제약/바이오 업종 2011년 Outlook - Mirae asset

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신지원, Analyst, 3774 2176 jwshin@miraeasset.com 동아제약 23 November 2010 우윤철, Analyst, 3774 6934 davis.woo@miraeasset.com 000640 KS Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (KRWm) Dec-08A Dec-09A Dec-10E Dec-11E Dec-12E Revenue 702,316 Cost of goods sold (259,186) Gross profit 443,130 SG and A (361,422) Op profit 81,708 Op EBITDA 100,828 Depreciation (17,964) Amortisation (1,156) Op EBIT 81,708 Net interest (10,170) Associates and JCEs (2,304) Other income 1,773 Net exceptional income - Profit before tax 71,007 Tax (27,632) Post-tax profit 43,375 Minorities Preferred dividends - Net income 43,375 Norm profit 43,375 Dividends (7,579) Retained earnings 35,796 Source: C ompany data, Mirae A sset Research estimates Cashflow 801,060 (323,171) 477,890 (385,964) 91,925 116,521 (23,598) (998) 91,925 (12,470) 7,503 (1,864) - 85,094 (21,831) 63,263 - 63,263 63,263 (8,984) 54,279 851,416 (345,955) 505,461 (394,130) 111,331 149,376 (36,941) (1,104) 111,331 (9,180) 13,771 (9,693) - 106,228 (23,609) 82,619 - 82,619 82,619 (10,182) 72,437 923,742 (358,915) 564,828 (437,284) 127,543 169,523 (40,918) (1,062) 127,543 (1,624) 4,900 1,954 - 132,774 (34,687) 98,087 - 98,087 98,087 (11,380) 86,707 1,043,776 (403,696) 640,081 (498,552) 141,529 186,346 (43,757) (1,060) 141,529 (75) 3,998 1,059 - 146,510 (38,276) 108,234 - 108,234 108,234 (12,578) 95,656 (KRWm) Dec-08A Dec-09A Dec-10E Dec-11E Dec-12E Op EBITDA 100,828 Decrease in working capital (29,713) Other operating cashflow 23,348 Operating cashflow 94,463 Tax paid (27,632) Net interest (10,170) Dividends received (3,412) Cashflow 53,249 Capital expenditure (67,666) Net acquisitions - Net investments (710) Other investing cashflow (5,002) Investing cashflow (73,378) Dividends paid (7,538) Increase in equity - Increase in debt 69,685 Other financing cashflow (49,451) Financing cash flow 12,695 Beginning cash 55,476 Total cash generated Forex effects (7,433) Ending cash 48,043 Source: C ompany data, Mirae A sset Research estimates 116,521 7,003 114,462 237,986 (21,831) (12,470) (113,758) 89,927 (70,461) - (2,868) (21,685) (95,014) (7,579) - 51,931 (41,802) 2,550 48,043 (2,538) 45,505 149,376 (837) (12,236) 136,302 (23,609) (9,180) (4,347) 99,165 (86,102) - - - (86,102) (8,984) 46,740 - 101,670 139,426 45,505 152,490 197,995 169,523 (7,651) 1,963 163,835 (34,687) (1,624) (4,153) 123,371 (76,364) - - - (76,364) (10,182) - - - (10,182) 197,995 36,826 234,821 186,346 (19,529) 1,068 167,885 (38,276) (75) (4,717) 124,817 (55,072) - - - (55,072) (11,380) - - - (11,380) 234,821 58,365 293,186 46
