ar SeuZliaT<br />

saxelmwifo davalianebiskrizisTangamklaveba,<br />

sagangaSo<br />

risks uqmnis ekonomikurzrdas,<br />

rac namdvilad<br />

ar exeba<br />

regionis periferiulekonomikebs.<br />

erTaderTi<br />

mTavari evropuli<br />

ekonomika,<br />

romelic 2012<br />

wlis apokalifsurstagnacias<br />

Tavs daa-<br />

Rwevs, germania<br />

iqneba, Tumca misi<br />

ekonomika mimdinare<br />

wels<br />

mxolod 0.5%iT<br />

gaizrdeba.<br />

evropas da mis ekonomikas<br />

1.8%-iT gazrdis.<br />

saerTaSoriso savaluto<br />

fondi SiSobs, rom evropis<br />

saxelmwifo davalianebis<br />

krizisi mTlianad msoflio<br />

ekonomikas recesiis qarcecxlSi<br />

dabrunebas upirebs.<br />

cxadia, rom 2012 wels<br />

msoflio ekonomikuri miwisZvris<br />

saSiSroebis epicentri<br />

evropa iqneba, rac glo-<br />

`<br />

63

64 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

balur ekonomikas metismetad<br />

daazaralebs. analitikosebi<br />

SiSoben, rom evropis kriziss<br />

SeuZlia imdenad moikribos<br />

Zalebi, rom msoflio<br />

meore recesiis klanWebSi moaqcios,<br />

amitom gadamwyveti da<br />

saswrafo nabijebis gadadgma<br />

2012 wels aucilebeli da<br />

saWiro iqneba.<br />

ukanasknel msoflio ekonomikis<br />

mimoxilvis moxsenebaSi<br />

Cawerilia, rom 2012<br />

wlis yvelaze didi gamowveva<br />

evro zonis krizisis da-<br />

Zleva, ndobis aRdgena, berketebis<br />

amuSaveba, masTan er-<br />

Tad likvidurobisa da fulad-dakreditebis<br />

donis zrda.<br />

axla, evropisTvis aucilebelia<br />

gadarCenis fondebi gaa-<br />

Zlieros, rom am gziT aRadginos<br />

bazris ndoba da saxelmwifo<br />

qaRaldebis fasi unda<br />

daswios, raTa italiisa da<br />

espaneTis msgavsma qveynebma<br />

xelmisawvdomi ganakveTiT ai-<br />

Ron sesxebi.<br />

simwvaves ar kargavs saberZneTis<br />

krizisi, misi de-<br />

folti qveyanas, da ara marto<br />

mas, kvlav miaTrevs krizisis<br />

ufskrulisaken, analitikosebi<br />

1930-iani wlebis depresiis<br />

msgavs saSiSroebaze saubroben,<br />

amitom aucileblad miiCneven<br />

evros garadCenis fondis<br />

500 miliardamde gazrdas<br />

da am fondis moqnilobis<br />

donis amaRleba.<br />

2012 wlis davosis forumzec<br />

dafiqsirda azri, rom mimdinare<br />

weli, marTalia, aziisTvis<br />

mZime iqneba, magram msoflio<br />

ekonomikisTvis azia mainc<br />

ekonomikur katalizatorad mogvevlineba,<br />

CineTis winamZRolobiT<br />

iondoeTi da indonezia<br />

msoflio ekonomikis zrdaSi<br />

mniSvnelovan rols iTamaSeben.<br />

evropis finansurma krizisma<br />

azias seriozuli ziani<br />

moutana: evropulma bankebma da<br />

safinanso institutebma aziis<br />

kreditebi ukan gamoitanes<br />

da vaWrobis moculobis kleba,<br />

rac udidesi dartymaa Cine-<br />

TisaTvis, romlisTvisac evropa<br />

eqsportis umsxvilesi bazaria.<br />

krizisSi Caflul evropas irani<br />

navTobis deficitiT emuqreba<br />

eqspertebi msoflio bazarze navTobis gaZvirebas prognozireben.<br />

Teirani mzadaa, mkacri pasuxi gasces evrokavSiris gadawyvetilebas,<br />

1 ivlisidan iranuli navTobis importis akrZalvis Sesaxeb. kviris<br />

bolomde iranis parlamenti apirebs daamtkicos kanonproeqti evrokav-<br />

Siris qveynebSi navTobis miwodebis sruli akrZalvis Sesaxeb manamde,<br />

vidre evropeli momxmareblebi mis SeZenas Sewyveten.<br />

eqspertebi acxadeben, rom Tuki iranuli mejlisis muqara Sesruldeba,<br />

es seriozul dartymas miayenebs evropuli qveynebis<br />

ekonomikas, romlebic iZulebulni gaxdebian saswrafod daiwyon<br />

iranuli navTobis Sesyidvebi alternatiuli wyaroebidan ufro<br />

maRal fasad.<br />

1 ivlisidan iranuli navTobis importze embargos etapobrivi<br />

amoqmedebis gadawyvetileba briuselSi, evrokavSiris sagareo saqmeTa<br />

ministrebis Sexvedraze iqna miRebuli. amas ar SeuSinebia Teirani<br />

da ufro metic, iranuli mejlisis energetikuli komitetis gancxadebiT,<br />

ukve sruldeba muSaoba kanonproeqtze evropaSi navTobis<br />

eqsportis Sewyvetis Sesaxeb. analitikosebis SefasebiT, konfrontacia<br />

izrdeba da aSkaraa, rom arc erTi da arc meore mxare ar<br />

apirebs poziciebis daTmobas. Sedegad, evropis qveynebs<br />

Soris yvelaze metad saberZneTi, espaneTi da italia<br />

dazaraldebian.

msoflio ekonomika<br />

statistika cifrebSi<br />

a<br />

SS-is Sromis saministros<br />

monacemebiT, 2011<br />

wlis dekemberSi wina Tves-<br />

Tan SedarebiT samomxmareblo<br />

fasebi ar Secvlila. analitikosebi<br />

prognozirebdnen,<br />

rom es maCvenebeli 0,1%-iT<br />

gaizrdeboda. gasuli wlis<br />

analogiur periodTan SedarebiT<br />

samomxmareblo fasebi<br />

3,0%-iT gaizarda. kvebis produqtebisa<br />

da energomatareblebis<br />

fasebis gamoklebiT,<br />

samomxmareblo fasebi 2011<br />

wlis dekemberSi Tviur gamoxatulebaSi<br />

0,1%-iT gaizarda,<br />

xolo wliuri gaangariSebiT<br />

_ 2,2%-iT. 2011 wlis noemberSi<br />

wina TvesTan SedarebiT<br />

es maCvenebeli 0,2%-iT<br />

gaizarda.<br />

aSS-is Sromis saministros<br />

monacemebiT, qveyanaSi<br />

samrewvelo fasebi 2011 wlis<br />

dekemberSi wina TvesTan SedarebiT<br />

Semcirda 0,1%-iT.<br />

2011 wlis noemberSi aSS-Si<br />

mwarmoeblebis indeqsi Tviur<br />

gamoxatulebaSi gaizarda<br />

0,3%-iT, wliur gamoxatulebaSi<br />

ki _ 4,8%-iT. kvebis<br />

produqtebisa da energomatareblebis<br />

fasebis gamoklebiT,<br />

qveyanaSi mwarmoebel-<br />

Ta indeqsma wliur gaangariSebaSi<br />

moimata 3,0%-iT,<br />

es maCvenebeli igive procentuli<br />

punqtiT gaizarda<br />

Tviur gamoxatulebaSic.<br />

aSS-is federaluri sarezervo<br />

sistemis monacemebiT,<br />

qveyanaSi samrewvelo<br />

warmoebis moculobam 2011<br />

wlis dekemberSi wina TvesTan<br />

SedarebiT moimata 0,4%iT.<br />

analitikosebi am<br />

maCveneblis zrdas 0,5%-is<br />

doneze elodnen. wliur<br />

gamoxatulebaSi ki samrewvelo<br />

warmoebis moculoba<br />

gaizarda 2,9%-iT. aSS-Si sam-<br />

rewvelo simZlavreebis gamoyenebis<br />

koeficientma 2011<br />

wlis dekemberSi wina TvesTan<br />

SedarebiT 0,3 procentuli<br />

punqtiT moimata da<br />

Seadgina 78,1%. erTi wliT<br />

adre es maCvenebeli Seadgenda<br />

76,8%-s. 2011 wlis noemberSi<br />

aSS-Si samrewvelo warmoebis<br />

moculoba, gadasinjuli<br />

monacemebiT, Tviur<br />

gamoxatulebaSi Semcirda<br />

0,3%-iT (adre iuwyebodnen,<br />

rom maCvenebeli Semcirda<br />

0,2%-iT).<br />

aSS-is finansTa saministros<br />

monacemebiT, 2011 wlis<br />

noemberSi qveyanaSi kapitalis<br />

wminda modinebam Seadgina<br />

48,6 miliardi dolari.<br />

erTi TviT adre kapitalis<br />

wminda modinebam Seadgina<br />

39,6 miliardi dolari. 2011<br />

wlis noemberSi ucxoelebis<br />

mier amerikuli grZelvadiani<br />

fasiani qaRaldebis Sesyidvebis<br />

moculobam Seadgina<br />

44,4 miliardi dolari<br />

(2011 wlis oqtomberSi dafiqsirda<br />

gayidvebis moculoba<br />

5,2 miliardi dolaris odenobiT).<br />

amerikuli moklevadiani<br />

fasiani qaRaldebisa<br />

da sxva fuladi valdebulebebis<br />

Sesyidvam ucxoelebis<br />

mier Seadgina 38,0 miliardi<br />

dolari (erTi TviT adre<br />

dafiqsirda gayidva 41,0 miliardi<br />

dolaris doneze),<br />

xolo kapitalis gadinebam,<br />

amerikuli da ucxouri bankebis<br />

kuTvnili fulad valdebulebebs<br />

Soris gansxvavebiT<br />

warmoSobilma, 2011 wlis<br />

noembris SedegebiT Seadgina<br />

33,8 miliardi dolari.<br />

aSS-is vaWrobis saministros<br />

monacemebiT, qveyanaSi<br />

axali saxlebis mSeneblobis<br />

moculoba 2011 wlis dekemberSi<br />

wina TvesTan SedarebiT<br />

Semcirda 4,1%-iT da<br />

Seadgina 657 aTasi erTeuli.<br />

eqspertebi varaudobdnen,<br />

rom es maCvenebeli iqneboda<br />

685 aTasi saxli. wli-<br />

65

germaniis ekonomikis saministrom<br />

2012 wlis mSp-is<br />

prognozi isev Semcirebisken<br />

Secvala. gamoqveynebuli<br />

monacemebis Tanaxmad, axali<br />

wlis monacemebis mixedviT,<br />

ekonomikis zrdam unda Seadginos<br />

0,7%. germaniis mTavrobis<br />

axali Sefaseba mcirediT<br />

Camouvardeba adrindels:<br />

ekonomikis saministro 2012<br />

wlis SedegebiT ekonomikis<br />

zrdas 1%-iT varaudobda.<br />

eqspertebis azriT, mimdinare<br />

wels eqsporti ver uzrun-<br />

66 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

ur gamoxatulebaSi es maCvenebeli gazrdilia 24,9%-iT.<br />

gadasinjuli monacemebiT, 2011 wlis noemberSi aSS-Si axali<br />

mSeneblobebis moculoba gaizarda 9,1%-iT (adre 9,3%ian<br />

zrdas prognozirebdnen) da Seadgina 685 aTasi erTeuli.<br />

axali saxlebis mSeneblobisTvis gacemuli nebarTvebis<br />

raodenoba 2011 wlis dekemberSi wina Tvis gadasinjul monacemebTan<br />

SedarebiT Semcirda 0,1%-iT 681 aTas erTeulamde.<br />

es maCvenebeli erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi 7,8%-iT gaizarda.<br />

