La minaccia NBCR - Istituto Affari Internazionali

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The objective of this study is to evaluate the Italian system of management of CBRN risks
and to propose some lines of intervention that could improve management capabilities in the
event of a CBRN emergency.
A technical description of these events and their effects (Chapter 3., Appendix) is provided
alongside an evaluation of the probability of their happening based on some recent case
studies and initiatives taken by policymakers and stakeholders (Chapter 1.).
Study of the Islamic terrorism factor confirms, also for the Italian case, that there is a
concrete possibility of a non-conventional attack against the civilian population. The risk
level for this threat in Italy is, in fact, medium-high. There are a number of reasons for this,
including Italy’s participation alongside the United States in the war on international
terrorism and a strong concentration of Christian symbols and artwork, emblems of Western
civilisation, history and culture, in the country. In addition, due to Italy’s geographic position
and conformation, it is a thoroughfare for the flow of illegal goods and immigrants towards
Europe, making it a possible operational area, either as a base or in transit, for international
terrorist cells. Finally, there is the presence in Italy of numerous Muslim immigrants, who
provide a recruitment base, as well as large crowds of tourists, who facilitate the presence
and movement of terrorists.
The importance of the CBRN issue can be evaluated both from the “objective” vulnerability
perspective linked to the nature of the threat – paying attention to the terrorism factor – and
from the “subjective” vulnerability perspective of Italy’s system of response – paying
attention to the institutional critical points and the rationalisation of its technical-operational
capabilities.
Outstanding among the first are those linked to the highly destructive potential of these
attacks.
VII