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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Özeti
Iranians Should Set Out Quicklyon the Long
--EHRAN - Euphoria over
By Philip Bowrin~ -Ro-a-d-toReform
T -
the reformist landslide in
last -month's legislative elections
must soon make way for
somè harsher realities. That is
not 10 diminish the importance
of Iran's effort to combine democracy
and a market economy
with its Islamic identity. The
momentum is so strong that optimism
is justifiable. But the
political and economic challenges
ahead are formidable.
The frrst unknown is the real
character of the newly elected
Parliament. The "reformist"
coalition of factions covers a
wide spectrum of demands for
change - ranging from liberal
clerics to young technocrats,
old quasi-secular leftists and
assorted intellectuals.
- In the broadest terms, they
have been elected to help President
Mohammed Khatami
pUllh Itlrough his reform
agenda. frustrated by the previous
Parliament, of advancing
a law-based civil society in
which individuals gain power at
the expense of both church and
state. But it remains to be seen
how cohesive they are and
whether on specific issues they
-frustrate the executive. -
The, old left is suspicious of
economic reforms such as privatization,
reduction Of sùbsidies
and a welcome to foreign
, investment, which are generally
favored ~y the moderate conservatives
led by former President
Hashemi Rafsaniani. He
fared badly in the election because
of association with more
conservative clerics, but he remains
a powerful force.
He continues to head the Expediency
Council, which per"__
forms a key role in balancing
the views of Parliament and of
the Guardian Council, the cler- \
ie-dominated body which determines
whether laws are constitutional
and Islamic, and'vets
candidates for elected office.
, Parliament is likely to focus
frrst on social and political issues,
on which it may prove'
more radical in its demands foi,
change than Mr. Khatami, who
seeks gradual, consensus-driven
change, wants. If it tries to
force the pace, it could provoke
a ,rightist backlash, or at least
prevent the emersence of a con-,
sensus on economic issues.
More use of clergy courts to jail
reformers is quite possible.
Conservatives, behind Supreme
Leader Sayed Ali
Khamenei, will be sure to use
the. levers of p6wer that they
control - the Guardian Council,
~e judiciary, the military,
speCial courts etc. Iran's convoluted
~onstitution gives entrenched
mterests (economic as
well a~.clerical) plenty of opportumtles
to frustrate change.
'
They cannot do so indefin- -
itely. Cons~r:vative domination
of the Guardian Council will be
diluted by this election. Next
year Mr. Khatami will be up for
re-election, and the following
year will come the turn of the
mostly clerical Assembly of
Experts, which is supposed to
supervise the supreme leader.
The constitution can be
changed by referendum. So constitutional
means are available
to shift Iran from clerical domination
to a more liberal as well
as democratic Ishimic republic
in which religious observances
are a matter of free will, not state
imposition, and the supreme
leader is more a symbol than a
wielder of power. But it will
take time and patience.
Time, however, is not entirely
on the side of an Iran in
which 55 percent of the pop~
ulation is under 21 and the labor
force is growing at nearly 4
percent a year. Social freedoms
may satisfy the middle classes,
but lower-income youths need
jobs if drug abuse and urban
crime are not to keep growing.
The economy hasbeen growing
more slowly than the population,
inflation is at 20 to 30
percent, industry is mostly government-owned
and inefficient,
the currency bounces in a confusion
of exchange rates. A
large chunk of the economy is in
the hands of religious foundations
that have become a gravy
train for the new elite.
Official policy is to privatize,
allow foreign investment, cut
subsidies that cause government
deficits and inflation, reform
the price structure and unify
the exchange rate. But implementation
has been painfully
slow and it remains to be seen
whether, with Parliàment at its
back, the executive can make
these things happen.
There are plenty of parallels"
including China and India, to
suggest that changing these
structures is a long haul.
Iran has the advantage for
now of a recovery in the oil
price and a surge of foreign
interest in investing in a country
~f 60 million people with good
mfrastructure, good educational
standards and a strategic geographical
position. ,
It has overseas an educated
-well-off expatriate community
3 million or so strong,' tens of
thousands of whom would return
if social conditions were
relaxed and private sector economic
opportunities were greater.
Money and people are trickling
back, but Iran needs a flood
of it, plus domestic economic'
reform, if it is to make the economic
progress it needs to underpin
its political advance.
For now, Mr. Khatami probably
has the prestige to define
the course of reform, overruling
socialists and nationalists in the'
reform camp, but he will need to
move fast.
Internatiollul Hel'l/ld Tribulle,
_Islam Needs Models of Homegrown Democracy
STOCKHOLM' - The vic- - -" - - th
tory of reformists in the elec- By Bengt Save-Soderbergh a way at ~espon~. to conterntiOMin
Iranhas f(X:usedattention
porary socI~1 realities, are the
on àn important trend: the slow ' most Muslim countries, poet's spiritual'and ethical rather than ones ~ost likely to be strong,
,~ut steady spread' of democracy voices can still be silenced when .a legislative role in determining dynarmc forc~s.
ln the Islamic world. Alongside they 'Yrite poems deemed to the course of development. For ~e extreffilsm that has char-
Iran we see democratic evolution have contradicted the Koran.,' believers, this means accepting ac~r.lzed some recent forms of
of differing kinds in a number of Newspaperll are censored. The, that the social and political as- pohtlcal Islam ca~'be seen as a
predominantly Muslim countries
including Thrke M '
challenge is to engender acceptance
()fthe principle that artists,.
pects of the Koran's teaching
can and should be inteIJ1i'eted
res~olnbsleto lt!t~falllUre0lfother
aval a e po Itlca mo e d s. ,
and indonesia. y, orocco 'intellectuals arid political oppo- ' according to contemporary so- Tw.o decade~ on from Iran's
Important challenges lie 'nents of the authorities have the cial needs and imperatives. Isl~ rr'0lut~on, many ordin-
,ahead"however: right to express themselves It would not be the frrst time ~ ~s lffiS .ave come full
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cratic practices and respect for Mushm countries there is a the role'Öf religion in politics. to kOhtlcs, Simply does not
the basic tenets of Islam. Thi1i pressing need to reform legal During- the Middle Ages, the wor, and they use the ballot
applies from anchoring the rule, frameworks that deny women Isl~ic' wQrld"experi~nced a . bo~ to express S~PP?rt for the
,of law and politiçal institution full and equal rights, in the scientific andculturalflowerlng optl,n of modermzatlon., .
building to constitutional devel- 'workplace as much as in the that left a permanent imprint on . ~at form t!t at , m