aSS-is Sromis saministros monacemebiT, qveyanaSi<br />

umuSevrobis SemweobisTvis pirveladi saxelmwifo mimarTvebis<br />

raodenoba kviris ganmavlobaSi, romelic dasrulda<br />

2012 wlis 14 ianvars, Semcirda 352 aTas adamianamde.<br />

analitikosebi elodnen, rom es maCvenebeli 383 aTas moTxovnas<br />

Seadgenda. dazustebuli monacemebiT, pirveladi mimarTvebis<br />

raodenobam kviris ganmavlobaSi, romelic dasrulda<br />

7 ianvars, Seadgina 402 aTasi da ara 399 aTasi,<br />

rogorc adre varaudobdnen.<br />

germaniis 2012 wlis mSp-is<br />

prognozi Semcirebisken Seicvala<br />

velyofs qveynis mSp-is zrdas.<br />

germaniis ekonomikuri<br />

zrdis Sesustebis mizezi<br />

misi savaWro partniorebi<br />

arian. specialistebi miiCneven,<br />

rom saerTaSoriso vaWrobis<br />

wili mSp-is cvlileba-<br />

Si uaryofiTi iqneba (-0,3%),<br />

maSin, rodesac erTi wlis<br />

win am dargs SeeZlo maCveneblis<br />

0,8%-iT zrda. garda<br />

amisa, germaniis ekonomikis<br />

saministro elis, rom importisa<br />

da eqsportis tempis<br />

zrda 2012 wlis SedegebiT<br />

mkveTrad Semcirdeba<br />

2011<br />

welTan SedarebiT:<br />

3% da 2%,<br />

7,2% da 8,2%-is<br />

sapirispirod<br />

Sesabamisad.<br />

amavdroulad,<br />

saministros<br />

specialistebi<br />

prognozireben,<br />

rom 2012 wels<br />

germaniis mSpis<br />

zrda isev<br />

daCqardeba da<br />

Seadgens 1,6%-s.<br />

germaniis<br />

federaluri<br />

statistikuri samsaxuris<br />

informaciiT, gasuli wlis<br />

dekemberSi wina TvesTan SedarebiT<br />

germaniis samrewvelo<br />

fasebi 0,4%-iT Semcirda.<br />

analitikosebi maCveneblis<br />

zrdas 0,1%-is fargleb-<br />

Si elodnen. gasuli wlis<br />

dekemberSi wina wlis igive<br />

periodTan SedarebiT es<br />

maCvenebeli momatebulia 4%iT.<br />

2011 wlis noemberSi samrewvelo<br />

fasebi Tviur gamoxatulebaSi<br />

gaizarda 0,1%iT,<br />

xolo wliuriT _ 5,2%iT.<br />

germaniis ekonomikuri<br />

kvlevis centris monacemebiT<br />

(ZEW), qveyanaSi saqmiani<br />

molodinis indeqsma mimdinare<br />

wlis ianvarSi Seadgina<br />

minus 21,6 punqti wina<br />

Tvis minus 53,8 punqtTan<br />

SedarebiT. analitikosebi<br />

varaudobdnen, rom es indikatori<br />

minus 49,2 punqti iqneboda.<br />

germaniis mimdinare<br />

ekonomikuri pirobebis indeqsi<br />

2012 wlis ianvarSi 28,4<br />

punqtamde gaizarda erTi<br />

Tvis winandeli 26,8 punqtidan,<br />

roca prognozi 24,0<br />

punqti iyo.

