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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-:Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Özeti . Baghdad's strategy.is said to rely ..on delay, then' streetbattles ao N ~.- By Michael R. Gordon 'The New York TImes ty forces inside Baghdad, according to intelligence reports. This is one. of sev. eral signs.that have led U.S. officials to WASHINGTON: . Iraq's strategy to conclude that Iraq will try to use poison thwart a U.S.-led attack calls for slow- gas orgerm weapons against the p.S. ing U.S. troops' advance toward Bàgh- and àllied forces.. .. . dad and then confronting them with the American intelligence agencies have prospect of a bloody street battle in the 11soconcluded that it is likely that Iraq Iraqi capital, according to O.S. intelli- will try to strike Israel with Scud misgence. . . siles, weapons that officials said could To impede U.S.and allied forces, Sad- be armed with p.oison gas or germ wardam Hussein's administration has de- . heads. . veloped plans to blow.up dams, destroy ~We have indications that their goal • . bridges and ignite oil. fields, U.S. De- is to delay, impede and deny U.S. forces, . fense Department officials say. They a clear and quick victory," a defense of- . say Iraq mayalso deny foOd to Iraqi ci- ficial said. "The basic strategy can be .. vilians in the southern parts of the summed up as disperse,. absorb and country to try to create a crisis that move to militaryoperations in urban would saddle advancing allied forces . terrain." with the responsibility of caring for As the United States, Britain, Ausmillions of desperate Iraqi civilians. tralia and other members of President. Once U.S. and allied forces approach George W. Bush's "coalition of the will- Baghdad, they will encounter two de- ing" prepare for militaryaction to fensive rings of elite Republican Guard topple Saddam, U.S.intelligence is workforces, the U.S.officials say.Many of the ing hard to figure out Iraq's intentions. Republican Guard forces are now dis- U.S.officials say Iraq's deployments and . persed, a move that is intended to help . even statements by Saddam provide an them survive the air strikes that will indication of Baghdad's strategy. open the allied campaign. But as allied Senior U.S. military officials say they ground forces approach Baghdad, the are aware of Iraq's options but confi- Iraqis are expected to rush to fighting dent of achieving a decisive victory and positions that have been stocked with avoiding a prolonged war. Allied ammunition and supplies. . ground forces are far better trained and Some Republican Guard units are equipped than Iraqi troops, and allied equipped with chemical protective air forces already command the skies. gear, .!lS are Special Republican Guard . The Iraqi Army is about a third of its units and some intelli~ence and securi- size during the Gulf War of1991. There. : are mounting indications Utat the morale within Iraq's regular army and even some of the Republican Guar4foh:es is low..Saddamfaces multiple threats: one from the U.S.-led invasion force and an. other from a restive Shiite population .and perhaps some elements of his armed forces that would rather try a coup than see the United States invade and occupy the country. ~ the end of the day, if called on, : win we will," General Tommy Franks, . the head of the U.S. Central Command, said in an interview . Iraq; however, is striving to take a . weak hand and make the best of it. Its objective is much different than in the 1991 conflict. During that war, Iraq's goal was to hold on to Kuwait, and it positioned the bulk of its ground forces far . from its capitaL But this time, Saddam has one overriding goal: survival. His aim seems to . . be to force the Bush administration to.. • ek a political compromise that stops short of ending his administration by spurring fears of extensive allied casualties, dragging out the war and raising concern around the world over the fate ofIraqi civilians. "There is no victory option for Iraq," said General Joseph Hoar, a retired Marine and former chief of the U.S. Central Command. "The question for Iraq is how to prolong the conflict. For Saddam, the goal is to inflict casualties and allow the Arab news networks to Ahmad AI-Rubaye/Agence France-Presse Iraqi soldiers digging trenches in TIkrit, 150kilometers north of Baghdad. u.s. intelligence says in the event of war, the Iraqis will try to slow allied forces by destroying brldg~ and igniting oil fields, but then rush to positions to defend Baghdad. 56
