.Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Özeti
Iraqi oppos;non groups
Hi, leave it to us
SULAYMANIYAH
Iraq's opposition is dismayed at plans
for an American occupation of Iraq
to independence. The lUrks also say they
will allow, subject to parliament's ratification,
tens of thousands of American
troops to use lUrkey as the jumping-off
point for a southwards thrust against Iraq.
The Iraqi opposition dètects the particular
imprint of Saudi Arabia, a Sunni
monarchy with a Shia minority, on Mr
Khalilzad's support for a very staggered
transition to democracy. Saudi Arabia is at
least as keen as America is to limit the
influence of the Iran-backed Supreme
Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq
(SC IR!), the biggest Shia opposition group.
. WHEN Iraq's opposition groups-the
six that enjoy American support-
. met in London at the end of last year, they
had fondhopes that George Bush would
anoint them to be Saddam Hussèin's suc- Unsupervised democracy, they both fear,
. cessors. They are now expressing dismay, might well allow this group to ride to
and a sense of betrayal, at having this belief
corrected. After a meeting in lUrkey SCIRI to keep its Iranian-armed standing
power. As a first step, America has told the
last week between three of the six groups force away from the fighting.
and Zalmay Khalilzad, the American president's
envoy, they learnt that, in the event
of Mr Hussein's faU,America intended to
turn Iraq over to an American military governor
for a year or so, and to put American
Keep out of Kirkuk
The Kurds, like the SCIRI, have been told to
stay put. One reason is that the Americans
are determined to reach the oil-rich city of
officers in the main ministries. . Kirkuk, which the Kurds briefly held after
Ahmad Chalabi, an opposition leader the 1991Gulf war, before anyone else can
who did not attend the meeting with Mr take control of the city and its wealth,
Khalilzad-he says he was invited late in Although the opposition groups have
the day-rages at what he caUs America's forsworn any desire to set up a government-in-exile,
they had been hoping to use
unworkable plan. The best, he says, that
opposition luminaries can hope for is a second conference, with Mr Khalilzad in
membership of an advisory council to be attendance, to develop their ideas for a
chosen by the military governor, and, after transitional administration. They. now
about a year, election to a constitutiondrafting
body. In 'the meantime, he says, meeting, scheduled for mid:February in
blame America for delays in holding this
Mr Khalilzad envisages a temporary constitution,
drafted by a judicial council of trying to foist his appointees on to the
Iraqi Kurdistan, and accuse Mr Khalilzad
whose members will be appointed by the secretariat that will supervise the conference.
Their own democratic credentials
Americans. Under these circumstances,
say Mr Chalabi's supporters, Iraqis will regard
America as an occupying force. groups now increas~ngly question the sin-
may be pretty dubious, but the opposition
Iraq's Kurds are no less disappointed, cerity behind Ameri,ca's stated desire to
even if they express themselves more diplomatically.
shine a beacon of democracy into their be-
Their autonomous northern nighted corner .•
zone is now administered by the two main
Kurdish groups, the PUR and the RDP. In
SulaymaniyiÙ1, the PUR capital, officials
say that Mr Khalilzad has turned his back
on the political statement that emerged
from the London cooference, a statement
that America had appeared to endorse.
In this document, the six groups conferred
on themselves a central role "in aU
stages of the expected process of change".
They firmly rejected "occupation, foreign
or local military rule, external trusteeship
or regional intervention". And they committed
themselves to a federal structure
that would, in effect, legalise the Kurds' de
facto autonomy from Baghdad.
In deference to his lUrkish hosts, who
fear that Iraqi federalism could galvanise
their own restless Kurds, Mr Khalilzad refused
to commit himself to a federal Iraq.
To the alarm of the Kurds, he spoke of a
possible lUrkish military incursion, ostensibly
to provide humanitarian aid, but
probably to dissuade the Kurds from expanding
their territory, and block moves Your plan's no good, says Chalabi
'turkey and,its Kurds
Backto
bloodshed?
ISTANBUL
As war drums roll nearby, will violence
between 1\1rks and Kurds resume?
l'I THATEVERhas happened to Abdul-
, VV lah Ocalan, the Kurdish rebelleader
who was captured in 1999 and has been
held in a Turkish island prison for the past
three years? His lawyèrs and family say
they have been out of touch for more than
Ocalan, alive but alone,
11 weeks. Why so? One possibility is that'
his isolation could presage a resumption
of fighting between Turks and Kurds.
One of Mr Ocalan's lawyers says that
he and his colleagues have been denied access
to the Kurdish leader since November
27th, the day before lUrkey's new government,
led by the conservative Justice and
Development party, won the parliamentary
vote of confidence that secured its
place in power. Mr Ocalan's disciples in
his separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party,
better known as the PKK, have said that his
isoJation must end by February 15th or
their guerrillas may resume their campaign
of violence not just in Turkey's predominantly
Kurdish south-eastern provinces
but across the entire country. Several
hundred Kurdshave been arrested for protesting
against Mr Ocalan's plight.
Since his capture, a rebel ceasefire hàs
largely held. But sporadic clashes have re- .
cently begun to occur. In the worst incident,
seven lUrkish soldiers and 12 rebels
were killed last month in Lice,in the country's
south-east. Sensing that Iraq may be
attacked soon, some Kurds may think they
have a chance to benefit from the chaos
that may ensue. And lUrkey's generals
may think they should take pre-emptive
action against Kurds preparing to rise up.
As for Mr Ocalan, the Thrkish authori-
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