did britaneTSi inflaciis Seneleba<br />

yvelaze mniSvnelovani movlena gaxda<br />

didi britaneTis statistikuri<br />

samsaxuris monacemebiT,<br />

gasuli wlis dekember-<br />

Si 2010 wlis dekemberTan SedarebiT<br />

qveynis samomxmareblo<br />

fasebi 4,2%-iT gaizarda.<br />

aRsaniSnavia, rom 2011 wlis<br />

dekemberSi wina TvesTan SedarebiT<br />

inflaciis Seneleba<br />

yvelaze mniSvnelovani<br />

movlena gaxda 2,5 wlis ganmavlobaSi,<br />

anu 2009 wlis apri-<br />

Eurostat-is saboloo monacemebiT, evrozonis<br />

samomxmareblo fasebi, gasuli wlis<br />

dekemberSi wliur gamoxatulebaSi gaizarda<br />

2,7%-iT, analitikosebi ki inflacias 2,8%-is<br />

doneze elodnen. wina TvesTan SedarebiT<br />

2011 wlis dekemberSi samomxmareblo fasebi<br />

gaizarda 0,3%-iT. wliur gamoxatulebaSi 2011<br />

wlis noemberSi evrozonis samomxmareblo<br />

msoflio ekonomika<br />

lis Semdeg. Tviur<br />

gamoxatulebaSi gasuli<br />

wlis dekember-<br />

Si samomxmareblo fasebi<br />

gaizarda 0,4%iT.<br />

noemberSi ki wina<br />

TvesTan SedarebiT am<br />

maCvenebelma moimata<br />

0,2%-iT. samomxmareblo<br />

fasebis sabaziso<br />

indeqsi (energomatareblebis,<br />

kvebis produqtebis,alkoholisa<br />

da Tambaqos fasebis<br />

gamoklebiT)<br />

wliuri gaangariSebiT<br />

dekemberSi gaizarda<br />

3%-iT, xolo<br />

Tviuri gaTvlebiT<br />

0,5%-iT.<br />

umuSevrobis maCvenebeli<br />

gasuli<br />

wlis dekemberSi wina<br />

Tvis gadasinjul monacemebTan<br />

SedarebiT<br />

ar Secvlila da Seadgina<br />

5,0%. saxelmwifosTvis<br />

umuSevrobis Semweobis misaRebad<br />

mimarTvebis raodenoba<br />

2011 wlis dekemberSi wina<br />

TvesTan SedarebiT gaizarda<br />

1,2 aTasiT da miaRwia 1<br />

milion 597 aTasamde _ SedarebiT<br />

maRali maCvenebeli<br />

TiTqmis 2 wlis manZilze.<br />

analitikosebi elodnen, rom<br />

zrda 10 aTasi iqneboda. ga-<br />

dasinjuli monacemebis<br />

Tanaxmad, 2011 wlis noember-<br />

Si es maCvenebeli wina<br />

TvesTan SedarebiT gaizarda<br />

200 da ara 3 aTasiT,<br />

rogorc adre varaudobdnen.<br />

didi britaneTis umuSevroba,<br />

gamoTvlili Sromis saer-<br />

TaSoriso organizaciis mier<br />

(ILO), sami Tvis manZilze (2011<br />

wlis seqtemberidan noembramde)<br />

gaizarda 0,3 procentuli<br />

punqtiT imave wlis<br />

ivnis-agvistosTan SedarebiT<br />

da Seadgina 8,4%. es aris<br />

yvelaze maRali maCvenebeli<br />

1995 wlis noembris Semdeg.<br />

did britaneTSi sacalo<br />

gayidvebis moculoba 2011<br />

wlis dekemberSi wina TvesTan<br />

SedarebiT gaizarda 0,6%-iT.<br />

analitikosebi elodnen, rom<br />

es maCvenebeli Tviur gamoxatulebaSi<br />

gaizrdeboda 0,7%-iT.<br />

2011 wlis dekemberSi wina<br />

wlis analogiur periodTan<br />

SedarebiT es maCvenebeli<br />

gaizarda 2,6%-iT. 2011 wlis<br />

noemberSi ki, sacalo gayidvebis<br />

moculoba, dazustebuli<br />

monacemebiT, Tviur gamoxatulebaSi<br />

Semcirda 0,5%-iT<br />

(adre 0,4%-iani Semcirebas<br />

varaudobdnen), xolo wliur<br />

gamoxatulebaSi _ 0,4%-iT<br />

(adre 0,7%-ian zrdas varaudobdnen).<br />

dekemberSi yvelaze dabali inflacia<br />

SvedeTSi dafiqsirda<br />

fasebis indeqsi 3,0%-iT gaizarda. gasuli<br />

wlis dekemberSi samomxmareblo fasebi<br />

evrokavSiris 27 qveyanaSi wliuri gamoxatulebiT<br />

gaizarda 3.0%-iT, xolo Tviur gamosaxulebiT<br />

0,3%-iT. 2011 wlis dekemberSi yvelaze<br />

dabali inflacia dafiqsirda SvedeT-<br />

Si (0,4%), maltaSi (1,3%), yvelaze maRali ki _<br />

slovakeTSi (4,6%) da kviprosze (4,2%).<br />

67

aSS-is ekonomikis mTavari draiveri<br />

_ kerZo moxmareba isev moqmedebaSia<br />

aSS-is ekonomika aRdgens<br />

ganagrZobs, igi gamodis im<br />

Seokidan, romelic 2011 wels<br />

miiRo navTobis fasebis<br />

swrafi awevisa da iaponiis<br />

miwisZvrisagan. axal, 2012<br />

wels msoflioSi nomer pirveli<br />

ekonomika bevrad damajereblad<br />

Sevida, vidre 2011 wlis<br />

miwuruls prognozirebdnen.<br />

2011 wlis IV kvartalSi mSpis<br />

3,0%-iani zrda dafiqsirda,<br />

roca wina kvartalSi es<br />

maCvenebeli 1,8%-s Seadgenda.<br />

eqspertebis azriT, aSS-is<br />

ekonomikis aRdgenis tempis<br />

daCqareba ganapiroba, pirvel<br />

rigSi, kerZo moxmarebis zrdis<br />

aRdgenam da sasaqonlo<br />

maragebis brunvis gazrdam.<br />

kerZo moxmareba, rogorc cnobilia,<br />

paralizebuli iyo 2011<br />

wlis dasawyisSi mkveTrad<br />

gazrdili sanavTobe kotirebebisa<br />

da iaponiis miwisZvris<br />

Semdeg avtomobilebis<br />

gayidvebis vardnis fonze.<br />

Tumca wlis meore naxevarSi<br />

68 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

navTobproduqtebze fasebis<br />

SemcirebiT amerikelebis realuri<br />

Semosavlebi gaizarda.<br />

garda amisa, iaponiis miwisZvris<br />

Semdeg dazaralebuli<br />

aSS-is saavtomobilo in-<br />

dustria, romelic qveynis erTerTi<br />

wamyvani dargia, aseve<br />

wlis meore naxevarSi aRdga.<br />

ase rom, aSS-is ekonomikis mTavari<br />

draiveri _ kerZo moxmareba<br />

isev moqmedebaSia da,<br />

bevri eqspertis azriT, unda<br />

SeZlos zrdis stimulireba.<br />

yvelaze mokrZalebuli SefasebebiT,<br />

qveyanaSi zrdam 2012<br />

wlisTvis unda Seadginos<br />

2,5%. eqspertebs optimistur<br />

talRaze ayenebs bolos gamoqveynebuli<br />

aSS-is makroekonomikuri<br />

maCveneblebic. samrewvelo<br />

warmoebam gasuli<br />

wlis dekemberSi isev aCvena<br />

zrda noembris Cavardnis<br />

Semdgom. federaluri sarezervo<br />

sistemis monacemebiT, samrewvelo<br />

warmoebis moculoba<br />

2011 wlis dekemberSi noemberTan<br />

SedarebiT gaizarda<br />

0,4%-iT, noemberSi vardnam 0,3%<br />

Seadgina. monacemebma aCvena,<br />

rom aSS-Si gaizarda moTxovna<br />

sawarmoo teqnikaze, avtomobilebze<br />

da samSeneblo<br />

masalebze. garda amisa, warmoeba<br />

damamuSavebeli dargSi,<br />

romelzedac aSS-is ekonomikis<br />

12% modis, gaizarda 0,9%iT,<br />

noembris 0,4%-iani klebis<br />

Semdeg. saavtomobilo<br />

mrewvelobaSi warmoebis moculoba<br />

0,6%-iT da 0,8%-iT _<br />

sawarmoo teqnikis moculoba.<br />

Tumca, amave dros, TviTmfrinavebisa<br />

da sxva satransporto<br />

saSualebebis mowyobilobebis<br />

warmoeba Semcirda.<br />

dekemberSi 1%-iT gaizar-<br />

aSS-is mSp-is zrdis tempi<br />

da samSeneblo masalebis warmoeba.<br />

es aris aqtiurobis<br />

zrdis yvelaze maRali maCvenebeli<br />

bolo 5 Tvis man-<br />

Zilze. mompovebelma dargma,<br />

maT Soris, navTobmopovebam,<br />

2011 wlis dekemberSi awarmoa<br />

0,3%-iT meti produqcia,<br />

vidre wina TveSi. aq aqtivoba<br />

ramdenadme Semcirda, radgan<br />

noemberSi warmoebis Tviurma<br />

zrdam mompovebel darg

Si Seadgina 0,5%. aSS-Si mkve-<br />

Trad Semcirda eleqtroenergiis<br />

warmoeba, ramac eleqtroenergetikaSi<br />

warmoebis<br />

2,7%-iani Semcireba gamoiwvia.<br />

es yvelaze dabali maCvenebelia<br />

2011 wlis oqtombris Semdeg.<br />

gaZlierebuli samomxmareblo<br />

moTxovna da korporatiuli<br />

investirebis moculobis<br />

zrda materialurteqnikuri<br />

maragebis Sevsebis<br />

aucileblobasTan erTad,<br />

amerikel mrewvelebs aiZulebs,<br />

ara mxolod Seavson<br />

TanamSromelTa Statebi fabrika-qarxnebSi,<br />

aramed gazardon<br />

samuSao kviris xangrZlivobac.<br />

Tumca, miuxedavad amisa,<br />

evropuli qveynebis umetesobaSi<br />

mZvinvare savale krizisi<br />

didi xnis manZilze Caax-<br />

Sobs amerikuli warmoebis<br />

saqonelze moTxovnas `beber<br />

kontinentze~. aSS-is vaWrobis<br />

saministros monacemebiT,<br />

evropaSi eqsportma gasuli<br />

wlis noemberSi ukve miaRwia<br />

minimalur niSnuls bolo<br />

oTxi Tvis manZilze. Tumca,<br />

rogorc 2008 wels, situacias<br />

asworeben ganviTarebadi qveynebis<br />

importiorebi, pirvel<br />

rigSi ki, CineTidan. ganviTarebad<br />

qveynebSi amerikuli<br />

warmoebis saqonelze moTxovna<br />

kvlavindeburad maRalia.<br />

swored amitomac amerikeli<br />

manqanaTmSeneblebi simZlavres<br />

zrdian. maT Soris<br />

Maumee _ avtomobilebis sa-<br />

Rebavebis mwarmoebeli gasu-<br />

dek.<br />

iaponiaSi samomxmareblo ndoba gaizarda<br />

iaponiis mTavrobis ekonomikuri da socialuri<br />

kvleviTi institutis monacemebiT,<br />

qveynis samrewvelo warmoebis moculoba<br />

2011 wlis noemberSi wina TvesTan SedarebiT,<br />

dazustebuli informaciiT, Semcirda<br />

2,7%-iT. iaponiis samomxmareblo ndobis<br />

indeqsi 2011 wlis dekemberSi wina TvesTan<br />

SedarebiT da Seadgina 38,9 punqti. noember-<br />

Si es maCvenebeli Seadgenda 38,1 punqts.<br />

msoflio ekonomika<br />

aSS-Si samrewvlo warmoebis moculoba<br />

dek.<br />

dek.<br />

dek.<br />

dek.<br />

wyaro: federaluri sarezervo sistema<br />

li wlis SedegebiT damatebiT<br />

mogebas elodeba 1,952,05<br />

dolariT aqciaze. xolo<br />

luqs klasis avtomobilebis<br />

mwarmoebeli msoflio lideri<br />

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG<br />

sawarmoo simZlavreebis gasazrdelad<br />

da axali modelis<br />

warmoebis mosamzadeblad<br />

apirebs 900 milioni dolaris<br />

investirebas samxreT karolinas<br />

Statis qarxanaSi.<br />

imaze, rom aSS-is realur<br />

ekonomikaSi aqtivoba izrdeba,<br />

metyvelebs aSS-is Sromis departamentis<br />

monacemebic. 2011<br />

wlis dekemberSi mrewvelebma<br />

23 aTasi axali samuSao adgi-<br />

dek.<br />

dek.<br />

dek.<br />

dek.<br />

dek.<br />

samrewvelo ISM<br />

dek. dek.<br />

li Seqmnes. es yvelaze maRali<br />

maCvenebelia bolo 5 Tvis<br />

ganmavlobaSi. 2010 wlis maisis<br />

Semdeg, gasuli wlis dekemberSi<br />

samuSao kviris xangrZlivobam<br />

pirvelad miaRwia<br />

41,5 saaTs. mrewvelobis damamuSavebel<br />

dargebSi aqtivobis<br />

zrdas oficialuri vaSingtonic<br />

adasturebs. Beige Book-is<br />

bolo gamoSvebaSi, romelic<br />

2012 wlis 11 ianvars gamoqveynda,<br />

naTqvamia, rom damamuSavebel<br />

mrewvelobaSi aqtiuroba<br />

izrdeba, Tumca calkeul seqtorebSi,<br />

magaliTad, rogoricaa<br />

teqnologiuri zrdis tempi _<br />

neldeba.<br />

dek.<br />

dek.<br />

ISM punqtebi<br />

69

evropaSi inflacia mcirdeba<br />

`beber kontinentze~ fasebis<br />

zrda neldeba _ aseTia<br />

evrozonisa da didi britaneTis<br />

statistikis gasuli<br />

wlis dekembris maCveneblebi.<br />

luqsembrugSi statistikuri<br />

biuros mier gavrcelebuli<br />

monacemebiT, 2011 wlis dekemberSi<br />

evrozonis wliuri<br />

inflacia noemberTan SedarebiT<br />

Semcirda 3,0%-dan 2,7%mde.<br />

Tumca, Tveebis mixedviT<br />

fasebis zrdis tempi daCqarebulia<br />

0,1% noemberSi da 0,3%<br />

dekemberSi. garda amisa, samomxmareblo<br />

fasebis sakvanZo<br />

indeqsi (Core CPI), romelic<br />

gamoTvleba energomatareblebisa<br />

da kvebis produqtebis<br />

fasebis gareSe, jer ar<br />

aCvenebs zrdis Senelebis niSnebs.<br />

maCvenebeli meoTxe Tvea<br />

zedized wliur gamoxatulebaSi<br />

izrdeba 1,6%-iT.<br />

70 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

evrokavSiris 21<br />

qveyanaSi samomxmareblo<br />

fasebis zrda<br />

Senelda, maSin, roca<br />

2 qveyanaSi daCqarda.<br />

slovakeTSi, poloneTsa<br />

da kviprosze is<br />

maqsimalur maCvenebelzea,<br />

xolo maltasa<br />

da SvedeTSi<br />

fasebis zrda minimaluria.<br />

mTlianoba-<br />

Si evrozonaSi eleqtroenergiaze<br />

fasebma<br />

9,7%-iT moimata wliur<br />

gamoxatulebaSi,<br />

uZrav qonebaze 4,9%iT,<br />

xolo Tambaqos<br />

nawarmisa da alkoholis<br />

fasma weliwad-<br />

Si 3,8%-iT moimates.<br />

evropis centralurma<br />

bankma ukve orjer<br />

daswia sabaziso<br />

