1957 - United Nations Statistics Division

year of 1.0 per 1,000 births for males and 0.8 per 1,000
for females. Post-neo-natal mortality (1-11 months)
showed a net annual decline of 1.9 for males and 1.5 for
females. These figures confirm the impression that neonatal
mortality has probably reached almost a minimum
level under present circumstances in countries of low
over-all infant mortality and is becoming more difficult
to reduce. To decrease it still further, that is, to approach
the success achieved in saving lives in early infancy, appears
to demand new techniques.
Mortality past infancy
The inadequacies of the crude death rate for analysing
changes in mortality have been set forth on p. 2. It was
also noted in that section that according to the crude
death rate, mortality had declined in all parts of the
world - especially during the last decade - and appears
to be continuing to decrease. To see whether these declines
occurred throughout the age span or whether they
reflect a combination of increasing mortality at some ages
and decreases at others, the age specific death rates from
Table 11 (p. 288) have been studied; these are the deaths
in each age group per 1,000 population of the same age.
First, it must be emphasized that age specific death rates
are available for far fewer countries than are the crude
rates. Statistics of deaths classified by age, together with
a corresponding population for computing the specific
rates, are not so widely available as are the total deaths
and population. Further, to study a change over time,
two sets of rates are required, separated by at least 5
years. Rates by age for a year around 1948 and also for a
current year are available for a maximum of 29 population
groups and, with the exception of China (Taiwan),
Japan, Israel, and Cyprus, these refer to countries of
Europe, North America, and Oceania. For this reason,
the following analysis of age as a factor in declining
mortality cannot be interpreted on an international basis.
It reflects only the experience of this rather limited group
of areas for which data are available.
To get an over-all picture of what has occurred during
the past decade at each age group, the arithmetic mean
of the age-specific death rates for a group of countries
has been computed for the latest year (1955 or 1956)
and for the earlier period (1948 or 1949). These means
refer to different numbers of countries, ranging from 17
which had rates for age 80-84 to 29 with rates for age
groups 5-9 and 10-14. The mean rates are set forth in
Table F.
It will be apparent that absolute decreases have occurred
in the rates at every age, except the terminal group
of 85 and over, but the relative significance of these
tends to be reduced with advancing age. It is true that
the reliability of age-specific death rates decreases in the
upper ages, not only because of the smaller numbers involved,
but also because of deficiencies in age reporting
both at the population census and in death registration.
Nevertheless, it appears clear from Table F that mortality
has not been declining at the upper end of the age span,
that is, above 50-55 years of age, as fast as it has at earlier
ages.
Net decreases were greatest in age group 10-14, where
a decline of 55% was observed between 1948 and 1956.
10
Table F. Mean of death rates specific for age, both sexes:
varying number of countries, circa 1948 and 1956
Age
Average rates Change 1948-1956
Circa 1948 Circa 1956 Absolute Per cent
-----
Under 1 year•••••• "57.5 "40.6 -16.9 -29
1-4.............. 5.8 3.6 -2.2 -38
5-9.............. 1.3 0.8 -0.5 -38
10-14............ 1.1 0.5 -0.6 -55
15-19............ 1.8 1.0 -0.8 -44
20-24............ 2.6 1.4 -1.2 -46
25-29............ 2.7 1.6 -1.1 -41
30-34............ 3.0 1.8 -1.2 -40
35-39.......•.... 3.6 2.5 -1.1 -31
40-44............ 4.9 3.5 -1.4 -29
45-49............ 6.9 5.5 -1.4 -20
50-54............ 10.2 8.6 -1.6 -16
55-59............ 14.6 13.3 -1.3 -9
60-64............ 23.4 21.1 -2.3 -10
65-69............ 34.3 32.8 -1.5 -4
70-74............ 53.7 50.9 -2.8 -5
75-79............ 83.1 82.2 -0.9 -1
80-84............ 135.0 134.8 -0.2 -0.14
85 and over••••••. 231.4 262.9 +31.5 +14
" Infant mortality rotes. Age-speciAc death rates for this age group were 60.1
and 44 respectively.
Death rates at age 20-24 also were cut almost in half.
But at ages over 55, decreases dropped well below 10%.
These age differentials in declines will be set forth in
more detail below.
Childhood mortality (1-4 years)
Current death rates specific for ages 1-4 years are available
for some 86 countries and territories. If rates for
these areas are arranged in rank order, it will be seen
that they range from 0.9 per 1,000 population in Northern
Ireland to 49.7 in Egypt - a span of about 50 points.
Other countries with high rates are Algeria, Mexico, E1
Salvador, the Federation of Malaya, and some of the
Caribbean islands.
The median rate for deaths 1-4 years of age was 5 per
1,000 among the 86 countries for which data are available,
and two thirds of the rates fall below ten. As would be
expected, the lowest rates are found in countries of
Western Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, while the
highest risk of death at this age is in Africa, Latin America,
and Asia.
Since 1948, rates of mortality at age 1-4 have fallen in
every country and territory for which reliable information
is available. Declines over this past decade have
amounted on the average to almost a 40% drop. They
have varied from an annual average per cent decrease of
0.02 in West Berlin, where the rate was already 2.1 per
1,000 population, to 2.4% in China (Taiwan), where
the rate fell from 24 per 1,000 to 9.9 in 6 years. If the
rate for Taiwan is omitted from the array, the average
decline in the rate was 0.2 per year.
School age (5-9 and 10-14)
These two age groups, which cover roughly the school
child, have the lowest death rates recorded in the entire
age span. Of the two, death rates at age 10-14 are the
lower, averaging 0.6 per 1,000 among 29 countries as