.Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-:Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Özeti .
Baghdad's strategy.is said to rely
..on delay, then' streetbattles
ao
N
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By Michael R. Gordon
'The New York TImes
ty forces inside Baghdad, according to
intelligence reports. This is one. of sev.
eral signs.that have led U.S. officials to
WASHINGTON: . Iraq's strategy to conclude that Iraq will try to use poison
thwart a U.S.-led attack calls for slow- gas orgerm weapons against the p.S.
ing U.S. troops' advance toward Bàgh- and àllied forces.. .. .
dad and then confronting them with the American intelligence agencies have
prospect of a bloody street battle in the 11soconcluded that it is likely that Iraq
Iraqi capital, according to O.S. intelli- will try to strike Israel with Scud misgence.
. . siles, weapons that officials said could
To impede U.S.and allied forces, Sad- be armed with p.oison gas or germ wardam
Hussein's administration has de- . heads. .
veloped plans to blow.up dams, destroy ~We have indications that their goal •
. bridges and ignite oil. fields, U.S. De- is to delay, impede and deny U.S. forces, .
fense Department officials say. They a clear and quick victory," a defense of- .
say Iraq mayalso deny foOd to Iraqi ci- ficial said. "The basic strategy can be ..
vilians in the southern parts of the summed up as disperse,. absorb and
country to try to create a crisis that move to militaryoperations in urban
would saddle advancing allied forces . terrain."
with the responsibility of caring for As the United States, Britain, Ausmillions
of desperate Iraqi civilians. tralia and other members of President.
Once U.S. and allied forces approach George W. Bush's "coalition of the will-
Baghdad, they will encounter two de- ing" prepare for militaryaction to
fensive rings of elite Republican Guard topple Saddam, U.S.intelligence is workforces,
the U.S.officials say.Many of the ing hard to figure out Iraq's intentions.
Republican Guard forces are now dis- U.S.officials say Iraq's deployments and
. persed, a move that is intended to help . even statements by Saddam provide an
them survive the air strikes that will indication of Baghdad's strategy.
open the allied campaign. But as allied Senior U.S. military officials say they
ground forces approach Baghdad, the are aware of Iraq's options but confi-
Iraqis are expected to rush to fighting dent of achieving a decisive victory and
positions that have been stocked with avoiding a prolonged war. Allied
ammunition and supplies. . ground forces are far better trained and
Some Republican Guard units are equipped than Iraqi troops, and allied
equipped with chemical protective air forces already command the skies.
gear, .!lS are Special Republican Guard . The Iraqi Army is about a third of its
units and some intelli~ence and securi- size during the Gulf War of1991. There.
: are mounting indications Utat the morale
within Iraq's regular army and even
some of the Republican Guar4foh:es is
low..Saddamfaces multiple threats: one
from the U.S.-led invasion force and an.
other from a restive Shiite population
.and perhaps some elements of his
armed forces that would rather try a
coup than see the United States invade
and occupy the country.
~ the end of the day, if called on,
: win we will," General Tommy Franks,
. the head of the U.S. Central Command,
said in an interview .
Iraq; however, is striving to take a .
weak hand and make the best of it. Its
objective is much different than in the
1991 conflict. During that war, Iraq's
goal was to hold on to Kuwait, and it positioned
the bulk of its ground forces far .
from its capitaL
But this time, Saddam has one overriding
goal: survival. His aim seems to .
. be to force the Bush administration to..
• ek a political compromise that stops
short of ending his administration by
spurring fears of extensive allied casualties,
dragging out the war and raising
concern around the world over the fate
ofIraqi civilians.
"There is no victory option for Iraq,"
said General Joseph Hoar, a retired
Marine and former chief of the U.S.
Central Command. "The question for
Iraq is how to prolong the conflict. For
Saddam, the goal is to inflict casualties
and allow the Arab news networks to
Ahmad AI-Rubaye/Agence
France-Presse
Iraqi soldiers digging trenches in TIkrit, 150kilometers north of Baghdad. u.s. intelligence says in the event of war, the Iraqis
will try to slow allied forces by destroying brldg~ and igniting oil fields, but then rush to positions to defend Baghdad.
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