Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris
Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris
Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris
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REVUE DE PRESSE-PRESS REVlEW-BERHEVOKA ÇAPÊ-RwISTA STAMPA-DENTRO DE LA PRENSA-BASIN ÖZETÎ<br />
Turkish Probe September 7, 1993<br />
Belations With Syria Frail as Ever<br />
A<br />
news item last week proved again just how<br />
tenuous and full of mutual suspicion the relationship<br />
b<strong>et</strong>ween Turkey and Syria is, and<br />
how little has changed as far as the basic subjects<br />
governing this relationship are concerned.<br />
Mehm<strong>et</strong> Ali Birand, a leading TV personality and<br />
journalist writing mostlyon foreign policy in the<br />
mass circulation Sabah, indicated in a piece he<br />
wrote that Prime Minister Tansu Çiller was preparing<br />
to send an envoy secr<strong>et</strong>ly to Damascus on a<br />
"carrot or stick mission."<br />
What Birand was saying was that the government<br />
had <strong>de</strong>ci<strong>de</strong>d to g<strong>et</strong> tough with Syria for its continued<br />
support for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers'<br />
Party (PKK), and was, to this end, going to offer<br />
Damascus "the hand of positive cooperation" if it<br />
would stop giving this support.<br />
Damascus was also to be told that if this support<br />
was not halted, then Turkey, which has been suffering<br />
increasingly from the terrorist attacks of the<br />
PKK, would not hesitate to bomb PKK camps in Lebanon's<br />
notorious Syrian-controlled Bekaa valley.<br />
Birand, who is known for his close ties with official<br />
circles, did not say who this envoy would be and<br />
when he would be traveling. But he suggested that<br />
this message would be given to the Syrian lea<strong>de</strong>rship<br />
soon.<br />
Sources close to Foreign Minister Hikm<strong>et</strong> Ç<strong>et</strong>in<br />
said later that the minister was not aware of any<br />
such initiative, and therefore contacted the prime<br />
minister immediately to find out what was going on.<br />
Çiller reportedly said she also did not know what<br />
the news item was referring to. Her chief advisor,<br />
Volkan Vural, issued a statement later that day saying<br />
Turkey did not plan to bomb the Bekaa.<br />
Wh<strong>et</strong>her there was truth to Birand's story and the<br />
government buried the plan as soon as it was out of<br />
the bag or wh<strong>et</strong>her Birand's story was based on misinformation<br />
is not clear. But if it was misinformation,<br />
it was well-placed and hit its mark by bringing<br />
the subject of Syrian help for the PKK, and the need<br />
for some kind of r<strong>et</strong>aliatory step by Turkey, back<br />
on the public's agenda.<br />
The fact remains that, while <strong>de</strong>nying the Sabah<br />
story, the government still took the opportunity -- as<br />
it always does -- to express what it expects from<br />
Syria vis-a-vis the PKK camps in the Bekaa, and to<br />
raise the question of Abdullah Öcalan, the lea<strong>de</strong>r of<br />
the PKK who is allowed to keep a flat in Damascus.<br />
The Syrians, no fools in the game of diplomacy, for<br />
their part continue to make it known through various<br />
channels that they are holding the "PKK card"<br />
against the threat that Turkey will some day cut the<br />
waters of the Euphrates river to me<strong>et</strong> the needs of<br />
its massive Southeastern Anatolia Project, known<br />
as GAP. What the Syrian si<strong>de</strong> wants is to codify a<br />
1987 protocol, signed during the visit of late Presi<strong>de</strong>nt<br />
Turgut Özal to Damascus when he was still<br />
prime minister.<br />
That protocol committed Turkey to giving a<br />
monthly average of 500 cubic m<strong>et</strong>ers a second of<br />
water from the Euphrates to Syria. Apart from a<br />
month during which work was un<strong>de</strong>rway on one of<br />
the stages of filling the Atatürk Dam, the main dam<br />
within GAP, Turkey has on the whole honored this<br />
commitment.<br />
However Syria, for whom water is as valuable as<br />
oil because of the country's parched landscape,<br />
wants this commitment to be increased in cubic m<strong>et</strong>ers,<br />
and enshrined in a long-term agreement.<br />
The message seems to be that, until that time,<br />
the PKK trump card will be available for use against<br />
Turkey to gain concessions on water.<br />
Foreign Minister Hikm<strong>et</strong> Ç<strong>et</strong>in told the private TV<br />
channel ATV last week that the basic problem b<strong>et</strong>ween<br />
the two countries arose because Syria links<br />
water and the PKK, som<strong>et</strong>hing that is totally unacceptable<br />
for Ankara.<br />
In other words, the situation appears to be a kind<br />
of stalemate, fed by suspicions resulting from a lack<br />
of dialogue geared to establishing joint projects,<br />
wh<strong>et</strong>her these be in irrigation, electrification or otherwise.<br />
But while the basic param<strong>et</strong>ers of relations b<strong>et</strong>ween<br />
Turkey and Syria have not changed much since<br />
the mid 1980s, the regional environment in which<br />
both countries are caught has changed in a manner<br />
that affects them both very seriously.<br />
Thé number one issue at the present time for the<br />
Syrian lea<strong>de</strong>rship is not the water issue but the course<br />
the Middle East peace process is taking.<br />
This lea<strong>de</strong>rship is also alert to the fact that Syria<br />
is enjoying the privilege of being a country that is<br />
consi<strong>de</strong>red by the West, which it ultimately looks up<br />
to, as a legitimate player in the international game.<br />
This privilege was a reward for Syria's role in the<br />
international coalition against Iraq, and came opportunely<br />
for Syria as it was rapidly losing its patron,<br />
the Sovi<strong>et</strong> Union -- its safeguard against the U.S.<br />
backing Israel during the Cold War.<br />
The trump card for Turkey lies precisely in Syrian<br />
insecurity and its need, as a small nation, to find<br />
bigger nations to lean on for security.<br />
Syria today is increasingly leaning on the West,<br />
and this is imposing on it the need to respect the requirements<br />
of the West's phobia against terrorism<br />
and countries supporting it. This gives an opportunity<br />
to Turkey to continue pressuring Syria on the<br />
PKK issue. But in doing so, if Ankara can also offer<br />
new options on the water issue that are mutually<br />
satisfying, it could help in eliminating suspicion on<br />
both si<strong>de</strong>s.•<br />
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