Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê.,..RivistaStampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Özeti
Although the main Kurdish factions have.bent to US pressure, there is little sign that the Bush administration plans to use
the 30,000 or so combined Kurdish troopsto act as a ground force in the event of an assault on the Baghdad regime.
Diplomats say the US has no wish to see the Kurds move just a short distance south and take the oil rich towns of Mosul
and Kirkuk. Nonetheless, there are indications that the Kurds will attempt to do just that if they can reach a power-sharing
agreement. This is turn has prompted widespread speculation in Arvil that Turkish government forces would intervene
to secure Mosul, which historically have had a large Turkman population. Turkish troops already have bases just
inside northern Iraq and support from proxy Turkman forces in Arvil. "The battle for Kirkuk will be no less bloody thàn
the war in Baghdad," .commented an Ininian analyst in Tehran with close ties to the government. Iran's defence minister
has stated, however, that Iranian forces have no intension of crossing the boarder, which would risk sparking US retaliation.
The parliamentary building in Arbil has been spruced up with fresh coats of paint and new panes of glass~Yellow ribbons
were cut on Thursday to celebrate the inauguration of a closed circuit television system and the broadcasting of proceedings.
As one delegate commented: "Weare waiting, like everyone else, for the attack on Baghdad. It's not iß our interests
to have an independent state now. Everyone around us is terrified of that. But who knows in the future."
Oct 3rd 2002
The Economist By Amberin Zaman
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Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds : Allies from hell
AS 1RE American administration accelerates its efforts to drum up international support to unseat Saddam Hussein, it
faces open dissent from two of its most prized, and most mutually hostile, allies: Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds. With tension
growing between the two, American officials are trying to find a magic formula to satisfy their irreconcilable
demands. Turkey, declaring that It will not take part in any operation against Iraq that could"result in the creation of an
independent state for that country's 3.5m or so Kurds, has vowed to intervene militarily should the Iraqi Kurds make any
move in that direction. No matter that the Kurds themselves say they understand that independence is not a realistic ambition.
Turkeyalso says that it is equally opposed to the establishment of the federal zone within a united Iraq that the Iraqi
Kurds insist is their right, and that they are demanding in exchange for their support for. anAmerican-led operation.
Turkey fears that a federal arrangement would lead to similar demands not just from its {)wn 12m-odd Kurds, but also
from Iran's 6m. It would, suggests a Turkish diplomat, "create an inextinguishable inferno of regional chaos and instability."
Turkey has economic worries as well. Tariq Aziz, Iraq's deputy prime minister, was in Ankara this week. He ;'eminded
his Turkish hosts that, sh,ould war break out, Turkey's wobbly economy would be shaken by the loss of ~aqi business.
Trade between the two has climbed back to its pre-Gulf war level of $1 billion a year.
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The dilemma for America is that, in a war, help would be needed from both Turkey and the Kurds. Turkish bases are nece~sary
for bombing raids, and the 50,000 fighters under Iraqi-Kurdish control would be useful in overthrowing Ml' Hussein.
And if American troops were to be deployed in Kurdish territory, they would need to come through Turkey. The Iraqi
Kurds are adamant that Turkish forces themselves should not take part in any operation, if for no other reason than that
the presence of Turks would invite Iranian intervention. They are even threatening, as a last resort, to cut a deal with Mr
Hussein should the Americans ignore their demands. Taha Yassin Ramadan, Iraq's deputy president, told a visiting group
of Turkish journalists last month that the Iraqi people would fight alongside "our Kurdish brothers" to keep Turkish forces
out of their country.
Ml' Ramadan was responding to a claim, made last month by Turkey's defence minister, Sabahattin Cakmakoglu, that
Kirkuk, Iraq's main oil-producing region and an erstwhile part of the Ottoman empire, was historically part of Turkey.
Kirkuk,which is now under Baghdad's control, is intended by Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani, the two Kurdish leaders
who have been running northern Iraq since the end of the Gulf war, to be the çapital of their proposed federal state.
Kirkuk, declared Mr Barzani, could become "a graveyard for Turkish troops just as it had been for Ottoman forces".
Ml' Barzani and Mr Talabani are old enemies. But this week they came together to agree on a new draft constitutiàr, tetheir
envisaged "zone", and the Kurdish regional parliament is due.to reconvene on October 4th for thefirst time since
1994. This new-found unity is deeply disturbing to the Kurds' regional foesIraq, Turkey and Iranwhich for decades backed
one Kurdish faction against the other to keep the Kurds weak and divided. Indeed, not so long ago, the Turks and Ml'
Barzani, whose Kurdistan Democratic Party controls Iraq's 700km (450-mile) border with Turkey, were the besi:of friends.
Aided by Mr Barzani's fighters, Turkish troops would wade into northern Iraq to hunt down separz.tis' Turkish Kurd rebels
in their mountain hideouts.
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