Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

REVUE DE PRESSE-PRESS REVIEW-BERHEVOKA ÇAPÊ-RMSTA STAMPA-DENTRO DE LA PRENSA-BASIN ÖZETÎ
166
Turkey's Water Resources
and Middle East Peace
The peace accord signed between Israel and
the Palestinian liberation Organization (PLO)
on Sept. 13 is promising a new balance of
politics in the Middle East.
It is true that there are still a number of uncertainties
about the successful implementation of Palestinian
self-rule in the Gaza strip and Jericho and generally
about the future of the entire peace process.
However, the European Community (EC) has already
taken some initiative to support a lasting peace
between the parties. Many countries of the West -except
the United States -- have refrained from investing
in the region, keeping in mind the past oil
crises of the 1970s.
Oil has been the main economic resource of the
Middle East since the 1920s, following the exploration
of the first oil fields. Gulf countries fortunate
enough to have oil became some of the richest countries
in the world. Some spent their money fQr
more power, like Iraq, and experienced disappointment.
Some spend it for the luxury of the ruling
dynasty.
Water has been the least abundant vital economic
resource of the region because of a lack of ri-
.vers and lakes.
Water demand of the Middle East: In the
1920s, the population in the Middle East was estimated
to be between 40 and 50 million. The population
in the region increased to 150 million by the
1950s, 270 million by 1980 and 327 million by
1987. According to estimates, it will increase to 453
million by the year 2000 and to 702 million in 2020.
It's not only the population that has increased in the
Middle East. Seyfi Ta~han, head of.the Turkish Foreign
Policy Institute points out that industrialization
and urbanization in the region are on the rise as
well. Only 30 percent of the population of the Middle
East lived in urban areas in the 1930s. In 1990s
it's 45 percent. (In Turkey it's 55 percent, according
to the 1990 census.)
More pcpulation means more peopleto feed.
Grain production in the region in the 1950s was 25
million tons. In 1980s it was 60 million tons. But in
the 1980s, grain consumption in the Middle East
was 87 million tons; 27 million tons of grain were
imported to feedthe rapidly increasing population.
In rural areas, water consumption per person is
20 liters per di:iy. In urban areas, it's 10 times more:
200 liters per day per person.
The Middle East desperately needs water, and
Turkey has it.
Turkey has the water: That explains why Turkey
was included in the regional water committee of
the Middle East"peace negotiations.
~rurkish Probe September 21, 1993
The Euphrates and Tigris rivers -- which represent
only one fourth of Turkey's water capacity -means
almost everything to Syria and is very important
to Iraq.
Syria -- a major party in the Arab-Israeli conflict -relies
mainly on the Euphrates for its energy and
agricultural production. By losing the Golan Heights
to Israel, Syria also lost Lake Tabaria, which used
to be an important water resource for it.
The main reason Syria shelters .the headquarters
of the secessionist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK),
which aims at carving out a portion of Turkey for a
Kurdish state, is to get maximum water out of the
Euphrates. And Syria wants to secure that source
before Turkey starts operating its giant Southeast
Anatolia Project (GAP), which would make Turkey
the major producer of food and energy in the region.
Despite a protocol signed in 1987 between the
two countries that said Turkey would release 500
cubic meters of water per second on a yearly basis
and Syria would prohibit activities of the PKK, the
situation has not changed much since than. Iraq is
in an easier position because the Tigris floWS directly
into Iraq without passing through Syria. And
also, because of the rough terrain, Turkey cannot
build too many irrigation dams on the part of the
Tigris that runs through it. Other water sources owned
by Turkey and of interest Middle Eastern countries
are its rivers flowing to the Mediterranean. The
especially high-flowing rivers of Ceyhan and Seyhan
flow into the sea in Çukurova, very near the
Syrian border. The late president Turgut Özal of
Turkey raised the idea of selling the waters of those
rivers to countries in the Middle East, in need of water,
via a pipeline. Such a pipeline would be constructed
through Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia
and then to other Gulf countries. An extension
would take water to Israel, too. Inspired by the economical
interdependence theory, Özal had called
this the "Peace Water Project," hoping for support
from international investors and particularly from the
oil-rich Arab countries.
The rich Arab countries did not find the project
attractive, because they did not want their water
supply to be dependent on Israel, Syria and Turkey.
Producing potable water in their desalinization
plants was, and is, safer in political terms, if not
cheaper.
The sudden agitation of the Turkish press for the
Peace Water Project, following the promising
events in the Middle East peace process, seems
not to have any basis.in reality yet. But it's very evident
that Turkey holds the key to the future needs
of the Middle East, with or without peace and with
or without oil. •