saprocento ganakveTi<br />

0,25%-iT da daiyvana<br />

1,0%-mde. centralur<br />

banks ukve SeuZlia<br />

cota xani ar gadaxedos<br />

Tavis fuladsakredito<br />

politikas da<br />

daelodos, Tu ra Sedegebs<br />

moitans ukve gadagmuli<br />

nabijebi. inflaciam Senele-<br />

mario dragi:<br />

inflaciuri<br />

riskebi ZiriTadad<br />

dabalansebulia<br />

ba daiwyo da gamoCnda imis<br />

pirveli niSnebi, rom postkrizisuli<br />

inflacia ukve<br />

warsuls Cabarda. gaxdeba Tu<br />

ara inflaciuri zewolis Sesusteba<br />

tendencia Tu es mxolod<br />

droebiTi Semcirebaa,<br />

amas Semdgomi statistika<br />

gvaCvenebs. evropis monetaruli<br />

xelisufleba cxadad avlens,<br />

rom dRes maTi prioritetuli<br />

amocana ekonomikis<br />

mxardaWeraa. 12 ianvars gamarTuli<br />

evropis centraluri<br />

bankis monetaruli politikis<br />

komitetis sxdomis<br />

Semdeg, bankis prezidenti, mario<br />

dragi, Tavis komentareb-<br />

Si acxadebda, rom inflaciuri<br />

riskebi ZiriTadad dabalansebulia.<br />

imdenad, ramdenadac<br />

ekonomikuri zrdis<br />

perspeqtivebi sakmaod gaurkvevelia,<br />

evropis centraluri<br />

bankis meTauri moelis,<br />

rom inflacia ramdenime Tve<br />

samizne 2%-ian bariers gadaaWarbebs.<br />

maSin, rodesac evropuli<br />

ekonomika recesiis zRvarzea,<br />

xolo saxelmwifo xarjebi<br />

radikalurad mcirdeba, evropeli<br />

mrewvelebi cdiloben<br />

SeinarCunon konkurentunar

ianoba da iZulebulni arian<br />

TavianT produqciaze fasebi<br />

daswion. jer kidev gasuli<br />

wlis seqtemberSi mwarmoebelTa<br />

fasebma Seneleba<br />

daiwyes 5,8% oqtomberSi, romelic<br />

jer 5,5%-ze Camovida,<br />

xolo noemberSi 5,3%-ze.<br />

garda amisa, evropel mwarmoeblebze<br />

did zewolas<br />

axdens navToproduqtebze ma-<br />

Rali fasebi. mxolod gasuli<br />

sami Tvis ganmavlobaSi<br />

sanavTobe kotirebeba 15%-iT<br />

moimates. am yvelaferTan er-<br />

Tad dolaris mimarT dasustebuli<br />

evro evropaSi importirebuli<br />

saqonlis Rirebulebas<br />

ufro maRals xdis,<br />

ramac unda ganapirobos evropul<br />

saqonelze maRali moTxovna.<br />

londonidan miRebuli<br />

ukansakneli statistika mowmobs,<br />

rom inflaciuri zewola<br />

did britaneTSic<br />

mcirdeba. londonis erovnulis<br />

statistikuri biuros<br />

monacemebiT, samomxmareblo<br />

fasebi gasuli wlis dekemberSi<br />

noemberTan SedarebiT<br />

Semcirebulia, sxvaTa<br />

Soris, sakmaod sagrZnobad<br />

wliuri 4,8%-dan 4,2%-mde.<br />

amasTan, Tviur gamoxatulebaSi<br />

CPI indeqsi dekemberSi<br />

aiwia 0,4%-iT noembris 0,2%dan.<br />

garda amisa, samomxmareblo<br />

fasebis indeqsi, gawmendilienergomatareblebis,<br />

kvebis produqtebis, alkoholosa<br />

da Tambaqos fasebisgan<br />

(Core CPI), gasuli wlis<br />

dekemberSi wliur gamoxatulebaSi<br />

aiwia 3,0%-iT noembris<br />

3,2%-iani zrdis Semdeg.<br />

londonis statistikuri<br />

biuro sacalo fasebis<br />

zrdis Senelebazec<br />

akeTebs gancxadebas. wliur<br />

gamoxatulebaSi 5,2%-dan<br />

noemberSi 4,8%-mde. Tviur<br />

gamoxatulebaSi inflacia<br />

daCqarda 0,2%-dan noemberSi<br />

0,4%-mde. ase rom, nislian al-<br />

99 dek.<br />

sfi<br />

wminda sfi<br />

00 dek.<br />

01 dek.<br />

wyaro: EUROSTAT<br />

msoflio ekonomika<br />

evrozonis samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi<br />

02 dek.<br />

03 dek.<br />

bionze inflaciam daiwyo Semcireba winasaaxalwlo gayidvebisa<br />

da benzinze fasebis Semcirebis fonze. bolo naxevari<br />

wlis manZilze inflacia minimaluri gaxda. inglisis<br />

bankis SefasebiT, mimdinare wels inflacia sakmaod<br />

mniSvnelovnad Senelda, rac didi britaneTis mosaxleobas<br />

did samsaxurs gauwevs, romlebic sakuTar Tavze ganicdian<br />

ara marto biujetis deficitis radikaluri Semcirebis<br />

tvirTs, aramed savale krizisis virusis negatiur efeqts,<br />

romelmac mezobel qveynebSi ifeTqa. naTelia, rom didi<br />

britaneTis monetaruli xelisuflebisTvisac sakuTari<br />

ekonomikis mxardaWeris amocana nomer pirveli mniSvnelobis<br />

saqmea.<br />

98 dek.<br />

04 dek.<br />

didi britaneTis samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi<br />

sfi<br />

wminda sfi<br />

99 dek.<br />

00 dek.<br />

01 dek.<br />

02 dek.<br />

wyaro: londonis erovnuli statistikuri biuro<br />

03 dek.<br />

04 dek.<br />

05 dek.<br />

05 dek.<br />

06 dek.<br />

06 dek.<br />

07 dek.<br />

07 dek.<br />

08 dek.<br />

08 dek.<br />

09 dek.<br />

09 dek.<br />

1 0 dek.<br />

1 0 dek.<br />

11 dek.<br />

11 dek.<br />

71

statiebi recenzirdeba!<br />

JurnalSi `saqarTvelos<br />

ekonomika~ samecniero<br />

statiebis gamoqveynebis wesi<br />

1. mTliani statia avtorma unda warmoadginos<br />

rogorc qarTulad, ise inglisurad. sxva SemTxvevaSi<br />

saerTaSoriso doneze referirebulad ar<br />

CaiTvleba;<br />

2. yvela statiis recenzirebisTvis gansazRvrulia<br />

erTkviriani vada;<br />

3. statiaSi unda iyos miTiTebuli, Tu umuSavia<br />

vinmes am Temaze da masze Tu arsebobs seriozuli<br />

gamokvlevebi;<br />

4. avtorma samecniero statias unda daurTos<br />

oTxmocsityviani lidi;<br />

5. avtorTan SeTanxmebiT statias SeiZleba<br />

Seecvalos saTauri;<br />

6. statiaSi ar unda iyos gamoyenebuli statistikidan<br />

amoRebuli cxrili, romelsac ar eqneba<br />

darTuli avtoris analizi;<br />

7. statias unda erTvodes mxolod sqolioeb-<br />

Si miTiTebuli literatura;<br />

8. statiis qarTuli teqsti akrefili unda<br />

iyos AcadNusx-iT, inglisuri – Times New Roman – iT,<br />

daculi unda iyos 12-iani Srifti da xazebs Soris<br />

1,5-iani daSoreba;<br />

9. statia warmodgenili unda iyos A4 formatiT,<br />

6 _ 8 gverdiani moculobiT. saTauri unda<br />

Seadgebodes araumetes 8 sityvisagan;<br />

10. statiis saTauris Semdeg miTiTebuli unda<br />

iyos avtoris (an avtorebis) sruli saxeli, gvari<br />

72 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

(wodeba Tu gaCnia); avtoris telefoni da eleqtronuli<br />

misamarTi;<br />

11. Tu statia moicavs meTodologias, unda gamoiyos<br />

calke qvesaTauriT. saTaurebi unda iyos<br />

mokle, gansazRvruli da daunomravi. cxrilebi,<br />

diagramebi – minimumamde dayvanili, maqsimum – 4,<br />

Sav-TeTri, arabuli cifrebis gamoyenebiT. teqst-<br />

Si aucileblad miuTiTeT: `ix. cxrili #...~;samecniero<br />

statiaSi cxrilebis, naxazebis da sqemebis<br />

raodenoba ar unda aRematebodes 4-s.<br />

12. statiebi warmodgenli unda iyos eleqtronuli<br />

da qaRaldze amobeWdili formiT (2 egzemplarad);<br />

13. statia avtors ar ubrundeba;<br />

14. saredaqcio kolegia uzrunvelyofs statiis<br />

farul recenzirebas. ibeWdeba dadebiTi recenziis<br />

mimRebi statia;<br />

15. uaryofiTi recenziis SemTxvevaSi, sadao sakiTxi<br />

saredaqcio kolegiis sxdomaze ganixileba;<br />

16. moTxovnebis darRveviT warmodgenili masala<br />

JurnalSi ar daibeWdeba;<br />

17. Jurnalis ,,saqarTvelos ekonomika~ redaqcia<br />

pasuxs ar agebs samecniero statiebSi warmodgenili<br />

monacemebis sisworeze;<br />

18. Jurnali ,,saqarTvelos ekonomika~ Sesabamis<br />

klasifikatorSi dafiqsirebuli referirebad-recenzirebadi<br />

Jurnalia.

0-iani wlebis dasawyisidan<br />

turistuli<br />

transnacionaluri kompaniis<br />

zemoqmedebis ekonomikuri<br />

problema mecnierebis yuradRebis<br />

centrSia. dasavleT-<br />

Si gamoqveynebul iqna mravali<br />

Sroma, romelic mas yovelmxriv<br />

aRwerda. ukeTaa Seswavlili<br />

turistuli transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniis zemoqmedeba<br />

mimRebi qveynis ekonomikaze.<br />

specialistebi gamoyofen<br />

xuT ZiriTad sakiTxs:<br />

• turistuli transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniis kontroli<br />

turistuli bazris<br />

mecnieruli xedva<br />

transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebis zegavlena<br />

erovnul ekonomikaze<br />

goris saswavlo universitetis sruli<br />

profesori, xaTuna kakauriZe.<br />

studentebi: nino tramakiZe;<br />

TaTia gugutiSvili, bakalavri ssip gsu<br />

8<br />

struqturaze, turizmisa da<br />

misi calkeuli seqtorebis<br />

ganviTarebaze mimReb qveyanaSi;<br />

• kontroli turistul<br />

nakadebze;<br />

• turistul produqciaze<br />

faswarmoqmna;<br />

• saerTaSoriso turizmidan<br />

sazRvargareT Semosavlebis<br />

gadinebis problema;<br />

• turistuli transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniis teqnologiuri<br />

zegavlena qveyana<br />

– importiorebis ekonomikaze.<br />

turistuli transnacio-<br />

naluri kompaniis misazidad<br />

iniciativa Zalian xSirad<br />

modis mimRebi qveynidan, sadac<br />

adgilobrivi kompaniebi<br />

an saerTod ar arian, an<br />

maT ar gaaCniaT sakmarisi<br />

resursebi. filipinebis, indoneziis,<br />

pakistanis, Srilankas<br />

mTavrobebi ucxoel<br />

investorebs ara marto sagadasaxado<br />

SeRavaTebs aZleven,<br />

aramed zogjer aTavisufleben<br />

begarisgan danadgarebis,<br />

meqanizmebisa da<br />

masalebis importze. turistul<br />

seqtorSi, gansakuTrebiT<br />

ki sustad ganviTarebul<br />

qveynebSi, turistuli transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniis<br />

gamoCena iwvevs garedan kontrols<br />

adgilobrivi turistuli<br />

bazris struqturisa<br />

da turizmis industriis<br />

gamoCenaze. ucxoeTis aviakompanias,<br />

romelic emsaxureba<br />

patara qveynis sahaero<br />

mimosvlis saerTaSoriso<br />

xazebs, SeuZlia, winaaRmdegoba<br />

gauwios am bazarze sxva<br />

aviagadazidvebis gamosvlas,<br />

rogorc sazRvargareTuls,<br />

ise erovnulsac da daadginos<br />

axali monopolia, romelic<br />

yovelTvis ar pasuxobs<br />

mimRebi qveynis interesebs.<br />

zogierTma saxelmwifom,<br />

romelmac gaaforma kontraqtebi<br />

turistul korporaciebTan:<br />

,,xmelTaSua zRvis<br />

klubi~ (safrangeTi) an amerikul<br />

sastumros jgufebTan<br />

_ ara mxolod SezRudes<br />

konkurencia, aramed dakarg-<br />

73

es ekonomikuri ganviTarebis<br />

SerCevis Tavisufleba.<br />

daamkvidra ra Tavisi monopoliuri<br />

mdgomareoba mimRebi<br />

qveynis ekonomikaSi, turistul<br />

transnacionalur<br />

kompanias Sewevs unari, zewola<br />

moaxdinos mTavrobaze<br />

imisaTvis, rom man gazardos<br />

xarjebi infrastruqturaze.<br />

arc Tu iSviaTia<br />

SemTxvevebi, rodesac transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebi<br />

saWiroeben axali aeroportis<br />

mSeneblobas, miwiszeda<br />

transportis Camoyalibebuli<br />

sistemis Secvlas an miwaTsargeblobisstruqturis<br />

gadasinjvas. turistuli<br />

transnacionaluri kompaniebi<br />

iswrafvian, gansazRvron<br />

politika turizmis sfero-<br />

Si Tavisi sakuTari miznebis<br />

ganxorcielebisaTvis. es<br />

kargad Cans espaneTis magaliTze,<br />

sadac sargebels infrastruqturisganviTarebisgan<br />

iReben ucxoeli turistebi,<br />

xolo adgilobrivi<br />

mosaxleoba ki iZulebulia,<br />

gaiRos xarjebi mis Sesaqmnelad.<br />

senegalSi ganviTarebis<br />

IV nacionaluri gegmis farglebSi<br />

turistuli infrastruqturis<br />

mSeneblobaze<br />

gamoyofili iyo 23 mlrd.<br />

seneg. franki e. i. saxelmwifo<br />

biujetis 12%. Sesadareblad:<br />

danaxarjebma jandacvaze<br />

imave periodSi Seadgina<br />

mxolod 3.4 mlrd, ganaTlebaze<br />

_ 7.4 mlrd., soflis<br />

meurneobaze _ 24 mlrd.<br />

seneg. frankiani turistuli<br />

obieqtebis didi kapitaltevadobis<br />

gamo ganviTarebadi<br />

qveynebi iZulebuli arian,<br />

aiRon sesxebi da kreditebi<br />

turistuli transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniis moTxovnebis<br />

