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arrested and tried for war crimes if they do.
Although it rarely says so out loud, the
Administration intends to kill Saddam-or
capture him, if it must. Some In the Arab
world say it might not be so easy: his inner
circle will protect him, knowing they either
hang together or hang separately. But others
say if Baghdad falls, someone close to
Saddarri could step in to finish him off. In
the end, Saddam could very well elude all
his enemies thanks to his doubles, his secret
hideaways and his nomadic way oflife.
51FSADDAM DOES GO, WHAT
BECOMES OF IRAQ? .
TARGET A recent satellite.
image of Baghdad with a suspect
presidential palace silhouetted in red at left
will bloom in Iraq as soon as the shooting
stops. "In other times, the world saw how
the U.S. dpfeated fierce enemies, then
helped rebuild their countries," he said,
calling to mind the wondrous effect of the
Marshall Plan in Europe. The U.S., says
Cheney, will shape an Iraq "that is democratic
and pluralistic, a nation where the
human rights of every ethnic and religious
group are recognized and respected."Yet
Washington sometimes gives the impression
that it isn't much worried what the
next government will look like. Asked by
TIMEabout the shambolic state of the Iraqi
opposition, a senior Administration official
replied, "Personally, I don't care."
But the U.S. will have to care. Iraq has
no expe'rience with democracy and no
cohesive society. The ,country has been
dominated by Sunni Muslims, a minority,
since well before the monarchy fell in
1958; meanwhile, the Kurds in the north
and the majority Shi'ites mainly in the
south have long sought autonomy, if not
outright. independence. The opposition
in exile is an unruly assortment of factions
with different objectives, rival
patrons and geographically separate constituencies
back home. There is no readymade
unifying figure whom the U.S. can
install and no prescription for power
sharing amorig the factions. Arab leaders
are worried that ineffectual nation build~
ing would encourage separation into warring
zones such as the enclaves that tore
up Lebanon for 15 years.
Iraq's neighbors are
just as petrified that a
post-Saddam Iraq will.
fly apart. The Kurds,
now virtually autonomous
under the protection
of U.S. and
British jets, trouble
Turkey. That faithful
U.S. ally has its own
restive population of
Kurds, which Ankara
fears might be attracted
to join an
independent Kurdistan.
At the same
time, Iran might see
an opportunity to
make league with
Iraq's 64% Shi'ite
population in the
south, especially
since that territory is home to the holy
cities of Karbala and Najaf.
To ward off such consequences, the
U.S. needs the sticking power for a long,
rough occupation. That will almost certainly
require stationing upwards of 50,000
troops in Iraq, as well as billions of dollars
for reconstruction. Critics point to Washington'
s historical fickleness when it comes
to nation building. "Is America going to sit
,in Baghdad for five years to rebuild institutions?"
asks a gulf diplomat. ''Washington
won't have the stomach for it."
6
WILL THE MiDDlE EAST BE
BmER OFFOR WORSE?
WHENEVER THE U.S. INTERVENES IN THE
Middle East, it's warned of the dangers of
Arab reaction. The Administration seems
. tp shrug that off. There were dire predictions
that the Arab street would explode
during ~e first Gulf War and during the
Afghan campaign, but it didn't, really, in
either case. Still, diplomats and leaders
in the Middle East say it would be wise
to take such possibilities into account.
There's anxiety that a war would unite
Arab nations against the U.S., especially in
an atmosphere charged by the unresolved
Palestinian crisis. Bombing, refugees and
casualties will fill Arab television screens
in a way that was not possible 11 years
ago, when networks like. al-]azeera did
not exist. Some in the Administration, for
their part, think that a democratic Iraq
would act as a beacon of stability to the
Middle East. The gravest concern in Arab
capitals is that Israel will step in. Israeli
Prime Minister Ariel ShaI;on has made no
secret of his readiness to hit back if Iraq
strikes his country. That would "Zionize"
the war and perhaps broaden it to the
whole region.
7
WHAT WOULD OSAMA BIN
LADEN MAKE OF ALL THIS?
TOPPLING SADOAM WILL l'!OT HAVE THE
same.effect on al-Qaeda as ousting the Taliban
from Afghanistan. But the Adminis- '
tration argues that Saddam's departure
will deprive terrorists of a potential source
of unconventional weapons. Others think
terrorists might more readily pick up the
stuff amid the chaos of war.
The Vice President has suggested that
a successful strike against Saddam would
discourage Arab zealots from embracing
terrorism: "When the gravest of threats
are eliminated, the freedom-loving peoples
of the region will have a chance to
promote the values that can bring lasting
peace," he said. But images of Americans
killing Iraqis, say expertslike Daniel
Benjamin, a former National Security
Council adviser on terrorism,' might "further
the jihadist cause" by "confirming bin
Laden's argument that the U.S. is at war
with Islam." The first Gulf War, he adds,
"was a catalytic event for the Islamists
who formed' al-Qaeda" because it stationed
U.S. troops permanently on sacred
Islamic soil. .
One side argues this war could stanch
terrorism, while another. argues it could
breed it. The debate is abstract for now. But
it is better to havé it, with all of its frustrating
hypotheticals, than to leave things unsaid.
Bush may have handled the doubters
masterfully so far. But he may find he needs
thelll-and everyone else-in his comer if
the war turns ugly:
-Repotted by
Masslmo Calabresl, John F. Dickerson and Douglas
WaUer/Washlngton a".d Scott Macl.eod/Calro
.'
TIME, OCTOBER 14, 2002
66