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Bush aides split on calls. for a
provisional regime in Iraq
By James Dao and Eric Schmitt
The New York TImes
WASHINGTON: The Bush administration
is considering plans to create a
provisional government for Iraq that
could provide a base for opposition to
President Saddam Hussein and form
the core of a new government ifSaddam
is deposed, senior administration officials
said.
But .the proposal, which is being
pushed by several Iraqi exile groups,
has received mixed reaction inside the
administration. It has strong support
among aides to Vice President Dick
Cheney and top Pentagon officials, who
want to incorporate it into invasion
plans. But the State pepartment and the
CIA have been cool to the idea.
One proposal calls for American
troops to seize and defend territory inside
Iraq where exile groups could set .
up an interim capital before or durilig
an invasion to topple Saddam. The proponents
of the idea contend that creating
an alternative government on Iraqi
territory _would encourage military
commanders an~ government officials
to break with Saddam during the initial
phases of an attack. That, they contend,
could hasten the collapse of the Baghdad
government.
"It's like the role of the French resis- .
tance during Worl4 War II." an Iraqi opposition
leader said. "The United States
stood up De Gaulle, gave him a PR role,
gave him credibility, and helped estab- .
lish a government the French people
could rally around."
But senior officials in the State Department
and CIA oppose the idea. They
maintain that the administration should .
encourage a homegrown leadership, not .
impose one. Creating a provisional gov- :
ernment would give the exile groups a .
head start in controlling the country's
oil wealth, èausing bitter resentment and
perhaps even civil war, they contend.
"The idea of a provisIOnal central
government is just a power grab, as far
as I can see," said a persoIi involved in
State Department planning for a post- .
Saddam government.
The differences over a provisional
government exemplify a rift on Iraq
policy that has. bedeviled the administration
of President George W. Bush for
months and disrllpted planning for reconstructing
Iraq if Saddam is deposed,
Iraq specialists and exile leaders say.
Hawks close to the Pentagon blame
the disruptionS on the State Department.
asserting that the agency has been slow
to plan for a post-Saddam government
because it dislikes the exile groups, particularly
the Iraqi National Congress.
. But State Department officials contend
that it has been difficult to plan for
a new government because it has not
been clear - and is still not clear, they
say - how Saddam may be deposed.
.Planning for all those contingencies is
complex and has only recently begun,
the officials said.
. "In the end, it's Dot going to be a
made-iIi-Washington blueprint," the senior
official said. "Will we parachute in
our government-in-exile and say, 'Here
are your ilew rulers,' " the official asked.
"Let's be realistic. People who are inside
Iraq are going to decide Iraq's future."
An alternative to the provisional government
plan circulating in the State Department
calls for creating an interim
council representing Iraqis from both inside
and outside the country thatcould
help gujde reconstruction. But under
that plan, the central government - and
particularly the oil industry - would be
. administered by the United Nations and
the U.S.militaryuntil a democratic government
was created, a process that
could take years, officials said.
."Oil is key to holding the country.together,"
said a person involved in planning
for a post-Saddam Iraq.
To encourage planning by the Iraqi
opposition, the State Department has
begun bringing together Iraqi political
leaders and intellectuals to develop position
papers on a range of topics, including
democratic institutions, the judiciary,
the media, water and
agriculture, oil, health care, education
and public finance. .
.But many Iraqi opposition leaders deride
the effort as an academic exercise.
Washington should be helping to organize
and preparing to recognize a provisional
government that can take power
the moment Baghdad falls, they contend.
They want the administration to endorse
a provisional government before a
. conference of opposition groups that
may take place in Brussels this month.
The Pentagoilbas been developing its
own plans for Iraq following an invasion.
They include maintaining a large multinational
army in Iraq for at least a year
to track down and eliminate Iraq's
clandestine weapons programs, ensure
stability and deal with potential problems
in providing assistance to civilians.
In northern Iraq, military forces
would probably protect the oil fields
around Kirkuk and Mosul to prevent
rival groups from trying to seize thein. .
The largest foreign presence would
likely be in the central part of the country
around Baghdad, Saddain's power.
base. In addition to military security
forces, thousands of military civil affairs
specialists, familiar with the lin~
guistic and cultural differences within .
Iraq, would probably be deployed
throughout the country, officials said.
As Congress pushed toward a vote on
a resolution authorizing militaryaction
in Iraq, two of the Senate's most outspoken
critics of the Bush administration's
Iraq policy - both prominent Vietnam
War veterans - announced for
the first time their support for allowipg
the use of force. .
. .
In back-to-back speeches Wednesday,
Senators John Kerry, Democrat of
Massachusetts, and Chuck Hagel, Republican
of Nebraska, said they .had
come to their decisions after the administration
agreed to pursue diplomatic
solutions and work with the United Nations
to forestall a possible invasion.
"I will vote yes," said Kerry, a possible
presidential candidàte in 2004, "be- .
cause on the question of how best to .
hold Saddam Hussein ac.countable, the
administration, including the president;
recognizes that war must be our
last option to address this threat, not.
the first, and that we should be acting in
concert with allies around the globe to
make the world's case against Saddam.
Hussein."
Hagel said the administration should
not interpret his support as an endorse~
ment of the use of preemptive force to
press ideological disagreements. .
"Actions in Iraq must come in the
context of an American-led, multilateral
approach to disarmament," he said,
"not as the first case for a new American
doctrine involving the pre-emptive
use offorce."
Friday, October n, 2002
45