.Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

,
Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa"'-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Özeti
The real meaning of Iraq
'The debate over Iraq has ex- ,one that Iïäs twice invaded its neighbors
hausted everybody. Many without provocation and that has used
people now think an American chemical weapons both on its military
invasion is inevitable; many, foes and some of its own restive people.
more are desperate just to get whatever North Koreamay be a greater
ha Th ' th. 1 danger, but North Korea has not been
appens over. ere s no mg ess sat- told by the United Nat1'ons to d1'sarm
isfymg than calling for still more discussion.
But more, discussion is the and stay disa,rmed. And, although the '
only road that will get the world to the Bu~h administration is careful to steer
right outcome - concerted effort by a clear of this argument, the very fact
wide coalition of nations to force Sad-, that North Korea hasthe international '
dam Hussein to give up his Weapons of. community in a bind is a cautionary
mass destruction. We need another de- tale for making sure that no other desbate,
another struggle to make this the potic governments run by irrational
United Nations'leadership moment. adventurers get hold of nuclear arms.
Right now, things don't look prom- Many non-Americans, and large
ising for those ofus who believe this is numbers of Americans, wonder whetha
war worth waging, but only with er this administration is capable of disbroad
international support. The passjonate judgment as it relentlessly
United States has an invasion force in ': pushes for war. All too often, U.S. offiplace,
and the military's schedule clals have undermined their own case
seems to demand that it attack within a by demonstrating reckless enthusiasm
few weeks before spring brings on for a brawl, denigrating allies who fail
withering desert heat. Washington has to fall in line or overstating their case
some support among other nations, but' against Iraq, particularly when it comes
few have much to offer in the way of to a link between Saddam Hussein and
troops or financial support.
' Al Qaeda. But to his credit, President
Saddam Hussein, meanwhile, has' Bush worked hard to achieve the unanbeen
skillful at providing the pretense imous support of the Security Council
of progress to international inspectors for Resolution 1441, and more broadly
without seriously cooperating. Iraq has to make his case before the United Nadrawn
the United Nations into a game tions and the world. This may be an adof
find the handkerchief, in which the; ministration intent on making war, but
burden is on the inspectors to sniff out so far it has also shown itself willing to
hidden weapons. All this puts an enor- give the United Nations both time and
mous weight on whether Hans Blix, the space to make up its mind.
chief UN inspector, chooses to dwell It seems clear to us that the United
on Iraqi resistance or points to areas of Nations should enforce its own orders
cooperation. The inspectors should and make Iraq disarm, even if that renever
be purin the position of deciding
international foreign policy. quires force. But in thè end, sometime
While "the possibility of Saddam ex- in March, the United States may have
periencing a' last-minute' conversion to ~ecide whether'it should do the job
seems minuscule, there is one quick, on 1tsown.
. high purpose, their support for this
way to' test whether it's possible. Iraq' When that ,happens, the arguments particular fight is thin as a wafer and
has Al Sainoud-2 missiles, weapons it' on both sides are sure to be couched in based on misapprehension that Iraq is
built at great expense and effort. Blix ' the highest' nioralprinciples. But the clearly linked to terrorism.
has already stated that they exceed the real calculations will be entirely about Our overriding concern is that the
limits the United Nations placed on 'the odds of succeeding. If military vic- United States is, and seems likely to remain,
a nation whose military might
Iraq after the Gulf War. On Friday, Blix tory over Iraq is swift, and if it can be
told the Iraqis to destroy them.
accomplished without extensive casu-
This week the United Nations should a!t!es to American sol~iers or Iraqi ci- '
tell Saddam he must let the inspectors Vlhans or damage to ne1ghboring counwatch
him get rid ofhis missiles imme- tries or thearea's oil fields Bush's
diately, or outside forces will do it for popularity will soar.' If oc~pation
him, with the support of the interna- forces unearth proof of a large nuclear
tional community. That clear message program, stockpiles of terrifying biowould
resolve the most frustrating logical weapons and real evidence of
problem for those who want the United serious collusion between Saddam
Nations to nail down its position as the' Hussein and international terrorists
arbiter of world crises - how to get many of the international leaders wh~
France and its supporters to define are riding the crest of anti-Americantheir
own bottom line rather than ism now will start looking very foolish.
simply criticizing Washington's. But ~ings could go terribly wrong,
Saddam Hussein is nobody's hero in very qwckly. The war could be brutal
this story. Although many Americans and protracted, especially ifSaddam
are puzzled about why the administra- unleashes biologicalor chemical
tion chose to pick this fight now, it's not weapons against Israel or American'
surprising that in the wake of Sept. n, troops. He mayalso succeed in setting
President George w.' Bush would want fir~ to h~ oil wells, o~disab~ing those in
to make the world safer, and that one of ne1ghbonng countnes, cnppling the
his top priorities Would be eliminating world economy. And if he is destroyed,
Iraq's ability to create biological, chem- there is every possibility of a vic10us
ical and nuclear weapons. Of all the stru~le for the lucrative sp.oils among
military powers in the world, Iraq is the the dlSparate clans and ethmc groups in
Iraq, drawing in Turkey, Iran and others.
In the chaos, the weapons of mass
destruction that Americans went to war
to eliminate could wind up being fer-
, ried out of Iraq and sold to the highest
terrorist bidder. And just as the Ameri-
, can military's presence in Saudi Arabia
during the Gulf War precipitated the
growth of Al Qileda and Sept. n, the
long-term occupation ofIraq will create
resentment in the Muslim world that
could lead to more, not less, terrorism.
Allthoserisks, we repeat, are worth
taking in the context of a broad international
coalition, and some might
even be diminished if the world acts togeth~r.
The United States is still traumatized
by the discovery on Sept. n,
2001, that we live in a world of unimaginable
danger. Some of America's traditional
allies knew that already, from
long and terrible experience. Some are
still trying to face up to it. But the rational
response is to work together to
make the world safer, not to ignore obvious
dangers in hope that the likely ,
will not become inevitable.
Our own guess, when we calculate
, the odds in Iraq, is that the war is likely
to go well in the short run, but that the
, long run will be messy, difficult and
dangerous. IfAmerica acts virtuallyon '
its own, it is hard to imagine either the
Bush administration or the American
people having the staying power to
make things right. Washington may be
counting on Iraq's oil revenue to pay
for rebuilding the country after the
war, but the oil wells could be damaged
in the fighting. It seems certain that an
administration that will not give up tax
cuts to pay for the war itself is not going
to inflict economic pain at home to
pay for the cleanup. And while Americans
have always shown themselves
willing to risk anything, even their
own children, for a critical cause of
and economic power so outstrip any
other country that much of the world
.has begun comparing it to ancient
Rome. The test now is whether America
will find a new way to exercise its
, power in which leadership, self-disci-
,oline and concern for the common
good will outweigh its smaller impulses.
An invasion of Iraq that is not
supported by many traditional allies,
or those powers the United States
needs to be allied with in the best possible
future, will send a message that
Americans can do whatever they want.
But it is not going to make the rest of
the world want to root for America to
succeed. The real test of American
leadership is only incidentally about
Iraq. It is whether the United States
will further split the world into squabbling
camps, united only by their jealousy
of American power, or use its influence
to unite the world around a
shared vision of progress, human
rights and mutual responsibility.
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