Sesabamisad infrastruqturis<br />

Sesaqmnelad. zemoT-<br />

CamoTvlili problemebis<br />

miuxedavad, zogierTi qveyana<br />

Zveleburad xsnis turistul<br />

bazrebs turistuli<br />

74 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

transnacionaluri kompaniisTvis,<br />

ukavSirebs ra maT<br />

ukanasknel imeds CamorCenilobis<br />

dasaZlevad. amasTan<br />

erTad, mTavrobebi xdebian<br />

ufro diplomatiurebi transnacionalur<br />

kompaniebTan<br />

molaparakebebis Casatareblad.<br />

saerTaSoriso turizmis<br />

ganviTarebasTan erTad<br />

izrdeba turistuli transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniis<br />

raodenobac, romlebic cdiloben<br />

gazardon TavianTi<br />

zegavlenis sfero da mimRebi<br />

mxare sul ufro met Zalauflebas<br />

iZens maTTan<br />

SeTanxmebis gaformebisas.<br />

turistuli transnacionaluri<br />

kompania kontrolis<br />

Sedegad zegavlenas axdens<br />

qveyana-recipientis ekonomikaze,<br />

turistul nakadebze.<br />

turizmis sferoSi transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebis<br />

saqmianobam ganapiroba Zvrebi<br />

turistuli moTxovnebis<br />

geografiaSi, Secvala mimosvlaTa<br />

nakadebis mimarTuleba.<br />

aiZules ra xelisuflebebi,<br />

gadaexedaT fiskaluri<br />

politika da gaezardaT xarjebi<br />

turistul infrastruqturaze,<br />

maT gamoiwvies saer-<br />

TaSoriso turizmis aRmasvla<br />

mraval raionSi.<br />

amasTan erTad, turistuli<br />

transnacionaluri kompaniis<br />

Zalisxmeva destinaciaSi<br />

turistebis misazidad, arc<br />

Tu iSviaTad ewinaaRmdegeba<br />

erovnuli turistuli administraciebis<br />

interesebs. es<br />

ukanasknelni miznobrivi<br />

saxiT xSirad irCeven elitaruli<br />

turistebis viwro<br />

sabazro segments, imedi aqvT<br />

ra, rom eqnebaT maRali Semosavali<br />

maTi momsaxurebis<br />

Sedegad. magram transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniisTvis,<br />

romelic xelmZRvanelobs<br />

mogebis maqsimizaciis principiT,<br />

SesaZlebelia, ufro<br />

xelsayreli iyos masobriv<br />

turizmTan muSaoba. mis mier<br />

organizebuli da marTuli<br />

farTo turistuli nakadebi<br />

saSiSroebas Seicavs adgilobrivi<br />

kulturisa da bunebis<br />

garemosTvis. adgenen ra<br />

kontrols turistul nakadebze,<br />

turistuli transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebi iyeneben<br />

am berkets mimReb qveyanaze<br />

zemoqmedebisTvis dawesebuli<br />

sagadasaxado da sxva<br />

saxis SeRavaTebis gafarToebis<br />

mizniT. 70-iani wlebis<br />

bolos tunisis mTavrobis<br />

moqmedebis sapasuxod, romelic<br />

winaaRmdegobas uwevda<br />

erT-erTi dasavleT germanuli<br />

turistuli korporaciis<br />

isedac uzarmazari mogebis<br />

zrdas, firmam mkveTrad<br />

Seamcira germaneli turistebis<br />

Seyvana (60 aTasidan 12<br />

aTasamde) qveyanaSi, riTac<br />

mniSvnelovani ziani miayena<br />

tunisis ekonomikas. amgvarad,<br />

yalibdeba axalgazrda<br />

saxelmwifoebis ucxour<br />

kapitalze damokidebuleba.<br />

Tanamedrove transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebi gamoirCevian<br />

qcevis globaluri<br />

strategiiT mogzaurobebis<br />

msoflio bazarze. isini<br />

Tavis gamoxatulebas hpoveben<br />

transfertuli faswarmoqmnis<br />

meqanizmSi. axdenen<br />

ra turistuli produqciis<br />

komponentebis fasebiT manipulirebas,<br />

erT SemTxveva-<br />

Si maTi gazrdiT, sxva SemTxvevaSi,<br />

piriqiT, SemcirebiT,<br />

transnacionaluri kompaniebi<br />

zrdian korporaciul<br />

mogebas. fasebis donis cvalebadoba<br />

ar aris transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniis gamogoneba.<br />

is Cveulebriv komerciuli<br />

praqtikaa. kontragentebs<br />

Soris SeTanxmebis SemTxveva-<br />

Si xdeba sabazo fasis gazrda<br />

an Semcireba. mravali<br />

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis<br />

mimarT moqmedebs Camofaseba<br />

brunvaze, romelic gamoiyeneba<br />

sabiTumo Sesyidvebis<br />

dros. turizmSi aseve far-<br />

Tod gamoiyeneba sezonuri<br />

Camofasebebi produqciis

SeZenisas ara sezonis mixedviT,<br />

ris Sedegadac Tanabarzomieri<br />

xdeba moTxovna da<br />

winadadeba. turoperatorebi<br />

da turagentebi, rogorc Suamavlebi<br />

turistuli momsaxurebis<br />

mimwodeblisgan<br />

iReben fasdaklebas gasaRebaze,<br />

rac maT saSualebas<br />

aZlevT, gauZlon fasobriv<br />

konkurencias bazarze. magaliTad,<br />

germaneli da britaneli<br />

turoperatorebi cnobilni<br />

arian espanuri da<br />

berZnuli otelebis momsaxurebiTa<br />

da iq garTobis<br />

Zalian dabali fasebiT. fasebis<br />

done yovel konkretul<br />

SemTxvevaSi yalibdeba sxvadasxva<br />

garigebis monawileebs<br />

Soris SeTanxmebis<br />

Sedegad. es principi moqmedebs<br />

transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniis produqtebze<br />

faswarmoqmnis drosac. transnacionaluri<br />

kompania molaparakebebis<br />

mxolod<br />

garkveul formas da Sigasafirmo<br />

xasiaTs aniWebs. erTerTi<br />

yvelze mZafri problema,<br />

rac dakavSirebulia<br />

transnacionaluri kompaniis<br />

sazRvargareT saqmianobasTan,<br />

es aris saerTa-<br />

Soriso turizmidan miRebuli<br />

Semosavlis gadineba mim-<br />

Rebi qveynidan. is iSleba<br />

or Semadgenel nawilad:<br />

importirebuli saqonlis<br />

(momsaxurebis) anazRaureba<br />

da sawarmoo resursebis<br />

mflobelTaTvis jildos<br />

gadaxda. Catarebuli kvlevebi<br />

gviCveneben, rom transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniis sazRvargareTul<br />

filialebs midrekileba<br />

aqvT, iseve moaxdinon<br />

saqonlis (momsaxurebis)<br />

importireba, rogorc<br />

adgilobrivma kompaniebma.<br />

ufro metic, mravali transnacionaluri<br />

kompania cdilobs,<br />

ra rom Seiqmnas da<br />

SeinarCunos Tavisi dadebi-<br />

Ti imiji mimReb qveynebSi,<br />

winaswarganzraxulad iyenebs<br />

adgilobriv resursebs<br />

iq, sadac ki es SesaZlebelia.<br />

magram amasTan erTad,<br />

transnacionaluri kompaniebi,<br />

gansakuTrebiT ki turizmSi,<br />

mtkice kavSirs inar-<br />

mecnieruli xedva<br />

Cuneben Tavisi warmoSobis<br />

qveyanasTan. isini orientacias<br />

akeTeben ,,mSobliuri~<br />

mnaxvelebis miRebaze. magaliTad,<br />

aSS-is msxvilma sastumros<br />

kompaniebma daiwyes<br />

gasvla erovnul sazRvrebs<br />

gareT, sawarmoTa jaWvis Seqmna<br />

da amerikuli stumarTmoyvareobis<br />

standartebis<br />

gavrceleba gasvliTi turistuli<br />

nakadebis gafarToebiT.<br />

dRes mTels msoflio-<br />

Si gafantuli otelebi, romlebic<br />

gaerTianebulia ,,aiti-ti<br />

Seratonisa~ Tu ,,hilton<br />

houtelz korporeiSnis~<br />

tipis sastumroebis jaWveb-<br />

Si, TavianTi Tanamemamuleebis<br />

gemovnebis gaTvaliswinebiT<br />

ewevian ludisa<br />

da sigaretebis imports aSSdan.<br />

iaponuri transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebis filialebs<br />

sarestorno meurneobaSi<br />

iaponiidan SeaqvT<br />

kvebis produqtebi da aveji.<br />

meore xazi, rac aiZulebs<br />

filialebs moaxdinon saqonlisa<br />

da momsaxurebis importi,<br />

dakavSirebulia standar-<br />

aleqsandre xeTagurma qarTul energetikul<br />

reformebi ruseTis akademiur wreebs gaacno<br />

19 ianvars energetikisa da bunebrivi resursebis ministri<br />

aleqsandre xeTaguri ruseTis akademiuri wreebis,<br />

sxvadasxva tipis uflebadacviTi da media organizaciebis<br />

warmomadgenlebs Sexvda da saqarTvelos energoseqtorSi<br />

ganxorcielebul reformebs gaacno.<br />

ministrTan Sexvedra proeqtis `qarTvel da rus axalgazrda<br />

profesionalTa dialogis~ farglebSi moewyo,<br />

romelsac `kulturul urTierTobaTa centri-kavkasiuri<br />

saxli~ cnobili rusi Jurnalistis oleg panfilovis<br />

xelmZRvanelobiT axorcielebs. proeqtis mizania, ormxrivi<br />

urTierTobebis gaZlierebiT, xeli Seuwyos ndobis<br />

mSeneblobasa da grZelvadian mSvidobas qarTul da<br />

rusul sazogadoebebs Soris.<br />

aRniSnuli proeqtis farglebSi saqarTveloSi stumrad<br />

Camosuli ruseTis samoqalaqo sazogadoebis warmomadgenlebi<br />

qarTvel kolegebTan erTad, Sexvedrebs<br />

saqarTvelos saxelmwifo struqturebis, arasamTavrobo<br />

seqtoris warmomadgenlebsa da damoukidebel<br />

eqspertebTan marTaven.<br />

75

tizaciis globalur procesebTan<br />

da ,,mSobliuri~ qveynis<br />

saxis SeqmnasTan. mag.,<br />

aviakompania ,,er fransi~ win<br />

wevs Tavis frangul markas,<br />

xolo kompania ,,roial viking<br />

laini~ yvelaferSi<br />

xazs usvams Tavis skandinaviur<br />

warmoSobas. saqonlisa da<br />

momsaxurebis importi saer-<br />

TaSoriso turistul bazarze<br />

xarjebis sakmaod SesamCnevi<br />

statiaa mravali ganviTarebadi<br />

qveynis saxelmwifo<br />

biujetebSi. es operaciebi<br />

Tumca ganapirobeben<br />

valutis gadinebas sazRvargareT,<br />

magram arc ise dids,<br />

rogorc es iqneboda im<br />

SemTxvevaSi, Tu ki transnacionaluri<br />

kompania mimReb<br />

qveyanas dauTmobda garkveuli<br />

anazRaurebis safasurad<br />

turistuli produqciis warmoebis<br />

faqtors. Cadebul<br />

kapitalze transnacionaluri<br />

kompania iRebs Semosavals<br />

procentis saxiT,<br />

romelsac is ricxavs ,,sam-<br />

SobloSi~. mis filialebSi<br />

dakavebuli muSa-xelis ZiriTadi<br />

nawili, gansakuTrebiT<br />

ki umaRlesi da saSualo<br />

76 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

zonis menejerebi _ es aris<br />

sazRvargareTidan mowveuli<br />

kvalificiuri kadri. Tavisi<br />

SromisTvis isini iReben<br />

Zalian maRal anazRaurebas,<br />

rasac ricxaven mudmiv sacxovrebel<br />

adgilze.<br />

aRsaniSnavia, rom mimRebi<br />

qveyana saerTaSoriso<br />

turizmidan Semosavlebis<br />

did nawils kargavs transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebis<br />

