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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Özeti ARABS AND DEMOCRACY 'Iraq will cause a changein the region and make America's enemIes • desperate' the Middle, East, including "friendly regimes" such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, has helped foster the extremism , that now threatens US national secu. rity. Ms Cheney's de~ent is at the ,crux of efforts within the US adminis. tration to devise a new approach wit~ the Arab world. The reverberations of that policy debate can be felt in the Middle East itself, where scepticism of US motives runs high and political and business elites grow increasingly wor. ried about their survival. .' Not that Ms Cheney gives much' clue , to the potentially far-reaching under. taking under consideration. "It's become clear that we must broaden our approach to the region," she says, guardedly. "We have to work.with part- M o C'l IQ- By the sound of it, Elizabeth , Cheney's job is little different from thework American diplomats have been doing for decades in many partS of the world. From unassuming offices in the Statè Department in Washington, she oversees a budget of $SOmdevoted to such activities as training politicians in .parliamentary democracy and teaching women how to participate in election campaigns. Yet ,the .work asaigned.to Ma Cheney, a deputy US assistant undersecretary of utate and daughter of the vice. president, is hardly diplomacy as usùaI. The foeusor her efforts is coun. , tries in the Arab world. Her newly cre. ' , .ated; post is at the forefront of US ,efforts. to instigate political reform among' the,:authoritarian regimes long regarded by Washington as allies. . September 11 2001opened American eyes to a long-overlooked reality: that Some in Washington see the overthrow of Saddam Hussein as th~ key to bringing democracy to the Middle East; others fear the instability that could.follow. Roula Khalaf reports Ders (there] to address critical issues 01 jobs. education and expanded political period; democracy may not ftdürlsh in participation for all the people 01 the Middle East." , . Iraq. they argue, as rapidly as some hope. The State Department coyly relers to her work, as the Middle East partner. To maintain this difficult balance, the realists seek to reassure Arab ship initiative. Although MBCheney r.egimes that the change 01 policy has been in place for a year, it was only last month that Colin Powell, sec. envisaged is a co-operativeprocess that will be neither abrupt nor brutal. retary o,f state, unveiled the pro. Thus far, the State I)epartment, gramme in a carefully crafted speech to the Heritage Foundation, a Washington through MBCheney'soffiee, has pre. ferred to approach the issue on a small ' think.tank. Pledging that the US wQuld give scale. The programmes it sponsors are limited in scope, reaching only a frac. "sustained and energetic attention" to economic, political and educational tion of the Arab population. Some in Washington want to go faster; there reform, Mr Powell said: "The spread of are requests to Congress for an democracy and free markets. fuelled by increase in funding. "We've got to the wonders of the technological revo- make this a priority of the US àdminis. lution, has created a dynamo that can tration, with a huge aid programme, generate prosperity and human and put resources at the disposal of well.being on an unprecedented scale. people trying to create change," says a But this revolution has left much of the Middle East behind. Too many former official who supports the State Department's approach. people there lack the very political and By contrast, the hawkish neo. economic freedom, empowerment of women and modern education they conservatives, influential at the Penta- gon and the White House. have the need to prosper in the 21st century," advantage of promoting a simple mes- A few weeks earlier, Richard Haas, sage. They envisage using America's director of policy planning at the State military might to topple regimes. Department, had delivered a blunter For them, much depends on the evomessage. ,By allowing a "democratic lution of the Iraq crisis. They expect a exception" to exist in the Muslim change of regime in Baghdad - an out. world, he said, the US had missed an opportunity. "It is not in our interest -' come they ~trongly advocate - to lead to the creation of a democratic governor that of the people living in the Mus-' ment. That development, combined lim world - for the US to continue this