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Overestimation Mortality (%) Mortality (%) 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1990 1994 Overrating 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 The length of stay Since mortality is decreasing, several authors decided to study the length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) or for the whole hospital course as dependent and independent variable. It is observed [Table 8] Overrating 1996 1996 1997 that the intensive care length of stay (ICU- LOS) is increasing between 1991 (mean 7.5 days) to 1999 (mean 8.2 days), because are operated high proportion of old patients and of reoperation and more patients with low ejection fraction. YEARS ICU-LOS (DAYS) AGE - YRS 75 EJECTION FRACTION >49%

12 Giornale Italiano di Cardiologia Pratica It J Practice Cardiol Ottobre 2003 Tab. 9 Thresholds and preponderance of stays in intensive and postoperative lenght of stay. Tab. 10 Destiny of long staying patients in intensive care. (a = personal case history). The proportion of patients who have a prolonged course in ICU is around 5.7-10%, whereas the proportion of patients with prolonged hospital course ranges from 8% to 37%. This gap is not only due to the severity of operated patients’ conditions or to the experience of individual surgeons. It can also be due to the cut-off used to define “pro- longed stay” (from 3 to 10 days in ICU and from 7 to 14 days in a postoperative course, according to single studies) [Table 9]. Nevertheless, the distribution of the ICU and hospital LOS and hospital is very similar in different studies and is highly skewed, characterised by a shift of the mean and median to lower values and by a long tail of less frequent values. AUTHORS INTENSIVE CARE POSTOPERATIVE CARE Threshold % of patients Threshold % of patients Mounsey (14) > 3 days 10 Staat (18) > 7 days 5.7 Tu (16) > 10 days 6.2 Bashour (17) > 10 days 5.4 Pinna Pintor (18) > 5 days 6.1 > 10 days 20 Lazar (19) > 7 days 37 UK (13) > 10 days 22 Weintraub (20) > 10 days 15.2 Kurky (21) > 12 days 23 Lahey (22) > 13 days 10 Ferraris (23) > 14 days 8 Stricker (24A) >7 days 10.6 Hughes M (25 A) >30 days 1.6 Destiny of patients with a prolonged ICU-LOS In some studies, patients forced into a prolonged ICU-LOS and hospital were evaluated to determine their destiny in terms of mortality, quality of life and resources consumption. The survival and quality of life of patients with a prolonged hospitalisation in ICU are particularly low [Table 10]. STAY THRESHOLD % of patients HOSPITAL MORTALITY IN IN INTENSIVE MORTALITY FOLLOW UP CARE % of patients % of patients Ryan (27) > 14 days 3.8 42 - Bashour (17) < 10 days > 10 days 94.6 5.4 1.5 33.1 - 34 at 12 months Holmes (28) > 48 h 7.2 33.3 9.3 at 12 months < 48 h 78.7 0.8 Pinna Pintor (18) > 48 h >5 days 21.3 6.1 12.5 36.6 1.6 at 3 months 25.3 at 3 months >10 days 3.3 50 Stricker (24) < 7 days > 7 days 89.4 10.6 9.8 19.9 ≥ 30 days 40.1 Hughes (25) ≥ 60 days 42.4 ≥90 days 44.4 In Ryan’s study (26) (1997), hospital mortality is 42% for patients (3.8% of the whole popu- lation) who remained in ICU for more than 14 days. In Bashour’s study (17) (2000), the ho-

Overestimation<br />

Mortality (%)<br />

Mortality (%)<br />

4<br />

3,5<br />

3<br />

2,5<br />

2<br />

5<br />

4,5<br />

4<br />

3,5<br />

3<br />

2,5<br />

2<br />

1990<br />

1994<br />

Overrat<strong>in</strong>g<br />

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997<br />

The length of stay<br />

S<strong>in</strong>ce mortality is decreas<strong>in</strong>g, several authors<br />

decided to study the length of stay <strong>in</strong><br />

the <strong>in</strong>tensive care unit (ICU) or for the whole<br />

hospital course as dependent and <strong>in</strong>dependent<br />

variable. It is observed [Table 8]<br />

Overrat<strong>in</strong>g<br />

1996 1996 1997<br />

that the <strong>in</strong>tensive care length of stay (ICU-<br />

LOS) is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g between 1991 (mean 7.5<br />

days) to 1999 (mean 8.2 days), because are<br />

operated high proportion of old patients<br />

and of reoperation and more patients with<br />

low ejection fraction.<br />

YEARS<br />

ICU-LOS<br />

(DAYS)<br />

AGE - YRS<br />

75<br />

EJECTION FRACTION<br />

>49%

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