1957 - United Nations Statistics Division

Tropical and Southern Africa region. The world death
rate of 18 is made up of regional rates which vary from
9 per 1,000 in the USSR, Oceania, and North America to
33 in Tropical and Southern Africa. This pattern of
variation by regions is reflected also in the rates of population
increase, the largest percentage increases having
occurred in Middle America (2.7%), South West Asia
(2.5%) , and South America (2.4%).
The rates of population growth mentioned above have
been brought about almost entirely by a decline in the
death rate, rather than by an increase in the birth rate.
This was demonstrated in Chapter I of the 1956 Demographic
Yearbook, where average birth and death rates
for the period 1945-49 were compared with those for
1950-54. 1 Birth rates showed no appreciable tendency to
decline during the 5-year period, the rates for 1950-54
clustering at the same levels as those for 1945-49. On the
other hand, in all but 3 areas for which data were available,
the death rates were lower in 1950-54 than they were
in the earlier period. As a result of this situation - a declining
death rate and a relatively stable birth ratepopulation
growth has been accelerated.
GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN MORTALITY
Crude death rates
Current levels
In using available vital statistics to measure geographic
variation, two points must be noted. First, countries for
which statistics are available are not necessarily representative
of the whole and, secondly, extreme observations
tend to occur in small geographic entities. However, because
the crude death rate is the only index of mortality
available for a number of countries where vital statistics
are not well developed and because for many areas it is the
only measure able to be computed for a span of years, it
must be employed - despite its shortcomings - to demonstrate
geographic variability.
The major factor producing unreliability in mortality
statistics - both crude and specific - is, of course, underregistration
of deaths. Registration of death is a civil
affair. It is a well-known fact that in countries where civil
administration is not yet well developed, the requirements
or death registration, although theoretically obligatory,
are not well complied with. Moreover, in some
less well-developed areas, even the obligation may still
be lacking. It has generally been felt that deaths tended
to be more completely registered than births, due to the
requirements of the various sanitary codes and the need
for burial permits. There is no proof of this contention,
however, and fragmentary evidence is coming to light
which appears to refute it. 2
Another deficiency peculiar to the crude rate and one
which makes its use hazardous for evaluating geographic
variation must be emphasized. It is the fact that crude
rates are weighted averages of age specific rates. If one
1 Graphs Nos. 2 and 4, p. 5 and 7 respectively.
2 For more detailed discussion, see Chapter I of the 1956 Demographic
Yearbook. See also United Nations, Statistical Office, Handbook
of Vital Statistics Methods, document ST/STAT/SER.F/7,
April 1955, p. 207 (Sales No. 1955'xVII.l).
2
crude rate refers to a population with a high proportion
of older persons where mortality is normally high, while
another refers to a "young" population in which the
probability of death is lower, it is obvious that they will
not provide precise measures of the risk of dying in those
areas but rather they will reflect the age composition of
the populations involved. Even for evaluating changes
over time in the same population, an increase in the
median age at death may cause the crude rate to obscure
declines in mortality risk, while in one of decreasing
median age, the actual decline in mortality may be overstated
by changes in the crude rate. The effects of this
have been explored at length in the 1951 Demographic
Yearbook, Chapter I, where age-adjusted rates were
presented. The problem in general terms has also been
discussed in the Handbook of Vital Statistics Methods. 3
Despite their inherent limitations as analytical tools,
the 1956 crude death rates still exhibit a well-defined
variation. Current (1956) crude death rates have been
computed for 106 countries and territories throughout
the world (see Table 8, p. 186). This particular group of
countries accounts for an aggregate population of
1,139,500,000 which, in turn, constitutes 42% of the
1956 world total. The variation in this series is too marked
to be explained solely in terms of lack of comparability.
Even if non-representative rates for fragmentary ethnic
groups and those known to be more than 10% incomplete
are excluded, the range is from a low of 5.7 per 1,000 in
the Ryukyu Islands to a high of 19.8 in Guatemala. These
are set forth graphically in Chart I.
Only a few years ago, it was customary to say that crude
death rates below 10 per 1,000 were probably unreliable.
Chart I shows that in 1956, one half of the "complete"
rates, i.e., rates known to be at least 90% complete, were
below that level; since this level has been reached primarily
as a result of better public-health measures, improved
and more intensive medical-care programmes,
and new techniques of medicine and surgery, it may be
well to consider what the future might bring as these
benefits reach other parts of the world where death rates
as high as 32 per 1,000 have been estimated. These estimated
rates, which refer to various years, are the results
of sample inquiries, the analyses of census returns, or
pure guesses. They are set forth in Table B below.
Table B. Estimated death rates: 14 countries, latest available
year
From the array of registered rates which are assumed
3 Ibid., p. 195 If.
Country
Northern Rhodesia (indigenous) •••••••••••••••••
India ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Tanganyika. " ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Uganda••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Nigeria, Federation of••••••••••••••••••••••••
Belgian Congo (indigenous) ••••••••••••••••••••
Brazil (nationals) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Indonesia•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Ruanda-Urundi (indigenous)••••••••••••••••••••
Tunisia.....•........•.•.............•......
China, Mainland •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Southern Rhodesia (indigenous) •••••••••••••••••
Philippines••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Paraguay ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Year
1950
1950
1948
1948
1956
1953
1950
1954
1949
1956
1953
1950
1956
1950
Rate
32.2
27.4
25
25
23.6
21.3
20.6
20
19.8
17-19
17
12.6
11.6
10.6