mier TavianTi mogebis gazidvis<br />

Sedegad. miuxedavad<br />

imisa, aris Tu ara transnacionaluri<br />

kompania sawarmos<br />

mepatrone, Tu kontraqtiT<br />

marTavs mas, mas mainc<br />

aqvs samewarmeo Semosavali<br />

anu mogeba. transfertuli<br />

faswarmoqmnis meqanizmis sa-<br />

SualebiT mogeba SeiZleba<br />

gadatanil iqnas erTi qveynidan<br />

meoreSi yovelgvari<br />

xiluli gadinebis gareSe.<br />

aqedan gamomdinare, mimRebi<br />

qveynis ekonomikaSi saerTa-<br />

Soriso turizmis CarTva SesaZlebelia<br />

adgilobrivi<br />

muSa Zalis mozidvis Sedegad<br />

(saubaria samuSaoebis<br />

iseT saxeobebze, romlebic<br />

ar moiTxovs maRal kvali-<br />

fikacias da specialur momzadebas),<br />

adgilobrivi<br />

masalebis gamoyenebisas<br />

turistuli kompleqsis aR-<br />

Wurvisas, agreTve sasoflosameurneo<br />

produqtebis<br />

gamoyenebis Sedegad ucxoeli<br />

vizitorebis gamosakvebad.<br />

am SemTxvevaSi saerTa-<br />

Soriso turizmi zrdis qveyanarecipientis<br />

mSp-s, xels<br />

uwyobs mis ekonomikur ganviTarebas.<br />

erovnul ekonomikaze<br />

transnacionaluri kompaniis<br />

zemoqmedebis Sefaseba<br />

ar iqneba sruli, Tu yuradRebas<br />

ar mivaqcevT transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebis<br />

rols codnis, gamocdilebis,<br />

teqnologiuri saidumloebebis<br />

(imis, rasac dasavleTSi<br />

,,nou-haus~ uwodeben)<br />

gadacemis kuTxiT. teqnologiebis<br />

transferti SeiniSneba,<br />

ara marto restornebis<br />

meurneobaSi, aramed sastumroebis,turoperatorebis<br />

da turistuli industriis<br />

sxva seqtorebSi. ganaTavseben<br />

ra sazRvargareT<br />

sawarmoebs, xSirad inovaciursac,<br />

transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebi uaxlesi teqni-<br />

saqarTvelosTan aviamimosvla<br />

aRdgenilia, `borjomi~ ki ruseTSi<br />

ramdenime TveSi dabrundeba<br />

saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris aviamimosvla faqtobrivad<br />

aRdgenilia. marTalia, avia-xelisuflebebi moskovi-Tbilisis<br />

reisebs Carters uwodeben, rusuli „sibiri~ da qarTuli „airzena~<br />

TavianT saitebze bileTebs Riad hyidian.<br />

amis Sesaxeb rusuli gazeTi Rbcdaily wers. Tumca, gamocemis<br />

informaciiT, pirdapiri aviareisebiT mgzavroba TiTqmis orjer<br />

Zviri jdeba, vidre mesame qveynis gavliT frena. magaliTad,<br />

martSi „sibiris~ aRniSnul reisebze bileTi 15,5 aTasi rubli<br />

eRireba. aseTive fasi aqvs „airzenasac~. kievis gavliT moskovidan<br />

TbilisSi an piriqiT mgzavroba ki TiTqmis orjer<br />

naklebi jdeba. Rbcdaily-is SefasebiT, Tbilissa da ruseTs Soris<br />

aviareisebze maRali moTxovnaa, Tumca turistuli nakadi politikuri<br />

mizezebis gamo TiTqmis ar aris. Rbcdaily rusul bazarze<br />

qarTuli produqciis SesaZlo dabrunebazec wers da<br />

aRniSnavs, rom ruseTSi „borjomis~ miwodeba savaraudod<br />

uaxloes TveebSi ganaxldeba.

kisa da srulyofili teqnologiis<br />

gamoyenebiT<br />

demonstrirebas ukeTeben<br />

TavianT upiratesobebs nacionalur<br />

kompaniebTan SedarebiT.<br />

am ukanasknelebs<br />

gadmoaqvT mmarTvelobiTi<br />

da samewamreo gamocdileba,<br />

zrdian ra amiT TavianT<br />

konkurentunarioanobas.<br />

iseT qveynebSi, rogorebicaa<br />

tailandi da tunisi, sadac<br />

turizmSi mowinave sazRvargareTuli<br />

gamocdileba gansakuTrebiT<br />

swrafad vrceldeba,<br />

SeiniSneba mogebis<br />

aCqarebuli zrda mogzaurobis<br />

industriis adgilobriv<br />

sawarmoebSi. zogier-<br />

Ti mTavroba calke gamoyofs<br />

teqnologiis transferts,<br />

rogorc transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniis saqmianobis<br />

pirobas maTi saxelmwifos<br />

teritoriaze. transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebi ekonomikur<br />

zegavlenas axdenen<br />

ara marto mimReb, aramed<br />

,,mSobliur~ qveyanaSic. es,<br />

internacionalizaciis meore<br />

mxare Seswavlilia gac-<br />

ilebiT cudad. turistul<br />

transnacionalur kompaniebs<br />

SeuZliaT Secvalon mogzaurobebis<br />

Siga bazris<br />

struqtura da turistuli<br />

produqtis warmoebis rentabeloba.<br />

jer erTi, patara<br />

qveyanaSi, sadac turizmis<br />

bazris tevadoba ar aris<br />

sakmarisi warmoebis masSta-<br />

mecnieruli xedva<br />

bidan ekonomiis misaRebad,<br />

singapuris aviaxazebis tipis<br />

korporaciebi orientirebas<br />

iReben ekonomikuri<br />

strategiis ,,saeqsporto variantze~.<br />

msoflio ekonomikaSi<br />

integraciis gareSe<br />

isini ver SeZlebdnen arsebobas.<br />

meore, transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebi investicie-<br />

limonaTis da mineraluri wylebis<br />

markirebis Sesaxeb kanonproeqti mzaddeba<br />

Semosavlebis samsaxuri limonaTis da<br />

mineraluri wylebis markirebis Sesaxeb kanonproeqts<br />

amzadebs. samsaxuris ufrosis ganmartebiT,<br />

gadawyvetileba ukavSirdeba imas,<br />

rom qveyanaSi limonaTis warmoebasTan dakav-<br />

SirebiT sakmaod didi riskebia.<br />

jaba ebanoiZis TqmiT, markirebis axali<br />

sistemis danergviT SesaZlebeli xdeba aqcizur<br />

da araaqcizur saqonelze qaRalduri<br />

da uSualo markirebis ganxorcieleba; monacemTa<br />

marTvis erTiani centralizebuli<br />

sistemis Seqmna; adgilobrivi da importirebuli<br />

produqciis markirebis Sesaxeb informaciis<br />

realur droSi floba; samomxmareblo<br />

bazarze markirebuli saqonlis moZraobis<br />

kontroli da momxmareblis<br />

dacva falsificirebuli saqonlis<br />

moxmarebisgan.<br />

77

s mimarTaven im destinaciebSi,<br />

romlebic uzrunvelyofen<br />

zRvrulad maRal<br />

Semosavlebs da amiT xels<br />

uwyoben turizmis erovnul<br />

industriaSi Cadebul kapitalze<br />

saSualo Semosavlis<br />

zrdas. mesame, nakadSi gasvliTi<br />

turizmis produqtebis<br />

warmoebaSi CaSvebiT, isini<br />

agdeben fasebis dones<br />

Siga bazarze. meoTxe, gasvliTi<br />

turizmze daxelovnebuli<br />

transnacionaluri kompaniebi<br />

Rebuloben bazirebis<br />

qveynis bazarze monopolistur<br />

sargeblobas.<br />

Tuki mas aqvs oligopoliuri<br />

struqtura, korporaciebi<br />

erTiandebian blokebSi<br />

TavianTi sabazro pozi-<br />

78 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

ciebis dasacavad. da bolos,<br />

transnacionaluri kompaniebi<br />

erovnul ekonomikaze Sualedur<br />

zegavlenas axdenen<br />

turistuli nakadebis saSualebiT.<br />

mogzaurobebis bazarze<br />

maTi yofna, gansakuTrebiT<br />

ki iseTi Zlierebis,<br />

rogorebic evropuli turoperatorebi<br />

arian, xSirad<br />

xdeba gasvliTi turizmis<br />

aqtivizaciis erT-erTi mizezi.<br />

sazRvargareT gasvlaTa<br />

raodenobis gazrdiTa da mas-<br />

Tan dakavSirebuli qveynidan<br />

valutis gadinebiT, iqmneba<br />

turistuli sagadamxdelo<br />

balansis uaryofiTi saldo.<br />

amasTan erTad, swored transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebis<br />

saqmianobis Sedegad SesaZle-<br />

gamoyenebuli literatura:<br />

beli xdeba turistebis gatanili<br />

valutis nawilis sam-<br />

SobloSi dabruneba.<br />

transnacionlizaciis<br />

procesebi maTi gamovlenis<br />

Tanamedrove formebSi ZalianurTierTsawinaaRmdegoa.<br />

cxeli diskusiebi transnacionaluri<br />

kompaniebis<br />

Sesaxeb, romelTac safuZvlad<br />

udevT RirebulebiTi, ideologiuri<br />

da politikuri<br />

uTanxmoebebi socialur-ekonomikuri<br />

ganviTarebis bunebasa<br />

da wyaroebze, agreTve<br />

nacionaluri usafrTxoebis<br />

saSiSroebaze, izrdeba, transnacionaluri<br />

firmebis<br />

zrdisa da maTi ekonomikuri<br />

eqspansiis gafarToebis Sesabamisad.<br />

1. metreveli m. “turizmis Tanamedrove mdgomareoba da misi ganviTarebis perspeqtivebi<br />

saqarTveloSi~ sadisertacio naSromi Tb., 2001.<br />

2. saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2006; Tb. 2007. gv. 70<br />

3. SublaZe v. “saqarTveloSi turizmis ganviTarebis makroekonomikuri regulirebis<br />

meqanizmi (siRaribis daZlevis konteqstSi) sadisertacio naSromi. Tb., 2004.<br />

4. CikvaiZe T. ekonomikuri globalizaciisa da integraciis axali paradigma: arsi,<br />

problemebi, perspeqtivebi. – J., “komersanti~, 2 2007<br />

5. Александрова А.Ю. Международный туризм. М., 2003.