신지원, Analyst, 3774 2176 jwshin@miraeasset.com 동아제약 23 November 2010 우윤철, Analyst, 3774 6934 davis.woo@miraeasset.com 000640 KS Balance Sheet (KRWm) Dec-08A Dec-09A Dec-10E Dec-11E Dec-12E Current assets 292,704 Cash and equivalents 48,043 Receivables 122,960 Inventories 109,005 Other current assets 12,695 Non current assets 438,911 Net operating fixed assets 285,796 Interest in associates 113,759 Other non-current ssets 39,356 Total assets 731,615 Current liabilities 249,134 Payables 29,901 ST debt 133,831 Other current liabilities 85,402 Total non-current liabilities 132,271 LT debt 101,596 Other non-current liabilities 30,674 Total liabilities 381,404 Issued capital 51,265 Share premium reserve 107,980 Reserves/Adjustments - Retained earnings 212,851 Minorities - Other equity (21,885) Shareholders' equity Source: C ompany data, Mirae A sset Research estimates 350,211 Key Ratios 294,691 45,505 121,456 118,249 9,481 705,344 447,398 235,020 22,926 1,000,035 316,017 30,834 189,187 95,996 103,949 56,309 47,640 419,966 52,280 113,722 - 268,168 - 145,899 580,069 462,244 197,995 129,090 125,683 9,476 771,519 495,566 253,138 22,815 1,233,763 330,242 32,772 189,187 108,283 103,957 56,309 47,648 434,199 99,020 215,393 - 339,252 - 145,899 799,563 520,739 234,821 140,056 136,359 9,502 814,956 529,955 262,191 22,810 1,335,695 344,261 35,556 189,187 119,518 103,966 56,309 47,657 448,227 99,020 215,393 - 427,157 - 145,899 887,468 615,066 293,186 158,256 154,078 9,546 833,926 540,162 270,906 22,859 1,448,992 360,695 40,177 189,187 131,331 103,976 56,309 47,667 464,671 99,020 215,393 - 524,010 - 145,899 984,322 Dec-08A Dec-09A Dec-10E Dec-11E Dec-12E Turnover growth 10.4% 14.1% 6.3% 8.5% 13.0% Gross profit growth 14.7% 7.8% 5.8% 11.7% 13.3% Operating profit growth 12.8% 12.5% 21.1% 14.6% 11.0% EBITDA growth 35.5% 21.8% 25.6% 14.9% 8.5% EPS growth NA 45.8% 30.1% 18.7% 10.3% Norm BPS growth 10.6% 16.6% 50.0% 13.4% 13.1% Gross margin 63.1% 59.7% 59.4% 61.1% 61.3% Operating margin 11.6% 11.5% 13.1% 13.8% 13.6% EBITDA margin 14.3% 15.2% 18.0% 19.1% 18.3% EBIT margin 11.6% 12.2% 13.6% 14.5% 14.0% Net income margin 6.2% 7.9% 9.7% 10.6% 10.4% ROE 12.2% 15.7% 15.2% 14.1% 13.7% ROA 6.19% 7.31% 7.40% 7.63% 7.77% Net debt/equity 53.5% 34.5% 5.9% 1.2% (4.8%) Interest cover ratio 6.22 5.92 7.19 9.99 11.09 Dividend payout ratio 17.5% 14.2% 12.3% 11.6% 11.6% Inventory days 153.9 133.6 132.6 138.7 139.7 Account receivable days 64.08 55.34 55.34 55.34 55.49 Account payable days 42.22 34.83 34.58 36.16 36.43 Reported EPS (KRW) 4,084 5,952 7,747 9,197 10,149 EPS (KRW) 4,084 5,952 7,747 9,197 10,149 Reported BPS (KRW) 35,033 40,850 61,291 69,533 78,614 Norm BPS (KRW) 35,033 40,850 61,291 69,533 78,614 DPS (KRW) 750 750 950 1,150 1,350 Cashflow per share (KRW) 5,014 8,461 9,298 11,568 11,703 Reported P/E (x) 28.65 19.66 15.10 12.72 11.53 Norm P/E (x) 28.65 19.66 15.10 12.72 11.53 P/B (x) 3.34 2.86 1.91 1.68 1.49 P/CF 23.34 13.83 12.58 10.11 10.00 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.34 6.12 5.18 4.55 4.09 EV/Operating Cashflow (x) 10.98 3.14 5.84 4.90 4.66 EV/Sales (x) 1.48 0.93 0.93 0.87 0.75 Dividend yield 0.64% 0.64% 0.81% 0.98% 1.15% Source: C ompany data, Mirae A sset Research estimates 47
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