Introducción a Series de Tiempo Univariadas - Centro Microdatos
Introducción a Series de Tiempo Univariadas - Centro Microdatos
Introducción a Series de Tiempo Univariadas - Centro Microdatos
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020000 40000 60000Introducción a <strong>Series</strong> <strong>de</strong> <strong>Tiempo</strong> <strong>Univariadas</strong>December 31, 20102000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1fechaObservadaSuavizadaComparemos ahora las predicciones realizada por los tres filtros:tssmooth hwinters sa_s3=sa, samp0(30) forecast(24)Optimal weights:alpha = 0.8271beta = 0.0063penalized sum-of-squared residuals = 2.64e+09sum-of-squared residuals = 2.64e+09root mean squared error = 4539.824tssmooth <strong>de</strong>xp sa_s4=sa, samp0(30) forecast(24)computing optimal double-exponential coefficient (0,1)optimal double-exponential coefficient = 0.3681sum-of-squared residuals = 3125155446root mean squared error = 4941.1817tssmooth exp sa_s5=sa, samp0(30) forecast(24)computing optimal exponential coefficient (0,1)optimal exponential coefficient = 0.8211sum-of-squared residuals = 2671721663root mean squared error = 4568.6787tsline sa_s5 sa_s4 sa_s3 , legend(label(1 "Exponencial simple") label(2"Exponencial doble") label(3 "Holt-Winters"))46