Año 2008 - Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos
Año 2008 - Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos
Año 2008 - Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos
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DEPARTAMENTO DE CIENCIAS DE LA ATMÓSFERA Y LOS OCÉANOS<br />
Experimento piloto <strong>de</strong> predicción <strong>de</strong>l tiempo a corto p<strong>la</strong>zo en <strong>la</strong> esca<strong>la</strong> <strong>de</strong> <strong>la</strong>s tormentas convectivas.<br />
Director: NICOLINI, Matil<strong>de</strong>.<br />
Codirector: No tiene.<br />
Integrantes: No tiene.<br />
Institución Otorgante: UBA.<br />
Código <strong>de</strong>l Proyecto: X159.<br />
Fondos Otorgados: $12.100.-<br />
Resumen: El objetivo <strong>de</strong> este proyecto es <strong>la</strong> predicción explícita <strong>de</strong>l tiempo en <strong>la</strong> esca<strong>la</strong> <strong>de</strong> <strong>la</strong>s tormentas con particu<strong>la</strong>r<br />
interés en <strong>la</strong> convección profunda. El diseño e implementación en tiempo real <strong>de</strong> un sistema <strong>de</strong> pronóstico en interacción<br />
con el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional se encara <strong>de</strong>s<strong>de</strong> dos metodologías distintas, <strong>la</strong> primera con un tratamiento<br />
<strong>de</strong>terminístico que utiliza un mo<strong>de</strong>lo no-hidrostático con un espaciamiento capaz <strong>de</strong> resolver <strong>la</strong>s tormentas mientras que<br />
<strong>la</strong> segunda utiliza un ensamble <strong>de</strong> pronósticos en re<strong>la</strong>tivamente más baja resolución permitiendo un enfoque<br />
probabilístico. Se propone investigar <strong>la</strong> efectividad <strong>de</strong> ambos enfoques utilizando distintos mo<strong>de</strong><strong>los</strong> y<br />
parametrizaciones físicas en eventos convectivos severos y distintas fuentes <strong>de</strong> información disponible en <strong>la</strong> región que<br />
permita seleccionar casos individuales y verificar con técnicas a<strong>de</strong>cuadas el <strong>de</strong>sempeño <strong>de</strong> <strong>los</strong> pronósticos <strong>de</strong> eventos<br />
altamente intermitentes. Se probarán en <strong>la</strong> región en baja resolución <strong>los</strong> umbrales o interva<strong>los</strong> <strong>de</strong> valores<br />
representativos <strong>de</strong> distintos parámetros <strong>de</strong> <strong>la</strong> mesoesca<strong>la</strong> efectivos como predictores <strong>de</strong> modos dinámicos o como<br />
indicadores <strong>de</strong>l <strong>de</strong>sarrollo <strong>de</strong> condiciones favorables o inhibidoras para <strong>la</strong> generación <strong>de</strong> fenómenos severos. Asimismo,<br />
se <strong>de</strong>terminarán <strong>los</strong> patrones sinópticos que acompañan a estos eventos y aquel<strong>los</strong> en <strong>los</strong> que <strong>los</strong> mo<strong>de</strong><strong>los</strong> manifiestan<br />
una mejor capacidad predictiva en <strong>la</strong> región.<br />
Nombre <strong>de</strong>l Proyecto 28:<br />
A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies on La P<strong>la</strong>ta<br />
Basin) of the 7th PCRDT of the European Union. <strong>2008</strong>-2012.<br />
Director: BOULANGER, Jean (Francia).<br />
Codirector: Rusticucci, Matil<strong>de</strong>.<br />
Penalba, O. ; Bettolli, M. Robledo, F. ; Tencer, B. ; Herrera, J y<br />
Integrantes:<br />
Zazulie, N.<br />
Institución Otorgante: Unión Europea. 7mo Programa Marco<br />
Código <strong>de</strong>l Proyecto: European Project CLARIS LPB FP7-ENV-2007-1<br />
RESUMEN: The CLARIS LPB Project aims at predicting the regional climate change impacts on La P<strong>la</strong>ta Basin (LPB) in<br />
South America, and at <strong>de</strong>signing adaptation strategies for <strong>la</strong>nd-use, agriculture, rural <strong>de</strong>velopment, hydropower<br />
production, river transportation, water resources and ecological systems in wet<strong>la</strong>nds. In or<strong>de</strong>r to reach such a goal, the<br />
project has been built on the following four major thrusts. First, improving the <strong>de</strong>scription and un<strong>de</strong>rstanding of <strong>de</strong>cadal<br />
climate variability is of prime importance for shortterm regional climate change projections (2010-2040). Second, a<br />
sound approach requires an ensemble of coordinated regional climate scenarios in or<strong>de</strong>r to quantify the amplitu<strong>de</strong> and<br />
sources of uncertainties in LPB future climate at two time horizons: 2010-2040 for adaptation strategies and 2070-2100<br />
for assessment of long-range impacts. Such coordination will allow to critically improve the prediction capacity of climate<br />
change and its impacts in the region. Third, adaptation strategies to regional scenarios of climate change impacts<br />
require a multi-disciplinary approach where all the regional components (climate, hydrology, <strong>la</strong>nd use, <strong>la</strong>nd cover,<br />
agriculture and <strong>de</strong>forestation) are addressed in a col<strong>la</strong>borative way. Feedbacks between the regional climate groups<br />
and the <strong>la</strong>nd use and hydrology groups will ensure to draw a first-or<strong>de</strong>r feedback of future <strong>la</strong>nd use and hydrology<br />
scenarios onto the future regional climate change. Fourth, stakehol<strong>de</strong>rs must be integrated in the <strong>de</strong>sign of adaptation<br />
strategies, ensuring their dissemination to public, private and governmental policy-makers. Finally, in continuity with the<br />
FP6 CLARIS Project, our project will put a special emphasis in forming young scientists in European institutes and in<br />
strengthening the col<strong>la</strong>borations between European and South American partners. The project is coordinated with the<br />
objectives of LPB, an international project on La P<strong>la</strong>ta Basin that has been endorsed by the CLIVAR and GEWEX Panels.<br />
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