TRANSICION ENERGETICA COLOMBIA BID-MINENERGIA-2403_2021

Anexo
PROLOGUE – COLOMBIA’S
ENERGY TRANSITION
Dr. Daniel Yergin
“Energy transition” has become the shorthand
for discussions about the future of energy, especially
since 195 countries pledged in the
2015 Paris climate agreement to keep global
temperatures from rising 2 degrees Celsius
above preindustrial temperatures and to make
best efforts to cap the rise at closer to 1.5 degrees.
The target for getting there has evolved
into the concept of “net zero carbon” by 2050
or shortly thereafter—a goal already adopted
by over 100 countries, including the United
States, China, the European Union, Britain and
Japan, among others. As much as two thirds
of global emissions – and roughly two thirds
of global gross domestic product – now originate
in countries with commitments to net
zero of varying degrees. As it progresses, energy
transition will transform the way the world
produces and uses energy, and the very nature
of important parts of the global economy.
The world’s two largest economies are now
committed. On his first day as president, Joe
Biden returned the United States to the Paris
Climate Accord that Donald Trump had abandoned.
And just a few months beforehand, China
had also committed itself to net-zero emissions
by 2060. In 2021, the foundations have
been set for a new superpower race for leading
roles in the global markets that is coming with
electric vehicles, solar and wind power, hydrogen
and technologies still to emerge. It will be
complicated by the overall change in relations
between the United States and China, which
leaves many other countries concerned about
being caught in the middle between the two
largest economies in the world.
The process of energy transition will create dilemmas
about the nature and pace of change.
The “What” – net zero carbon – may be clear.
The “How” – how to achieve it – is not at all
clear. Most nations pledged to net zero have
yet to adopt the laws and regulations to get
them there. But with the momentum building,
2021 may mark the beginning of a period of
accelerated change in energy and climate policies,
laws and regulations. And yet the process
of transforming a new climate framework into
investment, and new investments into changed
energy realities will likely take longer, be
more expensive, more complicated and contentious,
and will require more technical innovation
than many now anticipate. An almost
$90 trillion world economy depends on fossil
fuels for 80 percent of its energy, and oil and
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