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6<br />
Forum virtuale su:<br />
Una nuova proposta strategica per ridurre<br />
la patologia cardiovascolare dell'80%<br />
Virtual forum:<br />
A strategy to reduce cardiovascular disease<br />
by more than 80%<br />
A. Lotto, C. Fernandez<br />
Nel Giugno di quest'anno sul British Medical Journal è stato pubblicato un articolo<br />
di N J Wald e MR Law dal titolo: "A strategy to reduce cardiovascular disease by<br />
more than 80%" (1). Le referenze dei due Autori sono <strong>in</strong>discutib<strong>il</strong>i e possono essere<br />
qui s<strong>in</strong>tetizzate: entrambi lavorano presso <strong>il</strong> Department of Environmental and<br />
Preventive Medic<strong>in</strong>e, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medic<strong>in</strong>e, Barts and the London,<br />
Queen Mary's School of Medic<strong>in</strong>e and Dentistry, University of London, London<br />
EC1M 6BQ.<br />
Gli obiettivi, <strong>il</strong> disegno, l'outcome ed i risultati, nonché le conclusioni possiamo trasferirle<br />
direttamente dal testo orig<strong>in</strong>ale:<br />
Objectives. To determ<strong>in</strong>e the comb<strong>in</strong>ation of drugs and vitam<strong>in</strong>s, and their doses,<br />
for use <strong>in</strong> a s<strong>in</strong>gle da<strong>il</strong>y p<strong>il</strong>l to achieve a large effect <strong>in</strong> prevent<strong>in</strong>g cardiovascular<br />
disease with m<strong>in</strong>imal adverse effects. The strategy was to simultaneously<br />
reduce four cardiovascular risk factors (low density lipoprote<strong>in</strong> cholesterol,<br />
blood pressure, serum homocyste<strong>in</strong>e, and platelet function) regardless of<br />
pretreatment levels.<br />
Design. We quantified the efficacy and adverse effects of the proposed formulation<br />
from published meta-analyses of randomised trials and cohort studies and a metaanalysis<br />
of 15 trials of low dose (50-125 mg/day) aspir<strong>in</strong>.<br />
Outcome measures. Proportional reduction <strong>in</strong> ischaemic heart disease (IHD)<br />
events and strokes; life years ga<strong>in</strong>ed; and prevalence of adverse effects.<br />
Results. The formulation which met our objectives was: a stat<strong>in</strong> (for example,<br />
atorvastat<strong>in</strong> (da<strong>il</strong>y dose 10 mg) or simvastat<strong>in</strong> (40 mg)); three blood pressure lower<strong>in</strong>g<br />
drugs (for example, a thiazide, a ßblocker, and an angiotens<strong>in</strong> convert<strong>in</strong>g<br />
enzyme <strong>in</strong>hibitor), each at half standard dose; folic acid (0.8 mg); and aspir<strong>in</strong> (75<br />
mg). We estimate that the comb<strong>in</strong>ation (which we call the Polyp<strong>il</strong>l) reduces IHD<br />
events by 88% (95% confidence <strong>in</strong>terval 84% to 91%) and stroke by 80% (71%<br />
to 87%). One third of people tak<strong>in</strong>g this p<strong>il</strong>l from age 55 would benefit, ga<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
on average about 11 years of life free from an IHD event or stroke. Summ<strong>in</strong>g<br />
the adverse effects of the components observed <strong>in</strong> randomised trials shows that<br />
the Polyp<strong>il</strong>l would cause symptoms <strong>in</strong> 8-15% of people (depend<strong>in</strong>g on the precise<br />
formulation).<br />
Conclusion. The Polyp<strong>il</strong>l strategy could largely prevent heart attacks and stroke if<br />
taken by everyone aged 55 and older and everyone with exist<strong>in</strong>g cardiovascular<br />
disease. It would be acceptably safe and with widespread use would have a greater<br />
impact on the prevention of disease <strong>in</strong> the Western world than any other s<strong>in</strong>gle <strong>in</strong>tervention.