CONTENT<br />

IRAKLI TEDORADZE.<br />

OPEC — THE DOMINANT PLAYER OF THE WORLD OIL MARKET--- 80<br />

ADJARA TOURISM DEPARTMENT‘S ANNUAL REPORT---------------- 80<br />

LAZIKA PROJECT SCARES RUSSIANS -------------------------------------- 85<br />

OPIC TRANSFERS 5 MLN TO TELLIANI VALLEY--------------------------- 86<br />

79

OPEC — THE DOMINANT<br />

PLAYER OF THE WORLD<br />

OIL MARKET<br />

IRAKLI TEDORADZE<br />

T<br />

he aim of the article is<br />

to clarify the System<br />

of OPEC, how does it works,<br />

how OPEC does monopolize oil<br />

production and pricing. Also we<br />

will highlight the historical conditions<br />

that caused such kind<br />

of monopoly and changes of the<br />

world demand conditions.<br />

Oil, due to its specific nature,<br />

is a key product and a strategic<br />

commodity in today’s international<br />

society. All over the world industry<br />

is depending on it to survive<br />

and its cost will always affect<br />

the price of the finished product,<br />

thereby its control is a powerful<br />

tool in today’s international<br />

market. According to the EIA1 (U.S. Energy Information Administration),<br />

the world currently<br />

consumes 85.64 million barrels of<br />

crude oil daily – roughly equivalent<br />

to every single person on the<br />

planet using 2 liters of oil a day.<br />

With the current market prices of<br />

a barrel of oil being $113.05, global<br />

consumption of oil costs $8.7<br />

billion every single day or $1.25<br />

for every person. Of course, the<br />

global distribution of oil consumption<br />

is not evenly spread out<br />

and developed and oil-rich states<br />

consume far more oil than less<br />

developed states. Also, all of this<br />

oil is not simply consumed with<br />

an end product. Oil is involved in<br />

the manufacture of a large number<br />

of everyday items, such as<br />

1 EIA official dates.<br />

80 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

plastics, asphalt, or fertilizers.<br />

All the above leads to the fact<br />

that oil prices fluctuate around $<br />

110 whereas the cost of producing<br />

is approximately 20 times less.<br />

Despite this, there is no sharp increase<br />

in the supply and it has lasted<br />

for decades, since 1973. There<br />

is monopoly pricing and production<br />

- which is dictated by OPEC<br />

(Organization of Petroleum Exporting<br />

Countries).<br />

The first move towards the<br />

establishment of the Organization<br />

of the Petroleum Exporting Countries<br />

(OPEC) took place in 1949,<br />

when Venezuela approached Iran,<br />

Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and<br />

suggested that they should exchange<br />

views and explore revenues<br />

for regular and closer communications<br />

between them.<br />

The need for closer cooper-<br />

ation became more apparent<br />

when, in 1959, the oil companies<br />

inexplicable reduced the posted<br />

price for Venezuelan crude between<br />

5¢ to 25¢ per barrel and that<br />

for the Middle East by 18¢/b. This<br />

prompted the convening of the<br />

First Arab Petroleum Congress<br />

which took place in Cairo, Egypt.<br />

The Congress adopted a resolution<br />

calling on oil companies to<br />

consult with the governments of<br />

the producing countries before<br />

taking any decision on oil prices.<br />

It also set up the general agreement<br />

on the establishment of an `Oil<br />

Consultation Commission’.<br />

In August 1960, the oil companies<br />

further reduced Middle<br />

East posted prices for crude by<br />

between 10¢ and 14¢/b. The following<br />

month, the Government of<br />

Iraq invited Iran, Kuwait, Saudi<br />

ADJARA TOURISM<br />

DEPARTMENT‘S ANNUAL REPORT<br />

Tourism Department of the Adjara Region summed up the year 2011<br />

at the briefing today. Department‘s authorities say the year was very<br />

successful from the point of view of the tourist attraction, as the number<br />

of visitors to the region increased with 39%.<br />

In 2012, the department offers five novelties to the visitors in 2012.<br />

Within the infrastructure development project, the department foresees<br />

opening of new hotels, new tourist info-centers, holding agriculture exhibitions,<br />

development of cycle racing in Batumi and skiing-tourism in mountainous<br />

regions of Adjara.<br />

The head of the Adjara Tourism Department Vazha Diasamidze said<br />

the international prize given to Batumi as the best resort city and the<br />

record number of visitors in winter proved that the region was developing.<br />

He said the results were satisfactory, however, the department<br />

would intensify its efforts to improve these results.

Scientific View<br />

Arabia and Venezuela have to meet in Baghdad, to discuss the inexplicable reduction in prices of crude’s<br />

produced by their respective countries.<br />

As a result, from 10–14 September 1960, a conference was held in Baghdad, attended by representatives<br />

of the Governments of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. It was this First Conference<br />

which established OPEC as a permanent intergovernmental organization of oil-exporting developing nations<br />

that coordinates and unifies the petroleum policies of its Member Countries. OPEC seeks to ensure the<br />

stabilization of oil prices in international oil markets, with a view to eliminate harmful and unnecessary<br />

fluctuations, due to being given at any time to the interests of oil-producing nations and to the necessity of<br />

securing a steady income for them. Equally important is OPEC’s role in overseeing an efficient, economic and<br />

regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations, and a fair return on capital to those investing in the<br />

petroleum industry.<br />

OPEC member courtiers 2 :<br />

OPEC’s monopoly position in the world oil market is determined by the several factors. Let discuss<br />

them in chronological order:<br />

The First Oil Shock (1973 – 1975). The 1973 oil crisis started in October 1973, when the members of<br />

Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries or the OPEC (consisting of the Arab members of<br />

OPEC, plus Egypt, Syria and Tunisia) proclaimed an oil embargo “in response to the U.S. decision to resupply<br />

the Israeli military~ during the Yom Kippur war; it lasted until March 1974. 4 With the US actions seen<br />

as initiating the oil embargo and the long term possibility of high oil prices, disrupted supply and recession,<br />

a strong rift was created within NATO. Additionally, some European nations and Japan sought to avoid<br />

themselves from the US Middle East policy. Arab oil producers had also linked the end of the embargo with<br />

successful US efforts to create peace in the Middle East, which complicated the situation. Independently,<br />

the OPEC members agreed to use their leverage over the world price setting mechanism for oil to stabilize<br />

2 Ecuador suspended its Membership in December 1992 and reactivated it in December 2007. Gabon, which became a Full<br />

Member in 1975, terminated its Membership with effect from 1 January 1995. Indonesia, which became a Full Member in 1962,<br />

suspended its Membership in December 2008.<br />

3 Ecuador suspended its Membership in December 1992 and reactivated it in December 2007. Gabon, which became a Full<br />

Member in 1975, terminated its Membership with effect from 1 January 1995. Indonesia, which became a Full Member in 1962,<br />

suspended its Membership in December 2008.<br />

4 Hubbert, Marion King (June 1956). “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels `Drilling and Production Practice’~ (PDF). Spring<br />

Meeting of the Southern District. Division of Production. American Petroleum Institute. San Antonio, Texas: Shell Development<br />

Company. pp. 22–27.<br />

81

their real incomes by raising world oil prices. This<br />

action followed several years of steep income declines<br />

after the recent failure of negotiations with<br />

the major Western oil companies earlier in the month.<br />

Impact of the 1973-1975 oil shock on the world<br />

economy 5 :<br />

• The growth rate fell to 2.1% in 1974 and to<br />

1.4% in 1975.<br />

• The impact on worldwide trade also was<br />

tremendous: after a growth rate of 12% in 1973,<br />

growth was negative in the following two years -<br />

5.4% and -7.3% in 1975.<br />

• Another factor which has changed significantly<br />

was the flow of Foreign Direct Investment.<br />

While the annual Foreign Direct Investment Growth<br />

reached 40% in 1973, the rate fell by half in 1974.<br />

• The oil shock of 1973-1974 had had a big<br />

effect on the US economy; however its GDP growth<br />

fell from more than 5.7% in 1973 to -0.5% and -<br />

0.19% in 1974 and 1975.<br />

• Another factor which was significantly affected<br />

by this oil shock is inflation, which was more<br />

than tripled from 1972 to 1974, from 3.3% to 11.1%.<br />

• These changes also impacted upon the unemployment<br />

rate, which rose from 4.9% in 1973 to approximately<br />

8.5% in 1975. 6<br />

The Second Oil Shock (1979 – 1980). The 1979<br />

(or second) oil crisis in the world occurred in the wake<br />

of the Iranian Revolution. This crisis has an impact on<br />

the world economy which was emphasized in:<br />

1. Worldwide economy growth slightly decreased<br />

from 4.7% in 1978 to 4% in 1979 to reach<br />

0.8% in 1982.<br />

2. greater fluctuation in the international trade,<br />

from 5.2% to -3.1% in 1982.<br />

3. US GDP growth fell by 0.23% in 1980 and<br />

unemployment in the US rose from 5.8% in 1979 to<br />

7.6% in 1981 and 9.7% in 1982. also US inflation<br />

rose from 7.6% in 1978 to 13.5% in 1980.<br />

From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted<br />

price of a barrel of crude oil on<br />

NYMEX was generally under $25/barrel. During 2003,<br />

the price rose above $30, reached $60 by August 11,<br />

2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008. annalists<br />

were attributed these price increasing to many factors,<br />

including reports from the United States Department<br />

of Energy and others showing a decline in pe-<br />

5 The conclusions are based on IMF statistical annual publications.<br />

82 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

troleum reserves, 7 worries over peak oil, 8 Middle East<br />

tension, and oil price speculation. But the most important<br />

in the dominant role of OPEC is the oil reserves<br />

which this organization has 9 Alternative sources<br />

of energy are not so efficient as an oil or the business<br />

risks are higher. All mentioned above makes<br />

OPEC a dominant player in the world oil market.<br />

The natural strength of OPEC arises from the distribution<br />

of oil production capacity among members.<br />

Countries with large populations and considerable development<br />

require to be tended to smaller oil reserves. 10<br />

When we are talking about OPEC we have to<br />

underline that OPEC is a non typical cartel. It has its<br />

own distinctive features, which makes it possible to<br />

operate efficiently and do not decompose, which<br />

contradicts the traditional theory of international cartels.<br />

So what has caused such a stability of OPEC?<br />

Certainly this is the specific nature of oil, the mentality<br />

of the participants, special flexible rules of quoting<br />

and the allocation. OPEC is a Cartel but the main<br />

difference is that it’s a cartel of countries of mostly<br />

one, Muslim ideology; the natural wealth of OPEC<br />

is not the case of one day. It has to save resources<br />

for the next generations even to the account of today’s<br />

profit. OPEC is a cartel which monopolies<br />

specific product – oil on the world market.<br />

The success of OPEC is defined not only by<br />

the monopolization of oil but also by the Arabian<br />

mentalities of member countries and the overall ideas<br />

where the West is existed in the role of enemy. In<br />

spite of a profit it draws more attention to the unity<br />

of their Arabian originality.<br />

OPEC Member Countries respond to market fundamentals<br />

and forecast developments by coordinating<br />

their petroleum policies.<br />

Production quotas are one possible response.<br />

If demand grows, or some producers supply less<br />

oil, OPEC can increase its oil production to prevent a<br />

sudden rise in prices or shortfall in supply. OPEC<br />

might also reduce its oil production in response to<br />

market conditions, as a means of countering falling<br />

prices or a glut on the market.<br />

The impact of OPEC output decisions on crude oil<br />

prices must be considered separately from the issue of<br />

changes in the prices of oil products, such as gasoline<br />

or heating oil. There are many factors that influence the<br />

prices paid by end-consumers for oil products. So even<br />

6 Licklider, Roy (1988), “The Power of Oil: The Arab Oil Weapon and the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan,<br />

and the United States~, International Studies Quarterly 32 (2): 205–226 [p. 206].<br />

7 “Record oil price sets the scene for $200 next year~. AME. July 6, 2006.. Retrieved 2007-11-29.<br />

