CAMBIO CLIMATICO

REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA 2003
measures will achieve a reversal in the negative
impact of climate changes in tropical zones in the
case of highly adverse scenarios.
Regarding the adaptation of our forests, these
should be protected against indiscriminate
exploitation by developing reforestation plans
with scientific techniques that guarantee the
planting of new woodlands. In areas with the
most difficult conditions, it is advisable to
employ successive reforestation techniques.
Although it is not always economically justifiable,
one should keep in mind the possible use
of irrigation in forest areas, provided that the
availability of water allows it.
1.4.4 Health Sector
Regarding the annual behavior of malaria in the
country, as of 1965 there was a trend toward a
reduced number of cases that ended with the
close of the decade of the 70s. Later, an increase
in the number of cases was maintained at an
endemic plateau that has been evident for the
last 20 years. The pattern of malaria transmission
affects the same group of provinces, as
shown on the map for the period 1991-2000.
Two areas of the highest risk of transmission are
the Sub-region of Yuma in the East and the
Western Cibao Sub-region in the Northwest.
In the first, malaria transmission has been related
to the cultivation of sugar cane and the intensive
construction of tourist facilities, both of
which are linked to the strong migration of
workers, seasonally for sugar cane and in a concentrated
and explosive form for construction,
while in the Western Cibao it has been related to
the cultivation of rice, other agricultural crops,
and the temporary seasonal migration of the
labor force.
1.4.4.a) Impact of variability on the
behavior of diseases
For the study of seasonal patterns, the series
was subdivided into two sub-periods. One period
corresponds to the baseline (1988-1994) and the
other to current conditions (1995-2000), which
correspond to the changes observed in the seasonal
pattern and the trends discussed in the
preceding section.
The trends observed regarding malaria coincide
with the regional trends manifested in the climate,
which beginning in 1975 highlight
changes in precipitation patterns with a tendency
toward a decrease along with a slight variation
in humidity, as well a warming trend that,
although slight and not significant, has already
begun to show signs that the region is warming.
It is interesting to note that here there is no clear
evidence between outbreaks and ENSO event
conditions, since in 1999 there was an increase
and we were not under ENSO event conditions,
but under those of AENSO.
1.4.4.b) Effects of Climate Variability
on Diseases
The results achieved corroborate the hypothesis
that climate is a modifying factor in the epidemiological
patterns of malaria; in fact, it has been
changing them as the climate has changed in the
region, where the disease appears during periods
that are not very different from each other, with
high temperatures and trends toward increased
relative humidity as a result of the start of precipitation.
These conditions favor the proliferation of
pathogens in the appearance of epidemics.
1.4.4.c) Evaluation of Physical Impacts
There is scientific evidence that demonstrates
that the diseases studied in this evaluation are
susceptible to the effects of climate change
(Ortiz, 1995; Ortiz, 1996, CONAMA, CNCC, 1999;
IPK, 1999). Many of the biological organisms
and processes linked to the appearance of infectious
diseases are particularly influenced by
fluctuations in climate variables, especially temperature,
precipitation and humidity
(McMichael, A.J., and et al, 1996). The regional
climate change has altered the pattern in the
number of infectious diseases and of diseases
produced by food poisoning, among others.
48