with the flexing of American muscle, exception." On that much, there is broad agreewill send powerful warnings to other regimes, Iran and Syria in particular, ment in Washington. The differences of two totalitarian regimes seen as opinion centre on how Arab democrati. sation should be brought about; on incapable within. of peaceful reform from how quickly and how far the process The introduction of democracy in should go. At heart, says one official,it. Iraq will also add to pressure on less is a "philosophical fight" over the aims threatening regimes, such as Egypt's, and reach of US foreign policy. producing an acceleration of reforms "The most generic version of the, there, the hawks say. Development of vision of the neo.conservatives and Iraq's oil resources will reduce US that of the Powell camp is the same. dependence on Saudi Arabia, the coun- The critical difference is howyou get try that produced most of the Septemtl1e.re," says a former US official. "At ber 11 hijackers and one that many in best ;,ne nee-conservatives' approach is Washington see as in the most urgent uninformed and naive and at worst it's need of reform. The ruling Al Saud dimgerous - they want to wage a series family would either have to change its of. wars. But they are advancing a ways or be replaced, possibly by coherent strategy for dealing with the younger, reform.minded members of h hi Th the family. world throug t at perspect ve. e "September 11 is the overflow of the other camp, that of Powell, is still not putting forward a coherent st.rategy." region's upheaval, which expressed itself in anti.Americanism," insists one For the so-called "realists" at the hawkish official. "It was the result of ,State Department, the US needs to an unholy alliance between al.Qaeda maintain the suppott of governments in the region in the. war on terror and ' and those who were ostensibly our J._lMM8 fi 'bl mili allies, [such as] Saudi Arabia," to secure .ug-....- or a poSSl e . "Redrawing of the Middle East is .taly cam~ign ~t Iraq. i th f th ,They.envisage the promotion of polit- about redraw ng e nature 0 e ical reform in the region as part of a region, not the map. Iraq w1ll cause a broader engagement' that includes US fundamental change in the region and participation ina comprehensive' make our enemies more desperate. If Middle East peace Sl!ttlement.They are . we stay iD Iraq and [do] not deal with also more amenable to replacing Sad. issues of Syria and Iran, they'll kill us dam Hussein with Il military general or and outmanoeuvre us. Our camp says a senior official from the ruling Ba'ath we should quickly deal with the probparty, at least during ,a transition lem of Iran, that something needs to be 2
Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê~Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Özeti done. !fIrari and, Ii'aq are :taken care'ofi", Syria' b,ecomE!8',n9thiIig;Jh.~/"gi~e~ ' can't continue,to Survive. " "'. ;,.' , i ": Such 'astrategy,is',certain'to, be, I1lghlydes~biliSing;' b,ut,the up~eavaJ. .liBys'DaniellePle~~a .viceopreside,nt ~t the American EnterpriSe Irist1tJ1tg,. a, Conservative ihiilk-tai:!k." would be. no bad thing. :"Peoplep,y, wesl10uld"Dot gO to War With.Ira~, .'not,to ,upset the. statusqùo in the MiddleE~t. But 10Qk, 'at the status quoI", :,' "','. ", ,: , eertairily, ,the Arab hUJIÜmde~eloJ;l: ment repOrt'.published las,t'sWDJJ1erby the' UnitEKl'Nations'Devèlopment ~~ gramlne" ,paintsa sorry, picture. MOl'è. than half thePOPulation,in theregion is under 18Wt young,people have ne,i-, ther jobs 'norb8sic~doms.'Growth in,per çapita inco~e C?verthe p~t two, decades' has been' the'lowest m the world,outside; sull:Saharan Africa. The, entiréArab world ~lates a mere 300, books aiinuâlly: ,The region ;must , remove tfueèdeficits, the report ~es, .;;.in ti'eèdom; wOmen's empowenpent, l:lndktlo,wledg8-:' .if it is ,to have__a., 'chance'of development. ,.' " , , Yet whiléthe päwks~argutnents,are often construqted to suggest tha~ the, US is' simply trying to help ordinary, Arabs realise these aSpirations, the1r'i views reflect ideas often expressed by, the Israeli right whig. Accord~ng !o that analysis, a US-friendly regune' m Iraq,and ~dom-enjo~,~bs wp~d ;pay :less ,àttentiontô~~e;£,Pale~ Cause 'abandon violence,aa;:ame{lnS,of leg.:ih~ir lapdail.