Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Özeti
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE, FRIDAY, MARCH 21, 1997
r U.S. Is Said toBe Reviewing It;-i
'Containment' Policy on Iran
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By Jo~pHFitchett
InternalioNJl H~rald Tribune ,
Makers of foreign policy in the Clinton
administration are engaged in discussif>ns
about future stability in the
Gulf and specifically on possible
changes itl U.S. policy toward Iran, according
to fonner U.S. officials and
cabinet-level figures in Arab governments.
This top-level discussion about longtenn
options concernin~ Tehran appears
to have put a new policy overlay on a
question that until recently dominated
U.S. thinking about Iran: whether the
United States will respond militarily if
Tehran turns dut to be implicated in the
Khobar Tower bombing laSt June in
Saudi Arabia that killed 19 U.S. Air
Force personnel.
Declining detailed comment on the
subject as "too sensitive for discussion,
" a White House source said that
the stakes in the Gulf were "so hiBb for
U.S. J?Olicythat we are going to manage
that situation at our own pace and on our
owncue."
Any hint of reopening U.S. policy
toward Iran, traditionally the dominant
power in the Gulf, is controversial in
Washington, where the regime.remains
a pariah 18 years after the ayatollahs
seized power.
U.S. attitudes toward Iran preoccupy
not only neighboring Saudi Arabia but
also European govemrnents because of
the Gulfs strategic importance.
While academics have suggested in
recent months that Iran may be losing its'
zeal to destabilize its neighbors, it is
only now that the Clinton administration'
s inner circle on strategic issues
seems to be re-examining U.S. options
to see ifthere is an alternative to its Gulf
policy of "dual containment" - in
effect, treating both Iraq and Iran as
pariah states.
~'It's a posture, not a policy," Zbigèiow'
BlUzinski, a fonner national security
adviser, said about the U.S. position,
adding that it did not allow for
lUly evolution in Tehran's attitudes or
behavior.
Now there is "deliberation" about
'Iran in Washington among a small circle
of officials, Mr. Brzezinski said this
week in Paris. He said he assumed the
U.S. goal was to see if there were
grounds for a gradual convergence oi
views, perhaps over a decade,about the
need for regional stability in the Gulf.
A possible new horizon for relations.
severa) officials said, could take the
fonn of a common Western position
offerin~ Tehran the prospect of slowly
expanding economic ties, if Iran were
willing td respect a general code of
peaceful co-existence, espeçially with
its oil-rich Arab neighbors in the Gulf.
To forge a common Western front,
the United States would have to pledge
not to escalate its economic pressure
into an all-out attempt to isolate Iran,
while Gennany, France and Italy would
agree not to expand their busiflCJSsdeal-,
ings with Tehran.
That Western line could then be adjusted
over the years in conjunction with
Iranian actions, diplomats said.
This approach would fit a widely
noticed comment by: Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright during her recent
visit to Paris when she suggested that
the United States and Europe together
try to find a joint approach to Iran.
She said that Europe and the United
States had failed with their respective
policies of critical dialogue and critical
silence toward Iran.
Economically, Iran has been crippled
by the U.S. trade embargo, which was
,recently strengthened by a controversial
law calling for U.S. sanctions against
foreign oil companies that make major
investments in Iraniatl energy development.
Enou~ countries, including Russia,
trade With Iran to keep the economy
fuDctiWlio&
But 'the fimemay bè approaching
when the Tehran regime, faced with a
credible Western array of carrots and
sticks, might be ready to ex~lore formulas
for co-existence with. ItS neighbors
and the West, according to U.S. and
Arab officials.
To allow time for Washington to explore
these possibilities, the Saudi au~
thorities appear to have put of~ again
their report on the Khobar bombmg.
The report could create political pressures
by absolving Iran or offering con~
clusions that called for swift U.S. ac.
tions.
Already, Iran has threatened violent
reprisals against Saudi Arabia and
Bahrain if the United States strikes Iranian
targets, according to officials from
both Arab countries,
But U.S. officials recently denied any
preparations for :punitive air strik~s,
callingthe reports Iranian disinforination
designed to unsettle Arab governments.
After consultations in Washington
and European capitals, Saudi Arabia'~
defense minister, Prince Sultan ibn Abdulaziz,
said last week that the inves~
tigation needed to beextended.
At the time ofhis visit, a White House
official said that Washington had no
intention of being stampeded into action
"by a single report written by a third
government" - àreference to the
Saudi Arabian report.
With the I,(hobar bombing. now
nearly a year old, the possibility of
military reprisals, reportedly under consideration
last fall, seems to have been
folded into a larger effort by the Clinton
administration to find a way around the
dual-containment impasse.
Mr. Brzezinski said U.S. policymakers
have scant room for maneuver
because of congressional concerns
about Iran's interest in nuclear weapons
and terrorism and because of the apparent
lack of unified political authority
mlqo.
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