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CORRIGE SERIES CHRONOLOGIQUES - Université Paris 8

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2 <strong>CORRIGE</strong> <strong>SERIES</strong> <strong>CHRONOLOGIQUES</strong><br />

II <strong>CORRIGE</strong><br />

1. Modèle Additif<br />

Prévision : par exemple donnons une prévision pour mars 2006 ; nous devons calculer by 27 =<br />

by 27 = 0:0879 27 + 16:5557 1:01 ' 13:17<br />

0:0879 27 + 16:5557 + S 3 ; soit<br />

2 AES

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