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u.S. Offers Russia a Satellite Deal iflt
Halts Missile Technology to Iran
By Michael ~. Gordon
New York Times Service
MOSCOW - The United States is
offering Russia the opportunity to expand
its lucrative busin~ss of launching
foreign satellites if it clamps down on the
sale of missile technology to Iran, senior
American officials say.
The American position has been conveyed
confidentially to the Russians and
is part of a broad effort. to discourage
Russian companies and institutes from
helping Iran develop a new surface-to-
&urfacemissile. .
The offer is potentially worth hundreds
of millions of dollars to Russian
companies and the Western companies
that have formed partnerships with
them. .
Washington has long been worried
~bout Russian nuclear. cooperation with
Iràn. But more recently the United States
has also become concerned about Iran's
effort to develop missiles that could
carry a nuclear warhead, poison gas or
germ weapons.
The nuclear and missile issues are on
the a~enda of this week's meetings in
Washmgton between Vice'President Al
Gore arid Prime Minister Viktor
Chemomyrdin of Russia.
Iran has been developing a new missile,
called the Shahab 3, that has a range
of about 800 miles (1,300 kilometers) -
long enough to reach Israel and Saudi
Arabia and more than twice the range of
a Scud missile.
American intelligence experts expect
Iran to flight-test the missile in the next
year or so. Although much of the missile
design is based on North Korean technology,
American officials have become
increasingly worried about the flow of
missile technology from Russia. Under
strong American pressure, the Russians
have taken a number of steps, including
a new decree by President Boris Yeltsin
:tightening controls on the export of missile
know-how to Iran.
. But American officials are waiting to '
see. if the Russians strictly enforce the
measure.
_Ifthe Russians do crack down, Washmgton
is willing to ease limits on Russia's
.launchin~' of ioreign 'satellites,
.Amencan offICIals say.
"This is not a carrot that is being
created for this issue, " said an American
specialist, who like some of the others
willi1.l~ to discuss the issue, spoke on
condItIon of anonymity.
"The idea of allowing more launches
is something that makes commercial'
sense, unless something disturbs the at-
!D0sphere and makes it difficult to do. If
Iran did not exist, it is something that
would probably proceed."
Many of the satellites launched are
American, and the United States already
has an agreement that permits a limited
number of Russian launches;
Certainly ,the easing of the limitscould
be a major boost for Russia's hardstrapped
space program and a boon for the
~~rican companies, which have begun
toJO~ forces WIththe Russians in offering
servIces to launch communications imaging
and navigational satellites. '
"The increase of the quota is an important
and necessary issue for us "Y uri
Koptev, the director of t)1eRussi~ space
agency and the official in charge of
preventing sales of missile technology to
Iran, said in an interview.
. "It ~snot ~>Dlya problem for Russia, it
I~also m the mterest of American compames.
We know that on Feb. 5, the main
manufacturers contacted Mr. Gore with a
proposal.to abolish these restrictions. ' ,
Charles Vick, a research analyst at the
Federation of American Scientists, es-
.timated that the cost of each satellite
launch could range from $80 million to
$100 million.
"There would be more missions,
. more contracts, and it would really help
, the U.S; balance of payments as well as
provide more money for the Russian
economy," Mr. Vick said of the pro-
.posed deal. ' .'
Still, given the political sensitivity of
. the Iran issue and uncertainty about Russia's
enforcement of its new technology
controls, lifting the restriction will not be
quick or easy.
''To encourage Moscow to act, American
officials have been sharing intel~
ligence with it about suspected Russian
deals with Iran.
, Rooêrt Gallucci,' the .former senior
official. who helped resolve the stalemate'over
North Korea's suspected nu- .
clear program, was recently appointed a
special administration envoy to Russia
On the missile technology issue and vis-
. ited Moscow last week. .
Responding to American concerns,
Russia has expelled an Iranian diplomat
who was trying to purchase missile technology.
It has also suspended a contract
between a Russian r(,eket engine manufacturer
and Iran.
But there have been allegations that
Iranian missile scientists are still being .
trained by the Baltic State Technical Uni-,
versity in St. Petersburg.
And while Mr. Yeltsin ordered the,
tightening of export controls, ~he Rus,-'
sian bureaucracy has riot always effec.
tively carried out his orders.
"They have taken a number of important
steps, but the issue now is implementation,"
a senior American official
said.
Russia's recently ~isclosed plans to
increase the number of nuclear reactors
it plans to sell to Iran have also clouded
the picture.
Russian officials insist, however, that
they are cracking down. .
"The 13 cases which our American
colleagues have so nicely informed us of
have been considered, and we have
provided detailed explanations," Mr.
Koptev said. "In the cases where we saw
some doubtful aspects, these contacts
were severed."
Both sides have been careful not to
link the question of raising the space
launch quota publicly with the Iran issue,
though privately officials on both
sides acknowledge the questions are
bound together. .
Mr. Koptev said the Americans had
not made an "official" proposal to ease
the quota on launchers in return for
Russian cooperation on Iran.
But he quickly added: "I take dinner
conversations very calmly, and I don'.t
consider it an official discussion. "
. The Clinton administration, for its
part, appears to bè concerned with avoiding
the Impression that it is rewarding the
Russians for good behavior.
,'The Russians understand a lot about
the American political system and they
know that some steps are easier when
relations are good and harder when they
aren't,~' an.American expert said.
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PUBLlSM,..n ""TH THK /IIkW voa .. TtMtlI "NP THil. .'''"lNCTOI\i "lI'T
MARCH 10, 1998
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