Changement climatique - CNRS
Changement climatique - CNRS
Changement climatique - CNRS
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Phenofit<br />
Comparaison de prédictions de PHENOFIT et d’un modèle<br />
de niche<br />
Morin & Thuiller Ecology 2009<br />
Log(%Extinctions)<br />
A2<br />
B2<br />
Same trend but…<br />
•1) quantitative difference<br />
= greater variation in NB model<br />
•2) qualitative difference<br />
= not nested predictions<br />
%Extinctions<br />
Scenarios<br />
A2<br />
B2<br />
n=16<br />
1<br />
Niche-based<br />
Phenofit<br />
34 %<br />
22 %<br />
31 %<br />
19 %<br />
Niche-based model<br />
A2<br />
B2<br />
2<br />
%Extinctions NB model also predicted by Phenofit<br />
%Extinctions Phenofit also predicted by NB model<br />
26 %<br />
62 %<br />
15 %<br />
45 %
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