~ ;*ome;:.m~~ .amenabie to a peàceagrs,m:ent:;,baSed 'on1sraell tèrms. The regional,pey/erSoo:, Egypt, Saiidi' J\rabia, SYJi.a,Iraï( ilnd Iran .:.' would be so well.kened that Israel' would have,'8' much stronger hand' inimp6sing a se~tle~ent. ' ; ,':~ itntit abnolinal)fQt soIlle,300m Arabs to care moreabo\l~:theplight of. ,thePal~' tIuin aooût their, owr; ,pligb,t;,~ ~hèil own oountni?':)Jlks,Ms PietIta:.of ,the AEI; "The ~ont\ yo1.1 ~"awây the oonstituenèy'forPales-, tinh,~\,i~rt~rièm, and, fO? 'i.ntere~t . peolltê~i::~~lXlls, newspapers, ~~s and mayoi's;"peopP.alle~~~:~~Ch l~~s interestéd '~;'~e ,e"~"""""'" . 'W' .' . . ,hile the hawks see , regtnie change as the key to resolving other prob- " 'lems, some close to' the State Departmenfs thinking worry about another, broader obstacle to the US's ambitions: the inclination of -Arabs to think the worst of Washing- , ton'sinténtiQDs and to regard the prl>mulg~tt~Ii ,of,AJDeriçan vall,les, as a fOrInofnec-imperiallilm. ' , Many in the Middle,East blame the US for supporting the regimes that, oppres$ them. They are suspicious of joining, hands, with, an administration that strongly supports. Israel and, by extension, its occupation of Palestinian lands. This, and the luifdline American starice on Iraq, leads many in the' region to 'question the US's commitment to their liberation. The hawks' focus on the need to suppress .states suspecte~o'. ~upporting .or -tireed1tig t~1TorisJn~,underestimating the extent tO'which,popular resent-. ment provides fertile ground for the recruitment of terrorists. "Even if you ,get- to COW. thé ,regimes.in Damascus arid'Tehran by invading Iraq, terrorists may not, be cowéd but strengthened," says philip Gordon-of the Broo~ngs Institution: ,"You can't deter, nondeterrable terrorists. If we come out as an invading' power [in Iraq], that will be the n:iain concern." . Some US officials with experience in the MiddleEast admlt that Washington is m.plaœd;'on its- own,.topersuade others of its nObleintentions. For. this reason, the State. Departmen~ is trying to present its plans as an international.' effort by enlisting European and other ,allies. But this approach is likely to be tèsted 'if the regimes that the US most needs in the war on terror, or in a campaign 1n Iraq, ai-é. the ones that. are put under-pressure to reform. Washmg. ton's .tàlkof demoCfficy.sits oddly. for èXample;'with its efforts to increase. 'èo-opera:tionwith intelligence agencies in countries such 'as Egypt, Syriaand Algeria - institutions that regularly abuse hUman rights. ., . . , The' US!s relaticjnship with Saudi Arabiabest l11ùstràtes thedUemma. Because of 8Uspectëd links with terrorism; the. Saudi rêgün&.atg.Uablyl'lÜses most conéei'n in W~b.1ngton.Yet. the. US' adniinistration,' also"looks:to. the Saudis; the piVotaimember;of thè~' 'oil' cartèl, to stabill.Seen,!rgy'priCl!s.1n the event of another',Giïtt:wài: ana prl>-' vIde acœsido its mmtary"'base$.,' . "It's, il ,real world and in the rè8l world ;YOUcan't work ,on an priorities at. oncii '.,but''you ' clin!t ':ignore, any 'either," S/llYS t;>neStatè.OèPart~entoffi- 'cial. The Saudis, he says; "have to be very clear ori iSsues thät ',are important to lis bqt we also have tö puthuman rights .and. democracy in one column and, inthe 'Other; Saudi 'Arabia's position in. t'liE!' rejpon, .on.,the Ara\,-Israel1 peace proëess, the 611.and the military issue."', , Over the longer term, both the hawkish and the realist approach to the Middle East face uncertain results. From Egypt to Morocco, Islamist groups today form the only organised opposition to governments. In' a climate of radicalisation, existing regimes are perhaps most likely to be replaced by extremist rulers. For this reason, many in the Middle East sl,lspect that Washington's real vision is to replace regimes that no longer adequately serve its interests with friendlier governments - regardless of those new rulers' commitment to democracy. But if short-term realpolitik wére to sweep the talk of US-led democratisation aside, America might come to regret the missed opportunity. just a,s many in Washington now deplore support for the Saudi regime. "The US has to find a way to encourage and assist moderate voices of reform and tolerance by taking away the sources, of anger that fuel support for radicals," says analyst Peter Singer in a paper recently published by the Brookings Institution, a Washington think-tank. "At the same time, the difficulty is that the US must operate against terrorist forces, within an ongoing war that is also internal to Islam. How we ulthnately resolve these dilemmas may well determine oUr underlying relations with the Muslim world for generations to come." 3
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