Impact de la libéralisation commerciale sur le marché du ... - Femise

econometric modeling built on the basis of data compiled at the enterprise level.
The results obtained through this approach, that directly identifies the behavior of
firms, will be confronted with those that emerge from the general equilibrium
analysis.
The two modeling approaches, whether that of general equilibrium or that which is
based on enterprise data, should be preceded by a detailed reading of the data
available on market opening in connection with employment and wages at the
macroeconomic or firm levels. The objective is to identify the most significant
stylized facts on more than two decades of foreign trade reform.
To this end, Morocco has conducted two surveys on the industrial sector (FACS-
Morocco study published in 2000 and ICA study published in 2005), in addition to
data collected annually by the Ministry of Trade and Industry from the players of
the sector who provide relevant data for such an evaluation. Tunisia also has a
database for its industry similar to the Moroccan one.
The comparative analysis of data from these various sources aims to highlight the
adjustments made in terms of employment and wages in order to cope with changes
in the competitive environment both in the internal and external markets. In
addition to the importance of the conclusions that can be drawn, this analysis will
serve as a basis for the modeling approach to better guide the simulations to be
done as part of the general equilibrium study or the estimates of player’s behavior
approach.
This study comes in four chapters. The first chapter describes the various stages
of trade liberalization initiated in Morocco since the early eighties and which was
intensified gradually with adhesion to the WTO and the entry into force of the
association agreement with the European Union and later the free-trade agreements
with the United States and some Arab countries.
The dynamics of trade liberalization in Morocco have led to a significant change in
the level of effective protection whose evolution over the past few years is subject
to a fairly detailed analysis at the conclusion of this chapter.
The second chapter is dedicated to a study on labor market transformations over
the past two decades. By analyzing the factors involved in the evolution of this
market, both in terms of supply and demand, this chapter focuses on the
identification of the ongoing restructuring related to the process of trade
liberalization which affects the structure of employment by qualification and salary
FEM31-21R – executive summary