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Revue de Presse-Press Revie.w-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Özeti Iraq's Saddam Hussein: He Never Went Away Los Angeles TiJ!lj!S . January 24, 2001 By GRAHAM E. FULLER George W. Bush must now figure out how to succeed in Iraq where his father failed in 1991.Saddam Hussein, whom former President Bush failed to topple, is still the most vicious and dangerous leader anywhere in the world today. The bad news is that it is probably too late for the new administration to effect genuine change in Iraq at a price the United States is willing to pay. .' What might have been possible even five years ago is no longer possible today. Hussein is stronger both politically and militarily than he has ever been since the Gulf War, and he is pumping oil once again. The sanctions have lost nearly all international support and are perceived to have caused widespread suffering, especially upon children. Anti-Western feeling in Iraq has never been higher. Meanwhile, the international scene has shifted dramatically against U.S. policy. Sanctions are violated regularly. The French, Russians and many Arab states now operate flights into Baghdad .. Weapons inspection regimes are over. Except for Kuwait, no Gulf state has the stomach for further sanctions, and they are increasingly uncomfortable with U.S. military missions over Iraq. Even the British now suggest that they are about to back off from supporting any more "no-fly zones" in southern Iraq, the sole part of the country where serious anti-regime operations occur. The Kurds in the north have long since lost faith in the ability of the U.S. to protect their autonomous region over the long run and have reestablished serious working relations with Hussein as insurance. Meanwhile, the Arab-Israeli peace process has collapsed, and anti-American feeling is running high in the Arab world. The Palestinians, embittered by their own impotence, revere any Arab leader with the guts to stand up to the U.S. and Israel. Other Arab autocrats fear their own populace and have little stomach for supporting what they see as unpopular U.S. adventurism against an over-demonized Arab strongman. The people of the region now range from cool to hostile toward any U.S. military presence on their shores. The U.S. presence in the Gulf is resented at a time when the U.S. needs Gulf goodwill in an environment of high oil prices. Everybody knows that Hussein is vicious, but they will no longer lend support to bringing him down. More to the point, except for Kuwait, they do not feel iinminently threatened. Over the past decade, despite elaborate plans, Clinton policies have succeeded only in containing Hussein, denying him the chance to unleash campaigns of intimidation or war against yet more neighbors. His development of nuclear weapons has been severely retarded but not definitively terminated. This modest but significant holding operation may be the best we can hope for. All else has failed. The new Bush team inherits a mess while holding virtually no cards. As repugnant as it is to contemplate, U.S. policy now must come to terms with the reality of Hussein's presence--until some Iraqi eliminates him. The U.S. is not going to invade I!aq. Coup plans have repeatedly foundered and are discredited; opposition groups are divided and penetrated. Radio broadcasts and opposition pinpricks are to no avail. A seriously armed opposition army in the north requires full Turkish cooperation, which will not be forthcoming. All Bush can do at this point is to maintain consensus on blocking the sale of war materiel to Iraq. More important, when signs of production and deployment of nuclear weapons are clear, Washington must be prepared to take unilateral action to eliminate them ..And can, or will, Washington even protect the Kurds if Hussein marches against theminside his own country? Thatis the reallitmus test. To build a more serious anti-Iraqi coalition requires near Herculean change in our Middle East policy: adoption of new policies perceived to be truly balanced in the peace process;. a peace process shared at the internationallevel with the EU and the U.N.; improving ties with Iran, a state that can seriously influence events in Iraq and the Gulf; gradual steps toward building a Gulf security forum and a willingness to listen to--not just lecture--regionalleaders on what should be done regarding Hussein. After all, U.S. concerns about Hussein cannot be more vital than those of the people who live next to him. Graham E. Fuller Is a Former Vice Chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA 100
Revue de Presse-Press Revit;W-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti January 24, 2001 ByREUTERS Iraq Dismisses U.S. Neport Over Arms As Groundless BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq on Wednesday dismissed as groundless a New York Tunes report that it was still capable of manufacturing weapons of mass destruction. '. "Iraq does not possess any weapons of mass destruction or have any capability to manufacture them," INA quoted Husam Muhainmed Ameen, the Director-General of the National Monitoring Department, as saying. "The defunct (UN) Special Commission knows this fact very well because it supervised the destruction of the equipment and buildings which had escaped destruction during the 3O-state aggression," Ameen said, referring to the 1991 U.s.-led Gulf War to oust Iraqi forces from Kuwait "The Commission also knows that Iraq has met all the requirements of destruction including unjust ones and sacrificed many of the buildings and equipment for which there was 'no scientific or technical justification for destroying them," he said. Iraq was responding to a New York Tun.es report that Iraq had rebuilt three factories in an industrial complex west of Baghdad which had been closely monitored by U.N. weapons inspectors on suspicion of producing chemical and biological agents. The newspaper said the factories were so-called "dual use" plants manufacturing products for civilian use but also capable of producing vital compounds and toxins for weapons. The U.S. and British statements were written in the conditional tense, reflecting concern that since the U.N. inspectors left Iraq in December 1998, the international community has no way of verifying such suspicions. Ameen said the installations which the New York Tunes referred to were of civilian nature without the capacity to carry out chemical and biological activities. "It has become clear that installations which they are trying to portray as factories of weapons of mass destruction are in fact. civilian installations that produce clùoride for water treatment and agricultural pesticides," he said. Ameen added that the "allegations and claims they are trying to circulate lack hard evidence and are no more than a fabricated suspicion based on flimsy probabilities." "The allegations ...refleet frustration and bankruptcy suffered by some American departments," he said, .. .. .. .. .. Turkey launches huge security sweep BBC -25 January, 2001, 01:53 GMT Turkish Interior Minister Saadettin Tantan has flown to the south-eastem city of Diyarbakir to oversee the investigation into an armed attack which killed the provincial police chief and five of his colleagues. A massive security operation has been launched in the wake of the attack, in which grenades and automatic wea- - pons were used against police chief Gaffar Okkan's convoy. No group has said it was responsible, but the BBC cor- . respondent in Turkey says initial suspicion has fallen on a radical Islamic group known as Turkish Hizbollah. Hundreds of alleged members of the organisation were arrested last year in nationwide operations, but there had been reports that it was trying to regroup. Mr Okkan spearheaded a crackdown against the group last year, and is said to have been on the group's death list. TV footage of the incident showed the car's shattered windows and at least one body lying on the ground beside it. One of the assailants was also reported injured in the attack. Alleged links to state If confirmed, this would be the first time that Hizbollah has killed a Turkish official. So far it has targeted opponents like the Marxist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Hizbollah is held responsible for several hundred killings over the last decade. Its aim, the authorities say, is to establish a strict Islamic state. But a major police operation against Hizbollah last year led to the arrest of hundreds of its members. Scores of bodies of presumed victims of the group were found in dungeons throughout the country. There are also allegations that the group was originally linked to state security forces, who were fighting against Kurdish rebels. Paradoxically, many of Hizbollah's victims were perceived as enemies of the state themselves. Diyarbakir was previously at the centre of a conflict with Kurdish separatist rebels. But the rebels say they have abandoned their armed struggle for self-rule and since 1999 fighting there has dwindled. 101
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