Revue de Presse-Pres,s Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Özeti " -) broadcast pictures of civilians dying., difficult for American forces to cross He will try to gather international sUP-' the rivér, slowing an offensive, U.S. offiport and try to find a place in history."cials said. . , , A U.S. defense official said: "What, Iraq's 11thInfantry Division has beèiï lessons have they learned from the.last stationed near the city of Nasiriya, ,war? They have learried that the posses- where it can try to put down a Shiite resion ofw.eapons of mass destruction is a bellion in the city and guard the crossforce ,multiplier even if they are not ing points over the river. Iraq has also used.' ~d they have learned that they , moved som~ light infantry and artillery ,shguld not deploy forces out in the open south to tlieBasra area. but disperse them and then move into "If hostilities begin, Saddam is likely urb8'n terrain and intermingle with the to employ a 'scorched earth' strategy, civHian population.", destroying food, transportation, energy , Drawing on its experience during the and other infrastructures, attempting to Gulf War, Iraq is not mounting a major create a humanitarian disaster signifidef,nse of its bor4ers. But it is taking 'cant enough to stop a military adseYéral steps to try to bog down U.S.and vance," Vice Admiral Lowell Jacoby, the allied forces as they try to advance to director of the Defense Intelligence 'Baghdad. American defense officials Agency, advised Congre~~ last week. •saidIraq had shipped rail cars full of Jacoby said tl).e Iraqis Would try to ,aminunition and demolition equipment blame American forces for the damage. ' ,toits oil fields. That raised concerns that Iraq is also positioning surface-toiraq planned to blow them up to hamper surface missiles. Iraq has placed Al the invasion and portray it as an eco- Samoud missiles north and west of nomic and environmental catastrophe. Baghdad. U.S. intelligence says the mis- :Iraq has also considered plans to de- sile can travel much farther than the stroy dams and flood the Eup!1rates 14S-kilometer (90-mile) range that is al- •River, a move that çould make it 'more lowed bv the United Nations. Iraq has also placed Ababil-SO missiles, Ababil.' 100 missiles and Soviet-designed Frog rockets north of the capital. , American defense officials say the missiles have been put in place both to ,strengthen Iraq's defenses in the north and to threaten population centers like' Kirkuk and Mosul if they fall into the hands of U.S. or Kurdish forces. To' threaten Kuwait and U.S. forces there, Iraq has also deployed' mobile missile systems in the south near Basra. American intelligence has reported that Saddam has authorized his commanders to use chemical and perhaps biological weapons. . ' It is difficult for intelligence exPerts to determine if the munitions being sent to Iraqi forces have chemical or conventional warheads. But U.S. intelligence' has noted that protective gear against chemical attack has been given to Special' Republican Guard forces as well as intelligence and security personnel charged with defending Baghdad and other cities. ,,It has been given to some Republican Guard units outside Baghdad as well. America and Europe • By David L. Phillips Building peace in Iraq ATHENS What started as a trans-Atlantic tiff has become a full-blown diplomatic crisis over Iraq. Instead of continuing to throw barbs at one an- , other, the United States and Europe should recognize that no one wants war. IfSaddam Hussein fails to cooperate with the United Nations weapons inspectors and, as a result, the United States leads an international coalition to disarm his regime, humanitarian action and post-conflict peace-building would provide an opportunity for improving international cooperation. , UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has endorsed contingency planning as necessary and "prudent." But so far the , European Union has been reluctant to get involved. It sees any planning as a tacit endorsement of militaryaction. , Visiting Athens, I have been discussiI}.gIraq with leading ,,Greek think tank representatives, scholars and journalists. Greek elites are much like their counterparts across Europe; public opinion is solidly in favor of letting the UN ,process run its course. Europeans mostly reject preemptive action, as evidenced by the weekend's large anti-war , demonStrations. , Many peace protestors recognize, however, that if Iraq continues its non-cooperation witli the United Nations, militaryaction may ultimately be necessary. They worry about the 2.2 million Iraqis who the UN estimates could be displaced by conflict. - ' , Europeans také pride in their tradition of providing humanitarian assistance and helping war-tom societies. The ' European Stabilization and Association Process is regarded as a road map for P
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