8 “Peak Oil News Clearinghouse~. EnergyBulletin.net.<br />

9 OPEC official site.<br />

10 H. Houthakker. The world price of oil: A medium-term analysis p.13.

a major change in the price of crude<br />

might have only a minor impact on<br />

consumer prices.<br />

In general most members<br />

have always produced within their<br />

quotas but there have been many<br />

cases when members cheat 11 . In<br />

their settlement among the OPEC<br />

countries Saudi Arabia is the most<br />

influential Member. Other member<br />

nations can produce as within<br />

their Quota limit (which is almost<br />

close to their maximum capacity)<br />

but Saudi Arabia works as<br />

a swing producer meaning that in<br />

case any fluctuation in oil production<br />

Saudi Arabia will cover any<br />

loss or gain in production. This<br />

way the overall production will be<br />

at stable limit. Nations can produce<br />

other hydrocarbon grades<br />

not within OPEC quota limits.<br />

OPEC doesn’t have specific<br />

regulations of voting and allocation<br />

process. Neither OPEC statue, nor<br />

other standing orders contain the<br />

description of this issue. That’s<br />

11 Emma, Ukpana: “OPEC as a Cartel:<br />

Can US antitrust laws are applied extraterritorially?~<br />

why we will have to summarize<br />

the OPEC’s reports of final meeting.<br />

OPEC consumes the simple<br />

majority system. It will be extremely<br />

simple to explain only with<br />

this words the system of voting if<br />

we go through the issue deeper it<br />

will be found out that is very complicated<br />

and inexhaustible.<br />

With in taking decision OPEC<br />

based on two backwards:<br />

• On the one hand maximization<br />

goal of profit and<br />

• Other hand interests of each<br />

member countries<br />

It’s too complicated to reach<br />

balance between of these two sides.<br />

Saudi Arabia as a core producer and<br />

exporter which has main role to take<br />

the responsibility for itself.<br />

Absence of voting rules and<br />

problems connected with it clearly<br />

revealed in OPEC’s quota system<br />

decision, where OPEC prefers to<br />

“close eye~ to the cheating in order<br />

to avoid the official precedent<br />

of quoting changes.<br />

In the picture 1 we see the<br />

world oil price curve which illustrate<br />

the rising of price<br />

Scientific View<br />

The US Energy Information<br />

Administration (EIA) and the International<br />

Energy Agency (IEA)<br />

should make official statements<br />

about declining world oil production<br />

now to renew the focus on<br />

oil conservation and alternative<br />

renewable energy sources 12 .<br />

As it is already known the<br />

formation of prices depends on<br />

two factors: demand and supply.<br />

So to make a prediction about the<br />

future of oil prices we must take<br />

into account two aspects - the<br />

policy of OPEC as the major supplier,<br />

and the demand of oil consumer<br />

countries: where United<br />

States with 19,150,000 million<br />

bbl/day consumption is the first,<br />

China is the world’s second largest<br />

oil consuming country<br />

with 9.1 million bbl/day. Japan<br />

ranked third word’s oil consuming<br />

country with oil consumption<br />

of 4.6 million bbl/day. India is the<br />

fifth largest oil consuming country<br />

with 3.1 million bbl/day.<br />

Over the past decade, China’s<br />

oil consumption has doubled<br />

12 EIA dates.<br />

83

Pic. 1.<br />

to more than 9.1 million barrels a<br />

day. And many believes that the<br />

next decade could be seen as even<br />

larger increase, as the country’s<br />

demand has been growing at a<br />

20%. It has even become the<br />

world’s second biggest importer<br />

of oil, relying on outside sources<br />

for about 5 million out of the 9.1<br />

million barrels of oil a day it uses.<br />

In January 2010, China’s oil demand<br />

increased by 28% year by<br />

year, prompting the International<br />

Energy Agency to call it “astonishing.~<br />

That stems from not only<br />

the country’s rapid industrialization,<br />

but also its growing middle<br />

class and their growing needs.<br />

China’s recently announced<br />

12th Five Year Plan for the period<br />

2011–2015 includes a focus upon<br />

increasing energy efficiency, decreasing<br />

carbon intensities, reducing<br />

the share of fossil fuels in the<br />

energy mix, pushing battery cell<br />

technology development, as well<br />

as sustaining economic growth at<br />

an average of 7% p.a. over the<br />

next five years. The Plan contains<br />

an energy consumption target no<br />

more than 2,800 million tones of<br />

oil equivalent p.a. by 2015. This<br />

is a challenging target considering<br />

that it is only 8.5% above 2010<br />

84 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

levels. In the previous five-year<br />

period, China’s energy consumption<br />

actually increased by around<br />

39%. A new carbon intensity reduction<br />

concept is also included;<br />

in terms of CO emissions per unit<br />

of gross domestic product, the<br />

Plan states that the country will<br />

look to reduce this by 17% by<br />

2015 compared to 2010 levels.<br />

Chinese oil demand is expected<br />

to grow the most world-wide<br />

despite of the government efforts<br />

to curb energy use within the<br />

country. Chinese oil demand is<br />

expected to inch up by 5.1% yo-y.<br />

Along with China, the Middle<br />

East, India, Brazil, and the rest<br />

of the non- OECD countries will<br />

boost world oil demand by 1.2<br />

mb/d or 1.4 % in 2012.<br />

Based on the OPEC’s long-term<br />

strategy paper 13 it seems that OPEC<br />

will reduce the production but the<br />

demand will grow up. So, it will inevitably<br />

increase the price of oil.<br />

Oil prices are important for<br />

Georgia because it is an oil importer.<br />

Georgia’s oil consuming is<br />

13,000 bbl/day when its produces<br />

about 984 bbl/day. According<br />

to this data we can make a simple<br />

conclusion – Georgia is a passive<br />

13 Official document of OPEC.<br />

player in the world of oil market<br />

and totally depends on pricing of<br />

oil exporting countries.<br />

CONCLUSION<br />

As it’s already mentioned<br />

OPEC mostly consists from the<br />

member countries with one Arabian<br />

mentality and they are acting as<br />

a non traditional cartel which creates<br />

their main strength. The right<br />

policy, tactical decisions and the<br />

dominant place by the world oil reserves<br />

puts OPEC into the unbreakable<br />

and invincible position. Within<br />

taking decision OPEC based on two<br />

backwards: 1) On the one hand<br />

maximization goal of profit and 2)<br />

take into account national interests<br />

of each member countries. It’s too<br />

complicated to reach balance between<br />

of these two sides. Saudi<br />

Arabia as a core producer and exporter<br />

which has main role to take<br />

the responsibility for itself.<br />

Absence of voting rules and<br />

problems connected with it clearly<br />

revealed in OPEC’s quota system<br />

decision, where OPEC prefers to<br />

“close eye~ to the cheating in order<br />

to avoid the official precedent<br />

of quoting changes.<br />

The global financial crisis of<br />

2008 and the ensuing Great Reces-

sion had enormous implications for<br />

demand projections in both the<br />

short- and medium-term. For example,<br />

the WTO 14 2009 documented<br />

how dramatically GDP forecasts<br />

for 2009 were revised: while<br />

14 World trade Organization.<br />

in July 2008 expected economic<br />

growth in OECD regions for this<br />

year was in the range of 1.3–1.6%,<br />

OECD economies actually shrunk<br />

by an average of 3.4%. This, in<br />

turn, had consequences for oil demand,<br />

which in OECD countries<br />

Scientific View<br />

contracted by 1.4 million barrels<br />

per day (mb/d) in 2009. Moreover,<br />

the WTO 2009 foresaw recovery<br />

from the recession as being only<br />

gradual, and this affected medium<br />

term oil demand prospects, which<br />

reached just 90.2 mb/d in 2015<br />

LAZIKA PROJECT SCARES RUSSIANS<br />

The project of a new resort city, the construction of which begins this year in<br />

Samegrelo Region, Georgia, has scared Russians. Political analysts and media believes<br />

that Russia`s investments made in the development of Olympic Villages in<br />

the seaside resort of Sochi, will be just a waste of funds and time, as Lazika will be<br />

the project which will attract tourists in the region.<br />

The author of an analytical article published on Russianrealty.ru website, Albert<br />

Akopyan says he sees no chances of the development of Sochi; the investments<br />

will not be profitable as the business sector has already confirmed this.<br />

According to experts, teh hotels in Sochi will lack visitors after the Winter<br />

Olympics 2014, as the development of the seaside resort needs not only hotels, but<br />

development of tourism, shopping tours, food and wine tours, which do not work in<br />

Sochi currently.<br />

Akopyan says Lazika will be the second success of Georgian tourism after<br />

Mestia, adding the new airport in Zugdidi grew the prospects of the resort development.<br />

The journalist emphasizes the speed, sort and the low prices of construction<br />

business, which finally is reflected on the price of product. Akopyan says the<br />

president of the neighbor country will organize to bring international<br />

festivals to the new city of Lazika from Europe and the Black Sea states,<br />

which diminishes the prospect of Sochi development as a resort.<br />

85

compared to the 96.1 mb/d expected<br />

in the WTO 2008. This had already<br />

been factored into the WTO<br />

2010, with increased medium<br />

term demand expectations. This<br />

process of re-evaluation has continued<br />

with global economic<br />

growth for 2010 at an average of<br />

4.7%. As a result, the mediumterm<br />

outlook for oil demand reflects<br />

an upward revision from<br />

last year’s assessment. However,<br />

it is worth stressing that risks<br />

appear skewed towards the downside,<br />

especially since the sovereign<br />

debt crisis in some EU countries<br />

seems to be spreading and<br />

the world economy slowing down<br />

further, with potential consequences<br />

for the global financial<br />

system.<br />

OPIC TRANSFERS 5 MLN<br />

TO TELLIANI VALLEY<br />

The first outcome of the meeting between Georgian and<br />

US presidents came a day after the meeting in the Oval Office<br />

of the White House in Washington on Monday - International<br />

governmental organization has transferred the five<br />

million dollar tranche to the account of the Telliani Valley<br />

Company.<br />

The funds will be spent on the popularization and development<br />

of the Georgian wine business, including exploring<br />

new markets for Georgian wine, development of wine<br />

tourism in Georgia, making new products and growth of wine<br />

export.<br />

OPIC - Overseas Private Investment Corporation -is the<br />

U.S. Government’s development finance institution. It mobilizes<br />

private capital to help solve critical world challenges<br />

and in doing so, advances U.S. foreign policy. Because OPIC<br />

works with the U.S. private sector, it helps U.S. businesses<br />

gain footholds in emerging markets catalyzing revenues, jobs<br />

and growth opportunities both at home and abroad. OPIC<br />

achieves its mission by providing investors with financing,<br />

guarantees, political risk insurance, and support for private<br />

equity investment funds.<br />

Negotiations between the OPIC and the Telliani Valley<br />

were underway for the past two years, but the direct transaction<br />

was made only right after the meeting of the two presidents.<br />

U.S. president Barack Obama said at the meeting<br />

with Mikheil Saakashvili on Monday that OPIC was<br />

actively involved in the development of private business<br />

in Georgia.<br />

86 saqarTvelos ekonomika #1<br />

The world economic outlook<br />

has been worsening due to the<br />

challenges facing to the OECD<br />

economies. The forecast for<br />

world GDP next year has been<br />

revised further down reflecting<br />

these uncertainties. Next year’s<br />

oil demand growth is expected to<br />

come from the non-OECD, mainly<br />

China, India, the Middle East<br />

and Latin America. By sector, industrial<br />

– particularly, petrochemical<br />

– and transport sectors<br />

will contribute the most expectations<br />

oil demand growth. US oil<br />

demand is expected to return to<br />

its normal growth mode; however,<br />

it will remain the wild card<br />

for 2012. Furthermore, petroleum<br />

product retail prices will<br />

play a major role in oil demand<br />

next years, mainly in the transport<br />

sector. The EU oil demand<br />

will continue to contact next<br />

years resulting not only from<br />

weak economic growth but also<br />

from maintaining its efficiency<br />

trend. OECD Pacific oil demand<br />

will be in better shape than Europe’s<br />

Japan’s oil consumption<br />

will reflect rebuilding projects.<br />

World oil demand is forecast to<br />

grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2012 to average<br />

89.0 mb/d.<br />

Based on World oil outlook<br />

paper 15 and having considered<br />

the supply and demand perspectives<br />

made by OPEC oil basket<br />

price will be risen to $106 by<br />

2030 16 .<br />

15 WOO official paper of OPEC.<br />

16 For now its 94$.<br />

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